Pitches Per Plate Appearance Through the Years
No, it may not be doing this team any good in terms of scoring runs this season, but I'm always a supporter of hitters who work counts. They knock the starting pitcher out of games both by ratcheting up his overall pitch count and because large pitch count innings decrease a pitcher's effectiveness, leaving him open to big offensive outputs. In war metaphor terms, having hitters who see a lot of pitches is akin to having more troops at your disposal. It's an endurance advantage.
Suffice to say that the Mariners over the past few years have not been the greatest practitioners of said strategy. Bill Bavasi seemed to care nary a whit about plate discipline and our team was "blessed" with such free swingers as Yuniesky Betancourt, Kenji Johjima, Jose Guillen, Adrian Beltre and others. Those four are gone and have been replaced by slightly more patient bats by Jack Zduriencik. All through the lineup, plate discipline has been paid attention, with the results speaking for themselves.
In 2007, at 3.63, the Mariners ranked 30th in pitches seen per plate appearance (P/PA)
In 2008, at 3.69, the Mariners ranked 26th in P/PA
In 2009, at 3.78, the Mariners ranked 24th in P/PA
In 2010, at 3.95, the Mariners rank 6th in P/PA
It gets even more apparent when you look at one of the key benefits to taking more pitches: drawing walks.
In 2007, at 5.8%, the Mariners ranked 30th in BB%
In 2008, at 6.0%, the Mariners ranked 29th in BB%
In 2009, at 6.3%, the Mariners ranked 29th in BB%
In 2010, at 9.1%, the Mariners rank 11th in BB%
Some further miscellaneous P/PA facts continue below.
- Among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances in 2007, not a single hitter had a P/PA above 3.89. The average 2010 Mariner is at 3.95.
- Yuniesky Betancourt saw an average of 3.19 P/PA in 2007.
- That went down to 3.15 the following year.
- Among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances in 2008, only Ichiro Suzuki and Jose Lopez remain two years later. 16 of the 18 hitters have been replaced.
- The 2009 team leader in P/PA was Jack Hannahan at 4.29.
- Mike Sweeney was third-worst at 3.43, ahead of only Yuni and Kenji, and worse than Loafie and Beltre.
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It is all the more ironic that Sweeney was the player that went from KC to Seattle
While the Royals brought in Guillen, Olivo, Betancourt. Sweeney could have brought so much hackery to their squad. They never knew what they had!
One thing I never quite understood was why "bumping the SP out of the game" was a good thing
Maybe when you are facing an ace SP but shouldn’t the average RP have a lower FIP than the average SP. I could see “wearing down the bullpen” could be a good thing if you consistently knocked SP out early but when you only play a team for 3 game series it would be difficult to really wear down a team’s bullpen significantly.
Game 1 of a 3 or 4 game series?
Just sayin.
by Kenneth Arthur on May 20, 2010 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions
The faster you wear down the starter, the faster you can start wearing down the bullpen
those guys are in the pen for a reason – they can’t cut it if they have to throw a lot of innings
by seattlebruin on May 20, 2010 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I just don't think it happens very often in a series where a team is able to wear down a whole bullpen.
More likely, your SP staff suck which wear down the bullpen because they constantly have to save the day throughout the season.
by Edgar for Pres on May 20, 2010 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions
But middle relievers are generally not very good.
I would suspect the more you get to see of them the better.
If you bump a SP out of the game, it's the result of doing something good.
It’s talked about a lot but there is literally no change in approach, and thus means nothing.
How many leads has our bullpen coughed up in the last two weeks?
We are seeing on a daily basis why getting into the middle relief guys is a good thing
Additionally, within the context of a single at-bat
The more pitches you can make a pitcher throw, the more chance you have of him making a mistake.
by Matt Erickson on May 20, 2010 11:41 PM PDT up reply actions
I think another reason is...
sometimes, a pitcher just doesn’t have a feel for one of his pitches on a particular day. If you force another team to bring in several relievers or force those relievers to pitch on back-to-back days, then you increase the chance of running into a guy who doesn’t have it, and that can turn into a big inning.
Also you get to face a worn-out starting pitcher...
If the pitcher just cruises along then the other manager can easily warm up the a relief pitcher and transition him in at will at the first sign of fatigue, or even before.
Run up the pitch count and the other manager is going to be reluctant to pull him until things actually start going wrong. And when things start going wrong you may get to face a relief pitcher who had to rush his warm up.
If the opposing starter can hand it off to the set-up man & closer that's what the other team wants
The soft squishy filling in the middle relief. Other teams have Sean Whites and Jesus Columes too. They just don’t use them in the 8th inning of a close game.
Huh Mike Sweeney has had a reverse platoon split while with the M's so far:
Sweeney v. RHP ’10 .241/.303/.552 9.1 BB% 13.8K% 31AB
Sweeney v. LHP ’10 .190/.261/.238 4.3% 19.0K% 23AB
Sweeney v. RHP ’09 .340/.377/.434 4.4BB% 9.4% K 106AB
Sweeney v.LHP ’09 .235/.303/.449 7.9%BB 15.4% K 136 AB
In Sweeney’s 09 campaign 7 of his 8 HR came from LHP in his ’10 campaign all three have come of RHP.
You got slurved!
One thing to think about
Our BB% has increased a lot because we are taking pitches but our K% has also jumped alot. Is this related? Do players who have higher P/PA strike out more or do players who strike out more have higher P/PA? I imagine striking out more is going to hurt our BA and OBP. I’m guessing that we should expect the increase in BB% to offset any decrease we see in our OBP from making less contact.
by Edgar for Pres on May 20, 2010 10:44 PM PDT reply actions
And as a result I find this team much more enjoyable to watch.
Even though the offense has struggled, it’s nice to know that most of the hitters we have now have a game plan at the plate as opposed to simply swinging at everything.
We haven't had a batter swing yet this year on a 3-0 count
by Edgar for Pres on May 20, 2010 11:58 PM PDT reply actions
But we are actually swinging a lot on 2-0 and 3-1 counts
I hit a Baseball Reference gold mine.
by Edgar for Pres on May 20, 2010 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions
More accurately, we haven't had a batter hit a ball fair this year on a 3-0 count
I think Guti swung at a 3-0 pitch on Wednesday.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 21, 2010 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah I thought it included anything. My numbers might just have been out of date.
Gathered here.
by Edgar for Pres on May 21, 2010 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions
I was wrong about Guti swinging 3-0
So nevermind. You’re in the clear! Hooray!
by Jeff Sullivan on May 21, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions
It wasn't me
It was you vs. Baseball Reference. You aren’t gonna win that battle
by Edgar for Pres on May 21, 2010 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Another thing to think about
Mariners have seen 5888 pitches this season which is actually below average by ~100 pitches. They might have a high P/PA but they don’t have that many PA because they are making alot of outs.
I can understand that increasing P/PA would be desirable if all other things stay the same
but it’s hard to not notice that despite the good P/PA numbers 2010 has the worst offensive numbers.
Yeah I agree,
While longer at bats are nice, scoring runs is much much nicer. Maybe if this team starts to hit it will matter more, but right now it doesn’t. Well I guess it is good, i mean we could have a free swinging lineup and still suck as much as we offensively, that’d be frustrating.
by WestCoastBias. on May 21, 2010 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Increasing the odds of a good outcome does not guarantee a better outcome.
But that doesn’t mean its not worthwhile to increase the odds!
And if you can establish a causal link between the two
then it would be relevant
The Mariners are swinging less at pitches out of the zone which is good
But also swinging less at pitches in the zone. Basically they are just swinging less at everything. This should lead to more walks but also more strikeouts.
I went to fangraphs and pulled up some of the plate discipline stats they have.
2010
Oswing% = 26.1%
Zswing% = 61.7%
Zswing%/Oswing% = 2.36
2007
Oswing% = 27.8%
Zswing% = 68.4%
Zswing%/Oswing% = 2.46
Could you make the claim that the 2007 Mariners actually had better plate discipline?
by Edgar for Pres on May 21, 2010 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions

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