A Hopeful Note on the Mariners Courtesy of BaseRuns

by Matthew on May 5, 2010 1:00 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

The team is 11-15, losers of four straight and in last place of the AL West. They also look terrible at the plate, our DH combo is unchanged and awful and Milton Bradley might be headed for some time off. The Mariners right now are more frustrating than that guy at work who keeps taking phone calls on speaker (get a hands-free mic, Steve! Here, I'll even buy one for you!) so how about a quick diversion?

Both Graham and I have covered BaseRuns before (links here and here) and I like using it as my sanity check on how well a team is performing on a wins-per-162 basis. It's a lot better than taking actual runs scored and allowed on faith since teams, especially over just one month, can get quite lucky on hitting with runners in scoring position and other areas that dramatically affect run totals.

I used a simple BaseRuns model to get some expected runs scored and allowed figures for our division to date (listed in the below table). I then plugged those run figures into pythag and projected the resulting winning percentage over 162 games to generate the following standings chart of how BaseRuns would expect 2010 to finish if teams continued playing at their current level of performance.

Team	W	L	RS	RA
Projected AL West Standings
Oakland	78	84	107	112
Seattle	78	84	86	93
Texas	77	85	97	114
Anaheim	67	95	107	143
source: BaseRuns

The entire AL West has been locked in a duel to out-mediocre each other so far and so the Mariners still look like a team that's right in the hunt to end up on top. Of the division that is. They also look like a team that's right in the hunt to end up on top of the "Who can be most mediocre?" contest, but that's bad, not hopeful.

Yes, they've blown a chance to build a meaningful early season lead, but so has Texas and Oakland. The Mariners have problems and they're fixable. For now, they've played some awful baseball at times but find themselves just 2.5 games back and both BaseRuns and regressed wOBA are saying the team's been unlucky.

Also, remember the Mariners were once 2-6 and then ended up 9-7. This team is going to be susceptible to streaks given how tight their games are likely to be. They play in a division clearly lacking a good team. It may seem like it with their recent spate of play, but this season isn't over yet. Not by a long shot.

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Please please please let the Angels lose 95 games.

ROB JOHNSON IS THE WORST PERSON EVER

by I Lick Squirrels on May 5, 2010 1:10 PM PDT reply actions

I have hope still but its more contained then it was in the beginning of the season

Most of my hope lies in the fact that every year a team gets hot and is the “best team in baseball” by August or September even though they looked bad in April and May.

2009: Rockies were 18-28 under Clint Hurdle and 74-42 under Jim Tracy and were 12 games under on June 3rd. The Twins were 6 games under .500 on August 17th and finished 11 games over.
2008: Dodgers were 7 games under .500 on June 15th and won a very even division (like this AL West) with 84 wins.
2007: Cubs 9 games under .500 on June 2nd and won the Central. Phillies were 7 games under on April 20th and won the East. Rockies were 9 games under .500 on May 21st and we know what they did.

None of that has any correlation to the 2010 Mariners however it gives me hope because they A.) play in a division where 85 wins might take it. B.) We all feel they are probably better than how they are playing now. C.) SOMEBODY that sucks right now is going to make the playoffs, it might as well be the Mariners.

by Kenny Knows Sports on May 5, 2010 1:34 PM PDT reply actions

Yes ladies and gentlemen this is your AL Worst.

by Sec 108 on May 5, 2010 1:45 PM PDT reply actions

While its nice that we are still very in this thing because everyone else is bad too,

Its still frustrating that we are currently blowing a great opportunity to win in a weak year, and losing in very annoying ways as well.

Hopefully the Mariners can start annoying their opponents in coming weeks rather than their fans.

by ARock on May 5, 2010 2:07 PM PDT reply actions

I find it funny that if you go to the other 3 message boards in the AL West

they’re all saying the same thing.

by Kenny Knows Sports on May 5, 2010 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, we need more doilies

by Milendriel on May 5, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions

So, to sum up:

The hitting is going to improve, but is still pretty terrible, and the pitching and defense is the best in the division?

by eponymous_coward on May 5, 2010 2:13 PM PDT reply actions

I do hope all your projections are correct.

Personally I’m not sure the M’s will do that well.

Best pitching in Baseball. Worst run scoring capabilities. What a combo.

This is like the old Dodgers featuring Maury Wills and no one else.

Remember this?

“When Drysdale heard on the radio that Koufax had fired a no-hitter, his immediate response was, “Did he win it?”

I got a feeling we will experience a little of this in the coming weeks.

mjc

by quidveritas on May 5, 2010 2:25 PM PDT reply actions

The 60's Dodgers were actually a decent hitting team.

They just had the misfortune to a) play in an era when offense was very depressed and b) in a stadium that totally screwed them.

Frank Howard, Tommy Davis, Willie Davis, Maury Wills were all pretty good hitters and started actually hitting worth a damn… once the rules were changed a bit and they weren’t playing half their games in Dodger Stadium.

by eponymous_coward on May 5, 2010 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Well too add some more confidence...

ESPN the Mag just released and anonymous player poll asking them a variety of questions and one of them was ‘Who Do You Think Will Win The World Series?’ and 9% polled said the Mariners, good enough for 3rd place. It’s on there website, sorry if you’re not an insider, though.

by NoStars on May 5, 2010 2:51 PM PDT reply actions

Whose mediocrity is most fixable?

It seems like the Rangers and A’s have both had some injury problems.
I’m willing to jump on-board the “Angels are terrible” ship, but aren’t the other teams in the division just as like to stop being bleh with a few breaks?