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Take Heart


Are the M's done yet?

Star-divide

A lot of fans believe the Mariners are close to being out of the playoff hunt, if not completely out of the race already. Eight games behind the division leaders in early June is a sizable margin, especially when you have one of the worst offenses in the league and a questionable and, at times, highly flammable bullpen. Most NL lineups stack up favorably against the Mariners anemic offense, and they have to plug a pitcher somewhere into their lineup.

The Texas Rangers, the aforementioned division leaders, have been heating up lately offensively as well. Take a look at their monthly splits. Small sample size applies, and a BABIP of .383 looks pretty unsustainable. It suffices to say, however, that the Texas Rangers are a better offensive club than the Seattle Mariners.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (Say that in Spanish; Los Los Angeles Angeles de Anaheim. Sounds like Tommy and Timmy Timmons learned how to speak another language.) never seem to go away with Mike Scioscia at the helm.  They've beaten the M's soundly the last two games, are 10-4 against the M's and A's combined this season, and lost two games to Texas by a combined two runs.  They always seem to find a way to be in the playoff discussion come the end of the season.

As for the Oakland Athletics? I just can't bring myself to be too scared of the Oakland A's. They've been playing better ball than the M's, but the M's have been playing like a team full of 12-year-olds. I admittedly don't know much about their team, so anyone with insider information as to why the A's are better than the M's, please fill me in.

Yes, things look bleak for the Mariners. There are a lot of reasons to look at things and think that Jack Zduriencek should be selling some pieces soon. But I implore all of you ready to leap off of the bandwagon to keep your handholds for just a little while longer. This ship may be taking on water, but it's far from completely sunk. There are some dark spots that may be getting brighter.

Jose Lopez seems to be rounding into form. Take a look at these weekly splits. .349/.370/.581 over the past two weeks. In that same time, he's hit three of his four total homeruns. It may just be a little streak, but good hitting needs to start somewhere.  He's hopefully finding his "power" stroke again, and while the on-base skills still aren't there, he's seen a normalization of his BABIP, which can only mean good things.

Chone Figgins seems to be turning back into Chone Figgins, too. He's been getting on-base at a respectable clip for most of the season, but he's been on a recent tear when it comes to making his way onto the bases. His OBP over the last two weeks has been .426, largely due to a batting average of .308, an increase of nearly 100 points over his season average. That batting average is due in large part to a BABIP of .387. Here are Chone's weekly splits. Chone's career BABIP is .338, so the numbers he's posted over the past few weeks aren't outlandish.

This roster has some holes. First base, catcher, and designated hitter could all use an upgrade. We could all stand for Brandon League to turn into the Brandon League for whom we all thought Jack traded. I'd love to see Michael Saunders get some regular playing time. But I don't think this season has quite hit the spot where we should all give up hope for a successful season. We still have Felix, and Clifton, and Ichiro, and Franklin. If Figgins and Lopez continue their hot ways, and a few other players decide to play like real Major Leaguers, this team just might stand a chance. Call me an optimist, and I could just be grasping at straws here, but I'm not quite ready to stop bailing water and jump over the side. To be honest, I'd rather go down with the ship.

Poll
I, the Mariners fan, believe...
...the Mariners will turn this around and make a solid run at the playoffs.
32 votes
...the Mariners are done, that all hope is lost, and that Cliff Lee for a ML ready piece and some prospects sounds nice.
148 votes

180 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 51 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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We're as dead as an animal on the side of the road

The last two games plus the return of Snell and Rowland-Smith to the rotation are akin to being socked in the stomach.

Carlos Silvelite

by OceanBird on Jun 6, 2010 12:23 PM PDT reply actions  

I vote for secret option 3

I believe the mariners will scratch and claw back up around five hundred, giving us some hope, but never really making a run.

by BigR on Jun 6, 2010 12:23 PM PDT reply actions  

I'm going with this one as well.

They’re going to tease all summer—-a good stretch here, a bad stretch there—-tread water, and finish around 75-80 wins. Them’s the breaks when your rotation is two of the league’s best pitchers and a pile of crap.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Jun 6, 2010 7:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

A pile of crap?

I’m not sure who you are referring to as a pile of crap, since Vargas and Fister have outperformed Felix statistically this year. Yeah, Snell is a pile of crap. And RRS has been one too, I suppose he is back in the rotation. I think that the M’s have a pretty good rotation if Vargas and Fister keep it up. Maybe one of the best rotations when Bedard gets back. Can you imagine a rotation where Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez are putting up the worst stats? Those are both guys that can be considered aces.

by nemo1 on Jun 6, 2010 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

I would put money on it.

That by the time Bedard comes back (if at all) Felix’s stats will be better than Fister and Vargas. I’m not even sure which stats these are. As much as I love Fister and Vargas, they will not finish the season as well as they started it. We have wasted their best two months.

by Hopefulmsfan on Jun 7, 2010 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

To clarify.

My response was a bit lazy so I just looked at FIP and xFIP and Felix’s numbers are better than both Fister and Vargas already. Felix has also pitched more innings, had more strikeouts, and has a higher BABIP and HR/FB which means he’s put up better numbers with worse luck. The only stats Fister and Vargas have that are better are BB/9 and ERA, which, well…

by Hopefulmsfan on Jun 7, 2010 12:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Calling the season is not the same as jumping ship

…it simply means we shift focus to optimizing the 2011 product and restocking depth.

Damn, my eyeball tastes good.

by Gekko Mojo on Jun 6, 2010 1:28 PM PDT reply actions  

We may

Have some fight left in us, but not enough for a sizeable playoff run… I think the Rangers are about to run away with the AL WEST

It was all just a dream...

by MasinMud on Jun 6, 2010 1:37 PM PDT reply actions  

You're an optimist.

Dave Cameron pointed this out elsewhere, but to get to 90 wins for the year, we have to play the rest of the year the way Tampa’s played so far.

If you think this is a roster capable of playing .600 ball over 4 months, please pass whatever it is you’re smoking.

We will be doing pretty well JUST to get back to .500 by season’s end. I’ll actually be pretty happy if we do that- it probably means we’ve figured out some problems with this roster (which does indeed have some).

by eponymous_coward on Jun 6, 2010 4:21 PM PDT reply actions  

It hasn't been since the AL went to 3 divisions.

And note the “we will be doing pretty well”. Getting back to .500 means we play at a .557 clip the rest of the way out. That means we need to play like a 90 win team for four months.

Given that this team was pegged for mid to high 80s true talent, and that was BEFORE Jack Wilson went on the DL, our 1B turned into a huge pile of suck, Milton Bradley followed up his poor 2009 with a poorer 2010 which calls into question his value going forward, and the M’s having a backloaded schedule (lots of Royals and Orioles early, Yankees and Red Sox late) and so on, you’re basically asking for this team to get very, very lucky. JUST to make it to .500.

I don’t see it. It could happen, but it’s pretty pointless to plan on something that’s the baseball equivalent of drawing to an inside straight.

by eponymous_coward on Jun 7, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Want a third option.

I do not want anything for Cliff Lee. I want to watch him pitch even though this season is likely toast. Let’s take the two draft picks, unless an offer we can’t refuse comes along.

by Wilder. on Jun 6, 2010 4:34 PM PDT reply actions  

We're boned.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Jun 6, 2010 5:09 PM PDT reply actions  

So, the M's stink, Sounders stink..

We don’t have a basketball team to root for.. after last season, the Hawks are going to be frustrating..

Who’s got the koolaid? Any little league games worth watching this week?

by d0nkey on Jun 7, 2010 10:06 AM PDT reply actions  

World Cup starts Friday!

Don’t like soccer? Now’s a great time to learn! If nothing else it eats up a month of the summer for you!

by pdb on Jun 7, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

Expect lay-ups.

Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
A Work in Progress

by JLProck on Jun 8, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

More like expect frequent fouls.

There are stretches that can be tough, but you’ll also see the flip side of that coin when they bring their shooting shoes.

Charter Member: Dave Sims Sweet Hat Club

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jun 9, 2010 2:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

As opposed to their high heels. What a bitch to play in.

"I might be a butt hoarder...speed skating butts that is." - wazzu93

by kevin_ess on Jun 9, 2010 2:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh wow.

Well played.

Charter Member: Dave Sims Sweet Hat Club

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jun 9, 2010 2:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Carroll, I REPRESENT, my buddy.

"I might be a butt hoarder...speed skating butts that is." - wazzu93

by kevin_ess on Jun 9, 2010 3:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

The Storm have dropped 90+ points on their opponents each of the last two home games.

It’s been enjoyable to watch from the KeyArena catwalks.

Charter Member: Dave Sims Sweet Hat Club

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jun 9, 2010 2:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'll admit I haven't watched much of the Storm.

Pretty much any WNBA I’ve seen has been on ESPN, flipping through the channels and stopping out of curiosity.
But I have seen stretches of what seem like 5 straight minutes of back and forth missed lay-ups and easy shots. From the sounds of things though, it seems like that’s by far more the exception than the rule.

by chezbergrur on Jun 9, 2010 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hockey needs to hurry the fuck up and come to Seattle.

Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.

by JAH on Jun 7, 2010 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results.

We are 6 – 18 against our own division. That’s a .250 winning percentage. Playing these same teams over and over, expecting .600 instead of .250 is insanity.

We are done, toast, kaput. It’s time to think about next year and restocking young talent.

by HititHere on Jun 7, 2010 11:42 AM PDT reply actions  

There was no dictionary involved

I just spouted verbatim that annoying statement that so many of us have heard before, so my apologies.

by HititHere on Jun 7, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

But the point is (that you seem to understand) is that us going 6-18 isn't necessarily indicative of our true talent level

if we were to go 600-1800 against those same teams and then repeat it and expect to do significantly better, that would be much more insane

by seattlebruin on Jun 7, 2010 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

Weirdly, season series results seem to be inherently SSSes

So before I make my head explode, I’ll just agree with you.

We’re clearly not playing on par with our true talent level, though I don’t think our true talent level is enough to play .600 ball against division rivals.

by HititHere on Jun 7, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

All points taken

And noted. I still hold my opinion that playing 6-18 ball against our own division thus far is a pretty damning statement about our playoff chances.

by HititHere on Jun 7, 2010 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not me.

Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
A Work in Progress

by JLProck on Jun 8, 2010 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bold prediction.

Most of us will be dead well before that.

"I might be a butt hoarder...speed skating butts that is." - wazzu93

by kevin_ess on Jun 10, 2010 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

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