A Fun Exercise

by katal on Jun 27, 2010 10:54 PM PDT

I've been thinking: "Golly! The Mariners sure have had a lot of talent over the years. Even though they have yet to earn a single World Series title, and they own a mere three division crowns, I bet the talent we have seen on this club could stack up against the talent any other club has enjoyed over the same period of time."

Here is a way to examine the idea. "A fun exercise", if you will. Teams have 25-man rosters, so let's go back to each of the last 25 seasons, including 2010. We will take one player that was on the Mariners from each season, trying to build a 25-man roster this way. Perhaps you will wish to attempt this exercise for other teams! It is my hypothesis that a "super-Mariner teams" would be extremely tough to beat compared to even the best talent the Braves, yankees or Red Sox could put together.

My attempt at creating such a legendary team is below. As a means to quickly judge how productive each player was in each given year, I included their WAR value for the season.

2010 - Cliff Lee (3.7)

2009 - Franklin Gutierrez (6.1)

2008 - Felix Hernandez (3.9)

2007 - Kenji Johjima (3.0)

2006 - Adrian Beltre (4.9)

2005 - Richie Sexson (4.2)

2004 - Ichiro Suzuki (7.2)

2003 - Joel Piniero (3.8)

2002 - Mike Cameron (5.1)

2001 - Bret Boone (7.8)

2000 - Kazuhiro Sasaki (0.7)

1999 - Freddy Garcia (3.8)

1998 - Jamie Moyer (5.3)

1997 - Ken Griffey Jr. (9.4)

1996 - Alex Rodriguez (9.8)

1995 - Edgar Martinez (7.5)

1994 - Jay Buhner (2.8)

1993 - Randy Johnson (7.1)

1992 - Dave Fleming (4.4)

1991 - Brian Holman (2.5)

1990 - Erik Hanson (6.9)

1989 - Harold Reynolds (4.6)

1988 - Dave Valle (1.7)

1987 - Mark Langston (6.5)

1986 - Matt Young (1.8)

My starting pitchers: Randy Johnson (L), Cliff Lee (L), Erik Hanson, Mark Langston (L), Jamie Moyer (L)

Bullpen: Felix Hernandez, Dave Fleming (L), Brian Holman, Freddy Garcia, Joel Piniero, Kazuhiro Sasaki, and Matt Young (L)

Starting on defense: Kenji Johjima, Richie Sexson, Bret Boone, Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr. (L), Franklin Gutierrez, and Ichiro Suzuki (L).

DH: Edgar Martinez
Sitting on the bench: Dave Valle, Harold Reynolds, Jay Buhner, and Mike Cameron.

I have two quibbles with the team. One is that the rotation is awfully left handed. The counter-point is that every three or four game series would either feature at least one righty (Hanson) or two ridiculously dominate pitchers who are virtually immune to platoon spits. The other issue is how right handed the offense is, especially the bench. Thankfully, enough righties on this team did not discriminate in what type of pitchers they chose to abuse. Facing right handed pitching would not be a problem.

Tweet Comment 29 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Not optimal

You’re better off taking 2009 Felix (6.9 WAR) than Guti because that gives you a 1.6 WAR boost (and another RH) to your rotation and the downgrade from Guti to Cameron is only 1.0 WAR.

You could take 2003 Mike Cameron (still 5.1 WAR), which allows you to take 2002 John Olerud (4.8 WAR) allowing you to get Richie Sexson and Joel Pineiro off your team.

Also, it would probably be better to not consider SPs for RP slots because a lot of SPs accumulate WAR due to increased usage, which they wouldn’t get as a RP.

by Matthew on Jun 28, 2010 6:34 AM PDT reply actions

The dropoff from Richie Sexson to the next player in 2005 is huge though.

Jeremy Reed is a full 2 wins below Sexson as the only player not currently on the list. I do agree you should use Felix instead of Guti though.

M's fan in PA, soon to be LA

by perfectstrat on Jun 28, 2010 6:57 AM PDT up reply actions

You're talking bench roles though

Again, full time players wouldn’t accrue full time WAR in a bench role

by Matthew on Jun 28, 2010 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions

Also, fuck Richie Sexson

by Matthew on Jun 28, 2010 7:03 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

Exactly.

by el pato on Jun 28, 2010 7:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Good call regarding replacing Gutierrez with Felix.

I waffled on using SPs for RP slots before ultimately concluding that a good SP would make a good RP. Would you happen to know offhand if there’s any research on the subject? I performed a couple searches, but found no answers.

by katal on Jun 28, 2010 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions

They certainly would in most cases,

but obviously their WAR contributions would be reduced. Ideally, there’d be a discount factor applied to RP and bench slots and then the whole thing optimized. If FG had team WAR leaderboards going back to ’85, I could do that.

by Matthew on Jun 28, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions

I was going to say this

by Poochie on Jun 28, 2010 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions

Plus I would take A-Rod from 2000, Jay Buhner from '96, and Griffey from '94

Freeing me to use RJ from 1997, and Dave Valle from 1993 (2.7 WAR, clearly his best season)

Or if you like you can take Griffey from 93 and a bullpen arm from 94.

by Poochie on Jun 28, 2010 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions

We should probably clarify what database we're using.

I presume you used fWAR for the 00s and rWAR for the rest. I think its better to just stick with one system.

M's fan in PA, soon to be LA

by perfectstrat on Jun 28, 2010 6:43 AM PDT reply actions

FanGraphs has WAR going back

by Matthew on Jun 28, 2010 6:46 AM PDT up reply actions

Wow I look stupid.

I was not aware of this. I guess that means we’re using fWAR?

M's fan in PA, soon to be LA

by perfectstrat on Jun 28, 2010 6:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Exactly; I used FanGraphs' WAR database for everything.

by katal on Jun 28, 2010 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions

It makes me sad that you have to take Kenji over Dan Wilson

Wilson in ‘96 was 3.9 WAR, almost a full win better than Kenji in 2007. But It’s hard to pass up A-Rod’s monster 1996. Plus you’d have to take someone else in ’07 like Guillen (2.4 WAR) or Ibanez (only 1.0 WAR, mostly due to a horrific -19.5!!! UZR).

Also, I hated watching Kaz pitch. That guy could have a 20 run lead in the 9th, pitching in the arctic circle, and he would be sweating up a storm.

by HititHere on Jun 28, 2010 10:12 AM PDT reply actions

Just a counter example. I did this quick and easy. Trying to construct as real a bullpen as possible, going through the years quickly and picking about the best available season for each.

The Yankees:

C – Posada 6.2 (2000)
1B – Mattingly 7.7 (1986)
2B – Cano 4.5 (2010)
3B – Rodriguez 9.4 (2005)
SS – Jeter 7.5 (1999)
LF – Rickey Henderson 6.1 (1988)
CF – Williams 6.7 (1995)
RF – O’Neill 5.8 (1998)
DH – Matsui 2.4 (2007)

Bench – Willie Randolph 5 (1987)
Bench – Barfield 4.9 (1990)
Bench – Boggs 4.4 (1994)
Bench – Damon 3.1 (2006)

SP – Sabathia 6.0 (2009)
SP – Pettitte 7.4 (1997)
SP – Mussina 7.1 (2001)
SP – Clemens 4.9 (2003)
SP – Melido Perez 5.9 (1992)

RP – Lee Guetterman 1.2 (1989)
RP – Scott Sanderson 4.4 (1991)
RP – Chamberlain 3.3 (2008)
RP – Jimmy Key 5.2 (1993)
RP – Rivera 4.4 (1996)
RP – O. Hernandez 2.9 (2002)
RP – Tom Gordon 3.1 (2004)

Total WAR – 129.5

by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 28, 2010 11:46 AM PDT reply actions

If a team had 129 WAR, they would have roughly -14 losses.

M's fan in PA, soon to be LA

by perfectstrat on Jun 28, 2010 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions

Twins

I love anything that lets me play on B-Ref/Fangraphs for an hour!

2010: Justin Morneau, 1B, 4.5
2009: Joe Mauer, C, 8.0
2008: Scott Baker, RHP, 3.5
2007: Jason Bartlett, 2.8
2006: Joe Nathan, RHP, 3.1
2005: Johan Santana, LHP, 7.6
2004: Brad Radke, RHP, 5.7
2003: LaTroy Hawkins, RHP, 2.8
2002: Jacque Jones, RF, 5.0
2001: Corey Koskie, 3B, 5.8
2000: Mark Redman, LHP, 2.8
1999: Eric Milton, LHP, 4.2
1998: Matt Lawton, RF, 3.3
1997: Rich Becker, RF, 2.3
1996: Chuck Knoblauch, 2B, 8.4
1995: Jeff Reboulet, SS, 2.2
1994: Shane Mack, LF, 3.9
1993: Brian Harper, C, 2.5
1992: John Smiley, LHP, 5.7
1991: Kevin Tapani, RHP, 5.4
1990: Kent Hrbek, 1B, 2.9
1989: Rick Aguilera, RHP, 2.1
1988: Kirby Puckett, CF, 7.7
1987: Frank Viola, LHP, 6.2
1986: Gary Gaetti, 3B, 5.7

TOTAL WAR: 114.1

STARTERS
C: Joe Mauer
1B: Justin Morneau
2B: Chuck Knoblauch
3B: Gary Gaetti
SS: Jason Bartlett
LF: Shane Mack
CF: Kirby Puckett
RF: Jacque Jones
DH: Corey Koskie

BENCH
Kent Hrbek, 1B
Brian Harper, C
Jeff Reboulet, SS
Matt Lawton, OF
Rich Becker, OF

SP1: Johan Santana
SP2: Frank Viola
SP3: John Smiley
SP4: Brad Radke
SP5: Eric Milton

BULLPEN
Mark Redman
Scott Baker
Kevin Tapani
Rick Aguilera
LaTroy Hawkins
Joe Nathan

Stop The Wave!

by ConorGlassey on Jun 28, 2010 6:49 PM PDT reply actions