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What will the Seattle Mariners Look Like This Time Next Year ?



The 2011 Mariners should have a vastly different feel then any of the teams that have been fielded in recent years.  With the majority of the Bavasi era mistakes banished from the roster GM Jack Zduriencik will be fielding a team almost completely of his own design.  I doubt the Mariners will be major players in a weak free agent market and they might abstain all together.  Without major changes the 2011 Mariners will have a very slim margin for era.  So, what will the Mariners look like at this point next season?

 

Line Up:

1. Ichiro RF: Ichiro is the rock of the Mariner's line up.  While Ichiro is loved by most there is a portion of the fan base that is still hasn't embraced the future hall of famer.  There are two sure things for Mariners Ichiro will hit lead off and he will get 200 hits.

2. Chone Figgins 3B:  Figgins has struggled a great deal this season and will be looking to come back strong next season.  Chone needs to be on base and causing havoc for the Mariners to be successful on offense.

3. Russell Branyan/Milton Bradley DH:  The combination of Branyan and Bradley might not be the most fearsome pair but they certainly are better option then the duo of Griffey and Sweeney.  At the very least the team should be able to reduce their budget for arthritis cream by 10%.

4. Justin Smoak 1B: While it may be premature to put Smoak into the clean up spot he has the talent to succeed there.  Smoak already has the power and on base skills to be a middle of the order hitter.  Now he needs to improve against lefties and become more conisistent to be a true threat at the major league level.

5. Franklin Gutierrez CF: Gutierrez started off the season on fire and then cooled as the entire team's offense went down in flames.  Franklin was a victim of the Mariner's anemic offense and should thrive if the players around him pull their own weight.

6. Michael Saunders/Milton Bradley LF: I am a bigger fan of Saunders then most and hope he plays his way into the every day left fielders job in the second half of this year.  Saunders, Much like Smoak, will have to use the rest of this year honing his skills and becoming a more savvy hitter.  Milton "The Consummate Serious" Bradley should get plenty of at bats splitting time between DH and left field. 

7.Jack Wilson/Josh Wilson SS:  While I am a fan of both of the Wilsons I am not a fan of either them as the starting short stop in 2011.  With the lack of any other options in the minor leagues or via free agency the team will have to make due with what they have.

8. Catcher:  The team will have to call Adam Moore up from Tacoma at some point soon to see what he can do in the majors.  If Moore isn't the long term answer then the Mariners will likely seek a short term upgrade either in a trade or in free agency.  There is a decent group of veteran catchers that can hit at an average above the Mendoza line.

9. Dustin Ackley 2B: While I don't expect Ackley to necessarily win the job out of spring training but I do expect he will win the job at some next year.  I do expect the team to hit him ninth in the order to provide him protection from expectations and the protection of hitting in front of Ichiro.

 

Bench: Josh Wilson: With a limited bench Wilson's versatility will be key for the teams success.

Bench: Ryan Langerhans: Langerhans will back up all three outfield spots.

Bench: Catcher: The back up catcher will likely be Rob Johnson because of his repore with the pitching staff.

Bench: 1B/DH/LF: Depending on the match up one of Branyan, Bradley or Saunders will end up on the pine.

Starting Pitchers

1. Felix Hernandez RHP: King Felix could be for the first time the most veteran pitcher of the staff.

2. ?: Will Erik Bedard finally pay dividends for the M's?  Will Michael Pineda light the world on fire in spring training? Or will the team dip into free agency to over pay a thirty something starting pitcher?  If none of those happen the Mariners may have to look to Ryan Rowland-Smith, Chris Seddon, David Pauley or possibly even Blake Beavan to fill out the rotation.

3. Michael Pineda RHP: Pineda has scorched the earth of every minor league stadium he has pitched at this year.  Pineda has top of the rotation stuff and could be the teams best hope behind Felix.

4. Jason Vargas LHP: Vargas has put together a solid season to the surprise of many.  Along Fister, Vargas will be counted on to eat innings and anchor the back of the rotation.

5. Doug Fister RHP: Much like Vargas Fister has been a pleasant surprise this year.

Bullpen

Closer: David Aardsma RHP

Reliever: Brandon League RHP

Reliever: Shawn Kelley RHP

Reliever: Brian Sweeney RHP

Reliever:  David Pauley RHP

Reliever: Garrett Olsen LHP

Reliever: Chris Seddon LHP

This may not be the rosiest picture of next season but rest assured that GM Jack Zdreincik has a few tricks up his sleeve.  Building a franchise from the bottom up requires a great deal of patience.  While things are certainly getting better many of the moves the new regime has made will not begin to benefit the team until 2012(Not referring to the acquisition of John Cusack).  The first draft of the new front office looks very strong led by Dustin Ackley, Rich Poythress and Nick Franklin.  Add to strong draft the team has signed several promising international players and theshrewd acquisitions of players like Mauricio Robles and Dan Cortes.  Light at the end of the tunnel? Perhaps. 

Comment 48 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Most people on here are but there are many Saunders detractors out there. The team certainly won’t change drastically threw free agency.

by Richard Bowler on Jul 15, 2010 11:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

Please remember to use the subject line. (I feel like a real LLer now!)

Most people who are Saunders detractors aren’t very good at evaluating talent.

There’s also almost no chance that all three of Smoak, Bradley, and Branyan are still on the team next year.

by Jeff Nye on Jul 16, 2010 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know

Bradley could end up as a 4th OF

by Poochie on Jul 16, 2010 6:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

Although I'm not convinced that the team will look totally like this

It does help to illuminate what positions will need to be addressed over the winter. Well done and welcome to LL.

Karma police, arrest this man.

by wyte_lightning on Jul 16, 2010 12:23 AM PDT reply actions  

If Pineda pitches in Seattle next year it will be as the fifth starter.

Because of innings limits and pitch counts Pineda’s 2011 will probably be similar to Felix’ 2006. Skipped starts and early exits should be the norm.

by Jack Swan on Jul 16, 2010 1:23 AM PDT reply actions  

It weirds me out when people make posts on Lookout Landing that say "rest assured" as though everyone on LL was shaking with worry.

I appreciate your efforts, I do. But this is a post that essentially says things that every Mariner fan knows, and everyone on this blog knows even better than most. It also negates itself by adding

“GM Jack Zdreincik has a few tricks up his sleeve.”

So you are saying “This is what the team will look like next year, unless it doesn’t” which is why it’s usually a good idea to refrain from posts like this. But again, I appreciate the effort. Welcome to LL.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jul 16, 2010 1:37 AM PDT reply actions   5 recs

David Aardsma had better fucking not be the closer next year.

A couple of things:

As CapSea says, posts like this are generally a bad idea because none of us have any idea who will or won’t be here next year.

There is a decent group of veteran catchers that can hit at an average above the Mendoza line

You probably already know this but LL is a very sabermetrically-minded blog and batting average is a poor way to evaluate players. You should work your way through this series to get a better understanding of the terminology you’ll see used around here. Fett’s collection is excellent too, but make sure you read Graham’s first. You don’t have to be an expert or anything (lord knows I’m not) but a general knowledge of things like wOBA and tRA will help you here.

by Eyeball Kid on Jul 16, 2010 2:56 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

In his defense I'm guessing it was more of a throwaway comment

Meaning “There are catchers available that don’t completely suck”. Luckily every stat available agrees that our catchers are horrid.

by MT Olson on Jul 16, 2010 5:22 AM PDT up reply actions   3 recs

I wasn't trying to pile on or anything, but there were a few things that led me to posting those two links

Guti’s bat being affected by everyone else’s, Ackley getting protection from Ichiro, the line I quoted.

If I didn’t like the post/poster then I wouldn’t have bothered to post anything.

by Eyeball Kid on Jul 16, 2010 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Reading it back

It does come across a bit harsher than intended.

by Eyeball Kid on Jul 16, 2010 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

Seems awfully presumptuous to write in Pineda at #3

He’s coming off an injury season and will have only one season above A+ ball. All signs point to he’s set to go but even if he breaks camp with the team it’s a lot to ask of such an inexperienced rookie.

I’m pretty comfortable with Vargas as the #3 starter. He’s like an affordable, sexually deviant Washburn. I wouldn’t write Bedard in anywhere higher than 4 only because he’s incredibly unlikely to pitch a whole season and while the actual order of the rotation matters very little you generally arrange the names from the likely biggest contributor to the likely least contributor. If we count Bedard as #4 it hurts less when he’s replaced by Pauley for months on end.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jul 16, 2010 7:08 AM PDT reply actions  

They will look exactly the same because they are not changing their uniforms.

We have no idea how they will feel because that will get you arrested.

by Sec 108 on Jul 16, 2010 8:06 AM PDT reply actions  

Oh God that bullpen will be fun.

And you forgot Sean White, he’ll be there.

According to my calculations, your problem doesn't exist.

by the other side on Jul 16, 2010 1:53 PM PDT reply actions  

Your 2010 Mariners

C: Johjima
1B: Branyan
2B: Lopez
3B: Hannahan/ Hall
SS: Wilson
LF: Saunders
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Ichiro
DH: Griffey

C: Johnson
IF : Wilson
UT: Hall/ Hannahan
OF Langerhans

SP: Felix
SP: Bedard
SP: RRS
SP: Snell
SP: Morrow

CL: Aardsma
RP: Lowe
RP: Kelley
RP: White
RP: Fister
RP: Vargas
RP: French

by Poochie on Jul 16, 2010 5:19 PM PDT reply actions  

Truth

not least since he’s outhitting Kotchman (though Fenway vs. Safeco has something to do with that, I’m sure)’

by The Ancient Mariner on Jul 17, 2010 6:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

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