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Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ St. Louis Cardinals

Seattle: 24-39
Saint Louis: 34-29

MARINERS Δ Ms CARDINALS EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)
-59.7 (28th) -1.8 15.3 (8th) St. Louis
FIELDING (UZR) 7.4 (11th) 0.0 4.7 (13th) Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)
0.8 (19th) 4.5 27.3 (2nd) St. Louis
BULLPEN (tRA)
-9.4 (22nd) -1.9 2.3 (14th) St. Louis
OVERALL(RAA)
-60.9 (26th) 0.8 49.6 (6th) SAINT LOUIS






 

One benefit to having the World Cup played close to zulu time and the Mariners playing away from the west coast is nearly non-stop sporting action on TV. One downside is wow, 4am is early. I don't know where this introduction was originally going in my head which is the sort of thing that happens when you get approximately 37 seconds of sleep in the last rainbow candy pencil eyeball.

I was thinking about the game of baseball this morning. Have you ever pondered how baseball might have been radically different if the early standards adopted had been even slightly different? Think of the base paths. Why 90 feet? It's an odd figure to have settled on, but considering how close plays at first base (and others) are, it seems almost divine.

If it were 100 feet between bases, players like Ichiro would be decimated because the infield hits would drop almost entirely away, stretching out doubles would be that much tougher and the stolen base would become drastically more difficult. If it were 80 feet, just the opposite would happen and baseball would be filled with many more Ichiro-type players. Don't even get me started on 60'6. 

Mon Jun 14, 16:05: Luke French* vs. Adam Wainwright

Tue Jun 15, 17:15: Ryan Rowland-Smith* vs. Jeff Suppan

Wed Jun 16, 17:15: Jason Vargas* vs. Jaime Garcia*

Oh right, a baseball series. Well, the Cardinals are really good. Colby Rasmus leads the team in wOBA which is notable because:

A) His team also employs Albert Pujols.
B) Colby Rasmus plays center field.
C) Colby Rasmus is only 23 years old.

Also, Jaime Garcia is really good and just 23. So is Adam Wainwright. The good part, I mean. Not the 23 years old part. Jeff Suppan also isn't 23 and boy is he really really not good. Except Dave Duncan will probably make him good. I bet Jeff Suppan ends up a Met sometime in the next two seasons.

The 2010 Mariners have a park adjusted team wOBA of .304. Last year with the Mariners, Jack Hannahan had a park adjusted wOBA of .307. I really wish our team would hit. I know they can, at least more than they have been. I'm not asking for a lot here, just some consistent semblance of an offensive threat to keep my interest up.

Seven US states* have the Cardinal as their official state bird. Missouri is not one of them. The seven states that do form one connected landmass extending basically straight east from Missouri to the ocean. Missouri's state bird however is the blue bird.

*Seven US states? Seven United States states? That reads weird, but omitting the "US" part reads weird to me as well. I am in a weirdly self-reflective writing mood.

Luke French Ryan Rowland-Smith Jason Vargas
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 46% 88 25 30 30
Change 28% 81 30 75 20
Slider 17% 79 70 50 20
Sinker 9% 79 80 80 20
Overall -- -- 55 60 20
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 45% 88 45 65 35
Curve 18% 72 30 75 70
Change 18% 80 50 50 40
Sinker 13% 88 25 55 20
Slider 5% 79 45 70 40
Overall -- -- 35 60 35
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 47% 87 50 35 30
Change 22% 80 80 75 35
Sinker 21% 86 30 50 30
Slider 7% 82 20 40 40
Overall -- -- 55 45 30

Adam Wainwright Jeff Suppan Jaime Garcia
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 29% 91 25 60 60
Curve 23% 74 75 65 75
Sinker 21% 91 25 55 60
Slider 20% 85 60 55 65
Change 8% 82 45 60 55
Overall -- -- 60 60 70
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 48% 87 25 60 65
Change 22% 81 40 50 55
Slider 13% 83 25 40 50
Curve 11% 72 55 20 30
Sinker 5% 87 25 25 45
Overall -- -- 25 35 60
Pitch%SpKBBGB
Fastball 32% 90 70 75 80
Sinker 30% 89 70 65 65
Slider 14% 85 75 75 80
Curve 13% 75 75 30 80
Change 11% 83 75 20 75
Overall -- -- 80 45 80

Comment 73 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Ah, but longer or shorter baselines would make the infield bigger or smaller

I don’t know if that would completely cancel out the effect on players like Ichiro, but it would be a mitigating factor.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 14, 2010 10:11 AM PDT reply actions  

Plus, bunt hits and all that.

An interesting thought nonetheless. I wonder how players decided on that distance.

by jwiscarson on Jun 14, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

I feel like that would still be overcome by the extra running time needed.

I did a cursory glance for a 100’ diamond when it came to stolen bases. First base would be about seven feet further away from the pitcher’s mound so the runner could take about an additional two feet of lead off. The throw from catcher to second base would now be about 14 feet longer, granting the runner the equivalent of around four feet of sprinting distance.

Overall, the runner gains six feet of advantage, but has to traverse an extra ten feet. Not exactly the same thing, but ultimately I think it’s advantageous to the defense the bigger the base paths because running is slower than throwing.

by Matthew on Jun 14, 2010 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fielders playing deeper would have a harder time getting to his swinging bunt singles

also the extra distance between bases may mean bigger holes between fielders. Does the mound move back as well in this scenario?

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 14, 2010 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well, not directly

but isn’t the pitchers mound supposed to be a certain distance from the end of the infield at the foul line? If so it would still have to be moved back. Unless the bases were moved back but the infield stayed the same size.

by Slow Country on Jun 14, 2010 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

The one that always makes me go hmmmm

is the height of the pitcher’s mound. Or is it pitchers’ mound? Anyway. Why was it originally 15 inches? Why is it now 10 and not, say, 8? 12? I know these things probably aren’t arbitrary, but I’d love to know where that came from.

by pdb on Jun 14, 2010 10:20 AM PDT reply actions  

You're misinterpreting the charts. Pitch grades are relative, not absolute.

Fastballs are compared against only other fastballs, not all pitches. An 80 rating for ground balls on a four-seamer just means it’s at the top of the four-seamer class for ground balls. You can’t compare it to a 75 rating for ground balls on a sinker and say the four-seamer is better at generating ground balls.

by Matthew on Jun 14, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Oooooh

got it

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 14, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm unsure I never got around to looking it up, but

I’ve always wondered if the bases were always 90 feet away from one another (and the space between home and the pitcher’s mound, etc.), or if it’s something that evolved over time in the mid-late 1800s.

We’re going to get obliterated this series.

by katal on Jun 14, 2010 10:37 AM PDT reply actions  

Maybe not.

Player only meeting!

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 14, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

I have unscientifically found those to only be effective in winning a game immediately after the meeting takes place.

The players would have to have one around 2:00 today (pacific time) if they’re to have a prayer tonight.

by katal on Jun 14, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

It really is amazing how all sports decided upon their standards.

But baseball is especially unique. There is no standard in place for outfield dimensions. The game would drastically be different with small changes, as you have mentioned. It’s crazy baseball settled on these standards so long ago and the only thing to have been altered is the mound height (as far as I know).

by Wilder. on Jun 14, 2010 10:38 AM PDT reply actions  

This includes 9 innings with 3 outs per inning.

No clock like most other major sports. And why 9 innings, not 8 or 10?

by Wilder. on Jun 14, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Before this standard, the winning team was the first to score 21 "aces" (runs.)

I’m guessing that, as defenses evolved, getting 21 runs was taking too long, so teams settled on 9 innings—what might have been the amount of innings a very good offense would need to score 21.

Eyes?

by Jesus Jones on Jun 14, 2010 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Matthew:

Were Duncan to leave the Cardinals, how large of a contract would he be worth as a free agent, would you say?

by katal on Jun 14, 2010 10:38 AM PDT reply actions  

I would not say because I have no idea.

It was merely a joke about his reputation. I have no knowledge on if Duncan actually has a repeatable skill is harnessing more talent from pitchers.

by Matthew on Jun 14, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Better wait till he says which team is getting swept.

Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines

by the other side on Jun 14, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Is it Cliff against Suppan?

If so that’s the only game we have a real chance in.

Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines

by the other side on Jun 14, 2010 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

I honestly thought this was a different thread and didn't feel like looking it up.

I guess I should either care more or less. I did like the preview by the way.

Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines

by the other side on Jun 14, 2010 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

You thought this was a different thread?

A different thread discussing the Mariners playing the Cardinals?

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 14, 2010 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah thought it was the OT.

I read the preview and immediately forgot the pitching matchups because there were none I cared about.

Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines

by the other side on Jun 14, 2010 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, unless they shuffle him back to the bullpen

and give Olsen the spot start.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 14, 2010 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

I noticed you switched to UZR for fielding on the previews

I read the explanation for the (?) you used early on and I don’t remember the details now but I do remember it was because using UZR so early in the season is pretty much useless since UZR needs a large sample. Just curious if there was any reasoning behind when to make that switch? Is there a rule where you need “X” number of games for UZR to actually mean something?

by shuswapslugger on Jun 14, 2010 11:29 AM PDT reply actions  

UZR was a little funky early on and wasn't available for the first week

so he stayed with +/- and Total Zone (right?) until UZR settled a little bit. For a player UZR takes about 2 1/2 – 3 season to normalize and for a team it’s somewhere around 2 1/2 – 3 season divided by the number of fielders.

by Jackle Mackle on Jun 14, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh. It wasn't TZ, it was Defensive Runs Saved.

And the final number was calculated by DRS + (+/-) / 2

by Jackle Mackle on Jun 14, 2010 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions  

Without the ability to play a DH, there's realistically not a real problem with Bradley over Saunders in left.

The issue is more when the Mariners play in an AL park and make a choice involving Bradley in left and anyone else at DH. The inefficiency comes from the defensive upgrade of Saunders over Bradley in conjunction with the lack of a big enough offensive upgrade over Saunders to justify the hit on defense. As much as it would be nice to see Saunders play every day now that the games are nearly meaningless, Bradley is a part of the future as well and trying to get him right offensively is important.

by abender20 on Jun 14, 2010 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

I wonder if it would be worth it or even possible to teach Bradley first base.

I imagine with everything else going on with him right now, I wouldn’t expect it but it might be a neat off season project.

by Jed MC on Jun 14, 2010 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

You know,

if we were anywhere within sniffing distance of even third place I’d consider it, but playing as we are for 2011 I’d rather keep Milton healthy and happy, and both of those probably involve him playing LF.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jun 14, 2010 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Another thing interesting to think about

is the width of home plate. If it were smaller you would see a much more offensive minded game, with hitters being able to be more selective. If it were bigger, they’d be at a disadvantage.

17" is another one of the really weird measurements in baseball.

by killer_ewok18 on Jun 14, 2010 1:29 PM PDT reply actions  

As a Cardinals fan, the hopeless tone of your post makes me happy. As a Mariners fan, not so much.

Given the Ms situation, I feel like I can root for the Cards to sweep and still get the best possible outcome for both teams. I mean, maybe it’s time to hope for the number one overall pick. Excuse me while Jon S. the Mariners fan goes and vomits at that last sentence.

by Jon S. on Jun 14, 2010 2:56 PM PDT reply actions  

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