Where do we stand heading into 2011?
by lailaihei on Jun 11, 2010 4:28 AM PDT
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PrintAny realistic hope of playing October baseball in 2010 is over, and it's time to start thinking about the future. Fortunately, we have a strong core and some valuable assets that will carry us into next year. Unfortunately, we have a slew of places that need upgrades in order for us to become serious contenders. I thought it would be good to take a look at the holes we have so we can see what the FO needs to do before next April.
Position Players
C - Adam Moore?
1B - (?)
2B - Chone Figgins
3B - Jose Lopez
SS - Jack Wilson?
LF - Michael Saunders
CF - Franklin Gutierrez
RF - Ichiro!
DH - Milton Bradley?
Bench
C - Rob Johnson
1B/PH - (?)
IF - Josh Wilson
OF - Ryan Langerhans
Pitching
SP - Felix Hernandez
SP - Doug Fister
SP - Jason Vargas
SP - RRS?
SP - Pineda?
I won't even speculate on bullpen, which as we all know isn't a big deal.
The Mariners have a solid core, and actually a pretty complete collection of position players. They will definitely need to pick up a 1B and would probably like to pick up a starting catcher in the offseason. A backup first baseman who can hit some would be a very critical addition, as well. Milton Bradley can't be counted on to stay healthy, even with DHing every day. Only having a utility infielder to backup 1B means when the first baseman goes down, you have an offensive liability playing an offensive position without the ability to make up the gap with their glove. Having a RoboRob, Langerhans, JoWilson bench is pretty okay considering their respective roles.
The starting rotation after Felix is a collection of 5th starters that pitch like 4th starters sometimes. Pineda could see time with the club sooner rather than later, but he isn't good enough at this point to slot in behind Felix. Having great starting pitching isn't a necessity, but having the "feast or famine" that we have this year, minus Cliff Lee, minus the amazing performance of Fister thus far means there will be a whole lot more famine than we've seen so far this year.
Summary:
We need and will almost certainly acquire: A first baseman, at least one good starting pitcher.
We should upgrade to contend in 2011: Catcher, SS, 1B/PH bench role, our other rotation spots.
If we solve all those problems we would look to grab players at: LF, DH, bullpen.
This team doesn't have that much dead weight, but we aren't very close to even an 85 win team in 2011 either. Trading Cliff Lee for someone that can fill one of those holes would be a good start, but even then we should expect Z to be busy once again before next April rolls around.
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http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/06/10/the-2011-mariners/
...and now I'm here
After I hit publish I thought "I wonder if USSM already did this."
And now, after reading it, it’s almost completely the same conclusion I reached.
Oh well, it was a good mental exercise.
This may be the one post whose comment section has completely turned me off from actively participating in USSM conversation ever again.
I knew the comments were getting worse and worse but man…
I think Dave has gotten fed up with the comments at USSM too
Evidenced by some of his comment replies, with such gems as “Carlos Peguero sucks. He’s not a prospect.” He doesn’t even bother explaining why to the jokers who don’t want to do their won 5 seconds of research.
I love this one from random commenter:
“Figgins has to go…we should put him on waivers and see if someone bites on him. If no one does then trade him and up to 10 million in cash for a bucket of balls.”
I hate how Figgins has started this season too, but…really?
I stopped reading USSM comments a while ago.
Sometimes I ctrl+f "Dave " so I can read his responses, but lately none of the questions posed are even worth reading the responses to.
If you really want an ulcer you can always head over to the ESPN boards.
by FairWeatherFred on Jun 11, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but the difference is that USSM and Fangraphs readers should be smarter than that.
Stupidity is expected at ESPN.
by Eyeball Kid on Jun 11, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
He recently went as far as threatening to close comments indefinitely.
Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
A Work in Progress
I will love when that happens because then many of them will migrate here.
Who wants to step up and run LL Immigration?
I nominate Robert.
That would be very entertaining to watch
*Raises hand*
Though I’ll be corrupt and take bribes.
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 11, 2010 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't care about corruption, in fact it's encouraged
but we can’t afford to have porous borders.
Arm the masses.
I call dibs on Felix.
I can't resist clicking "Rec" when I see a post with four [of them] already.
by thehemogoblin on Jun 11, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Being a Lookout Landing mod is on my bucket list.
Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
A Work in Progress
I'm 100% fed up with being nice!
I used to make comments like this one from “Griffey brings back old mojo”, but now I just want
You had Dave, JH, and DMZ all trying to rein things in there.
But yeah, Peguero hasn’t been good since April.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
I have to wonder if Lopez is really a part of the 2011 team.
If Ackley is ready by April, then he probably slots in at 2B, and Figgins moves back to 3B, and the Mariners save 4.25M for other needs.
As Dave writes in his post, they’ll need all of these upgrades with about 10M.
Lopez is probably a ~2 win player going forward, maybe worse, and he has value at his contract.
If Ackley really forces his hand, we could trade him, but Lopez is far from our biggest problem. I’d sooner upgrade 1B, C, SP (twice over), SS, and DH.
Firstly, Lopez is likely more than a 2 win player. He has always been 2 wins between bat and glove, but his glove has added much more value this year.
Secondly, it’s a matter of roster construction. Where do you play Ackley (2nd), Figgins and Lopez at the same time? If you can get something useful for Lopez and assume we’re committed to Figgins, as he has 3 years left, you use Loafie to get help elsewhere.
I remember some talk about Lopez to 1B.
I know that in the offseason, it was absurd to think about when 3B was open for him. But going into next year, would he fit in the 1B role?
My guess is no, since a good portion of that 2 WAR comes from his glove, but my gut seems to think that he would be able to handle the position if needed.
I guess it comes down to a) could he pass as a replacement level 1B or b) could we actually get something useful for him.
I think the problem with Loafie at 1B
Is that he profiles as an above-average offensive 2nd baseman, but a below-average offensive 1st baseman. You expect a lot of offensive firepower from a good 1st baseman. He’d be in the bottom tier…damaging to the team AND his trade value.
I get that.
The rest of the 1B players we have are also in the same below-average group. Except Loafie brings a little more glove to the table.
So using him somewhere (since his contract is favorable to us) rather than trying to trade him (assuming the rest of the league isn’t all that high on Loafie) wouldn’t that be the best option?
We don't need more 1WAR first basemen. We have plenty. Loafie doesn't hit well enough to justify playing there.
Also, his defensive skillset isn’t going to make him such a great 1b that he’d overcome that. I’d guess that he’s probably average to slightly below average at first.
Okay.
I’m not arguing that.
I’m pondering over possible solutions for the day we get Figgins at 3B and Ackley at 2B.
Do we just cut Loafie? I wouldn’t think that would be wise. I would be cautious to think that we could get something of value for him via trade otherwise we probably already would have done so right?
So we have a favorable contract with him, he has a decent glove, and he isn’t a complete waste of life at the plate either (although, some may disagree and I wouldn’t argue). So why wouldn’t a 1 WAR be okay there if we put our resources towards filling the rotation or SS or whatever?
Because we're not going to end up with drastically above average catching, LF, DH, SS solutions as of now.
1B is a deep talent pool and it’s pretty silly to waste that position on a craphole.
I propose that we call this the Kotchman Principle from now on.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
by misterjonez on Jun 11, 2010 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
Yeah this does sort of put us in a bind, especially because players of Lopez's ilk were basically valued as worthless last offseason.
If we could trade him for a piece that helps us out somewhere else more (SP perhaps?) then I’d be all for it.
Is Ackley knocking on the door so hard anyway? I know we have incentive to bring him up next season, but does it really look like he’s going to be ready to start right out of the gate in 2011?
If he continues to hit like he has the last month and a half? Yes.
We’ve seen young players come up and contribute more and more the last 5 years. I think he spends the 2nd half in Tacoma, and it all depends how he does there.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
You have to ask yourself if you'd rather have
a 2 win player who makes 4 mil or a 3 win player who makes 9 mil. In that way of thinking, Jose Lopez is probably more useful than Figgins to the 2011 team. You probably won’t be able to get much value from trading either Lopze or Figgins after their horrible start which is too bad. I think the most logical idea is probably to keep Ackley in AAA next year to preserve his service time.
by Edgar for Pres on Jun 11, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
That isn't logical at all. If Ackley is ready, we're paying him 1.5 mil a year anyway and he should be playing.
Figgins will be hard to trade, but if Loafie hits some more dingers then he shouldn’t be too hard to sell as a 3b.
This kinda answers my question above.
If you think we have a decent chance at shopping him as a 3B then I’m all for it.
I guess I’m just not imagining a good return coming from him. But maybe he could bring some young talent in or something.
Why do you think Figgins is harder to trade than Lopez?
Why do you think Lopez has more trade value? If he could have been traded for anything, I would have expected him to be traded by now.
by Edgar for Pres on Jun 12, 2010 12:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Lopez is valuable.
Why would we trade him for anything?
by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 12, 2010 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Because there's a position crunch at 2B/3B with Ackley and Figgins, and other teams may see his value and give the M's something valuable in return.
I can't resist clicking "Rec" when I see a post with four [of them] already.
by thehemogoblin on Jun 12, 2010 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Also, why would you want to keep Figgins and get rid of Lopez?
by Edgar for Pres on Jun 11, 2010 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah really
Look at it objectively. Lopez is going to give you ~ 2 WAR for 2011 and costs 4.5 million. Figgins gives you ~ 3 WAR for 2011 and costs 9 million. Figgins also is paid $17 million over 2012-2013 which represents a risk to the team. I like Figgins but if you ask me which I’d rather trade, I’d probably chose to trade Figgins because it opens up some more payroll flexibility for now and the future. i can understand why people would rather trade Lopez over Figgins but I don’t think its crazy to get rid of Figgins and keep Lopez.
by Edgar for Pres on Jun 12, 2010 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Why not move Figgins to LF?
If Saunders isn’t hitting?
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 11, 2010 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Does Figgins have any time logged at SS?
He seems plenty rangey, and his hands seem quick enough. Maybe this is too much of a stretch for him
He has a few.
But if I remember correctly he wasn’t impressive. Plus he doesn’t have the arm for short.
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 11, 2010 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Don't you think if his arm was capable of third base, it would be capable for short as well?
I can't resist clicking "Rec" when I see a post with four [of them] already.
by thehemogoblin on Jun 11, 2010 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Theres a difference of about 10-15 Ft on most throws from short.
3B’s generally play in/even with the bag and don’t have to make the throw from the hole.
Not to mention we moved him to 2nd because of his arm.
by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 11, 2010 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess the two years of Little League I played 10 years ago have officially lost their usefulness.
This does make sense.
I can't resist clicking "Rec" when I see a post with four [of them] already.
by thehemogoblin on Jun 11, 2010 6:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Another difference between 3B and SS
is that 3B plays are generally quicker to complete than a SS play, due to the distance of the two positions from home. So a 3B generally has more time to plant and get a mechanically sound throw off to 1B, whereas a SS often must make a play without setting his feet perfectly. The effect is that a SS must often rely more on raw arm strength.
There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.
by misterjonez on Jun 11, 2010 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Makes a lot of sense. I probably didn't think that comment through.
Wouldn’t be the first time.
I can't resist clicking "Rec" when I see a post with four [of them] already.
by thehemogoblin on Jun 12, 2010 2:25 AM PDT up reply actions
Just because he's versatile doesn't mean you want to move him all over the place.
He’s good, but he’s not Mark McLemore.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
God I miss that guy
Never knew what happened to him ’til that first Texas game where he was in the booth talking to Sims or something.
Mark McLemore was the man.
Now we have Tui.
by FairWeatherFred on Jun 11, 2010 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, THAT guy was the definition of a "utility player".
He could play 5 spots in 5 days and still hit too.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
Figgins hasn't succeeded defensively anywhere but 3B.
I vote we stick him back there and get a stopgap for Ackley.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 11, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Just switch Figgins and Loafie back.
Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
A Work in Progress
Eh.
If we have them both I think it’s negligible and we should just leave them be. But if Loafie gets traded, then move Figgins to third because he’s not nearly as valuable at 2B.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 11, 2010 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Why is he more valuable at 3rd than he is at 2nd?
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
Career UZR/150 at 3B: 9.3
Career UZR/150 at 2B: -6.6
And his defense at 2B hasn’t gotten better with regular playing time this year. He’s put up a dreadful -4.2 so far (-14.6 over 150 games).
by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 11, 2010 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow.
I didn’t know the splits were that big. You’d think with his skill set he could play 2nd better than that.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
I think its still ok to use his skillset to say he should be played at 2B instead of 3B
There are a lot of other factors that could create that sort of career split. For example he has played more 2B early in his career and 3B late in his career. It would be unusual that a player improves as he ages but it might also explain the splits.
by Edgar for Pres on Jun 12, 2010 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions
The errors are really hurting Figgins UZR.
Also that he makes many of the errors on his rangier plays hurts the overall numbers as well. From watching, his range up the middle is not as good as I thought it would be, although it is better than Lopez’. His range to his left is good but that seems to be where a lot of the errors happen.
I don't understand your definition of "solid core" ...
… and your comment that we “aren’t very close to even an 85 win team”.
These notions are inconsistent. While I certainly agree with the latter, the “core” looks shaky. And, while we wait for young guys to mature and contribute, how much decline will we see from Figgins, Bradley and Ichiro?
I’m not pessimistic by any means, but there is a whole lot of uncertainty out there which makes how we spend our FA $ so critical.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Hmm, maybe I should have been more specific.
If you look at a team like the Angels who have a ton of good players but no superstars, it’s pretty hard to upgrade significantly because everyone is above replacement level but not great.
We have Felix, Ichiro, and Gutierrez who are all star players. When you have 3 players who will be 12+ WAR next season there’s something to build on. On top of that, we have some cost-controlled players who fill in nicely. We have a lot of weaknesses, but 3 championship-leading players is not one of them. It’s easier to replace our 0-1 WAR starters than it is for the Angels to find places to upgrade, for instance.
So basically, our team is not great at all now, but if we can fill in some league average players for a small salary we could find ourselves back in the same mental state we were before the start of this season (85-ish win team with a decent shot at the playoffs in our division).
I have a question about the whole Cliff Lee situation.
The way I understand it, if we trade him they get him as a rental since he is a FA at the end of the year. If we hold him, we get some draft picks.
My question is, if we trade him, does the other team get said draft picks at the end of the season?
Which should be a bargaining chip should trade talks take place between the M's and another team.
Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
A Work in Progress
Lots of things to consider when taking this route.
The teams likely to sign Cliff Lee next season are going to have draft pick slots in the 25 to 30 range. If we do get one of those and a compensation pick, is that going to be as valuable as whatever we could get in trade? This is also assuming a team that isn’t losing a lot right now and will have their draft pick protected isn’t going to sign him (somehow).
Not to mention that whatever we draft wont be reasonably ready to help us for anywhere between 2 to 4 years. If we can get a Lee deal done for more major league ready players that can help in 2011, we should listen.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 11, 2010 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree.
I’d rather the M’s trade him for ML ready piece(s). I’m just saying that the fact that he’s going to bring some team two picks should he bolt for free agency should make him that much more valuable.
Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
A Work in Progress
That's factored in.
You also have to remember that, while valuable, two first round picks represent a ton of uncertainty.
I read something on MLBTradeRumors today that quoted someone as saying "Jack loves draft picks. He has no problem getting hem as compensation if the offers aren't good enough"
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I think he definitely has a certain degree of leverage
because if teams don’t offer him something legitimate, he can take the picks. That being said, if you look at the packages Sabathia and Holliday fetched, both are way better than draft picks, in my opinion.
(Yes, I realize comparing Holliday and Lee is like apples and oranges and I realize the market has shifted since the Sabathia trade, but those were the two recent premier rentals we have to go on).
by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 11, 2010 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I've said all along I prefer players to picks.
I trust if we don’t make a trade, Jack Z had good reason. I suspect he will make a trade though.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Z's a good drafter though
He basically built the Brewers to what they are today by draft picks, most of them his choice. I as well prefer players, but I definitely trust Jack if we just get draft picks
Well... let's not get too excited.
Yes, most of the Brewers were drafted and smart drafts, but just like everybody else who has an eye for talent and drafts people, most Brewers draft picks and prospects don’t pan out. Were they fortunate to be able to select top quality talents repeatedly (a la Rays), were they developed with good coaching and plans, or were they all great selections that were going to make it because Jack Z selected them?
Besides, McNamara is running the drafts now.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jun 12, 2010 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
They also had issues when selecting pitching.
Mark Rogers, et al.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 12, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Waiting for the draft picks almost seems like another form of the dread "rebuilding"
merely because it’s inevitably more of a long-term thing.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 12, 2010 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Another thing to consider is money.
The M’s have $70 mil on the books for next year, $20 mil less than this year. Arbitration includes Aardsma, Kotchman (both of whom I doubt the M’s will offer arb), RR-S (question mark if they offer), League, Lowe, Vargas, White and Langerhans. As Dave says in his analysis, this should be about $10 million more (I think it might be less after dropping off Aardsma and Kotchman).
Possible relief may come from Jack Wilson retiring a la Kenji last year ($5 million) and/or Jose Lopez being rendered moot by Dustin Ackley ($2.75 million) for a possible, total optimistic relief of $7.75 million, which could offset the arb increases.
So best case scenario ~$20 million, most likely ~$12 million, worst case $10 million. The latter 2 make going after Lee, or any big-name FA unlikely. The former makes it possible to maybe acquire Lee (a deal close to Halladay’s?) but leave the rest of the voids open, or get 2-3 “decent” FA’s to fill some holes (Konerko? Derrek Lee? Wigginton?) As Dave said in his post, it’s gonna take a lot of shrewd maneuvering to turn this team around, given the resources available
by ManifestDestiny on Jun 11, 2010 10:53 AM PDT reply actions
That's true. Our most urgent needs are a 1B and at least two SP.
If we can fill one out decently with a Cliff Lee trade (although the thought of getting two extra picks in next year’s stacked draft makes my mouth water), that leaves us with $5-10 mil each for the other two big holes, and then we still have the problems at catcher and question marks at SS and DH.
If Z can pull of another trade like the one for Cliff Lee this past offseason, we could contend, but if he doesn’t we’re in a pretty tough spot. It’s hard to trade lots of prospects away when a playoff berth isn’t imminent, and it’s hard to fill our holes with our cash limitations, as well.
Couldn't we trade Lee straight up for the 2 picks that he's going to bring the other team?
Which, would be stupid right. Why wouldn’t we just hold him til we get the picks ourselves. So couldn’t we possibly get something else in the deal, plus the 2 picks from whoever wants to rent him for the rest of the year?
You can't trade for picks in MLB.
Anyway, Lee is incredibly valuable because he is on a relatively cheap salary, is one of the top 5 pitchers alive, AND brings back 2 picks to whoever would trade for him. The value of that is a B+/A- prospect and some filler, likely.
If we don’t trade him, we get to watch CLIFF LEE for the rest of the year and get two great picks in a stacked draft.
Okay, then it really looks like either way, we get a good haul.
So if a sweet deal gets offered to us for him we bite, otherwise we get a couple nice picks in the draft. Looks like a win/win for us.
Fangraphs is doing a couple articles today on prospects for the 2011 draft for those interested.
Never too early to start thinking about who the M’s could get. Pick your favorites, just don’t count on Rendon.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Gerrit Cole
I saw him pitch when UCLA played UDub this year, he is a beast. No hit a solid hitting UW team for 7 innings I think
I'd take Cole over Purke for the risks involved.
On talent, Cole is definitely the number two prospect in the draft right now. Whether we pick there right now is another story, because if we end up tied with Pittsburgh (as we were recently), they’d own the tiebreaker. Since they were willing go with Taillon and Allie, I don’t think that they’d necessarily go cheap with the pick again, which leaves us with… Esposito? Someone…
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 12, 2010 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Pretty awesome comment on mlbtraderumors regarding a recent post about the Yankes and Mets going after Lee
“As a Mets fan, I don’t want Omar playing poker with Jack Z”
I’m glad they know.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I doubt Jack Wilson will actually retire.
I think he was just frustrated by the way his rehab was going and said something stupid to the media.
My eyes like watching Jack Wilson play defense.
Hitting on the other hand.. not so much.
I more prefer to hear Jack's defense described in great detail by Dave Neihaus or Dave Sims.
Looking at Jack Wilson, no matter what he’s doing, hurts my eyes.
Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
A Work in Progress
by JLProck on Jun 11, 2010 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
He played in the first game of the Rainiers DH on Thursday.
Hasn’t been up since.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 12, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Your numbers don't add up, unfortunately
Konerko last signed for 5/60 and lee for 5/65, I think. Both will probably get similar money now, if not more. That means either one would single-handedly break our bank without addressing any other needs.
The FO will be aiming much, much lower this offseason. With gaping holes at 1B, SS, C, DH, SP, SP, many question marks surrounding the bullpen and a basically an entire bench of sub-MLB-caliber players…we’re looking at a swiss-cheese team. There is no way in hell the FO could justify spending 50%+ of the budget on any free agent with that many glaring needs.
I see no way Konerko signs for more than two years and Lee signs for anywhere near that low
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 11, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions
I also don't see Konerko getting $12 million a year.
His skillset has far less market value than it did when he signed that contract.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 11, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
We disagree on this
We can’t tell what the market will be doing, but I heard talk before the season of how he was probably looking at a 1-2 year deal at 12-14 million after the season.
That might be inflated, but he hasn’t hurt his value this season, if anything he is increasing his value.
If nothing else I can’t see him getting less than 8/yr, which is still probably too much for the M’s.
I'd be cool with $8-$10/2 if he were left handed.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 11, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not saying I'D pay him that
But I bet SOMEone will. He’s exactly the kind of player that comes to Safeco to die, anyway.
Konerko will be 35 going into next season and will probably be an all-star this season for the first time since 2006. It actually surprised me to see he's only a 3-time all-star.
But I don’t think anyone expects him to be as good as he is this year again. If a younger Adam Dunn only got 10 million a year from the Nats… I just don’t know what Konerko can expect in this market. And Carlos Lee is having opposite day as far as “playing for a contract goes”
He’s looking like the next Andruw Jones.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you're a bit off with Aardsma and Kotchman.
They are due for raises. We have to pay them. It’s not like Cliff Lee, whom is a free agent and we offer arbitration too, knowing he would’t accept but we’d love it if he did. Aardsma has 3 years of service time, he will go to arbitration only if the two sides can’t come to an agreed upon raise. Casey Kotchman has 4 years of service time.
My understanding is that these players won’t hit free agency until 6 years of service time, or something like that. But I am almost positive Aardsma can not just walk. They will have to pay him more than 2.75 million.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions
I have a hard time seeing KJotchamn being offered a contract
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 11, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
This is correct actually, like he would be in Kelly Johnson situation with the Braves.
I forgot about that aspect.
But Aardsma isn’t going anywhere unless they trade him.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Trading him makes way too much sense.
His value will never be much higher, he’s due for a raise, and a rebuilding team doesn’t need to be spending that much on a closer. Give the spot to Lowe.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 11, 2010 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh, as much as I like Aardsma, I am FOR FOR FOR trading him.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Although Jesus, I had not seen that ERA recently
I think a draft pick is probably better than anything we’d get for him unless he brings that down soon.
by Fuckmikereilly on Jun 11, 2010 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Lowe needs a new back first.
Give it to Cordero or something.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
Not this year
Lowe’s out for the year, but I’m all for giving it to Lowe or Fields next year
I personally feel we are in a lot of trouble. We won't be good until our farm system starts
producing cheap 2+ WAR players.
I really don’t see us competing until 2012.
by Rudy4three on Jun 11, 2010 12:05 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
The entire time you have been posting here you haven't seen us being good for a minimum of three years
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 11, 2010 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
has he been wrong?
we are in the middle of a long, tough stretch for this ball club
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
"What'
“What? You said two minutes, five minutes ago”
Too bad.
I love Snatch.
Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
A Work in Progress
I shall not comment on this comment.
There may be children present.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
Eh, probably an inappropriate place for me to start kidding around
This is a nice thread, some nice serious baseball discussion.
Remorseful Rudy?
Dissenting opinions are welcome, and should be encouraged, at Lookout Landing. -LL Style Guide
I'm not diving in over on USSM, but here's my pick from the issues we have:
Rob Johnson isn’t a major league starting catcher. Backup? Sure. Felix’s special pet? Okay… But before we go out and spend money on a starting catcher, shouldn’t we play Adam Moore every day we possibly can (once he’s back from the DL) to see if we have something there? Rob’s a known quantity, but we’re still not sure what we have in Moore.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
I get what you are saying about Moore
but at the same time, he is 26 years old. He has looked awful behind the plate. At what point do we decide that ship has sailed?
by Ballard Erik on Jun 11, 2010 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Holy shit.
We decide that after we give him more than 83 plate appearances in the bigs. He has always hit in the minors and has been given essentially no opportunity to adjust to the bigs.
by abender20 on Jun 11, 2010 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'm all for giving Adam Moore opportunities but I also think he sucks a lot
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 11, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
That's not fair at all. He's not Rob Johnson, who never hit at all in the minors.
He looked a lot like Saunders toward the end of his healthy part of the season. He’s strike out and look bad a lot, but he also made some good contact, drove some balls into gaps, and showed some oppo power.
I don't find his numbers in the minors as impressive as you do I suppose
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 11, 2010 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Impressive, no, but he's been an above average hitter as a catcher with some pop.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to see him hitting like a less-powerful Mike Napoli.
At one time he was scouted as having 15 to 20 HR power.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
He's never impressed me, but I'm also not a scout and that's why I'd like to see him got lots of playing time
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 11, 2010 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I've been a fan since he was first in the system,
so I’m probably a bit biased. But I think he at least deserves the chance to prove he can or can’t be the guy going forward.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
I agree
but there is the matter where he’s looked amazingly bad at defense. It’s too early to sail the ship, but it’s not too early to start thinking of other potential options.
He does seem to have regressed on defense,
and that was never touted as his strong suit anyway. But as with his hitting, it is a fairly SSS.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
A bit.
Last year was his first major step forward though….
2006: 41 G, 3 E, 6 PB
2007: 101 G, 8 E, 21 PB
2008: 107 G, 8 E, 27 PB
2009: 113 G, 8 E, 14 PB
I’ve been leery of Moore’s defense because I thought he was just awful when I saw him in Everett years ago, but if you’re of the belief that ‘09 wasn’t an aberration for him, it’s enough make you take the chance on him hoping that it holds in the future.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 12, 2010 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
That has to be a concern, certainly. I suppose I've stopped looking at the catching position from the same perspective I look at every other position.
I’d settle for anyone better than Rob Johnson at this point. I am so jealous of San Fran and Cleveland for getting shiny new talented toys to play with at C.
At least this year, it's basically impossible to argue that Moore's better.
I’d love him to get better, but I’m worried about him, and think that his 2009/10 have to adjust what we can expect from him going forward. His power seemed to decline a bit, but at least he was a solid contact hitter, right? Now, not so much. Yes, yes, the MLB samples are miniscule, but contact rate stabilizes quickly and it’s awful. Regress it and it’s still awful. His defense was never going to be really good, so he’s really got to figure out how to make contact.
Thanks a lot, 2010 season.
Also Baltimore.
And the Yankees, eventually. And Oakland before them. And Mauer for a while now.
It’s really an era of incredible catching throughout. Moore looks awful by comparison, but his ceiling is that he could give you an average level of production as a hitter, while playing catcher, which isn’t bad. It’s just a question of how much the defense is going to take away from him.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jun 12, 2010 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd give him at least a year for I give up on him
It seemed the FO was really high on him like 6 months ago. I doubt they give up quickly.
Dissenting opinions are welcome, and should be encouraged, at Lookout Landing. -LL Style Guide
That's why I say give him the starting job when he comes back. Let's find out.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
He needs more time in AAA.
I know that sounds bad for a 26 year old, but Adam Moore has potential that would be wasted if he shared a job, and probably holes that would be exploited and lose confidence if he had a starting job.
Just another month or two in Tacoma.
Unfortunately even if he’s better than Rob Johnson, there’s no rush for the team to get better at this point if it could cost them more in the future.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions
He (unlike most recent players) wasn't rushed up through the system.
I think he’s done everything he can at AAA. Like you said, he shouldn’t share the job up here. That’s why I’m saying he should be the starter when he comes back. Let Rob catch Felix if that makes Felix happy, but give Adam the rest of the games.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
I think he spent enough time at AAA that he doesn't have anything left to learn there.
If you send him back he’d either just kill it down there and it would be too easy, or he’d go into a funk because of his “demotion” and you’ve done more harm than good.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
91 games at AAA isn't exactly record-breaking.
And he didn’t crush it there like he did the previous two years.
It wouldn’t hurt him to figure out AAA pitching before he figures out major league pitching.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions
For those keeping score we have the 2nd worst record in the majors.
Baltimore 17-40
Seattle 23-37
Pitt 23-37
Arizona 24-37
Cleveland 23-36
Houston 25-36
KCR 25-36
I still think it would be hard to finish in the bottom 3 with Baltimore, Pitt, and Houston in there.
Don't worry. We won't finish last.
We’ll sweep the A’s to end the season.
Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
A Work in Progress
Arizona won't stay this bad, Cleveland probably shouldn't either.
You’re looking at Baltimore, Pitt, Seattle, Houston, and KC as the realistic dregs.
It isn't surprising that Baltimore is bad.
It’s how bad they are that’s almost shocking.
by FairWeatherFred on Jun 11, 2010 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions
At this point in the season, though, it's still has to be somewhat fun for Baltimore.
They have a parade of minor league guys close to the bigs like Josh Bell and Jake Arrieta (who was called up to start yesterday) that should keep things at least somewhat interesting.
But we have Mike Carp coming up to reinforce the MLB squad!
Who said it wasn’t fun to be a Mariner’s fan?
Besides everyone, I mean.
I'd rather watch Carp (regardless of your opinion of him) than watch a veteran struggle.
In that situation I’ll take giving the young guy a shot every time.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
I'm 100% with you
I just don’t get as excited about Carp as O’s fans probably are about their up-and-comers.
Granted, Carp is no Heyward, or even an Adam Jones.
But I still like watching the young guys get their chance.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
I'm not expecting too much from Arrieta or Bell.
I’ve heard Arreita is more suited for the bullpen. Josh Bell seems like a league average 3rd baseman. However, I’m probably being overly picky at this point – they are more exciting than what we’ve called up thus far or the near future.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jun 11, 2010 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions
One of the most frustrating things about this season is what it will do to payroll.
The attendance is going to continue to plummet, with revenue and payroll in tow.
It's not like the owners couldn't supply us with a good payroll.
But you are probably right. Expect a lower payroll next year.
I don't have a solution but I admire the problem.
by the other side on Jun 11, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
As others have said before,
the M’s will not purposely operate at a loss, regardless of the payroll needs of the baseball team. So if attendance and income suffers because of a bad year, you can expect a lower payroll.
"Because 100 luftballoons would be far too many"
This is the key point in regard to the 2011 season.
Hopefully two of Ackley, Triunfel and Liddi will be stars ready to shine by 2011-12. I could see a future wherein only one 3-4 WAR free agent is signed between now and the start of 2012.
I don't know that Liddi is a star, but we'll see.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
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