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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

18-28, Random Thoughts

I don't even pretend to fill in for Jeff when it comes to post-game thoughts, much less when I don't even have the opportunity to really focus on the game in his absence. I don't even have a plan for this. What follows are some thoughts that come to mind as I stare at all this empty white space. God I hope this goes well.

Going back to yesterday, there is a tendency to characterize Doug Fister's performance as "solid", "not great" or some other grouping of adjectives that generally means unimpressive but serviceable. In reality, Fister was better than that. He didn't miss many bats, just four in 102 pitches, but Detroit has a high contact lineup and missing bats isn't Fister's game to begin with.

What Fister has always specialized in is hitting the zone. By my count , 57 of his 102 pitches were in the strike zone which is an above average number. He induced enough swings on pitches outside the zone that only 35 pitches were recorded as balls. That 34.3% is a fairly good rate.

What has separated Fister in 2010 from Fister before is the increased ground balls and that is where last night's start jumps from satisfactory to legitimately good in my mind. 28 balls were put in play and 17 of them were on the ground. Another two were infield popups and seven went as fly balls. Merely two were categorized as line drives. On the whole, tRA evaluated Fister's start at 2.77.

Yesterday, David Aardsma threw 15 pitches, all of them fastballs. In total, the Tigers saw 132 pitches yesterday between Fister, Shawn Kelley and Aardsma. 104 of them were fastballs.

Moving ahead to today, a depressing thing happened with our offense. Through his first 51 pitches, Jeremy Bonderman recorded just one missed bat. Over his final 42 pitches, he would miss 11 bats. Something seriously went wrong with our offensive approach and discipline over those innings. 

Speaking of missing bats, Jason Vargas was all kinds of unhittable today despite not getting the strikeouts to show for it. He tossed just five innings due to a high pitch count thanks to some defensive miscues and Ryan Raburn's irritating foul balls, but in those five innings Vargas missed 15 bats in his 109 pitches. That ties him with Felix for the most by any Seattle pitcher in one game all season long. Of the list of most missed bats, Felix had six of the top seven with only Cliff Lee joining him. Now he's tied with Jason Vargas. Time to step up, Felix.

Felix took 113 pitches to record 15 swinging strike by the way.

Vargas was not nearly as groundbally as Fister, but that's to be expected. He did a similarly good job as Fister at avoiding line drives, surrendering just two. 

Ryan Rowland-Smith appeared for the second time out of the pen to relieve Vargas and only got through two outs before being yanked. It was not really his fault and some, including myself, initially questioned the short leash on RR-S when we needed to soak up innings, but I have come around to the decision. First of all, Wak replaced RR-S with Brandon League which hints that he was trying to limit the damage and keep the Mariners in the game, at the time just 3-1, rather than it being simply a reactionary pulling. Secondly, there is a day off tomorrow and there was one on Monday so using RR-S to rest the remainder of the pen is rendered moot by the schedule.

Brandon League by the way threw seven offspeed pitches out of his total of 28 and got four of seven batted balls on the ground. It wasn't his best first batter ever, but he settled down quick after that and gave the team 2.1 innings of solid relief.

There have been times during this season that as little as a one run deficit in the third inning has felt insurmountable. This team was down 4-1 in the sixth and I didn't feel it a helpless endeavor. I think having a lineup that's not fit to get a manager committed has a lot to do with that. 

Ichiro is fine.

According to Larry Stone, Josh Bard has a mild calf strain and will be evaluated tomorrow. This does not appear to be serious, but do expect to see more Rob Johnson in the near future. On the subject of Rob, I bestow some rare kudos to him for not committing any egregious gaffes behind the plate and adding a huge double in the four-run eighth inning.

The Mariners take tomorrow off and travel down to Anaheim to open up a three game set with the Angels. Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez will be involved and one of Ian Snell or Doug Fister will be as well. Taking two against Detroit is a good first step, but this is showtime now. 10 of the next 14 games are against divisional foes. If the Mariners are going to be a factor this summer, they have to make a statement here.

Comment 65 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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Agreed. Where for art thou, Sweeney?

No, but seriously. What’s going on with that guy? Chuckled when USSM posted the lineup and listed him as “Hot Streak Hero”. And then he goes out and goes 2-4 with a 2R HR. Unreal.

by Kingdomer on May 26, 2010 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Definition: Random

Main Entry: ran·dom
Pronunciation: \ˈran-dəm\
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English, succession, surge, from Anglo-French randun, from Old French randir to run, of Germanic origin; akin to Old High German rinnan to run — more at run
Date: 1561

: a haphazard course

— at random : without definite aim, direction, rule, or method, subjects chosen at random

by Sec 108 on May 27, 2010 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions   7 recs

I'm extremely nervous but cautiously optimistic about this weekend

I’m just not ready for this season to be a lost cause yet, ya know?

My Mariners blog SodoMojo, My Twitter Feed

by Griffin Cooper on May 26, 2010 9:15 PM PDT reply actions  

Goddamn hope is back.

When the hell did that happen?

David Eckstein is gonna fuck you up, Niehaus. - Jeff

by the other side on May 26, 2010 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Don't worry,

I’m not going to be in Portland this weekend.

"Fights begin, finger prints are took, days is lost, bail is made, court dates are ignored, cycle is repeated."

by Thingray on May 27, 2010 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

This series may be the most important one all season.

Not whether we win or lose, but what the guys “belief system” tells them when it’s over. Even as I type this I know this is so %^^$#-up.

by TrustBaseball on May 27, 2010 11:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good stuff Matthew.

“Ichiro is fine”….Perfect

David Eckstein is gonna fuck you up, Niehaus. - Jeff

by the other side on May 26, 2010 9:37 PM PDT reply actions  

Exactly, Ichiro is fine, he's Ichiro. Give me another 20 at bats and if we're in the same

situation I might start to worry (not really, it will take more than that). I had to rec this as I appreciate your post game comments. Thank you.

by TrustBaseball on May 26, 2010 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

If at this point in your baseball watching life you still question Ichiro's ability as a baseball player

there’s almost no hope for you.

Unless you’re asking “when will there be people on base for Ichiro to drive in” in which case I don’t know.

by pdb on May 27, 2010 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ichiro's career slash line with men on base: .334/.406/.423...

With RISP, this becomes .337/.440/.417.

Will he ever hit with men on base? A nine-year career offers an unequivocal yes.

by harkening on May 27, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well your data seems to indicate that he hits well with men on and men in SP

But I swear the last couple of years he’s been not strong with men on. Do I question his skills, dear god no, fave player for years and I consider him a first ballot HOFer but come on, when the box says he went 2 for 4 the two is usually when no one was on. If he has a weakness, besides not drawing more walks as I’ve heard mentioned, is that I think he tightens up with men on. Hell this whole team is. Wak, loosen these boys up. They can hit, why aren’t they?

by Great Sergios Ghost on May 30, 2010 12:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

We are 3-3 since Miltons return

And I think I remember someone saying we were 14-14 when he started before. He’s a very important dynamic, which can’t be said enough. Good lineups Wak, keep it up!

by Kenneth Arthur on May 26, 2010 9:49 PM PDT reply actions  

The team is 8-9 in Sweeney starts

14-13 in Milton starts.

5-6 in Saunders starts.

4-4 in Bard starts.

8-17 in Jr starts.

It seems like you ge this now Wak.

by Kenneth Arthur on May 27, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

i don't understand the schedule coming up.

Two days off this week. Then we go to Anaheim. Then we come back for seven against Minnesota and Anaheim. Then we have a ten game road trip to Texas, San Diego and St. Louis before a day off.

by Mariner John on May 26, 2010 10:41 PM PDT reply actions  

The close losses are heartbreaking

But these close wins feel nice. I’m happy that we are getting some breaks our way now. Since this team scores and allows so few runs, I imagine we will have a ton of close games and therefore will have exciting/heartbreaking games all the time.

by Edgar for Pres on May 26, 2010 10:44 PM PDT reply actions  

Yes, I know luck doesn't work this way and all that

but it sure would be nice to fall more on the positive side going forward in these next two weeks after coming up short so often in the previous two months.

by Omerta on May 27, 2010 9:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

I find it hard to concentrate when there aren't bullet points

What an eighth inning. Sweeney, Lopez, Johnson, Wilson? Honestly, had I been at home watching the game, I probably would have taken a break while the M’s were hitting to do a quick chore or run and get the mail. Amazing stuff.

Get better, Bard. You are loved.

by Teej on May 26, 2010 10:46 PM PDT reply actions  

My sentiments exactly. I had to step away in the 8th to sign for a package from FEDEX.

Best signing I’ve ever done and didn’t feel like I would be missing much. I caught it all on the re-broadcast of the game. How wrong was I?

Feel better soon, Bard.

by TrustBaseball on May 26, 2010 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Get well soon, Mr. Bard!
On the subject of Rob, I bestow some rare kudos to him for not committing any egregious gaffes behind the plate

“Good job using the crosswalk instead of running between moving traffic, Rob!”

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on May 26, 2010 11:10 PM PDT reply actions   9 recs

Great job Matthew.

I enjoy your analytical approach to writing.

Dissenting opinions are welcome, and should be encouraged, at Lookout Landing. -LL Style Guide

by MT Olson on May 26, 2010 11:55 PM PDT reply actions  

Great work.

I appreciate you posting this as I love to read post game comments. Especially games I was unable to watch all of. Thank you.

by Hopefulmsfan on May 27, 2010 1:53 AM PDT reply actions  

Thank you

I appreciate post game comments very much, as I usually am teaching English class in South Korea during the mornings when the Mariners are playing (16 hours ahead time difference)…thanks for keeping us all informed.

by DaeguDave on May 27, 2010 7:06 AM PDT reply actions  

WOOO!

South Korea is awesome!

by Slow Country on May 27, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions   3 recs

Great Comments

After yesterday’s game, I can’t believe there isn’t a scouting report in the league that doesn’t read “don’t throw Mike Sweeney strikes, he swings at everything”. Sure he hit the home run, but the at bat before that was bad. Yuniesky bad.

You can't be a catcher if you can't catch. Rob Johnson will henceforth be listed as a traffic cone on the roster.

by Drew_D on May 27, 2010 9:50 AM PDT reply actions  

Or Chone Figgins balls

Do you want to hear about my fantasy team?

by Cantu Easley Winn on May 27, 2010 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

You seem to underestimate how bad MLB pitchers are at throwing the ball over the plate

although to be fair, umps tend to call a much smaller strike zone than the rulebook really indicates

by seattlebruin on May 27, 2010 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Except for some umpires

that have an oddly shaped strike zone. Rhomboids, or penta hexa thingamabobs.

I’d need to recall geometry to compute the area and compare it to what the rulebook says the area should be (that would be easier, I can handle rectangles).

by Paul AB on May 27, 2010 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Basically cut your shape into triangles,

then area = sum of the triangles’ area. Triangle area = (1/2)xLengthxWidth

Charter Member: Dave Sims Sweet Hat Club

by Two Rs and Two Ls on May 27, 2010 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

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