Offensive Curse Deepens

Our offense is snake bit and it appears that they've let the antivenin stores expire.

About two weeks ago I took a look at the team's park adjusted wOBAs against their regressed wOBAs as a way of picking out some of the luck that our hitters have experienced. What I did then:

wOBAr takes a hitter's batted ball types and uses his own past success rates on each type to generate an expected wOBA line. There's some more stuff in this thread which I link to with a note saying that I've since exempted home runs from the regression. I took at the Mariners' park-adjusted wOBA's and their corresponding wOBAr's and using the difference (Diff) between the two, calculated the amount of runs that difference would entail.

I felt it time for an update, so here is the results from the same procedure:

Player Diff Runs
Josh Bard 56.8 0.3
Milton Bradley 5.9 0.4
Eric Byrnes 26 0.9
Chone Figgins 30.7 4.5
Ken Griffey Jr. 33.6 2.8
Franklin Gutierrez -24.1 -3.3
Rob Johnson 60.1 3.7
Casey Kotchman 72.6 8.6
Ryan Langerhans -49.8 -1.3
Jose Lopez 26.9 3.8
Adam Moore 18.4 0.9
Michael Saunders 27.1 0.7
Ichiro Suzuki -4.4 -0.7
Mike Sweeney 55 2.4
Matt Tuiasosopo 37.7 1.1
Jack Wilson -46.1 -3.3
Josh Wilson 44.8 1.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Negative in the runs column means that the players has been "lucky" and that regressing his wOBA to his wOBAr would subtract away that many runs from the team. Last time through there was a team total of six runs that they were unlucky. We were 24 games through the season at the point so the run scoring was about 0.25 runs per game below what we would expect given each player's recent batted ball rates.

This time the difference has jumped to 23.3 runs after just 14 additional games. Based on this measure of luck, the Mariner offense has been unlucky to the tune of almost 1.25 runs per game over the last fortnight. That's insane. In aggregate, the team is around 0.6 runs per game unlucky now. Not impressive enough for you? If that keeps up for an entire season, that's 100 runs lost. 100!

We say it every day, this offense isn't this bad. They're getting unlucky. They're getting really freaking unlucky.

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