Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners

by Matthew on May 4, 2010 1:30 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

Seattle: 11-14
Tampa Bay: 18-7

	MARINERS	Δ Ms	RAYS	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-24.8 (29th)	-8.0	15.6 (7th)	Tampa Bay
FIELDING (?)	18.4 (1st)	3.0	14.8 (2nd)	Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)	-6.1 (22nd)	2.8	5.6 (11th)	Tampa Bay
BULLPEN (tRA)	-5.6 (28th)	0.4	-2.9 (22nd)	Tampa Bay
OVERALL(RAA)	-18.1	-1.8	33.1	TAMPA BAY

Reeling a little bit we get to welcome the Rays into Seattle in a classic mismatch.

In wacky movie land this is where the team would rally behind their positive outlook and come out kicking butt in the first game. Then the Rays would regroup behind a menacing montage and would even the series in game two. The odds would look long for the scrappy Mariners and the audience would be further prepared for defeat by being given a sneak look into the Rays behind the scenes devising an unethical plot to make sure they won the final and deciding game. Alas, things would go awry and at the last second the foil, moved by the pluck of Seattle, would change sides and the Mariners would win and hooray cake and ice cream for everyone!

In the real world, oh god oh god oh god we are so bleeping screwed. Just lie back and think of England.

Also, this is just a three game series in May that decides nothing.

Tue May 4, 19:10: Jason Vargas* vs. James Shields

Wed May 5, 19:10: Cliff Lee* vs. Matt Garza

Thur May 6, 19:10: Ryan Rowland-Smith* vs. Jeff Niemann

Cliff Lee! Wooo!

We are tossing three straight lefties at the Rays which plays our strength against their weakness. Of course their "weakness" is like a slightly off colored cuticle to our gasping for breath while buried alive "strength". Meanwhile, they counter with three straight righties which gives us a very quick glimpse into seeing if Wakamatsu will actually utilize Ryan Langerhans in left to give Milton Bradley time at DH. While that might sadden those in the Griffey challenge, people who should be preparing for the inevitable zero home runs this entire year anyways, it would be potentially beneficial to the team.

Of course, James Shields' best pitch is his change up and the change up is a pitch best thrown to opposite-handed (read: left) hitters so it's not like we're scoring runs off him no matter which lefty DHs and which lefty plays left field.

Matt Garza is only partially jealous of how much Doug Fister relies on his fastball, but Garza's version actually misses bats so we're pretty screwed there. He also has a wicked slider which would be bad news bears if Adrian Beltre were still on this team but instead we have the better-glove, worse-bat Jose Lopez at third now so he'll pop out instead of strike out. Yay?

Jeff Niemann doesn't do anything particularly noteworthy except have a pulse but double blind studies have shown that to be enough to avoid giving up runs to the Mariners and RRS gets to face Evan Longoria so I'm expecting to lose this game negative 3 to 14.

Jason Vargas

Cliff Lee

Ryan Rowland-Smith

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	57%	88	40	35	35
Change	19%	80	80	75	50
Sinker	13%	84	50	30	40
Slider	8%	82	20	25	60
Overall	--	--	50	40	30

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	62%	90	70	80	45
Change	14%	83	50	75	55
Curve	9%	76	55	50	75
Sinker	9%	91	40	80	40
Slider	6%	85	35	80	45
Overall	--	--	50	80	45

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	51%	88	45	65	35
Curve	19%	72	35	75	70
Change	18%	80	50	50	40
Sinker	8%	88	20	50	20
Overall	--	--	35	60	35

James Shields

Matt Garza

Jeff Niemann

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	40%	91	50	70	55
Change	25%	82	80	80	55
Sinker	12%	89	50	45	30
Curve	12%	77	60	50	50
Slider	11%	86	20	65	70
Overall	--	--	75	70	55

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	70%	93	70	50	50
Slider	14%	85	70	60	50
Curve	9%	76	35	35	55
Change	7%	84	35	35	30
Overall	--	--	55	45	45

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	65%	91	45	70	50
Curve	15%	78	50	30	50
Slider	9%	84	40	65	20
Sinker	6%	90	25	35	55
Change	5%	83	80	50	30
Overall	--	--	40	55	40

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Comments

If the M's get swept here, I hope we don't hear from Geoff Baker that its because we threw 3 lefties in a row.

And only because they are the Rays.

by Kenny Knows Sports on May 4, 2010 1:33 PM PDT reply actions

You know there's a foolproof way of not hearing that from Geoff Baker, right?

by Matthew on May 4, 2010 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs

Yes and now that I think about it I've not been there in awhile.

Hmm… didn’t even notice.

by Kenny Knows Sports on May 4, 2010 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm also pretty much through with it. He has breaking news, but his commentary is

getting absurd. He goes out of his way these days to build an entire blog entry around the idea that Mike Sweeney is not to blame for anything, and that he’s hasn’t gotten a fair shake this year in regards to at-bats.

If I have to see him mention ST stats and Sweeney’s second half from 2009 again, while ignoring his overall numbers from the last 4-5 years, I just might boycott that site for good. Seriously, two of his last three or four blog commentary thingies seem to just be an attempt to chastize those like Dave Cameron for being hard on Sweeney.

by Rudy4three on May 4, 2010 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions

I wont turn this into a Geoff Baker thing

But it always seemed like the only job he wanted was to write for the Blue Jays and the only job we wanted him to have.. was to write for the Blue Jays.

I don’t know what team Dave Niehaus rooted for when he grew up, but I know that we endeared ourselves to him because to us he is only about the Mariners.

Once the Edgar stuff came out last year, then I knew for sure he could just go fuck himself. But I was still checking in when I was waiting for breaking news and I don’t use twitter.

by Kenny Knows Sports on May 4, 2010 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Careful, you might get yourself a starring role in his next post.

Also, I don’t use twitter either, but I still have This bookmarked.

by Eyeball Kid on May 4, 2010 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't know that the Blue Jays was the job he always wanted. He goes

out of his way to say that he’s from Montreal and doesn’t particularly like Toronto.

My issue is that he holds himself up as a “real writer” because he works for a newspaper, and he’s condescending towards the blog writers, who have more baseball knowledge than he does, and express is just as eloquently.

by Rudy4three on May 4, 2010 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions

You're right, it was the Expos, he just never shutup about the Blue Jays.

I worked at the Seattle Times sports section for about 6 months. I never saw him once and nobody in there had anything good to say about him.

Danny O’Neil on the other hand is the man and I do respect his blogging.

by Kenny Knows Sports on May 4, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions

His BS about the NL

You could smell his NL-bias in the explanation for not voting for Edgar. He’s covered AL teams for how long now? And he still can’t get over the DH?

by short on May 4, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Now that you mention Baker, did he and USSM have a falling out or something?

i noticed that Dave or whoever took Baker’s blog off of the blog list.

Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on May 4, 2010 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions

In a ways.

It’s not really worthy of being talked about here.

by Matthew on May 4, 2010 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Got it.

Because we’re rebels. Accurate, intelligent, introspective rebels. And damn proud of it my friend. - CapSea
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on May 4, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions

I predict we sweep them

Yippie ki yay motherfuckers

by Dewey N on May 4, 2010 1:33 PM PDT reply actions

Is Felix slotted to go Friday against the Angels then?

Lee is going with 4 days rest, is Felix getting that extra day because of his back?

by Mataya on May 4, 2010 1:36 PM PDT reply actions

On the GriffLent topic you mentioned.

Glad I’m not one of the suckers participating in this.

What happens when Griffey hits 0 home runs this year (which he probably will)? If he never hits another home run in his life, are the participants ever off the hook?

by ARock on May 4, 2010 1:36 PM PDT reply actions

I'm thinking I'll resume cookie-eating the day after the WS if it comes to that.

Others can make their own decisions on the topic.

by RunningFool on May 4, 2010 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Seems logical to give up after the last day of the regular season if we don't make the playoffs

Or, if he pulls a Mike Schmidt (oh please oh please oh please oh please) y’all should be release immediately. Now if he just goes on the 60-day DL…well then that’s a gray area.

Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
The first rule of Lookout Landing is...

by appleshampoo on May 4, 2010 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions

I can't believe there is an offense worse than ours.

Our team wOBA is worse than 2009 Josh Wilson’s and our ISO is less than 2009 Ichiro’s.

@ERiC_UW

by lailaihei on May 4, 2010 1:40 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

Something tells me we won't be 29th for long when Lee, Berkman, Pence bounce back.

by Kenny Knows Sports on May 4, 2010 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions

You don't think we'll pick up a bit when Ichiro, Chone and Bradley bounce back?

by Eyeball Kid on May 4, 2010 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Wouldn't that even out with a pitching adjustment?

I’m not sure I’m interpreting this correctly, but our bullpen is god awful and our rotation is middling to bad according to tRA?

by Drew_D on May 4, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions

The rotation has been below average overall, but that's almost entirely RRS.

And I have to think the bullpen would be fine if it were used better.

by Teej on May 4, 2010 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Fuckin RRS

by Dewey N on May 4, 2010 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm not sure what you mean

Pitching has nothing to do with wOBA

by Eyeball Kid on May 4, 2010 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions

Right

Pays to read the post before the reply you’re replying to.

by Drew_D on May 4, 2010 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Of course I don't if Houston is really going to finish ahead of us in wOBA

But those 3 players you mentioned for us don’t have as far to climb as Houstons hitters. And aren’t as good as what Berkman is and what Lee was and could still be partly.

Ichiro is 32 points below his career wOBA
Figgins is 30 points below his career
Bradley 45 points below

Berkman is 75 points below
Carlos Lee is 147 points below
Pence is 106 points below

by Kenny Knows Sports on May 4, 2010 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions

The Astros are also 43 runs below average while we are "merely" at -25 runs.

That amazes me. Our offense, as putrid as it has been, has been worth almost two wins more than Houston’s offense. Two wins!

by Dewey N on May 4, 2010 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Would still love to have Pence in left, Lee at DH, and Berkman at 1st.

by Kenny Knows Sports on May 4, 2010 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Okay so I didn't know those guys were doing that badly.

by Eyeball Kid on May 4, 2010 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Mariners Offense.........

Given they way the M’s have played offensively lately I will be happy if we take one game out of this series, but I will be praying for a sweep.

by hugh w on May 4, 2010 1:43 PM PDT reply actions

From which side of the broom?

by d0nkey on May 4, 2010 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Now would be a good time to tweak the lineup a little bit.

by ThundaPC on May 4, 2010 1:44 PM PDT reply actions

This post

is both hilarious and depressing at the same time. -3 to 14…we can only hope.

Anaheim. Fuck 'em.

by Sass on May 4, 2010 1:47 PM PDT reply actions

I like it, I'm feeling mentally prepared to anticipate the M's getting swept again.

If they win, it’ll be a pleasant surprise!

Milton Bradley apologist

by sanford_and_son on May 4, 2010 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions

I like that we are playing the Rays here. This team needs to get it's focus and collective

act together. Having a day off and now having the best team in baseball (record wise) coming in, I would expect the guys know they are gonna have to bring it if they don’t want to get embarrassed.

Although I suppose you can argue that even if we “bring it”, if they “bring it”, they will sweep us.

by Rudy4three on May 4, 2010 2:20 PM PDT reply actions

At least now, when we lose, I can just shrug and say "hey, it's the Rays"

Rather than throw up my hands and say “how the fuck did we lose to the Royals?”

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on May 4, 2010 2:25 PM PDT reply actions

Well, at least we're seeing Niemann instead of Price.

@ERiC_UW

by lailaihei on May 4, 2010 2:49 PM PDT reply actions

We really don't talk about the Rays here enough.

by Sec 108 on May 4, 2010 2:58 PM PDT reply actions

Lineup posted.

Ugh.

Question: Are we allowed to avidly boo Griffey yet? Has anyone done this at Safeco?

Twitter. Blog.

by hova9 on May 4, 2010 3:20 PM PDT reply actions

Go top 4!

by Dewey N on May 4, 2010 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions

Seriously.

Why the fuck is Griffey batting 5th?

Karma police, arrest this man.

by wyte_lightning on May 4, 2010 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Why the fuck is Griffey batting?

Fixed it.

Everything is Rob Johnson's fault.

by the other side on May 4, 2010 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions

If I record myself yelling the word RETIRE

could someone play it at Safeco when Griffey and Sweeney are up?

by Eyeball Kid on May 4, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll yell it for you tonight. I will give it my best and hope you hear it.

by Sec 108 on May 4, 2010 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions

If you give it your best, he'll hear it.

by Aaron Campeau on May 4, 2010 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions

I did it all last year so I don't see why not

by Aaron Campeau on May 4, 2010 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Why is Kotchman batting 7th against a righty?

by OlSalty on May 4, 2010 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Seriously.

Swapping Kotchman and Griffey would make this bearable until Jr plays his way out of the lineup.

Twitter. Blog.

by hova9 on May 4, 2010 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions

I wonder how low Griffey's ever hit

since he was a rookie? Would it be a huge deal if Wak put him seventh?

by short on May 4, 2010 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions

According the baseball-reference

He has hit in every spot in the order in his career..

by seattlesundevil on May 4, 2010 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Never STARTED below 7th though

by seattlesundevil on May 4, 2010 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Well, it's a start.

Glad Bradley is back batting 4th. Kotchman really needs to be hitting higher up in the order, especially ahead of Griffey and Lopez. Griffey should be pretty low in the order if they’re really trying to get him going. Hey, Jack Wilson got promoted everybody!

by ThundaPC on May 4, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions

Wilson's got the third highest batting average on the team! At .243!

by Dewey N on May 4, 2010 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Unless I'm missing something, Kotchman has actually been our best hitter so far this year against RHP

by OlSalty on May 4, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually nevermind, Ichiro has been better

Second best.

by OlSalty on May 4, 2010 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Ichiro is kind of a given.

Everything is Rob Johnson's fault.

by the other side on May 4, 2010 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Bradley hitting clean up, yes please.

Switch Griffdawg and Kotchman and we’d be set……that is if they insist on Griffdawg being in the lineup tonight.

Milton Bradley apologist

by sanford_and_son on May 4, 2010 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions

At least the top 4 are correct.

Sadly, it doesnt continue:
5 Kotchman
6 Lopez
7 Langerhans (with Bradley DH)

by ARock on May 4, 2010 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Seconded

by tait644 on May 4, 2010 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd like to start seeing a lineup with Sweeney leading off as catcher.

I give it til the 2nd inning until he hits the DL. Hard to get hurt when you’re a backup, part-time DH.

by Kenny Knows Sports on May 4, 2010 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Well

The guys sitting with me at the games have been regularly shouting “Retire!” after each time Sweeney and Griffey make an out. oscartehgrouch even yelled something about a fat piece of shit and got some dirty looks from the people around is.

Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
The first rule of Lookout Landing is...

by appleshampoo on May 4, 2010 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes

by Graham MacAree on May 4, 2010 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I booed Sweeney when he came up to pinch hit in that awful 12-inning game...

Then that bastard grounded into a double play.

I think if Griff starts getting booed and then does bad things people might start to think “hey wait maybe that booing guy has something right going on there.”
Or not.

@ERiC_UW

by lailaihei on May 4, 2010 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions