I have to say it: this is harder to watch than 2008
by Milendriel on May 5, 2010 3:06 AM PDT
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PrintI made this comment at USSM, but in retrospect it might have been too lengthy, so... Fanpost! I want to vent, and maybe other people need a 37th place to do so too.
I have to say it: this is harder to watch than 2008.
Sure, the 2008 team was utterly putrid, but we knew it'd be bad. We knew Bavasi was hopelessly incompetent. There was also a little bit of train-wreck appeal to watching the team suck (Miguel Cairo at first base was hilarious), and the hope of a GM change was (for some) incentive to root for failure.
Jack Z has shown he gets it. Between the trades for Franklin Gutierrez and Cliff Lee, the Russell Branyan signing, the Gutierrez and King Felix extensions, and trading Carlos Silva for an actual Major League player, he's proven he has an eye for talent and knows how to address the team's needs.
That's what's so infuriating about watching this team, and Griffey and Sweeney in particular: Jack Z flat-out knows better. I agree with Dave Cameron that it's better for a team to be patient with its bad players than impatient with its good ones, but this is absurd.
The only explanation I can come up with is that the team is relying too heavily on statistical analysis in this case (and I love stats as much as anyone). Sample size and regression to the mean are of course extremely important when projecting future performance, but I think we tend to gloss over the assumptions inherent in making such projections. For example, BABIP theory for pitchers assumes they're throwing Major League quality pitches. We assume a certain age-related decay in hitters' offensive performance. This is where I think scouting has an advantage: it's not that scouts necessarily see things that stats can't, but that they aren't burdened by these assumptions which hold in the aggregate but not always the individual cases.
Sample size still matters for scouting, of course, but I guarantee if you sent tape of Griffey's at-bats this season to a bunch of scouts, all the scouting reports you got back would contain the word "finished." ZIPS, meanwhile, merely bumps its wOBA projection down from the .313 preseason number to .305. I'm still taking the under. It's not even controversial to say he probably won't hit a single HR this year, so I'll go a step further and say he gets zero XBH the rest of the season.
I just don't get why Jack Z, with his scouting background, would be so patient with Griffey and Sweeney when it's obvious to even non-scouts that they're utterly done. I know Griffey's not going anywhere--although I would contend that a fan riot from releasing him isn't much worse than fans simply not showing up to the park if the team is 15 games under .500 in July--but this is pathetic in a way the 2008 season wasn't. Jack Z is too awesome of a GM to allow this team to punt games for nostalgia's sake.
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A major positive on which I've been choosing to focus is the fact that, no matter how bad the M's are this year, they are almost guaranteed to be quite good next year.
And if not that year, for sure the year after. Right now, they are basically one hitter (and their current hitters breaking out of slumps) away from serious contention. Even with Griffey on the team, subtract Sweeney and replace him with either a competent DH (even a slightly above league average hitter) or an every day LF, and you’re talking a team that very likely would jump to first place in the division and would have a legit shot at holding it all year.
It’s weird to think that basically only one player stands between the Mariners and contention, as incompetent as they are right now. But such is life in the AL West.
That is a highly optimistic stance
… considering:
. Ichiro is not getting any younger
. We don’t get offense out of the 1b position
. Our 3b is actually a 2b
. Our catching situation is not resolved
. We have no legitimate hope in AAA for a “breakout” player to arrive on the scene (much less two or three) – and few assets with which to trade for legit offense
. Likelihood of us having to replace our #2 & #3 starters is relatively high
…not to mention your aforementioned LF/DH problem.
This looks like a team that could be below average for some time.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
Uh....
1. He hasn’t really shown it to be a problem yet and speedy guys age well. Plus he keeps himself in amazing shape
2. We don’t really know what Kotchman can give us completely yet.
3. He’s actually really good at 3B from what we’ve seen so far so I’m not sure why that’s an argument.
4. Who’s to say it won’t be resolved? Adam Moore still has the chance to be a good ML catcher and if the PB remain a problem for Johnson, maybe Z will get fed up.
5. Saunders? Ackley?
6. This is true but we don’t know how they will be replaced at all.
7. The DH problem is very easily fixable.
Saunders and Ackley have started out slow.
It’s worth mentioning though that Saunders is now hitting .467/.579/.533 in May. But he didn’t have an extra-base hit all of April, which is horrifying.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on May 5, 2010 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think the problem is with Lopez's defense at 3B.
But that he hits like a catcher. All the hub-bub around the DH has really overshadowed the fact that Lopez has an OPS of .540.
by Kenny Knows Sports on May 5, 2010 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Lopez is hitting much worse than most catchers
At first glance through the stats, I count 21 “starting” catchers (I know starting is subjective w/ catchers) who have OPS equal to or higher than Lopez’s.
His OPS currently is the same as massively slumping AJ Pierzynski’s.
He is being outOPSed by such sluggers as ex-Mariner Yorvit Torrealba, Jason Kendall, John Buck…and our very own Rob Johnson.
if he meant that Lopez's bat is the problem then okay.
But he’s not going to OPS .540 forever unless he’s suffering an Angel Berroa type breakdown.
He's worried about Lopez, and so am I. I wouldn't count him as a positive going forward other than positively won't be playing here past 2011.
by Kenny Knows Sports on May 5, 2010 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
We should be worried about Lopez's bat
Simply because historically (and I wish I could find the article I read on this, but I can’t right now) the M’s have been trying to get Lopez to take the ball the other way more often.
This year, he is (check out another recent fan post highlighting this)…problem is he doesn’t have enough power to do anything when he takes the ball the other way. Except fly out to right, which he has been doing.
EVERY one of Lopez’s HRs last year were pulled. If he is legitimately not pulling the ball anymore (SSS, I know) then he will have problems all year/career until he starts pulling the ball again, or beefcakes up.
I read either the same article or a similar one about another player.
What he was doing last year, it wasnt spectactular, but its what we need from him right now. Changing defensively is enough.
by Kenny Knows Sports on May 5, 2010 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Him not being able to hit the other way isn't a new problem.
I believe that was the root of his suck in 2007. If he is trying to do that again, then yes, there is more reason to worry. I just don’t think he’s a lost cause or anything right now.
I'm a fan like you...
… and I’m not really of a fatalistic mindset. However, it is hard to see why this team really ought to be “guaranteed to be better” next year. With Gutierrez and Felix, we have pieces, but this is a team meant to compete this year, not being built up for sustained competitiveness over the next three years.
Damn, my eyeball tastes good.
I'm not saying they will be good but there's reason to be optimistic.
Having competent management does wonders for confidence.
I share your frustration, but one very important thing to keep in mind:
The games the team seems to somehow manage to always lose early in 2010 are the games they somehow managed to always win early in 2009. Like I said, it’s incredibly frustrating and I want action to be taken to rectify the situation, but so much of this is shitty luck.
And while this might be harder for you to watch that 2008, nothing could possible be worse than 2008 in my eyes; we’re a month into the season and were basically tied with the Angels at 2.5 games back. There’s still plenty of time for this season to be awesome. When we’re actively rooting for the M’s to lose,I’ll listen to comparisons to 2008. Until then, try to have some perspective.
To echo your thoughts
I can’t help but about our tremendous luck last year in one-run games. It really does seem like we are losing this year in the exact same fashion that we were winning last year. Things have a way of evening themselves out … I suppose. Maybe the pitching will provide the offensive boost we need when we hit inter-league play.
I feel like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. Ugh
This is nothing compared to 2008
2008 was worse than cancer.
Certain types of cancer
I mean skin cancer is very treatable.
And testicular cancer actually has a pretty high survival rate. And I mean you don’t really need both nuts, right?
Pancreatic cancer is worse than 2008, though.
But then again, 2008 had Jose Vidro and the bad version of Richie Sexson and Miguel Cairo and Miguel Batista and…
ok AIDS is slightly worse than 2008.
You would rather someone take a scalpel to your nuts than relive 2008?
I know we’re all hardcore baseball fans, but given a choice of testicular surgery and bad baseball, I might take bad baseball.
Plus, we got Ackley out of the deal. Bad baseball PLUS Ackley > knifing my scrotum.
2008 was 2004 minus all the fun stuff
No Ichiro hitting .400+ in the second half, no Ibanez going 6-for-6 one game and generally going apeshit down the stretch, no glowing reports of Felix ascending the minor league ladder, no Bucky Jacobsen, no Bobby Madritsch… The only good thing about 2008 was Bavasi getting his ass canned. Let’s just hope Ackley turns out better than Clement.
I don't think Jack's (well Tony Blengino's) love of statistics is related in any way related to Griffey being in the line up.
Any well minded SABR believer knows that Griffey shouldn’t be there, as well as knows the caveats to looking at pitcher BABIP. Statistics have nothing to do with 5 of our best hitters slumping at the same time. Blaming statistics for our losing stretch is like blaming the Wright Brothers for airplane crashes. It might look like Jack and Tony’s methods aren’t working right now, but give it time and realize how far they’ve come thus far with limited funds, a terrible roster handed to them, in a very small amount of time, and you’ll realize we’re just fine.
Yes, this season is frustrating, but barring bad luck and good hitters slumping all year, we will be fine. The best news is that we’re not far out, because the rest of the AL West is getting beat up as well, and one or two breaks (couple warning track flies that go for homers, a couple ground balls/line drives that find holes, and less bases loaded no-out screw ups) and we could be right on top of the division.
I went the opposite direction, feels like the coaches need to get a good dose of stats to me.
The Griffey/Sweeney situation is in it’s own little bubble, but the bullpen. Criminy, the bullpen decisions. I’m shaking my head in bewilderment right now. Don’t get me started on the LF platoon issues.
That arm angle/splitter deal was irritating news.
Guess that means Kelley might get called up. I’m blanking on the rules, he has to stay down for 10 days before he can be recalled? Or is that waived for injury replacement?
In some ways I agree.
the 2008 season was fascinating in how bad it was and for most of the season i couldn’t take my eyes off of the train wreck. If this season continues along the path it is going now then I will pay less and less attention as the year goes on because this team is boring so far.
Agreed
2008 waas like the wacky sitcom with a laugh track that you know you shouldn’t watch but you still watched anyway. 2010 so far is like watching gardening shows or Antiques Roadshow.
by pdb on May 5, 2010 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
There is a reason fans aren't showing up to games
Losing games horribly when you are comically overmatched can be fun, especially when the team at least scores a few runs.
But scoring 4 runs in 32 innings and sitting through 11 innings of 0 – 0 ties while your boys go 0 for 8 with RISP just gets…aggravating. Casual baseball fans probably get even less enjoyment out of it than most of the rest of us.
But Soccer is fun
I feel like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. Ugh
Soccer is different.
It has its little ebbs and flows that create a kind of excitement, or onoing tension. Baseball needs the kinetic ball hitting the bat and guys running around.
ignacio
Could not disagree more
If your a baseball fan, you notice ebbs and flows of the game just as much as a soccer fans notice ebbs and flows. There’s usual just as much tension in a 0-0 baseball game as there is in a 0-0 soccer game, and if you’re not a soccer fan, there’s probably more.
Watching the 4/30 game live, there was little tension
More a sense of impending doom that increased exponentially with each runner left in scoring position, and each futile GIDP or pop up.
It is fun to see 0 – 0 for a while, but part of the enjoyment comes from an expectation that your team MIGHT POSSIBLY be able to score 1 run and win the game. If that aspect is missing, it’s boring as hell, and aggravating too.
Yeah I do agree here...
I suppose I was talking more about baseball in general rather than the M’s games. His reaction seemed to imply he was talking about baseball as a whole.
Watching lone hitters pass your entire team in home run total is not fun though.
by Kenny Knows Sports on May 5, 2010 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's be honest
There are only 2 guys with as many or more HRs as our entire Mariners team.
There are, however, 5 guys knocking on the door—only 1 behind our team total.
If its Cinco de Mayo then the words "only 2 guys" and "more HR's as our entire team" shouldn't be in the same sentence.
Any guys with more HR than your entire team is a problem.
by Kenny Knows Sports on May 5, 2010 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I should have increased my sarcasm quotient
I was being sarcastic since I totally agree with you.
A bunch of people are taking the Griffey challenge…but at this point, we should just switch it to a Mariners challenge, because it might be a while before we see another dinger.
Sarcasm noted.
Griffey did turn on one pitch the other day and that was like “waaaaah?” and I was like “wow” and it was like “damn!” but it was 200 feet foul.
by Kenny Knows Sports on May 5, 2010 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions
He destroyed a baseball last night too
Unfortunately, his version of a “destroyed” baseball now gets caught 5 feet in front of the warning track.
Looked like he got all of that one too, so I’m honestly not sure he’ll get a dinger all year.
That's the saddest thing to me about Griffey circa 2010
He still has that beautiful swing, but when he gets all of the ball it’s a shallow fly ball.
by pdb on May 6, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
The crowd roared like it was 1997 when he connected
And actually, the roar didn’t dissipate much after it was caught by the track.
He even got a standing ovation for the flyout, as if the crowd knew that was as close to a HR as he’d get all year, and they had to make the best of it.
I agree with you
This season has been painful to watch so far. There have been glimpses of fun, but until the offense actually starts putting up somewhat respectable numbers the games are going to be brutal.
It's painful to watch because our problems are fixable.
Whereas the 2008 team merely sucked.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on May 5, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
At least it's not completely futile baseball
We might look like shit but at least we look like shit only 2.5 games back in early May. There’s still plenty of time to right the ship.
I don't know if that's quite it
2008 was tolerable because in a big way to was a validation of what many of us thought about the team. Vidro, defense, Silva, Batista and Washburn, and so on and so forth. It was blogospheric schadenfreude, and while we all wanted the team to win badly, I think we knew kn our hearts that what was happening was just and proper.
This year is painful, so far, because of an egregious team-wide slump (save Ichiro and Gutierrez) undermining what was already going to be a major flaw. And also, I think, because if the hitters only played up to their projections for April, we’d likely be leading the division by several games at this point, waiting to see what Bedard’s got for us.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 5, 2010 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I think that was more or less what I was trying to get at
Zduriencik has made a lot of amazing moves to turn the team around from that 2008 nightmare, many of them seemingly out of nowhere. It’s just puzzling that he’s not making the obvious moves to fix the DH combo. There’s definitely hope for the team; we’re still in the thick of the race, and this roster is vastly more talented than 2008’s. I think the team is clinging to this “Belief System” mantra a little too much. Patience is warranted for a lot of our players, but even if Griffey and Sweeney bounce back, what’s the upside? A .300 wOBA from your DH’s? Yuck.
2008 has made me stronger and for that I am thankful
It isn’t my favorite baseball year ever though
So, if I understand this post correctly
This team is harder to watch than 2008 because there are two players that shouldn’t be on the team?
Well, that’s great, but using this logic, 2006 was harder to watch than 2008 because we were hauling around Carl Everett.
2008 was hard to watch because despite punting Bavasi and McLaren, we still had to finish the season and it was only June. We had no idea what our future was going to be and had to wait until the end of October just to see who would steer the ship. That was painful. That was hard to watch.
Yes, I get that 2010 has been annoying so far. We got swept in the Chicago as the team watched homer after homer from the opposing team decide the game. And we had no bench to counter with. We got swept by Texas despite completely shutting them down for almost the whole series. We had no offense and again no bench to work with.
But really, we’re barely a month in, our organization knows things have to turn around, and they have to try to do it while playing a quality team in the Rays. Yea, it’s also annoying waiting for the org to pull the plug on the Sweeney/Griffey DH platoon but I’m certain they will eventually pull the plug on it. They know this can’t continue for much longer. And even with that, we still need the rest of the team to start hitting and some breaks to go our way.
I wonder where holding on to Lee for the compensation picks fits under the tree burning scheme.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on May 5, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
I grow more and more pessimistic about the compensation picks.
Its kind of disheartening to know that it doesn’t matter who the type A player is but where he goes and Jose Valverde is worth a greater haul then any other free agent in compensation picks. It would be nice if we knew we were getting two picks in the top 40. If we make the playoffs, its a different story.
by Kenny Knows Sports on May 5, 2010 1:12 PM PDT up reply actions
Elias is fucked but Lee should rank ahead of most FAs.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on May 5, 2010 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions
In an ode to 2008
Adam Jones is out with hip pain.
Would you say it's time to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on May 5, 2010 10:49 AM PDT via mobile reply actions 7 recs
Only if it will make us stronger.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on May 5, 2010 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions
The pitching wasn't as good in 2008
and this year game after game of excellent pitching is being wasted. Plus this total lack of hitting or scoring thing is not entertaining. I’d rather watch a goofy team that would lose 6-11 or 8-10.
Griffey taking the 5th spot in the lineup by this point seems sheerly like an ego trip. Vidro in 2008 was fat and bad but he had a comedy element that was very high. Sexson losing all ability to it fairly suddenly was also somewhat comic — and you never knew, there was still some element of hope when he swung the bat.
This season has just been grim. It’s painful. Byrnes was comic but he wasn’t funny.
ignacio
And even Byrnes is gone now
He was hitting .094, but he WAS fun to watch. Who will we make funny .gifs of now?
I don’t exactly foresee Guti throwing a lawn dart anytime soon.
Rob Johnson!
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on May 5, 2010 12:24 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
DERP DERP DERP
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on May 5, 2010 12:25 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh, good call
I heard RJ talking on the pre-game show yesterday, and the interviewer asked him about the passed balls earlier in the week.
It was great fun to listen to him stammer a few excuses about what happened, when really what he wanted to say was “Christ, if I knew why I couldn’t catch baseballs I would have fixed the problem years ago, leave me the fuck alone.”
Wish we could make a .gif of that. But it’s, y’know, not a visible thing.
What should he say?
It’s like asking Aardsma about a walk he issued. It’s just part of the package.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on May 5, 2010 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the most frustrating thing for me
is that people assume that if a team can’t hit home runs then they’ll just play fundamental baseball. Except that our fundamental baseball has sucked this year and we’re losing games in incredibly painful fashion. Walk-offs, passed balls, wild pitches, screwed up squeeze plays and bad base running. I could live with the lack of power if we could just do the little things right.
by Kenny Knows Sports on May 5, 2010 1:14 PM PDT reply actions
2008 was painful for the entire season.
We are one month in and I can’t agree that it’s worse yet. I’m holding out until August.
I find this year to be more painful because I don't like people thinking they are right for the wrong reasons.
If they suck this year they’ll go off on things like how they were right about Milton Bradley, the defense/pitching strategy, the buy low candidates, Cliff Lee, and so on, and they won’t be. They’ll look at the results, not the process that lead there. I hate being called wrong when I’m not wrong, and if this continues (remember, it’s only 26 games, so I haven’t actually resigned myself yet), that would make this season obscenely painful.
...and now I'm here
Right now watching our rotation is fun
And it will stay that way until both Fister and Vargas prove they aren’t for real, which -wouldn’t be cool if that didn’t completely happen? If Bedard comes back healthy, and with the defense shortening the games drastically compared to 2008, even if our offense never comes around this could be one of the more interesting/entertaining 78 win teams in memory (haha, who remembers 78 win teams).
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