1-1, Chart
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 6, 2010 10:27 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Game Recaps
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Biggest Contribution: Ian Snell, +25.0%
Biggest Suckfest: Kanekoa Texeira, -21.6%
Most Important AB: Bradley fly out, -8.0%; Gutierrez single, +8.0% (wild pitch: +9.7%)
Most Important Pitch: Ellis single, -38.3%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +31.7%
Total Contribution by Lineup: -91.9%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +10.2%
(What is this chart?)
212 comments
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i think biggest suckfest on tex is unfair
Maybe bradley was more deserving there, tex got out of the bot 9 jam and was looking good in the 10th before you know what happened…
by mariseanerhawk on Apr 6, 2010 10:30 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Those are calculated by WPA.
Not some arbitrary number Jeff decides to give a player.
by Jackle Mackle on Apr 6, 2010 10:32 PM PDT up reply actions
i get that totally, i just dont agree with the system.
maybe if milton had more patience and less hostility….
by mariseanerhawk on Apr 6, 2010 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions
The system is based on years and years and years of data.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 6, 2010 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions
And is a good way to dole out who was the best and worst
It beats the hell out of arbitrarily picking them by looks. The system tells you who screwed up or did well and, more importantly, when they did it and what it cost the team.
ok so maybe i'm just blind as to what tex did wrong then???
i dont care how many years of data you build, tex got us out of the bottom of the 9th and he was ahead on the 0-2 count and pitch low and out of the zone trying to a) get the K swinging or b) induce the groundball, both of which are the right thing to do. some one aid me in my confusion please.
by mariseanerhawk on Apr 6, 2010 11:12 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not about what he tried to do
but about what he did.
by RunningFool on Apr 6, 2010 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Follow the hotlink embedded in the chart "What's this chart?" in blue up there.
Nice tidy explanation all ready to go.
Texeria can do no wrong.
rawr
Carlos Silva is latin for "Let the buyer beware".
by ErictheRed on Apr 7, 2010 2:18 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
I wouldn't really pin it on Bradley either...
WPA sometimes doesn’t really give you the villain.
you mean 10 k's by the starter doesnt equal good stats for our line up??? thats bushly.
by mariseanerhawk on Apr 6, 2010 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Reason why I hate the six man pen especially with this current staff (minus Lee).
The manager has to stick with guys longer than normal. If he brings in League in the 10th to put out the fire, he’s got nearly nobody left.
I would recommend in the future, not using Kelley and Texeira in the same game, especially before you use all your other guys.
Biggest suckfest: Wakamatsu
What the fuck is up with his use of the bullpen?
n/s
I though the bullpen was used fine tonight, might have let Kelley go two innings, but I don’t have a big issue with it outside of that.
You don't put pitchers in the game just to get them work. You leverage your pitchers to improve your odds of winning.
Wak is operating with the first paradigm.
They were trying to "stretch out" Kelley in spring training to throw 3 innings as needed, and Mark Lowe is supposed to be able to go 2 innings-ish. After using three pitchers last night, Wak left himself with only one reliever who was "fresh" (Tex).
The idea that these early games are your chance to "get work in" has to go. Texeira wasn’t bad, but he was essentially thrown to the dogs. I’m sure League could have thrown some more pitches after last night, and DA is nominally an everyday closer–but in a tie ball game, high leverage situation, Wak had no idea if he was staring at a 9-inning game or a 15-inning game. If it goes 15, what then? I mean, honestly: what then?
If Kelley and Lowe go two innings tonight, then you don't have them tomorrow.
So Texeira likely would of had to pitch tomorrow anyways, plus he looked good. The bullpen is good, so outside of White I really don’t have a problem with any of these guys in a high leverage situation.
"would of?"
I’ve never understood where this comes from. It makes as much sense as typing “wood oeuvres.”
by short on Apr 6, 2010 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The contraction would've sounds similar to would of
by Mariner John on Apr 6, 2010 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Sure, but...
It simply doesn’t make sense to type “would of.” The words, put together like that, are senseless. I get why a lot of grammar mistakes happen, but that one has always eluded me.
He barely did anything wrong tonight
Only questionable call was yanking Kelley after one.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 6, 2010 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
That's where we disagree.
See above post. I’m not saying the result would have been different, but I’m process-oriented.
I think Jeff is process oriented as well.
I think he’s saying Wak barely did anything wrong.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 6, 2010 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I didn't understand only using Kelley for one. You only have two relievers capable of giving
multiple innings and you pull one guy after he pitches one, and you bring the other guy in shortly after. You are putting yourself in a tough spot where you can’t pull Texeira if he doesn’t have it because you may run out of relievers pretty quickley if you do.
Not saying Texeira pitched all that poorly tonight, but by bringing your last long man in so early
you have to stay committed to him longer than you might like
As useless as the 7th man in the pen usually is, it’s comforting for a manager to know he has some dude like Garrett Olson who can mop up 4-5 innings if need be. I think it allows a manager some freedom in his bullpen changes
Exactly!
Especially since Kanekoa has never seen anything ahead of AA ball. He’s good; he’s got talent. He’ll probably be a useful tool out of the bullpen this year. But I don’t like the use of him here.
I don't have much issue with the way he actually pitched, but if we
had a mop up guy in there, or if he hadn’t just burnt Kelley by using him one inning, then maybe he goes to League to get Ellis with two on and two out.
I don’t know, I just think you limit your freedom when you carry only six relievers and use both your long men so early in the game
You limit your freedom when your 'long man' can only go 1 inning...
If Kelley is going to be that guy then you have to be able to trust him to go more than 18 pitches in a tie game.
Hence the "or" instead of "and."
If you had gone to League, you still have Aardsma. If you go to Aardsma, you still have League. I’m not suggesting use both of them. I’m saying, in that situation, why put in Tex when one or the other is available?
Ah! I did not catch that Aardsma was up.
This makes all the difference.
Well if that is how our #4 pitcher is going to pitch, then I am looking forward to our rotation at full strength!
2009 Safeco Field Record: 6-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 10-4
Can someone explain the "?
I just got home and am trying to figure out what happened
That was supposed to say the "
it’s on the graph at Braden’s feet.
I think it's pointing at the design on his shoe
That’s covered up by his pant leg 95% of the time.
by Jackle Mackle on Apr 6, 2010 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Question mark
Denotes an interrogatory statement
by lemonverbena on Apr 6, 2010 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions
You guys can have Patterson
(first post on LL, I’m normally on AN)
"Do I talk to myself? No, I just remind myself of what I'm trying to do. You know, I never answer myself so how can I be talking to myself?" - Rickey
Everything is better with bacon.
by cuppingmaster on Apr 6, 2010 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions
What's Tui?
(Okay, only slightly better than chopped liver, but he is there!)
Then why don't you just marry him
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 6, 2010 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
But he's drinking your beer! Look at him!
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Apr 6, 2010 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions 18 recs
I was driving home from miserable Chehalis, so I did not see this.
by BrianL on Apr 6, 2010 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Agreed
Why in the name of hell were you in Chehalis Brian?
by Robert Lintott on Apr 7, 2010 5:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I could'nt take my eye off of the fact a Mariner fan has an avatar of Rex Hudler.
Bizarre and interesting at the same time.
The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com
Apathetic?
But what do you know, they have tools for that on this thing called the Internet. Like this one.
much agreed, Snell held his own well only allowing 1 run.
Can’t complain with that much.
by mariseanerhawk on Apr 6, 2010 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Where was the patience tonight?
Was Braden that deceptive? There were way too many swings on balls out of the strike zone. Since we don’t have a lot of power we’ve got to wait for the pitches that can be hit for something.
he must have been, 10k's hurt us bad... i mean i expect K's from Bradley and Byrnes but he had everyone fooled.
by mariseanerhawk on Apr 6, 2010 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions
I suppose you're right about the pitching. He was better than I've ever seen him.
Please capitalize where appropriate. They’re going to get mad at you. Play by the rules.
by TrustBaseball on Apr 6, 2010 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Bradley has swung-and-missed a lot so far
but I get the sense that when he makes contact with the ball, it’s gonna fly with Angry Man Power.
Batted .393/.614/.464 for 2009 Diablos, #5 in OBP for PSSBL Rocky Division.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Apr 6, 2010 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Are we talking about the same Bradley?
I’m pretty sure the Milton Bradley the M’s picked up is not a power guy… I see angry man pop up in the infield…Where’s Mike Sweeney?? We got 3 DH’s, so why not bat the one who showed off the most in spring training?
by mariseanerhawk on Apr 6, 2010 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Because Spring Training doesn't mean a whole lot.
by Jackle Mackle on Apr 6, 2010 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions
To elaborate
Funky ballparks, funky weather, and substandard competition make spring training stats somewhat meaningless.
Along with players trying new things, working out the rust and no need to win.
...and now I'm here
Also a good point.
A hitter might run into a pitcher that’s working on a certain pitch or hitting a location and that’s their primary focus.
Kind of neat they put in pitch f/x in a couple parks down there.
I’ve always wondered if they ever tell a pitcher to throw 20% changeups or something, and forget the results. Kind of cool to be able to get a better look at what they’re doing.
Granted...but when Bradley has proven in 2 straight games he has no patience...maybe Mike deserves a shot...
by mariseanerhawk on Apr 6, 2010 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Two games is a pretty small window to play with.
Over the last few seasons Bradley has shown he’s a significantly better hitter than Sweeney.
Also bear in mind that two games is an extremely small sample size to judge a player in.
Bradley will hit, just give him a chance.
by Jackle Mackle on Apr 6, 2010 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Why so many devils advocates here??? Milton has potential....But so does Mike, I'm just saying, we're carrying 3 DH's use them.
by mariseanerhawk on Apr 6, 2010 11:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Mike Sweeney is old and hasn't been good in several years.
...and now I'm here
Mike has potential to be a replacement level bat, maybe.
Bradley has the potential to be above league average.
by Jackle Mackle on Apr 6, 2010 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I think based on a larger set of data most of us prefer Bradley getting at bats over Sweeney.
When was Sweeney’s last legitimately good season? 2005?
"Devil's advocate" implies that we don't believe what we're saying
but rather that we’re saying it only for the sake or argument. I can’t speak for anyone else but I actually believe that Bradley is a better hitter than Sweeney.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 6, 2010 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Satan's Co-Pilot, maybe?
Carlos Silva is latin for "Let the buyer beware".
by ErictheRed on Apr 6, 2010 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
The thing is, even last year when Bradley had a down year, he was still an above average bat
Before that, he was much much better. Mike Sweeney hasn’t really been an above average bat since 2005.
I carry my corporate credit card everywhere I go just in case of emergency
I have it, so why not use it more?!
by seattlebruin on Apr 6, 2010 11:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Think about this:
That’s only two games of data right there—hardly enough on which to base predictions.
See Bradley's previous 3 seasons then...
by mariseanerhawk on Apr 6, 2010 11:27 PM PDT up reply actions
They're pretty good actually.
Sweeney’s, on the other hand, aren’t.
You mean like the one where he lead the AL in OBP?
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 6, 2010 11:29 PM PDT up reply actions
led*
Sorry, this misspelling gets me every time.
It's a typo.
And not to be a jerk but it’s generally only called for to correct errors such as these when they’re a pattern.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 6, 2010 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Previous three seasons BB%: 12.7, 15.7, 14.0
League average in those three seasons: 8.5, 8.7, 8.9
He ran an above average wOBA last year
In 2008 he was at .423 and 2007 was at .405. I’ll take those years.
I understand I made the TV tonight?
Batted .393/.614/.464 for 2009 Diablos, #5 in OBP for PSSBL Rocky Division.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Apr 6, 2010 11:02 PM PDT reply actions
You are correct sir.
Coming back from, I believe, the 3rd inning, they showed you for about 20 seconds.
by seattle_since_81 on Apr 6, 2010 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Which sign made it on air?
Batted .393/.614/.464 for 2009 Diablos, #5 in OBP for PSSBL Rocky Division.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Apr 7, 2010 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Behind home plate, slightly on the third base side, about 27 rows up.
Batted .393/.614/.464 for 2009 Diablos, #5 in OBP for PSSBL Rocky Division.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Apr 7, 2010 12:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Yup!
It was the “A Great Day Deserves a Great Hat” sign that made it on TV.
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 7, 2010 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Even though we lost
I’m just glad there’s actually something to fucking talk about.
by Mariner John on Apr 6, 2010 11:03 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
I hate fucking Kurt Suzuki
And I swear to fucking god, it’s like three out of every five times I go to a game in Oakland they win with a walk off.
Not like “Celebration” was ever a good song, but I’m sure Kool & The Gang make a killing off the royalties.
Carlos Silvelite
There are a lot of things one could do with this comment
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 6, 2010 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
So who's going to be the first one to do it?
Also a die-hard Hawks fan.
by Hopefulmsfan on Apr 6, 2010 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
An angry Milton Bradley
So much passion.
Carlos Silvelite
by OceanBird on Apr 6, 2010 11:23 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Wow, you get really girly after, huh?
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 7, 2010 2:16 AM PDT up reply actions
If not wanting to cuddle with a man after having gay sex with him means I'm girly, then yes, I'm girly.
But really, I don’t think it means I’m girly. I think it just means I have to be alone with my shame.
by Terminator X on Apr 7, 2010 2:22 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, no, no:
It’s a line from Arrested Development.
I fully support your shame-ridden groping against the cold, hard night after engaging in love, Greek-style. Whatever gets you off, man. Gotta get in where you fit in.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 7, 2010 4:18 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
hyphen!
sorta
Carlos Silva is latin for "Let the buyer beware".
by ErictheRed on Apr 7, 2010 1:21 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Does that mean Coach is taking us out for post game ice cream?
by BrianL on Apr 6, 2010 11:32 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Take us down to the rock quarry maybe
and hide the evidence.
Carlos Silva is latin for "Let the buyer beware".
Ugh, there was supposed to be a link to the faux-future season he wrote a week ago.
Also a die-hard Hawks fan.
by Hopefulmsfan on Apr 6, 2010 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Gotta put some words right before the ending tag in the coding
Otherwise your link has to text to click on. I learned that the hard way a few minutes ago.
by Jackle Mackle on Apr 6, 2010 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Thanks.
Sadly not the first time I’ve been taught this. New season, time to relearn it all again.
Also a die-hard Hawks fan.
by Hopefulmsfan on Apr 6, 2010 11:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I know you guys are licking your wounds, at least hoping that Snell's got it this year.
I’m sorry, but tonight was not testament to that. Our lineup is pathetic, but you guys already knew that. Suzuki may have hit the only home run you’ll see from us this series.
My question is: was Dallas Braden’s performance as impressive as it seemed? He looked focused and dealing. Your lineup looks…pretty formidable, actually. And Braden really seemed to breeze through it, no offense.
I’m not here to rub it in—that is not what I’m doing here at all—I’m just trying to gain some perspective that’s not completely homer-ish. Plus…I kinda like LL, when, you know, you’re not hating on the A’s.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm
Dallas Braden definitely had the M's hitters fooled
primarily with pitches down and away. I’d have to check the stats but he got a lot of swinging strikes going down and away to hitters tonight. Didn’t look that lethal but they had no read on him at all (or on the relievers for that matter)
He's a wily one.
Ol’ Eight Toes.
By the way, I know you guys aren’t in the market to fall in love with A’s players, but if there’s one to fall in love with, it’s Braden.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 7, 2010 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm rather fond of Kurt Suzuki, myself.
But Daric Barton is infinitely infuriating. The guy swings at NOTHING.
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 7, 2010 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions
We call him Staplehead, you know.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 7, 2010 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions
Greetings!
From what I saw, it was a combination of Braden pitching decently and us just having zero patience, which is strange, coming off a night where we took eight walks.
by Jackle Mackle on Apr 7, 2010 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions
From all accounts,
it was a miserable night in Oakland Monday night—cold and kind of damp, I’m sure. I know King Felix has better control than that (Sheets, we’ll see)—they both appeared to struggle with command last night. I’m guessing that beyond opening night jitters, weather was a factor.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 7, 2010 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Tim Tschida (home plate ump) probably had
something to do with the pitchers appearing to be struggling with command. His strike zone was laughably small.
Yeah, he and all of them had an off night last night.
I think we can all agree on that.
sock puppets have never successfully defended castles. -nm
by Leopold Bloom on Apr 7, 2010 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh, definitely.
Hopefully we get a Sheets v. Felix matchup later in the year where they’re both on top of their game. And what RunningFool said.
by Jackle Mackle on Apr 7, 2010 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions
It was pretty great
Honestly, that’s not a bad lineup against a lefty. He threw 66% strikes and his changeup especially was incredible. He was driving hitters into 0-2 counts constantly.
Change was unhittable
Granted, he was facing a fairly low-contact lineup outside of Ichiro/Figgins/Loafie, but bleh. A good LH changeup can make a joke out of a lefty-mashing team sometimes.
by Graham MacAree on Apr 7, 2010 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm looking, but I'm not really seeing it.
But if Chavez grew his mustache out a bit and narrowed his goatee…
My God, it's taken me over an hour of intense reading to catch up on tonight's comments.
LL posters are gonna start dropping dead from exhaustion soon if things don’t ease up.
It's like this every year during the first week or so.
Like Robert said earlier, game threads start to hit their stride around Juneish and they start to slow down a little bit towards the end of April.
FUCK ERIC BYRNES FUCK ERIC BYRNES!
So I missed the middle part of this game, and judging from the Eric Byrnes comments, it's a good thing.
Also, the gamethread kinda sucked. Be better newbie commenters(except the ones that didn’t suck, good job).
FUCK ERIC BYRNES FUCK ERIC BYRNES!
Considering game 2 of 2009 nearly killed me, I am pleased that I missed out on game 2 of 2010.
6am walk offs are not pretty…
Braden's changeup is moyer-esque
Didn’t he throw a screwball ala Norm Charleton, i cant imagine that being good for a pitchers arm long term
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