Why David Aardsma Should Be Traded

Note: This post was not influenced by today's transgressions, and all statistics used in this post are current as of yesterday, 5/29.

It's clear that David Aardsma is a good reliever. Is he a good closer? That's up for debate. Either way, Aardsma shouldn't be on the team come next spring, and here's why.

1. The Situation: The Mariners currently sit at 19-30, as they've played their way out of contention and found ways to lose all season. It's come to light that the team is still heavily in "rebuilding" mode despite a winning record last season. Teams in rebuilding mode have little use for closers to give them that extra marginal win that becomes crucial in a playoff push. In other words, teams currently in the playoff hunt (or half the league) will value Aardsma's services much more than the Mariners will.

2. The Player: Last year David Aardsma posted 1.9 fWAR in a successful year as the teams closer, in large part due to a 4.2% HR/FB rate. Coming into this year, most predicted some regression to Aardsma's career HR/FB rate of 8.4%, resulting in a much weaker performance. It is fair to say that many of the warning track fly balls that were granted to Aardsma last year have left the yard, as he holds a 10.5% rate this season, albeit small sample size. While his FIP stood at 3.01 in 2009, his xFIP sat a full run higher at 4.12, suggesting Aardsma's luck in preventing home runs. When all is said and done, the DA is not a closer as strong as the one we observed last year. However, his apparent value to other teams is much higher (think Mets, Royals, and teams that value the Save). Aardsma is a very strong reliever, and can aid other teams much more than he can help us.

3. The Money: Aardsma received a $2.75m contract this offseason as a result of the arbitration process. While that price is below his market value, will his 2011 contract be reasonably priced? If we assume the normal 40/60/80 split with regards to arbitration, that estimates a roughly $4m contract for Aardsma next season. While it's likely that his market value will eclipse the $4m threshold, it's not something that the Mariners should be willing to pay. In my opinion, you should only pay good money for relievers who consistently put up high-caliber years. Given Aardsma's tendency to pitch up in the zone and give up a lot of home runs, he's not someone who can continually post strong numbers. Essentially, a team in a situation like the Mariners should not dole out money to a player of Aardsma's caliber, as the extra $4 million can be used much more efficiently.The one thing an MLB team should not waste money on, especially a team that needs to re-evaluate their roster, is relievers.

4. The Package: By himself, Aardsma will likely pick up a mid-level or lower prospect. However, grouped with other players, perhaps Jose Lopez, Aardsma can be a key in bringing back major league talent or a high-level prospect. The Mariners found themselves in a similar situation with JJ Putz a while back, and we all saw how Jack and Co. can find undervalued commodities by trading away packages including closers. Combining the advantage in trading Aardsma with the potential return in a package deal puts trading the DA over the top.

The Con

The huge underlying factor in trading Aardsma is whether or not the Mariners have capable relievers ready to take his place. Shawn Kelley or Brandon League perhaps, but the point is trading Aardsma opens up a wound in an already hurting bullpen. However, relievers are much more replaceable than starters or position players, and roles in the bullpen can be filled much easier.

Given the situation the Mariners are in, the player that Aardsma is, the money he is owed, and the return he can bring, it is my opinion that he should be traded. What are your opinions?