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11-16

Let's get one thing cleared up right now.

There are a lot of critics. A lot of people saying "I told you so" about the Mariners and their disappointing 11-16 record. A lot of people saying the front office should've known what it was getting into when it put this roster together, and that we're losing because the plan wasn't good enough.

The plan was good enough. The plan was that we'd pitch, defend, and annoy our way into playoff contention, that we'd do just enough good things at the plate to outweigh the lack of power and give the guys on the mound all the support they'd need more often than not. Mathematically and intuitively, it made fine sense.

Here's the thing, though. The plan was that we'd hit for a good average, get on base, and run. The plan wasn't that we'd bat .230, post an OBP of .310, and get thrown out a lot. The plan involved production from second. It involved production from third. It involved production from left, and it involved a bit of production from DH.

The plan has gone awry. Not because the plan was faulty, but because the players aren't holding up their end of the bargain. You wanna pin Milton Bradley on the front office? Okay, maybe that's fair, because he was an obvious risk. You wanna pin Griffey and Sweeney on the front office? Okay, maybe that's fair, because those guys were pretty clearly limited in what they could offer at the plate. But Jose Lopez? Chone Figgins? Their combined OPS of like .560? You wanna pin that on the front office? Who could've possibly seen this coming? They were both productive hitters a year ago, but so far in 2010 they've been colossal disappointments, and though we're free to talk about the team's numerous other problems, the fact of the matter is that Lopez and Figgins are killing us. They're not doing it on their own, but they're doing it.

This team wasn't designed to score a ton of runs. It was designed to score enough runs. And it isn't going to score enough runs until Lopez and Figgins get it figured out. I know, we could ask for more out of pretty much anyone but Gutierrez, but at least we can theoretically cover for most of the other problems. If Lopez and Figgins can't get it going, we're screwed.

The starting pitching was good tonight, again. The starting lineup sputtered tonight, again. Sean White pitched like a complete asshole. The M's are almost miraculously still only three games out of the race, on account of this entire division is pathetic, but you can sense the pressure and the panic, and Bradley isn't the only guy who feels it. You think the pitchers trust the offense to provide support? You think the offense trusts itself to do anything? They say that, win or lose, these M's make it fun every day, but these M's haven't yet faced such a high level of stress. There's a limit to how fun you can make this.

They better shake it off soon. I think they can do it, but I thought they could do it weeks ago, so, who knows? I suppose, if nothing else, if the whole season ends up going down the toilet, at least we could finally put the chemistry discussion to bed. Chemistry sounds all well and good until you look up and see your $36m second baseman batting .202. All the good feelings in the world can't help you hit a fastball.

Comment 77 comments  |  4 recs  | 

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Your game notes:

-a double and two semi-deep fly outs for Griffey today. It’s progress.

-Jack Wilson will presumably miss a few days with a hamstring injury, which means we either go forward without a bench, or make a move tomorrow.

-Rob Johnson took a foul tip off the hand and may very well have a broken finger, although he kept playing after it happened. Instantly swelled and turned blue.

-Cliff Lee doesn’t throw balls. Only 30 out of 113 pitches tonight.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 6, 2010 1:04 AM PDT reply actions  

Like

Fucking “clownshoes” as a nickname?

Or fucking clownshoes literally. Because that’s a bit awkward.

by Tony S on May 6, 2010 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

By this I mean more hope that RJ.

Which isn’t hard.

Everything is Rob Johnson's fault.

by the other side on May 6, 2010 1:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

I do too

but Moore hardly inspires confidence in the immediate. Our catchers are terrible.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 6, 2010 1:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Free Josh Bard?

Covet Chris Ianetta? Words I never thought I’d say: wish we’d gott Greg Zaun.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on May 6, 2010 4:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

3 Games Back Is Nothing

It’s only May afterall….

MAY DAY MAY DAY!

Cinco De Mayo was yesterday.

Things changed after Byrnes left. This team isn’t the same.

by Tony S on May 6, 2010 1:06 AM PDT reply actions  

Wednesday's game was a better than Tuesday's.

I was at both. They both sucked. The games were better than the typical game in 2008.

by mark sobba on May 6, 2010 1:14 AM PDT reply actions  

This is the most dramatic five-game losing streak I've ever seen.

L1 – Cliff Lee is awesome…wait, why haven’t we scored? Byrnes, Sweeney….NOOOOOOOO!
L2 – Felix Day, yay…..how is the other team scoring? We can’t keep up! Felix tweaked his back…NOOOOOO!
L3 – Doug Fister was awesome. Just what we needed…oh-no, we lost the 1 run lead. They’re taking the lead….NOOOOO! CHANGE! Bye, Byrnes and Tui. Hello Langerhans and Josh Wilson. Sweeney is still here!? NOOOOOO!
L4 – Ugh, we’re still losing….Milton Bradley did what again!? Griffey looks hopeless! NOOOOOO!
L5 – Cliff Lee Day! WE HIT A HOME RUN! We have lost the lead…they have taken the lead. Sean White!? NOOOOOO!

by ThundaPC on May 6, 2010 1:16 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

If I hear another talking head say that the "hitters" are letting the "pitchers" down I'm going crazy

The “hitters” are also the only people doing anything above average – playing defense – on the team right now. Based on Matthew’s series previews, the M’s suck at hitting, starting pitching, and relief pitching.

While Lopez is having a career worst season at the plate so far, his defense at 3rd has made him the 3rd most valuable position player on the M’s so far this year (per Fangraphs WAR). Chone is 4th.

by CMC_Stags on May 6, 2010 1:25 AM PDT reply actions  

Well that's not entirely fair to our rotation

I remember someone saying that a bit part of it is RRS. Plus, we substituted Lee for Snell, so that changes a lot. Felix, Lee, Fister, and Vargas seem to be one of the few really bright spots so far this year. If RRS gets back on track, that’s amazing. And even if he doesn’t…Bedard!

I mean I love Figgins, but he really needs to start hitting like he used to. I like Lopez too, but I think at this point being the 3rd most valuable position player isn’t as impressive as it sounds. He seems to be doing well at third base, but he could (and should) be doing a hell of a lot better with the bat.

by Karma Police on May 6, 2010 1:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

We're still only 3 games out. Lopez and Chone will start to improve again soon. Lee and Felix will stay awesome.

We’re not out of this by a long shot. I’ve stayed away from everything Mariner related the past few days after the first sniff of Bradley problems, and I’m glad for it. The numbers are clear: three games can be made up in one series. We will improve, we just have to stay calm.

by EnglishMariner on May 6, 2010 1:30 AM PDT reply actions  

so...

will the AL west winner this year have a .500 record?

by RollingWave on May 6, 2010 2:44 AM PDT reply actions  

84 wins

and then claim the WS.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on May 6, 2010 4:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

The biggest offensive problems right now are the two guys who switched positions over the winter

Coincidence? It seems like the move worked really good for the D, but how much did the switch affect their concentration and preparation hitting wise?

by Schuxu on May 6, 2010 4:48 AM PDT reply actions  

The biggest offensive problems are catcher and DH

now, of course we expected much more from 2B/3B, and they need to meet those expectations for the team to be any good. But, if I were to replace any one player with a league average performer, I’d start with one of the catchers or George.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on May 6, 2010 6:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not really

a catcher who wOBAs .335 is hard to find, yes. But a catcher only has to hit ~.300 (wOBA) and be average behind the plate to be worth 2 wins.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on May 6, 2010 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe it is time to bring Bobby Knight in for a motivational pep talk

I’m not ashamed to say there are are two 70 year old men that scare me- Bobby Knight and Clint Eastwood.

by RustyJohn on May 6, 2010 7:46 AM PDT reply actions  

He's 70?

I thought he was like 60 something.

Everything is Rob Johnson's fault.

by the other side on May 6, 2010 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

CATCHER & DH

You can place the blame anywhere you want, but in a division where you put your best hitter in the DH role, we have the opposite going on.

Also, our catchers are horrible. Does Wak have a hard-on for Rob Johnson? I don’t get it. Who CARES if the pitchers enjoy pitching to the guy.

by Charles Gipson is a Mangod on May 6, 2010 8:16 AM PDT reply actions  

I can excuse the catcher situation in my mind

It’s not like we have better options if Moore sucks. I don’t think he does, he just needs an adjustment period to the majors like most players do. Catcher is the most scarce position in baseball, few teams get to enjoy great offensive production there.

The DH situation is totally inexcusable, though.

by OlSalty on May 6, 2010 8:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure what you mean about the ALW having the best hitter at DH

but generally speaking the DH is not the best hitter on the team, if only because it is harder to hit without playing the field. The DH has usually been the best hitter who cannot play a position, but more and more teams are using it as a spot to allow fielders to rest while keeping them in the lineup.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on May 6, 2010 8:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Positional scarcity dictates that the DH should be your best hitter

Because there is less required of him to find a place on a team. There are more players out there who can hit but not field at all than players who can field and also hit. If teams fail to deliver on that simple principle, it’s on them.

by OlSalty on May 6, 2010 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

In the Division

Only one team has a DH that’s one of their best hitters. Only one team has a DH hitting over .330 wOBA.

by ThundaPC on May 6, 2010 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, our catchers and DH are terrible

However, nobody really expected anything out of catcher, and if we were so inclined, we could cover up the DH problem by moving Bradley and inserting Langerhans.

We don’t need Johnson or Griffey or Sweeney to hit. We need Lopez and Figgins to hit.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 6, 2010 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think its important to remember that we basically have two rookies at catcher this year

They are playing because the club thinks they will be a valuable asset to the club in the future. If they didn’t think that then the FO would have acquired a catcher in the offseason. We expected the catcher position to generate around 1 WAR probably and I think if you had to project it now you’d say we will probably get around 0 to 0.5 WAR. The team wants to get these guys PA this year and is willing to sacrifice a little production to improve these guys’ abilities.

by Edgar for Pres on May 6, 2010 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe some division context would be good?

One idea for a post that would be useful for me at least would be if you guys could update us on why the rest of the division is underperforming as well. What happened to all those preseason calls for our division to be so strong and competitive? The Angels and A’s problems we knew more about at the start of the season but what’s up with Texas?

by olystuart on May 6, 2010 8:21 AM PDT reply actions  

No one claimed the division would be strong only competitive.

The division is not really underperforming, it is performing exactly as predicted – a bunch of flawed teams good enough to play about .500 over a season and maybe a tad better if things go well. You got an update on Texas just before the last series by Matthew, and if you want to know more Lonestarball is a good blog and linked on the sidebar.

In brief, their hitters are not doing as well as they might be but they are getting better pitching than expected from CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis. The hitters will come around, but I expect that Wilson, Lewis, and Feldman will start getting hit harder as well so equilibrium will be maintained.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on May 6, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

Here is what I don't get...

We excel at defense. We generally excel at pitching (most days). At what point do we say it is ok to start sacrificing defense to improve our offense? If we are going to continually hit this badly (I’m still hoping for a turn around though), where do we draw the line saying that having a great scheme player is worth 0 production? You’ll have to forgive me because I’m a much more knowledgeable person about football when it comes to roster management, and so I really am stumped on this issue. In Football, defense wins championships 9 times out of 10, but in football you can score points off the defense. As we can’t get runs added for great fielding by Ichiro, does defense actually continue to win games when there is no offense? I love this team and I just want to see them succeed, but I’m just afraid if we continue to cling to a “defense first” mentality we may never be able to compete with strong teams consistently. I don’t want us to score 10 runs every game, but is it really too much to ask we score at least an average of 4?

"I shall not fear. Fear is the Mind killer. Fear is the little death that leads to total obliteration. I will face my fear and let it pass through me. When the fear is gone, there shall be nothing. Only I shall remain."

-Frank Herbert "Dune" (1965)

by Jamkel on May 6, 2010 9:31 AM PDT reply actions  

Finding upgrades for the offense may not be so easy.

I honestly believe they are looking as it is in their best interest to do so before the fan base quits on this season.

by Sec 108 on May 6, 2010 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

"At what point do we say it is ok to start sacrificing defense to improve our offense?"

The day when we can reasonably add more runs/wins on offense than defense.

My take is a bat isn’t impossible to find at the trading deadline, especially if it’s a LF/DH bat.

by eponymous_coward on May 6, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree, we may actually be much worse than Royally fucked.

As I do recall, we only barely avoided getting fucked by the Royals just a couple of weeks ago. The way we are playing I’d say we’d be ass up to them in an instant atm.

"I shall not fear. Fear is the Mind killer. Fear is the little death that leads to total obliteration. I will face my fear and let it pass through me. When the fear is gone, there shall be nothing. Only I shall remain."

-Frank Herbert "Dune" (1965)

by Jamkel on May 6, 2010 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Team average and OBP should rise, but the plan seems not have been particularly promising in the first place.

Figgins BA is low, but his OBP isn’t too far off from his average. Last year was a career year for him. There’s no reason to believe he can repeat it. Same with Lopez.

Fister is way overperforming. Cliff Lee will likely regress a little more too. Felix could or should finish with better numbers, however.

Milton Bradley was a questionable if not bad signing.

by Moshka on May 6, 2010 11:09 AM PDT reply actions  

The plan was sound, as we demonstrated on countless occasions

The team has underperformed. Some players have overperformed, but overall, we’re below.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 6, 2010 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

But:

DH and bench plan = not sound

by lemonverbena on May 6, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

If my suspicions are correct, I think the original plan was sound.

I think Wakamatsu fucked it up. His being allowed to do so is a whole different conversation.

by Aaron Campeau on May 6, 2010 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions   2 recs

In an overall sense, the Pitch and Play Defense and Be Annoying Plan was sound

But the actual roster construction and lineups are helping to fuck that plan up. If Figgins and Lopez were hitting then those problems would only be better hidden.

by lemonverbena on May 6, 2010 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that's terrible

But, on its own, it wasn’t enough to make us capsize.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 6, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

A few things:

1) Please use the subject line for all comments. It’s a site rule.

2) Figgins career OBPis .362 and his 2010 OBP is .339. That’s not particularly close. His wOBA is .295 vs. a career mark of .337.

3) I don’t think anyone doubts that Fister is overperforming, but his regression shouldn’t come anywhere close to offsetting the expected offensive regression.

4) It’s tough for Cliff Lee to regress seeing as how he’s only had two starts.

5) He wasn’t signed, he was traded for Carlos Silva. There’s no way that’s anything but good.

by Aaron Campeau on May 6, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

On Figgins and other

Figgins’ OBP right now is a mere 5% off his career OBP. I don’t think Figgins is a bad pick-up, but for a team with almost no power, and an Ichiro leading off, he is not necessarily going to be a significant addition. Just two years ago he had an OPS under 700; the year before that it was over 800. One should expect him to perform in that range.

Certainly Fister is not shouldering the team, but his ERA should triple by the end of the year and that will change things a bit.

I’m just observing what seems to be a great deal of optimism bias here.

Pardon my subject line fault…did not know.

by Moshka on May 6, 2010 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

You have not seen optimism.

Go read the Cliff Lee threads.

Everything is Rob Johnson's fault.

by the other side on May 6, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fister's career xFIP is 4.30, and his career FIP in the minors is pretty good (warning: SSS)

He may actually be a Jamie Moyer, “how the FUCK does he get people out with that shit?!?!?!” type. I wouldn’t be spending a lot of money or trading prospects trying to find that out definitively, but as a 5th starter, I’m more than happy letting him fight for a job.

by eponymous_coward on May 6, 2010 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Kila Ka'aihue/Jose Guillen

With the Royals calling up Kila Ka’aihue and no full time place to play him, should Z make a play for everyone’s favorite ex -M Jose Guillen? If so what should they try to give up for him? He had good numbers both home and away in ’07, and has been killing the ball so far this year.

by DJPinPDX on May 6, 2010 1:25 PM PDT reply actions  

Ive already dispatched Ninjas to Sean White's shitty condo

no one ruins 7 minutes of my free time and gets away with it

Peace, Love and West Coast Hip Hop, Go Mariners!

by E2ESQUARE on May 6, 2010 1:28 PM PDT reply actions  

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