Some Unlucky Bounces

Looking at a hitter's line drive rate and BABIP has been the generally accepted quick way to see if someone has been getting lucky or not on hits. There's a couple problems with it though. One is that sample size issues can be a problem. Also, hitters are individually different beasts and so applying a one size fits all rule is going to overgeneralize. Lastly, even ignoring those, those two pieces of information cannot tell you what kinds of hits are (or not) falling in. 

This is where wOBAr can pitch in. wOBAr takes a hitter's batted ball types and uses his own past success rates on each type to generate an expected wOBA line. There's some more stuff in this thread which I link to with a note saying that I've since exempted home runs from the regression. I took at the Mariners' park-adjusted wOBA's and their corresponding wOBAr's and using the difference (Diff) between the two, calculated the amount of runs that difference would entail.

Player Diff Runs
Griffey 15.9 0.9
Bradley 3.6 0.2
Wilson -27.5 -1.8
Suzuki 14.2 1.3
Figgins 10.1 0.9
Kotchman 61.9 4.8
Gutierrez -51.4 -4.6
Lopez -7.4 -0.7
Johnson 27.9 1.1
Byrnes 23.1 0.7
Moore 26.7 1.0
Langerhans 174.4 0.2
Sweeney 62.0 1.7
Tuiasosopo 17.4 0.3

Negative in the runs column means that the players has been "lucky" and that regressing his wOBA to his wOBAr would subtract away that many runs from the team. The total difference in runs scored? Six. That doesn't sound like a lot but over just 24 games that's a whopping 0.25 runs per game, which is quite huge. And given how close our games are, those missing runs are potentially even more impactful. 

True, the offense isn't stellar, but it's also been a tad snake bit so try not to freak yourself out too much.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Lookout Landing

You must be a member of Lookout Landing to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Lookout Landing. You should read them.

Join Lookout Landing

You must be a member of Lookout Landing to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Lookout Landing. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker