Mike Carp Appears To Be On The Way Up
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 6:41 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Transactions
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PrintThis isn't yet official, so don't hold me to it, but the word is that Mike Carp's coming up from Tacoma, where he's batted .250/.319/.457 with a team-leading ten home runs.
A Carp promotion would presumably come at the expense of Casey Kotchman, who has 16 hits over his last 109 at bats with absolutely zero power, but I don't want to get ahead of myself.
Carp - who only turns 24 in June - doesn't look like he's made a lot of progress in AAA from where he was a year ago, but he has hit fewer than 300% of his balls in play on the ground, which would make him a nice change of pace at first. That he plays defense like a glove on a starfish would be a worse change of pace.
Update: so, yeah, Carp is coming up, but it doesn't look like it'll be a Kotchman DFA, but rather Mike Sweeney going on the DL with a bad back that's kept him out of a few games already. Surprise! If Wak handles this right, it could and should mean a little more time for Saunders, which is neat. If Wak handles this wrong, then we'll see a lot more Eliezer Alfonzo at shortstop. What??
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If Carp is what is going to help us next year, we're probably fucked.
Not to dog on you, I just don’t see him as a big part of the team’s future.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 6, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Eh. A 1.5-2 WAR 1B playing at league minimum?
I could live with that. It won’t fix all the problems with the roster, but this team can’t go out and sign a zillion free agents.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions
If Carp is a 1.5-2 WAR 1B then I will prepare a nacho hat and eat it
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 8:29 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
I think that's eventually where he ends up- Eric Hinske/Casey Kotchman land of "God, you should be better, but you're not."
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Eventually, or now?
Your comment confused me.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 8:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe now, more likely later.
Sometimes players DO get peaks earlier. Seems to happen more to the “old players skills” group, like Alvin Davis and Ben grieve (not that I am saying Carp == Grieve or Davis, more that who knows, me might luck into some decent years earlier in his career).
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions
er, we might.
But basically, I’d agree with your point that Kotchman is doing essentially nothing and what the hell, might as well spend a few months looking at Carp and seeing if he’s a potential fill-in at 1B or if we need to go outside the organization. I’m not wedded to the guy- below average but above replacement level talent at 1B is fairly easy to find for a few million if you need it.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions
He won't be around here for more than when he's arb-eligible if he's a terrible player here, though.
Can’t see GMZ retaining a bad player once they start hitting arb paydays, which are based around things like HRs and ignore defense.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions
In other words, he'll either be adequate and cheap or end up with the Royals soon enough...
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions
The Mariners are at a sort of difficult crossroads with respect to players.
Other than Ichiro, Guti, Felix, and however much we have left of Lee, the team is basically composed of league average ceiling players that probably won’t even meet that. Loafie may very well end up a 3 win player, it’s not time to give up on Figgins, and Saunders has promise, but catcher, shortstop, 1b, are all manned and backed up by guys that have no real upside and not a lot of value as is.
This team needs to face the prospect of finding more talented players, and the talent pool at first is much larger than that for catcher and short. That’d be a good place to start. This is what Dave Cameron was talking about in the offseason when he mentioned how difficult it is to get from .500 to better than that. There’s no harm in letting Carp run out the string, but we can’t continue to run out so many adequate and cheap players and expect to succeed. Mike Carp is fine in theory but useless in practice.
by abender20 on Jun 6, 2010 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
I get what you are saying and agree.
But if you strip down a team to it’s absolute core and have Guti, Ichi, and Felix, you have to feel pretty good about it.
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
by the other side on Jun 6, 2010 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Figgins' ceiling is a 5-win player
He was worth six wins last year, and we projected him to be between 3-4 wins this year. He’s still Chone Figgins, even if he hasn’t been himself for two months.
Well, if it was easy to find 2-3 win players at 1B...
Don’t you think we’d have one by now? I mean, really, we’ve needed one since Richie Sexson went pfft in 2007.
The problem is that the M’s don’t have the farm system to plug in talented+cheap players, and don’t have the money to plug in talented+expensive (the only reason we have Cliff Lee is his salary fit in our cost structure in 2010, but it’s unlikely it will in 2011- keep in mind the salary budget was CUT in 2010, and may get cut again in 2011 thanks to continued attendance declines). That means either a) having to recreate the Putz-Guti trade at multiple positions, which is damned tough to do, or b) field various types of flawed players and hope for the best… and sometimes, a 1-1.5 WAR player WILL come up with a season well above their head. Hinske and Kotchman have both had 4.5ish WAR seasons, even though they aren’t anything close to consistent 4 WAR players.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions
It is relatively easy to find league average players at first base. We managed to do so last year for peanuts.
The front office took a shot at it again this year and it didn’t work out. Other teams got luckier with Troy Glaus and Adam Laroche and whatnot.
And our league average player didn't come back because he couldn't stay league-average.
He basically went from ZOMG WOW to useless by August thanks to his back, plus he was 34.
Was talking more “someone who isn’t a fill-in who we’ll just have to replace next year”. Carp’s reasonably likely to be a fill-in, I’ll grant you that, but I don’t really have an issue of filling in with him until something better comes along. Giving him playing time in 2010 doesn’t stop us from looking at other stuff.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Please stop using chatspeak, even ironically.
We’re trying to keep things like “zOMG” off the blog. Thanks.
...and now I'm here
If you expect him to contribute like that immediately, then wow.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 6, 2010 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions
yah JY - that's why I said its time to see what we have
… And if he fits or if we need to look somewhere else. You can’t possibly be saying that we should keep putting kotchman out there?
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Jun 6, 2010 9:40 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Probably not.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 6, 2010 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions
As opposed to Everidge, who plays D like a glove nailed to a barrell.
Whatever. Carp hit .400 this past week.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 6, 2010 6:50 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Does at the expense of Kotchman mean a DFA?
That seems a little drastic even though Kotchman has been pretty horrible at the plate. Sweeney can’t take the field and if Carp can’t get it done then that might mean Tui gets more time. Maybe someone takes a trip to the DL?
No matter where you go, there you are.
I don't know. At this point all we can do is speculate
However, while a DFA might be harsh, it’s clear that Kotchman has made no progress. He’s no longer a possible solution.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree.
I guess I’m just not sold on Carp and worried that if Kotchman goes away the team hasn’t thought through what they will do if Carp fails. It seems to be another decision that’s made without thinking about the second (or third) order effects if things don’t go as planned.
No matter where you go, there you are.
I'm not sold on Carp either
I don’t think Carp is very good, and I don’t think Carp is ever going to be very good. However, at least he has a chance, while Kotchman seems like a lost cause.
And if Carp fails, well, it won’t be too hard to find a better first baseman than a failed Mike Carp.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Can't really pull high-minors depth out of thin air
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 7:16 PM PDT up reply actions
How many minor league players are their in the mariner system?
From what I’ve read it seems like there are only 3-5 players in our minor leagues who have potential to make it next year or the year after. How does that compare to other teams? I know we gave up a lot for Cliff Lee but we should be able to get a lot in return if we decide to trade him.
None of the three players we gave up for Lee are ready for the majors.
Aumont was just demoted to High A, Gillies is stuggling, and well JC Ramirez has been good. He’s probably the only guy of the three that could contribute something in short order.
Four main minor league teams, with I assume 25 man rosters.
And then there are more when you go deeper past that with the short season leagues but… yeah. They aren’t anywhere close to the majors.
If you had 3-5 impact players coming up in a year or two, that would be a lot. Most of the time you are bringing up guys like Tuiasosopo, Josh Wilson, and Mike Carp. Not usually impact guys.
In September or next year, we might have a few new faces that could really make an impact. But not now.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Whatever, it's not like this season matters any more.
Carp is more fun than Kotchman anyway. Wow ok we get it Casey, you can make a diving play at first. Too bad every other infielder is better at defense than you and more fun to watch. Some homeruns would be much, much more entertaining at this point.
I miss Eric Byrnes.
Watching Carp play defense isn't going to be awfully fun, and it's not like what's his offensive upside. .340 wOBA?
I understand the rationale for him over Kotchman, but he isn’t a long term solution so it’s just a chance to get some relief from watching Kotchman destroy the infield grass.
First base defense is like... one of the least important defensive positions right?
Of course its gonna save you some runs over a season, but if it’s anywhere, at least its first base.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm just saying, less runs than if you downgraded centerfield.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions
No?
I mean, and I’m just giving my honest opinion but am willing to hear other opinions – but you put a guy at first base oftentimes if he’s really not good enough defensively to play 3rd base or right field or something. Or you put them in one of the corner outfield spots if they are a good enough hitter, like at first base, to make up for their bad or below average defense.
However, I suppose if I think about it, you can still lose the same amount of runs at first base as any other position if the loss on defense is significant enough. So… I concede.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions
His minor league wOBA ranges from .360 - .390.
In 65 PAs last year at the major league level, it was .388.
Dunno if you bank on that long-term, though.
What an awful comment. Contribute better.
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Jun 6, 2010 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
He had 65 trips to the plate
He showed that he has a good eye, but it was too small a sample to really do much.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions
This is the main point
I made this argument last week on USSM, but no matter what you think about this team, Kotchman no longer offers enough to be its starting first baseman. If you’re playing for now, you need to make a trade and get a better player in here ASAP. If you’re playing for the future, then he’s just taking at-bats from someone who will be in the organization past November, as he’s a virtual lock for a non-tender this winter.
So, yeah, Carp’s not great, but at least the team won’t be releasing him at season’s end. If he has a hot streak, at least it might give him some trade value or something. If Kotchman has a hot streak, it doesn’t matter.
by davidcameron on Jun 6, 2010 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
you are right - you dont know. No one does.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
by Gekko Mojo on Jun 6, 2010 9:46 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I really wish you would make an attempt to make a positive contribution to discussions
Instead of trying to play “gotcha” all the time.
Nobody knows for sure what any player will do going forward, no, but we have a reasonably good sense of what Carp’s true talent level is at this point. He’s not going to turn into Albert Pujols.
by Jeff Nye on Jun 6, 2010 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
That's not fair. I only advocate managing this year's club to ensure a better chance in 2011.
If we stick with pieces that we know won’t help us next year, we are losing an opportunity. How is trying to get an answer to an unknown a “gotcha”?
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Saunders can (at some point) field and run and throw and hit and decently walk.
Carp can maybe hit and draw walks
by Mariner John on Jun 6, 2010 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Boy that's quite a bit of potential there.
DH or trade filler.
by Mariner John on Jun 6, 2010 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions
You guys are acting as if I'm suggesting that he could become mark tixiera
I’m only suggesting that determining his potential, however high or low it may be, has value when we do it before the next offseason. Sticking with retreads like Langerhans, kotchman and Sweeny doesn’t help this team in 2011
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
And you're pretending that we have no idea how to project players based on minor league performances
Carp’s absolute best case scenario is about a 2.5 win player. More likely, he settles in somewhere between 1-2.
This isn’t some blind guess, it’s based on what we know about how minor league performance projects to the major leagues.
Not hardly. But, based on available options, it appears to have the most value from a club management perspective, does it not?
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Finding out where Mike Carp might fall in that roughly 1 win talent range isn't:
a) something you can easily determine in a few hundred at bats at any level, if ever
b) important at all.
You got me. Let's beg Jack and Wak to keep running Kotchman out there.
That must be the better strategy.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Come on. There's no need for that.
What people are trying to tell you is that NEITHER is a particularly good option, and that there’s no good reason to care which they go with.
Ok, but choosing neither is not an option. As insignificant as it might be, playing carp now is still a better choice.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
That's not very likely to be much of an improvement on Carp.
Langerhans is basically Casey Kotchman with less bat as a 1B. If you really think a subpar bat, good glove LH 1B is the way to go, why not just wait for Kotchman to regress back to hitting .260/.330/.410 again?
Langerhans really is a tweener, good glove OF with barely enough bat to not be a joke. Putting him at 1B just turns that to “not enough bat”.
Sweendawg, we’ve been over ad nauseam, so I’ll just say Dave’s point of “let’s play some guys who we might think can contribute in 2011” comes to mind.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions
It matters if they win.
If Kotchman gets hot and they start winning, then it matters. It’s a little too early to throw in the towel, but not by much.
That's a sizeable if.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 6, 2010 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Clearly Tui will be the new starting first baseman
Carp will be the backup!
I wasn't a super huge fan of dealing Hall,
But I was more okay with it at the time of the deal than I am now. Not really fair to judge a deal in hindsight so I guess I don’t know what my point is here.
By the way Bill Hall has also pitched a scoreless ninth.
by Mariner Melee on Jun 7, 2010 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
I hate Mike Carp
If you play first base, you must hit.
That he represents something better than Casey Kotchman, is sad.
But the organization thinks he represents something possibly better.
I have little hope that he is. But then again, everything we’ve seen from Casey Kotchman over the last month + has been at least as bad as Griffey was. At least.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 7:11 PM PDT up reply actions
To be fair
Kotchman’s LD% is above his career average but his BABIP is 70 points below his career average. He isn’t as bad as his results have been. But it is time for a change
Yeah, Kotchman has clearly been both mediocre and unlucky
But accounting for luck just gives you the Casey Kotchman that already existed, rather than an improved Casey Kotchman, which is what we were looking for.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions
This I agree with.
His GB rate is a tick higher than his career average, which wasn’t going to cut it. He hasn’t changed at all. I just wonder if he had better luck we’d be talking about a possible Carp call-up and Kotchman DFA.
It wouldn't surprise me if he passed waivers.
I know he wouldn’t, but I don’t think anyone who has watched him in the last month would pick him up.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions
If he is DFA'd I think we still have to pay him.
But the business side confuses me sometimes. I think it would be the same as us picking up Eric Byrnes and the Diamondbacks still paying him.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 7:21 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm thinking that's more like the Alex Rios situation, where we didn't know he was available until after the White Sox picked him up.
I think.
But I’m glad neither of us are sure.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions
I am not positive...and based on the update this is unnecessary speculation but...
I believe that whatever team would pick him up would pay league min, while we would have to cover the rest of his contract above league min.
That is what happened with Byrnes, correct?
As I understand it...
Kotchman is owed $3.5M for 2010.
If the Mariners put him on waivers and another team claims him, the claiming team assumes that $3.5M.
If the Mariners trade Kotchman, the two teams can work out who pays how much of Kotchman’s $3.5M. It can go to either team or be split up. It would usually go to the receiving team.
If Kotchman is released, the Mariners still owe him the $3.5M. If he signs with another team, however, he does not get another contract on top of the $3.5M. What the new team agrees to pay him comes out of the $3.5M, relieving the Mariners a bit. Kotchman would almost certainly sign for league minimum, because there is just no reason for the new team to pay him anything more than that. Kotchman is getting $3.5M either way. For a real example: Eric Byrnes was owed $11M by the D-Backs this season. They released him and the Mariners signed him for $400K. Thus, the D-Backs were only on the line for $10.6M, with the Mariners paying the $400K.
If I were an Angel I would be terrified for next year, since Angels Baseball apparently runs on human sacrifice.
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
by JAH on Jun 6, 2010 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Keep Kotch and Replace Tui -
At least that’s what I hope happens. I know, I know, Kotchman isn’t hitting. But he can’t be beat on defense and that’s one of Jack Z’s core beliefs. Defense would be downgraded and offense can only go up. Kotchman has been hitting the ball better lately. I’d like to see Carp be more of a utility infielder rather than just play first. I don’t know his experience with that, though. Whatever happens, I really just want Tui to go far, far away.
I don't think the big leagues are the place to learn to be a utility infielder.
Plus, Carp’s not known for his defense at first, so the idea of him playing other infield positions seems a little far fetched. As bad as Tui’s been, I’d rather have him as the utility guy than someone like Carp who would be learning new positions while adjusting to major league pitching.
No matter where you go, there you are.
I know Tui can't actually play the middle infield
but he can at least hold a glove and stand there, while Carp would fall over and die. We need a utility infielder on the bench.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
HAMMERHANDS!
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
by JAH on Jun 6, 2010 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Adam Everett was DFA'd from what I've heard...
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
I agree, we DO need a utility infielder on the bench...
…so why the hell not Hannahan? I don’t understand why he’s not being used AT ALL. I thought he was over the groin issue. He’s WAAAAYYYYY better than Tui. He can actually play around the infield and if I remember correctly from last season, can hit ok. And ok is better than most of what our team has been doing. Answers? Anyone?
His hitting has been abysmal so far this year.
That’s the only reason I can think of.
by Jackle Mackle on Jun 6, 2010 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Abysmal hitting is what Mariners do best. He'd fit right in.
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
by JAH on Jun 6, 2010 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I am against this.
Kotchman’s bad luck is masking a potential 1.5 to 2-win player. Not a centerpiece by any means, but serviceable and I don’t think his arbitration award after this season would be prohibitory, thanks in part to said bad luck.
I'm not a fan of trying to replace Kotchman with Carp, if that's what's happening.
The chance that Carp will end up being more than marginally more productive than Kotchman is el zilcho.
Either make a move to solidify first base with a quality player, or leave Kotchman alone and see if he can figure things out.
Zero?
Really?
You think the chances that a not-24-yet Mike Carp will outproduce Casey Kotchman are zero?
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Pretty much, yes.
I’ve never been high on Carp.
But let’s lose the hyperbole for a moment, and state my position more clearly:
I think that if both players fulffill their maximum potential, Kotchman will be a win or two better than Carp, but Kotchman is somewhat less likely to fulfill said potential. I can’t really quantify how much.
In my mind, you either get serious about finding a quality young first baseman or you give Kotchman at least until the All-Star break.
Calling up Carp does not prohibit the team from getting serious about finding a quality young first baseman
I am sure they’re looking. They are more aware of Carp’s limitations than we are.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 7:52 PM PDT up reply actions
But what does bringing Carp up in the meantime get you?
Worse defense, and maybe slightly better offense?
I don’t have a problem with the move per se, but it falls into the “mostly pointless” category.
(and yes, I’m sure they are looking as well and god I hope they find one)
Kotchman is doing nothing. Nothing at all. He hasn't homered since April 19th.
At least Carp has promise. Maybe they’ve received good reports on his swing. Maybe they’ve received good reports on his defense. Maybe there’s something they know that we don’t. Maybe there isn’t. But right now, this team is going nowhere, and Kotchman isn’t helping. Replacing him with Carp wouldn’t fix the team, but it wouldn’t really hurt it very much, if it hurts it at all.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, and I have to think at least one of your "maybes" is right
But we have fairly good coverage of at least the high minors from people like Jay and Marc, and I haven’t heard any of them say “HOLY CARP” recently, so…
Again though, don’t read what I’m saying too strongly, I’m hardly an ardent defender of Kotchman. Mike Carp just doesn’t excite me at all, either.
It's possible there's something to his uptick in homers
Who knows. I don’t like Mike Carp very much either, but I’m not going to get upset if we lose Casey Kotchman, because Casey Kotchman hasn’t improved at all.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions
If someone had said before the season "No, you really are getting Casey Kotchman"
We probably wouldn’t have gotten him.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Zips likes Kotchman for a .319 wOBA the rest of the way.
I sure as hell hope Carp can outdo a .319 wOBA. And I would think that the defense at worst will make them equal players except one of them still has potential.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Zero? How can you possibly determine that?
The value in giving carp at bats now is to determine what we have to do to set the roster in 2011. Answering an unknown has value since we can all agree that Kotchman is not a viable solution.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Not that it makes a big difference
but if you call him a +10 defender and -3 baserunner, I think 1-1.5 is more accurate.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 6, 2010 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn't factor baserunning
so I’d be fine with calling it 1.5.
Is there some reason Brad Nelson isn’t a much better option? He’s not on the 40 man but we do have open slots.
Would someone like Everidge be an option? Or maybe even Poythress, who I am massively curious about?
Poythress would probably be eaten alive by major league pitching right now.
.422 wOBA at home, .337 on the road, which includes 4 home runs in 3 games at Lancaster, which I’m told is a hitters haven. His numbers are good but they’re skewed. We need to see what he does at West Tennessee.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Incase you can't tell, patience is not one of my strong suits
I’ve been excited about Poythress since we drafted him.
Poythress is in advanced-A and hit about half his home runs in really friendly parks.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 6, 2010 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you have to share your mancrush with Positive Paul too.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 6, 2010 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, he's had quite a nice long stretch of bad luck where he's played below that.
And exactly how hard is it to find serviceable 1.5-2 WAR players at 1B? Last year it was Branyan, this year it was Kotchman, we’ll try Carp for a bit, in the offseason it will be (fill in the blank come January 2011).
Hard for me to get too excited here.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Branyan != Kotchman != Carp
They aren’t interchangeable.
!=
Do non-programmers generally understand that to mean “not equal”?
As a nonprogrammer, the first several dozen times I saw !=, I took it to mean not equal, but for a different reason
I read it like this:
Branyan! = Kotchman, which has a connotation of sarcasm which implies a nonequal relationship
Determined, Jonesing Commentor
First few times I saw it
I thought it meant “really really equals!”
Also, this Űž
is the symbol for Nacho Hat.
by lemonverbena on Jun 7, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
How do you do that?
Every time you masturbate... God kills a kitten? Fuck kittens.
by Matt Erickson on Jun 7, 2010 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Skillset? No. Of course not.
I think the idea is “hey, we use a flawed but cheap player to paper over a hole in the roster unti we’ve got a better idea on how to deal with it, and maybe we get lucky and more than we bargained for”.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Cerulean...tah-dah!
Every time you masturbate... God kills a kitten? Fuck kittens.
by Matt Erickson on Jun 7, 2010 4:18 AM PDT up reply actions
There are so many good first baseman in the league.
How did we miss out on getting one? I know he sucked in the 2nd half, I know there were injuries, but I miss Russell Branyan. He was nearly a 3-win player, and he’s been healthy for a month.. woulda been nice to have him over that time.
He declined our offer of one year + an option
and eventually accepted a lesser deal with Cleveland. Outside of offering him more money or giving him that guaranteed second year (wouldn’t have been a great idea with his back the way it was/is), there wasn’t much we could do about bringing Russell back.
by Jackle Mackle on Jun 6, 2010 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, if it wasn't for him then it wasn't for him.
Still would have been nice.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh I agree totally.
Everyone liked Branyan, and it’s really too bad his back had to go out when it did.
by Jackle Mackle on Jun 6, 2010 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions
If it really is Kotchman that is going,
at least I’ll have my autographed ball and picture from fanfest.
Move doesn't do anything to really improve the team, but I can't stand Kotchman and
his akwardness, ground balls, and ugly mug. I have no issue if the team just gets rid of him. He has no future here and he’s a boring player.
Carp doesn’t provide much and is also an akward looking man, so I’ll probably hate him too, but at least he’s someone new for a bit.
Bottomline, I just can’t wait until about 2012 when Jack has had ample time to put together a farm system, and build this offense up. I’m sick and tired of having to break down a bunch of peripheral numbers to come to the conclusion that a position player could possibly be adequate offensively, if he corrects this or that, or if he can recapture his form from multiple seasons ago (Kotchman, Byrnes, Bradley, etc)…
Better days are ahead.
The problem is that it has worked for Jack to think like that.
He saw potential in Guti that a lot of people didn’t see. If they had, Cleveland surely wouldn’t have traded him and neither would have anyone else.
He believed in Branyan.
He believed in Aardsma.
He’s getting a mulligan this season because of how awesome his moves were last season.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 6, 2010 8:40 PM PDT up reply actions
We wanted Zobrist too.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 6, 2010 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm assuming the past tense is only due to his present untouchability.
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
by the other side on Jun 6, 2010 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Jah.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 6, 2010 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions
He loves his post-hypes.
The success rate is bound to go down. Don’t forget fumbles with Cedeno and Olson, two more post-hypes.
Awww I liked Endy.
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
by the other side on Jun 7, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions
And let me take this opportunity for my daily "Fuck You Yuni".
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
by the other side on Jun 7, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Educated gambles are important and there's evidence of that all of the league.
Carlos Pena, a guy a lot of us lust over, was a scrap heap acquisition by the Rays*. A lot of the current front office’s success in trades has to do with making good on those plays.
*Looking at his numbers is hilarious. Even when he was supposedly bad with the Tigers, he was still a better than league average hitter.
Finding underappreciated talent is very important, as is taking some educated gambles..
The problem is that we are relying way too much on educated gambles.
We relied on way too many gambles in regards to our position players this year. The unproven catchers, Kotchman, Bradley, the DH situation, Eric Byrnes…
You can’t fill out half of your offensive/defensive roster with educated gambles. Well you can, but I doubt that’s what Jack wants to do.
I think he’d prefer to find underappreciated talent and build through his system, either with that system producing legit talent for the M’s or producing players that can be dealt for legit talent.
I think in a couple years Jack will have this roster in a place where we won’t need to gamble on guys recapturing success from 2-3 years ago like a Kotchman, Bradley, Sweeney, Byrnes.
I wouldn't put Bradley in that group, I think we were expecting to get Milton-like production and nothing more.
And we also did go out and get Cliff Lee.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 7, 2010 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions
And Chone Figgins.
Many people agreed we had a great offseason just because of those two guys and Bradley to an extent.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 7, 2010 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions
It was a great offseason, but my point was that this roster and farm system
was terrible when Bavasi left, and not even a handful of really excellent moves by Jack have put this team in a good position to make postseason. As I said, I’m looking forward to when Jack has all his people in place and that likely won’t happen for a couple more years.
For sure.
It was sounding to me like you weren’t liking Jack’s gambles on those players this year is all and that there were too many of them and not enough good moves.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 7, 2010 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I recognized that he was limited in regards to payroll after the Lee aquisition.
He had to take gambles. None of them have worked out, but that happens sometimes.
I’m just looking forward to when he doesn’t have to gamble with half the everyday lineup. When there are internal options who can come up and play well, or he has the system at a level where we can actually go out and make good trades (like the Lee one).
I’ve been happy with everything Jack has done with the exception fo the Morrow deal (I never like dealing young hard throwing starting pitching for relievers, even if you think you have a relief ace coming back) and signing Josh Fields.
Overall though he’s done a very good job. Just looking forward to the future when he doesn’t have to cross his fingers on guys like Bradley, Kotchman, Byrnes, etc..
Bradley has not been good this year. He wasn't good last year either.
So yes it was a bit of an educated gamble that he would be a legit middle of the order bat for this team, given how he performed a season ago.
We gambled that he would 1)Be healthy 2)Not lose his mind 3)split the difference between his 2008 season and 2009 seasons
He has missed some games due to injury, he missed two weeks with mental issues, and his offensive production has not been good this year.
The only reason we got Milton Bradley was because we got rid of Carlos Silva and there was a chance he was going to play well.
I’ve never understood the Milton Bradley “Middle of the order bat” hype considering how long he’s been in the league and how he’s usually good but not great. We wouldn’t have traded for him if it wasn’t for the fact that we were swapping bad contracts.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 7, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm not complaining about that deal. The only thing I'm pointing out is that while it
was a salary swap, we went into the season needing Bradley to perform at a high level in order to contend for postseason. Getting Bradley wasn’t a gamble. Needing him to be the big RBI bat in the middle of the order was a gamble. However, as I pointed out above, we had some payroll constraints that forced us to gamble that Milton, Kotchman, and the aging DH platoon would be productive run producers.
I think it's too early to judge whether Bradley's been worth it or not.
He still has over a year and a half left.
by Mariner John on Jun 7, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Bradley posted an above average wOBA while battling injuries and the media in Chicago last year
by seattlebruin on Jun 7, 2010 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
He provided very little value to Chicago last season and hasn't provided much
yet for us. It’s only been 1/3 of the season, but he hasn’t helped the M’s.
And Theo Epstein let him walk for nothing!
Which just goes to show you even the smart guy GMs blow it.
by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Underwhelming move.
At least it’s change where change is needed (assuming Carp becomes the regular 1st basemen and Kotch goes to the bench or gets DFA’d). I have a feeling the organization is looking elsewhere for a first basemen. I was pretty underwhelmed with getting Kotch in the first place, but I saw that if he lived up to his potential, he might actually be something good. Guess not.
Sometimes I’ve played Devil’s Advocate in my head and wondered what would have happened if we made that 3-way trade with Boston and SD, and we had Adrian Gonzalez on our team…
Yeah, well, technically moving from AAA to MLB is an evolution of sorts...
I can’t fucking wait for him to ravage Arlington!
Carlos Silvelite
Name puns are never ever going to die, are they.
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
by the other side on Jun 6, 2010 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Not while Snell still lives.
Dissenting opinions are welcome, and should be encouraged, at Lookout Landing. -LL Style Guide
No it learns tackle at level 15
The Holocaust was Rob Johnson's idea
by I Lick Squirrels on Jun 7, 2010 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Hopefully he evolves and we get 40 home runs
Yes, we have a coupon.
by Crystal for DH on Jun 7, 2010 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey, if we're gonna talk about a HR-hitting 1B-man who can't field
no one can compare to Dick Stuart, one of the most entertaining players ever.
God I would have loved to have seen him play first with Sam McDowell pitching. That would have been… eternal.
ignacio
You just beat me to it.
Since no one else had said it, I was going to point out that this Carp promotion seems fishy.
by katal on Jun 6, 2010 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'm finding it hard to scale back my skepticism.
by abender20 on Jun 6, 2010 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I've got to say I like this move. I'm hooked.
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
by the other side on Jun 6, 2010 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
While the issue has been discussed above, my greatest concern about this move is Carp's defense.
While I know it’s only first base, the guy has definitely shown a tendency to look like a fish out of water.
by katal on Jun 6, 2010 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Betcha a fin he looks worse at first than Kotchman does
by msb on Jun 6, 2010 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, we're talking Casey "Major League Record" Kotchman here.
Carp would have a whale of a time living up to his standard.
Just for the record,
I’m not reccing this and this only because whales aren’t fish.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I'm sure he didn't do it on porpoise.
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
by JAH on Jun 7, 2010 6:48 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Do I do anything else anymore?
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
I may be showing my lameness, but that would be awesome.
We should do it!
by BrettJMiller on Jun 7, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Hell yeah.
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
by the other side on Jun 7, 2010 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
You accidentally included the word 'not' in this comment.
For what it’s worth…
Huh
Shannon is guessing that Sweeney is heading to the DL to make room for Carp.
That makes more sense to me
I would also guess that Kotchman has exactly as many days left to turn things around as Sweeney will have on the DL.
Alright, that does make more sense.
Carp can be the backup first baseman, hopefully meaning we never see Tui there again, and can pinch-hit.
I'd like to see Tui and Rob Johnson play more often
to see if we can set modern day records for passed balls and errors. I think Tui had his 6th error of the season today- if he were a full-time player he could easily reach Russ Davis realms of fielding suckiness.
As for Mr. Johnson- fun fact- he has 16 career passed balls- about half of what Victor Martinez has in 1/6th the number of games.
Hmmmmmm.
@ shannondrayer Mike Carp appears to be on his way up. Guessing Sweeney is heading to the DL with the bad back…
Eliezar has killed people for less than that Jeff.
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
Isn't having Carp and Kotchman on the same roster a bit superfluous?
It’s almost as bad as Sweeney/Griffey.
It would be if for the remainder of the season.
However, it can be assumed that this pairing will last about, oh say, 10-15 days. I infer that one of them will not be here once Sweeney comes back.
by Hopefulmsfan on Jun 7, 2010 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Not as bad because they both play the field.
It allows you more opportunities to put Saunders in left more often with Bradley at DH and Carp at 1B.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 7, 2010 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Sometimes I wonder what this year would have been like if Jack had been given the same budget as 2008.
It certainly seems like he was trying to but together a lot of bargain basement players to fill out the roster.
I remember right after the winter meetings, after the Cliff Lee trade, thinking wow, they still have ~15 million to spend. Visions of Orlando Hudson, Vlad or Jim Thome. Oh and another starting pitcher.
Obviously, the constraints Jack was working within meant non of that was remotely possible. But going into this season, it felt like my original imagining of the team was still valid. I didn’t see Kotchman and Byrnes as the only possible moves, but just as nice buy low pickups. Diamonds in the rough. Now it seems painfully obvious we were splicing in scrap parts.
It sucks when you realize your expectations were too high, not that your team was just underperforming.
by stredarts on Jun 7, 2010 1:25 AM PDT reply actions 4 recs
Its a bad sign that when I saw it was Sweeney going on the DL
I instantly thought about Wak putting Carp at DH and continuing to run Bradley out to LF… sigh
And stredarts – the team is underperforming, with a few key position players and a few bullpen arms just not putting up numbers that we expected (numbers that are not outlandish, but are based on analyses of career numbers and averages. I don’t think .500 ball was too high of an expectation, and 85 wins is barely above .500.
I just keep thinking about the new DA
Dustin Ackley that is. Did he not play first base and outfield in college? Now they want him to play second which made sense with Lopez there. Now with the Figgy Lopi swap and the dead bat at first should he not be back at first? He’s been on fire the last 10 games batting .483 yeah I know its double A.
He's more valuable if he can play the middle infield
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 7, 2010 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, you can't be that short-sighted. There is a good chance that when Ackley really
starts to become a valuable player for us, both Lopez and Figgins won’t even be here.
Peaple need to be realistic with Ackley or you are going to get your heart broken.
by Edgar for Pres on Jun 7, 2010 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Given the wealth of evidence at our disposal
College career, scouting reports, current pro performance – I don’t think it is unrealistic to expect Ackley to be a ML-average player, at the least.
I'm fine with that statement
I think Ackley should easily become a league average player. Expecting him to hit for a BA of 300 and OBP of 400 seems like a prevailing feeling and that is tough to do for any good player.
by Edgar for Pres on Jun 7, 2010 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
I will be satisfied if he is a non-bust and a HOF superstar franchise player doesn't emerge from the bottom of the first round.
Unless it’s Nick Franklin.
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
by the other side on Jun 7, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't see it as being short-sighted.
I see it as being positive, people and players develop at different levels/speeds. Is there some sort of standard that says a player needs to be in the minors for 2,3,4+ years? I’m not saying he is ready today or that he’ll be ready by the end of the year but he could be.
Nobody expects Ackley to be in the minors for more than two years.
But he played first base out of necessity because of Tommy John surgery. His skillset at the plate plays best if he’s a middle infielder because there are still questions if he’ll ever hit more than 15-20 homers a year. When the time comes, we’ll figure out what to do with Lopez, and Chone will move to the third.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 7, 2010 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
An accelerated schedule for a prospect who's ready for it is fine.
Moving them away from a premium defensive position to do it is not fine.
I guess I'm happier about this than most
Carp reaaaally struggled in May, which pull his numbers down quite a bit. He’s the same hitter he was last year, but last year he was red hot in April/May and tailed off down the stretch. That doesn’t sound encouraging, but he’s actually a pretty good natural hitter that a lot in the org think has untapped potential. Yes, yes, that sounds EXACTLY like what people have been saying about Kotchman for years (and it is), but I think this is a move worth making.
I guess it’s easier to say this now that we know it doesn’t mean a Kotchman DFA. In any event, it’s kind of amazing the esteem that some in Tacoma hold Carp. There are those who think he’s as good a natural hitting talent as anyone on the club, and while that’s not saying much, I understand why it’s Carp who’s getting his 2nd call-up. As disappointing as it may be to rely on a 1.5-2 WAR first baseman, the M’s are no longer trying to go from 85 wins to 90. They’re trying to claw their way back to respectability, and a move like this can help with that.
I'm intrigued by what he could be at the plate
I am saddened at the thought of going from Kotchman’s D to Carp’s reputation of D. In the end, this is all Tui’s fault.
Very well said.
I don’t think Carp’s actual D is as terrible as the reputation, but there’s no doubt he’s going to be giving away runs in short order (Kotch’s D has looked quite good recently).
I just don’t get Tui. Spent much of ‘09 working on his defense, and getting some positive comments from scouts (or at least much less negative comments), and now in ’10 it’s worse than it’s ever been. Probably spent the offseason working on pitch recognition after his K troubles and hey, defense is apparently NOT like riding a bike.
Boy was that ever productive work on pitch recognition!!
Should have spent a little more on the MLB tapes, Matt. You mastered the Triple-A series, but that’s not cutting it.
by Matthew on Jun 7, 2010 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
So after we sweep the Rangers......
Shit.
I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.
by the other side on Jun 7, 2010 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm amazed that Carp coming up generated this much discusssion.
I guess it shows you how desparate everyone is for something to discuss besides how horrible this team looked over the weekend.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
Most of the discussion bordered on speculation that Kotchman would be released.
If it was known about Sweeney, there wouldn’t be as much to talk about.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 7, 2010 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions
We could always talk about volcanoes again.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 7, 2010 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm always up for that.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
Every time this comes up the Friends episode flashes through my mind. Where Joey read the
Where Joey read the V volume of the encyclopedia
So
Carp is up for Sweeney, but at the expense of Kotchman. All right!
by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 7, 2010 2:47 PM PDT up reply actions
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