14-21, Chart
by Matthew on May 14, 2010 7:22 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Game Recaps
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Really? Are... are you sure it's over? We won?
Biggest Contribution: Doug Fister +.198
Biggest Suckfest: Casey Kotchman -.108
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Man that was a really enjoyable game.
Amazing how much more fun it is when you can watch some young talent succeed. Although watching Jose Lopez hit is going to make me start cutting myself.
The chart says we had about 80% of winning as we entered the bottom of the 9th
but really it felt like 50/50, or, maybe even worse.
Hot damn, we're back to .400
Only a couple of games away from being above the DH position’s batting average.
I can't resist clicking "Rec" when I see a post with four recs already.
combined
I can't resist clicking "Rec" when I see a post with four recs already.
by thehemogoblin on May 15, 2010 1:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Is there anything more we can ask from a 5th starter?
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
by JAH on May 14, 2010 8:18 PM PDT reply actions 6 recs
I really hope I'm not the only one here
Who is geek enough to recognize the pure awesomeness of this pic…
by ExiledToSoCal on May 14, 2010 11:06 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
That was probably the biggest upset of all.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on May 15, 2010 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I think I owe Sweeney an apology
I was too quick to assume he was done. He looked done, but 40 or so PAs is a comically small sample size. The past couple games, he’s been… good. I was wrong, Mike. Please continue proving me wrong. Please keep showing that regression works both ways.
by Jon S. on May 14, 2010 10:03 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
He's got more in the tank than Griffey.
But instead of the needle on E it’s simply in the red.
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
He may even be on fumes
but you can still get a few miles on fumes. Until Bradley is ready to take over as the full-time DH, I’m fine with Sweeney getting those PAs. And if he shows he’s got more than fumes, let him be our contingency plan in case of a Milton Meltdown (or injury).
Of course he’ll need to show us exactly what he has left, but I think he deserves the chance to do so. Don’t forget that last year he was a plus bat. We’re all anxious to see the DH situation improve, and there’s a real chance that it will if we get Sweeney some regular PAs.
by Jon S. on May 14, 2010 11:09 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
What are you basing this on? One good game?
Sweeney is a more useful player than Griffey at this point, but the difference is vanishingly small.
The team can, and should actively be trying to, improve on Sweeney’s .272 wOBA.
His wOBA is actually .318 after last night.
Things change in a hurry when you have less than 50 PAs. Not that .318 is good (though it does make him nearly league average), it’s just an improvment over yesterday morning’s .272. Also his BABIP (.219) will surely regress up towards the mean (.301), bringing each part of his triple slash up along with it. An 80 point improvement is probably not reasonable given his age, but a 50 point improvement seems inevitable.
Newfound statistical argument aside, I must admit my position on Sweeney was purely subjective. Right now, he just looks more like KC Sweeney at the plate than he did all of last year. And last year, he was a useful member of the team.
We should absolutely be looking to improve the DH situation. I just think that getting Sweeney regular reps may do that for us, at least until Bradley proves he’s ready to be a stable member of the team. Also Bradley needs to show he can hit better than Sweeney. Sweeney’s wOBA is significantly better than Bradley’s (.300) right now and Bradley has almost twice the PAs. Also, Bradley’s BABIP is just barely below his career average right now.
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 10:32 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
You're using the wrong mean for Mike Sweeney's BABIP
He hasn’t posted a BABIP above .300 since 2005. I think his true BABIP mean is probably around .270-.280
He said a .50 point improvement seems inevitable...
which would bring him up to .269
He's done because even if his bat isn't atrociously bad it's probably not going to be league average again and he can't play a position and he's right handed
I think once every team has realized that, you’re done.
He posted a wRC+ of 107 last year in irregular playing time.
That’s above average. As for the limited time, I don’t know how that affected him. Maybe the layoffs made him perform worse, maybe the favorable matchups made him perform better. I just can’t answer that.
by Jon S. on May 14, 2010 11:45 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
It was above average for a baseball player, not for a DH.
Well, that might not actually be true since DHs kind of suck ass right now for some reason. Maybe we’ve been blowing the curve for everyone else for a few years.
I'm trying to find the fangraphs article where I saw this...
A league average hitter is a replacement level DH. So though he may have been below average (don’t know if he actually was), he was definitely above replacement level, and therefore a useful, contributing member of the team.
I’m all for looking for a new DH. Sweeney is not a long-term solution. But in the meantime, we can do worse (and we have!).
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 10:40 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
He was above replacement level by about 4 runs over the course of a full season
If you’re happy with that from your DH I hope you like losing. Milton Bradley is a better hitter right now. Two years again in Texas, as a DH with mostly the same positional penalty as Sweeney, Milton Bradley was 38 runs above replacement level. Maybe Milton isn’t that player anymore, but we can be even more sure Sweeney isn’t the player he was because he has been nothing but a ~replacement level DH for the past 4 entire years.
by OlSalty on May 15, 2010 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hilarious.
Like a week of UZR. But subjectively, he looks good. He reminds me of KC Sweeney at the plate right now. Considering that Griffey is obviously out of gas, why not let Sweeney settle in at DH for a while? I’d like to see if this is more than just a few lucky swings. I think we may be pleasantly surprised. Also, we have nothing better right now.
by Jon S. on May 14, 2010 11:25 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
But I think we do have something better right now.
I like the guy, and I’d rather have him around than Griffey, but I still think it wouldn’t be difficult at all to put a better hitter in the DH spot. Bradley at DH and Langerhans/Saunders in left is an immediate, free upgrade.
Sweeney might still be able to be a league-average hitter. There’s a chance. But even if that happens, that’s not good enough for a DH on a team that’s trying to contend and whose position players are known more for their defense than their offense. We can do better quite easily. If he’s around as a pinch-hitter and Griffey is gone, I’ll leave it alone. But I don’t think either of those guys should be an everyday player. Bradley has the upside. Hell, right now I’d trust defensive specialist Ryan Langerhans to be a better DH than Sweeney or Griffey.
Bradley does have the upside, and I would love to see him earn the DH spot
but the results so far aren’t encouraging. In 80 PAs, Bradley’s wOBA is an even .300. In 46 PAs, Sweeney’s wOBA sits at .318 (nearly league average). Sweeney is in line for some serious BABIP regression upwards, while Bradley has to improve more than just his luck.
I know Bradley has more potential, and he should absolutely get PAs when he comes back from inside his own head, but right now he’s a downgrade from Sweeney.
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 10:51 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Based on what?
The last time Bradley was unarguably better than Sweeney was 2008. Last year, adjusting for park and league, they produced at almost the same rate:
Bradley’s ‘09 wRC+: 108
Sweeney’s ’09 wRC+: 107
There are other factors to consider, like the “DH penalty” and Milton’s personal problems, so we can’t say with any confidence who was better last year. But this year, wOBA is pretty clear on who has played better, and it’s Sweeney (.318), not Bradley (.300). And if you look at BABIP and K%, you can see that Sweeney has had poor luck and a decent approach, while Bradley has had a poor approach and decent luck.
I like Milton. I think he’s very talented and should have every chance to prove himself. But from where I’m standing, something has to change in his approach if he’s going to give our team a better chance to win than Sweeney.
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 11:47 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
What Bradley and Sweeney have done so far in 2010 means very very little
Last year, Bradley and Sweeney posted ~equal park-adjusted wOBAs, but Sweeney was working in a platoon role that saw him get 57% of his plate appearances against lefties. You can’t just do a straight comparison.
There’s also the matter of Bradley being five years younger and therefore projecting much better.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2010 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree. A direct comparison may not have been the best idea.
There’s lots of factors that we just can’t account for. Giving Sweeney more than half his PAs against lefties wasn’t a great idea either. Sweeney has a rather remarkable reverse platoon split.
Career wOBA vs RHP: .370
Career wOBA vs LHP: .342
This degree of reverse split has been pretty consistent throughout his career, so it stands to reason that giving him PAs against all pitchers (not just lefties) would improve his line.
I know Milton is the better option for the future, but right now he needs to earn the right to take PAs from Sweeney.
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 12:34 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
It's not so much what Sweeney has earned that Bradley hasn't.
It’s that Sweeney is outproducing Bradley. I’d love to see Bradley hit well enough to be our DH, but he’s not. When he comes back and shows us he is the better option, great. But until then, Sweeney gives us the best chance to win. We shouldn’t assume Bradley is the better option because of his talent, be should give him a chance to prove he’s better because of his talent.
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 2:56 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Balls. My iPhone is correcting my spelling incorrectly
I apologize for using “be” as the subject form of “us”.
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 3:05 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Well then
…how in the hell has that happened?
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2010 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions
If you are saying his mediocre 09 widened the split, you're right.
But the split has been there his whole career. He’s only hit lefties better than righties in two seasons (06 and 07).
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 2:59 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
A .318 wOBA is not league average for a DH
It varies a little from season to season, but it hovers around .360.
Anyway, I know you're happy that Sweeney had a good game, and so am I.
But he just isn’t very good at this point in his career, and a couple of good at-bats isn’t enough to make me re-evaluate that stance.
As well you shouldn't.
I respect your opinion, and in my gut I share much of that sentiment. I’m not really ready to trust in Sweeney as the full time DH, mostly because of his high-profile failures so far. But the statistics are telling me that it is our best option (possibly even a good option), at least until Bradley earns it.
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 12:00 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
No offense, but if that's what the statistics are telling you then you're reading them wrong.
by Aaron Campeau on May 15, 2010 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Well until Bradley comes back, realistically we can't do much better
I’d like to have Langerhans in there or something as he’s a lefty, but then we don’t have an OF.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2010 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure.
Which is a whole other kettle of annoying-assed fish, but yeah, Sweeney is probably the best option as DH right now. I think that Jon S. is arguing that he’s also the best option once Bradley comes back, but if I am incorrect then my apologies.
by Aaron Campeau on May 15, 2010 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I hate that Griffey is the dead one of the two
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2010 12:11 PM PDT up reply actions
I hate Griffey.
And God how I wish Zduriencik had the stones to just cut him. To be fair though, stones of that size would make walking difficult.
by Aaron Campeau on May 15, 2010 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Goddamn tanuki suit.
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
We should give Bradley every opportunity to take the job
but annointing him our everyday DH upon his return seems unwise to me.
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 3:02 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
To expand on that point
the sample size you are using to arrive at that conclusion is far, far too small. As Jeff mentioned, last year Sweeney put up a similar line to Bradley in far fewer PAs facing more than twice as many LHP than RHPs. If you take their last three seasons into account, Bradley projects to be far better going forward.
Also, the idea that Bradley has to “earn it” seems silly to me. He has earned, by virtue of being a far better player.
by Aaron Campeau on May 15, 2010 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, we've sortof been abusing wOBA in this subthread, myself included.
The fact that one game caused Sweeney’s wOBA to jump by 40 points should be a good indicator that you shouldn’t be talking as if it’s definitive of someone’s true talent level.
I thought we were using it as a judge of performance, not talent.
That, I think, is legit. I believe Bradley is more talented than Sweeney. I just see Sweeney performing better.
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 1:05 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Bradley is the better talent, not the better player right now.
He has performed worse than Sweeney this year. I want Milton to be our DH because he has the talent, but not until I know he’s going to hit better than Sweeney.
By the way, Sweeney has a huge reverse platoon split for his career.
by Jon S. on May 15, 2010 1:02 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
On that topic:
does anyone know where the gif originally comes from? I get that it appeared on LL via ‘08, but I feel like I’ve actually seen whatever old movie that features the clip. I saw this image and had a striking feeling of familiarity, but I can’t place it.
I would fuck Franklin right now.
MIKE BRUMLEY IS THE WORST PERSON EVER
by I Lick Squirrels on May 15, 2010 1:58 AM PDT up reply actions
This is...
what chemistry winning looks like!
Isn't it kindof mocking to use Fiddle Cat in a win vs. the Rays?
I still support it anyway
Charter Member: Dave Sims Sweet Hat Club
by Two Rs and Two Ls on May 15, 2010 12:38 AM PDT reply actions
Just to stop the conversation before it gets started
Pat Burrell got DFA’d by the Rays. Pat Burrell might be marginally better than Griffey but its not worth the PR hit of replacing Griffey with a maringally better player.
by Edgar for Pres on May 15, 2010 11:18 AM PDT reply actions
Goddammit, they couldn't have waited until after this series?
Now we’ll have another good bat to deal with.
by Eyeball Kid on May 15, 2010 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Burrell is terrible and in no way a solution for anything
by Jeff Sullivan on May 15, 2010 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Fuck Pat Burrell
He’s probably not even a replacement level player anymore.
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