Is Felix Pitching Too Much?

by katal on Jul 11, 2010 10:05 AM PDT

Felix Day is always an exciting affair. So far this year he's thrown four complete games, allowed two or fewer runs in fourteen starts, and had seven or more strike outs in ten starts. All this despite his poor (and unlucky) May!

Then again, maybe this is disconcerting. Because he's been in Major League Baseball since 2005, it's easy to forget that Felix is still a young 24 - his 25th birthday won't be until after the start of the 2011 season. We have all heard horror stories of young phenom pitchers having their careers ruined to injury after throwing too often and too hard at an early age. Should we be worried for Felix's future?

Felix is tied with Ben Sheets for the most pitching starts this season, at 19. During these starts he's thrown more pitches than anyone in baseball but Dan Haren (Haren's 2,112 to Felix's 2,104). Felix has faced more batters than anyone else in MLB (565 to second-place Ervin Santana's 522). He has also thrown more innings than any other pitcher (137 2/3 to Sabathia's 124 - Felix is on pace for 247 IP this year). He is behind only Cliff Lee in complete games, four to Cliff's six. The "kid's gloves" are clearly off as far as the Mariners' approach to Felix goes. He is now a workhorse.

But hey! Maybe this is not a big deal. Other young pitchers threw a lot when they were young, and they turned out fine, right? Let's take a look. Baseball-Reference.com lists Charlie Lea, Justin Verlander, Wally Bunker, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Mark Prior, Carmen Hill, Scott Kazmir, Chad Billingsley and Jim Weaver as being similar pitches to Felix. Of those ten names, only seven of them pitched in MLB in their early-twenties. Those are the seven names I am concerned about. Time to examine how they did.

Verlander: His first full season was at age 23. He pitched 197 innings, including the post season. He pitched 201 2/3 innings at age 24, and continued to throw for more than 200 innings every season thereafter. He continues to be a star.

Bunker: Wally Bunker pitched more than 200 innings at age 19. His innings/season steadily declined until he threw only 71 innings age 23. Then at age 24 he threw 222 2/3 IP. He struggled the next year, and the proceeding year after that was his last in baseball. Managers must have been real dumb back then.

Harden - Rich Harden began his MLB career at age 21. He threw 189 2/3 innings at age 22. At 23 the injuries started. Since his age 22 season, he's only topped 100 IP/season three times. He is now 28 and ineffective for the Texas Rangers.

Prior - Mark Prior began pitching for the Cubs at age 21, during which time he threw 116 2/3 innings. The next year he threw 234 2/3 innings, including the post season. He started experiencing injuries the following year, and has not thrown a pitch in MLB since 2006.

Hill - Carmen Hill had a crazy time in baseball during the nineteen-teens. Check it out. I don't know what to make of him, but I can tell that his situation was nothing like Felix's. Moving on.

Kazmir - Scott Kazmir broke into baseball at age 20, but his first full season was not until age 21, during which he threw 186 innings, after just 33 1/3 the year before. He threw 206 2/3 innings at age 23, but pitched less and less each year since. Although he used to be considered one of the best young pitchers in the game, he is currently performing horrendously for the Angels.

Chad Billingsley - Chad Billingsley threw 90 pitches for the Dodgers at age 21. He threw 147 at age 22, 200 2/3 at 23, 196 1/3 at 24, and has thrown 95 2/3 innings this year, at 25. It's hard to say how he will do going forward, although I would be remiss if I did not point out that Billingsley is throwing significantly less than Felix, too.

Of the seven pitchers deemed similar to Felix, we have Carmen Hill, who I am going to ignore from here-on out, four pitchers who were wracked with injuries after pitching a lot in their early-mid 20's, and two who, while not having sustained major injuries, are still in their mid-20s. Anything could happen to them.

Felix is not in good company. Even when one looks at the veteran pitching stars of today, like CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum and Ubaldo Jiminez, Felix has thrown significantly more than they were at his age (Lincecum arguably being an exception). I love Felix, and the reasons to worry about his health going forward terrify me.

Tweet Comment 42 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I'm just not convinced that pitch count alone can be so important

It seems to me that without knowing the rest of a pitcher’s workout routine we actually have no idea what kind of stress is being put on the arm.

As I understand it, pitchers throw a lot of pitches besides the ones we see on gameday. Most of these pitches are well below gameday stress, such as warmup pitches and bullpen workouts in between starts. But, I’m sure that many of these pitches are very very close to in game stress levels on the arm. Pitchers throw warm-up pitches during games between innings.

Wouldn’t it be easy for a pitcher to throw 20+ more game speed pitches outside of the game and we, as fans, would have absolutely no idea?

by Snuffleupagus on Jul 11, 2010 10:25 AM PDT reply actions

Warmup pitches before games and between the innings

That’s extra on his arm.

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Jul 11, 2010 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions

Yes, but

maybe he throws less for one reason or another. My point is simply that in game pitch counts don’t tell us how many arm stressing pitches a pitcher actually throws. Unless we know these numbers, we can’t perfectly extrapolate arm stress by looking at in game pitch counts alone.

by Snuffleupagus on Jul 11, 2010 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Hell, even pickoff attempts probably stress the arm about the same as an in-game pitche

by Tube on Jul 11, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions

Oops. *pitch

by Tube on Jul 11, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions

What do you base this on?

by OlSalty on Jul 11, 2010 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions

Nothing statistical

But a pickoff attempt needs just as much velocity and requires a little less location control than a normal pitch—the first baseman is a bigger target to hit than the strike zone, but is just as far away—and, depending on the pitcher’s handedness, can involve just as much (or more) twisting of the body and arm in the turn towards first. I’m not a pitching mechanics expert by any stretch of the imagination, but I don’t see how the stresses involved could be a whole lot easier on the body than a pitch.

by Tube on Jul 11, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Pick off attempts generally don't have nearly the velocity of a normal pitch

Because the pitcher doesn’t go through his windup when throwing to first. And he also doesn’t need to put movement on it.

by OlSalty on Jul 11, 2010 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Have you seen Felix's pickoff attempt??

Half joking.

Pro Ball NW | @Jon_ProBallNW

by JonBBT on Jul 11, 2010 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Like you said, warm up and throw-day pitches are generally not maximum effort, and those are controlled as well

We don’t know the precise mechanisms that cause injuries in pitchers, yes. But that doesn’t mean we have no idea at all what causes injuries: We know pitching puts stress on the body and stress causes injury, and we have a pretty good idea that injury is more likely to occur in a fatigued state. Fatigued muscles become less effective at protecting their associated connective tissues. When the muscle itself becomes incapable of handling a stressor because of exhaustion that stress has to go somewhere, and generally it goes to the ligaments and such that are not as well equipped to handle it.

That’s enough information to suggest the more pitches you throw the higher the risk of injury, at least to some degree. Exactly how much is too much depends on a lot of factors we don’t know: The genetic makeup of the individual pitcher, the level of exertion with which each pitch was thrown, conditioning and rest, etc. It’s true that pitch counts cannot be taken out of context and held to some general, arbitrary standard for a “safe” number of pitches. But the reason people are making a fuss over Felix’s pitch counts is that this number of pitches is entirely new ground for him on an individual basis and that has to pose some level of added risk. Maybe that risk is miniscule because Felix is a workhorse. Again, don’t know. But we know that adding risk is completely unnecessary given where we’re at in this season and that it could potentially harm the team when the games actually matter if something did go wrong. It’s just not worth it to take the chance right now.

by OlSalty on Jul 11, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Felix's high inning count can be attributed to his efficient pitching.

No. 2 in amount of pitches thrown and No. 1 in total batters faced (a staggering 43 more than No. 2).

Felix’s counting stats (total innings, total pitches, and total batters faced) are insanely high by today’s standards, but how difficult was it for him to attain these numbers? I think we should question these 115+ pitch games, especially when they are so close together, but he doesn’t appear to be struggling through those last pitches.

Felix at age 24 is pitching like someone at 28. He spent four years learning how to pitch until his breakout 2009 season. He is pitching smarter with every outing. Ever since his 2007 elbow injury, he hasn’t thrown that devastating slider that put stress on his arm. Felix seems to know his limits as he is less prone to overthrowing a fastball out of frustration. He is more concerned about keeping his pitch count efficient instead of going after a strikeout.

Felix is young and has a lot of mileage on him, but he could be in the mold of Roger Clemens (who threw 254 IP at age 23, 281 IP at 24, 264 IP at 25, and 253 IP at 26), and I doubt Felix will ever have that much mileage placed on him.

If there are any signs Felix is being overworked, I trust this organization will take the proper action to reduce his workload or give him extra rest. Until then, though, I haven’t seen any cause of concern except for counting numbers with modern standards. And when it comes to those stats, it varies widely from individual to individual of who can take on more stress. Felix appears he can handle a higher amount of pitching stress than the average pitcher.

by Wilder. on Jul 11, 2010 11:36 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

This is basically my feeling as well.

I haven’t seen all of Felix’s starts this year, but it seems to me, that even during his complete games, there never seems to be a point later in the games where he is really laboring. If he’s cruising along and having no trouble repeating his delivery and mechanics each time, I don’t think it’s that bad for him.

Plus, it’s not like he’s throwing an absurd amount of pitches. Last night’s 126 was his 2nd highest total of the season(128 is the high) and just the 2nd time he’s breached 120.

You're dead to me.

by Goose on Jul 11, 2010 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions

I think anything over 110-115 is completely unneccessary when we're not in a playoff race.

Not because I can quantify how much extra stress gets put on Felix’s arm, but because I don’t see any downside in taking it a little easy on his arm this year.

by Decatur on Jul 11, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Psychological effects...

of watching our crumby bullpen blow the lead vs. shutting the Yankees down yourself? Vargas, for example, looks like his hair’s going to turn gray when he watches the bullpen try to protect his leads. Playing devil’s advocate here, of course.

Felix’s preoccupation with W’s does have the potential to make him push himself too far, but you know, he’s a big man and he’s had his inning totals increased the right way over the years. If there’s anyone in our system who I think can handle a 120 pitch outing, it’s him. His windup on his last curve ball last night was a perfect repetition of his motion, and he snapped off a beauty. You don’t do that if you’re in inordinate danger of injury. I think he’ll be fine.

by chaney on Jul 11, 2010 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions

When you mention his inning totals being increased the right way

I decided to figure out the average number of innings pitched per game started every year through his career. I have no idea if it is at all indicative of anything and I don’t really want to do it for the other pitchers mentioned as being similar to Felix, but here they are

2005 – 7 ip/gs
2006 – 6 ip/gs
2007 – 6.1 ip/gs
2008 – 6.2 ip/gs
2009 – 7 ip/gs
2010 – 7.1 ip/gs

Other than his rookie year I was kind of amazed at how that worked out. Again I have no idea if it means anything or if the coaching staff has realized how linear it has worked out, but it’s kind of crazy. If this rate continues he’ll be pitching a complete game every start by 2015!

What's the deal with corn nuts?

by BaronVonBullshit on Jul 11, 2010 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions

So if he never gets practice pitching >115 pitches late in a season...

How do you know he’s going to be capable of doing it in October after a complete season of work? Keep in mind that if he pitches in October all the way through a World Series, you’re potentially looking at 50+ innings ON TOP OF his work during the regular season.

At some point, it’s his career.

Also, the one thing to note about several of his comps you listed is they ALL started getting arm trouble of the BIG FLASHING RED ALERT kind before Felix’s current age, and none of them were able to keep working at a high workload for very long- anywhere near as long as Felix has. Prior, for instance, managed ONE season at a high workload comparable to Felix, and started breaking down. Harden? Never even made it to Felix’s level. Kazmir? Same story.

by eponymous_coward on Jul 11, 2010 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Felix also has the beneift of never having to pitch in October! =D

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jul 11, 2010 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

=(

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jul 11, 2010 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

We can never really know one way or the other

But I’d really wish the Mariners would err on the side of caution and reduce his workload.

by nathaniel dawson on Jul 11, 2010 11:37 AM PDT reply actions

I can 100% respect this opinion and would probably share it if I weren't so in love with watching Felix celebrate.

by Teej on Jul 11, 2010 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Given how they've handled the Fister/Vargas workload issue.

I can only trust that the organization knows what it’s doing and will absolutely take action if Felix’s workload takes a toll on him.

by ThundaPC on Jul 11, 2010 12:29 PM PDT reply actions

I'd feel more uncomfortable if Felix was still out there while showing signs of fatigue

Last night’s game made me a bit nervous because his velocity was down in the 8th which would indicate he was still throwing while being out of gas. He ratcheted it up in the 9th (his 122th pitch was a 96mph fastball), but he chucked an un-Felixey 89mph 2-seamer that Dave commented on before that in the 8th that set off some warning bells for me. He’s got beastly stamina, but he’s also ultra competitive and with the season sunk I hope Wak has the wherewithal to take him out if he’s gassed. He’s not going to want to come out, that’s for sure.

by Drew_D on Jul 11, 2010 12:38 PM PDT reply actions

Joe Girardi seems to think so

And that’s precisely why he’s not playing in the All Star game this year:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2012334583_felix_hernandez_denied_all-sta.html

by Michael Kearney on Jul 11, 2010 11:08 PM PDT reply actions

Quote

Yankees manager Joe Girardi had two extra spots to add players to on his AL All-Star team roster and could have taken Felix Hernandez. But he didn’t. He went with Andrew Bailey and Justin Verlander instead.

The reason why?

Those 126 pitches thrown by Hernandez to beat Girardi’s team on Saturday night.

“I wouldn’t feel good about putting him in a game on Tuesday. He’s deserving; he’s been dominant,‘’ Girardi said. "He has a real good chance of making this team if he doesn’t throw 125 pitches yesterday."

by Michael Kearney on Jul 11, 2010 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Holy shit.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jul 11, 2010 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Wow

by Allen Wu on Jul 11, 2010 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Whoa

Not sure what to think here

My Mariners blog SodoMojo, My Twitter Feed

by Griffin Cooper on Jul 12, 2010 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions

Jeter swung at seven pitches today.

I dunno if he can play either.

Dissenting opinions are welcome, and should be encouraged, at Lookout Landing. -LL Style Guide

by MT Olson on Jul 12, 2010 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions

He purposely tried to extend his at-bats so Felix wouldn't make it on the All-Star team.

by nathaniel dawson on Jul 12, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions

....wow I have never heard of this happening.

You're dead to me.

by Goose on Jul 12, 2010 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions

He added Weaver then immediately added someone else because Weaver had just pitched.

Do the same thing with Felix. Seems pretty easy.

by Fuckmikereilly on Jul 12, 2010 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions

You think we might've done something to piss them off?

And then the Felix CG (third time this year) where he kisses his guns and screams to the sky? I mean, Girardi wants to field the best possible players for his allstar team right? He wouldn’t let something like having his ass handed to him by both the Mariners front office and then their ace pitcher on consecutive days get in the way of making legitimate all star selections would he?

Heh, spin Felix spin.

by Drew_D on Jul 12, 2010 1:14 AM PDT up reply actions