Handed Park Factors: High Desert

by Matthew on Apr 29, 2010 7:00 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

Yeah, High Desert is a home run haven. We knew that. It's not just the home runs though; or more accurately the friendliness to home runs impacts far more than just the home run factor. This is just theorizing, but seeing a low strikeout and a high walk factor leads me to think that pitchers are working around hitters a lot more in High Desert.

Furthermore, it's not just the home runs, but hits of all kinds are promoted and encouraged from either side of the plate. All of which leads to a massive boon for batters' wOBAs. The average wOBA factor of 114 marks High Desert as the second most hitter-friendly ballpark in my entire 150-park sample. Only Albuquerque in the PCL ranks higher with a combined 119 wOBA factor. That's so high that it would make Giancarlo Alvarado's 2009 season actually impressive if he weren't 31 at the time and now pitching in Japan.

Factor	LH	RH
K	96	96
BB	107	106
HBP	86	92
GB	103	97
FB	98	103
LD	101	111
IF	94	95
1B	102	116
2B	110	117
3B	121	127
HR/BIA	150	148
wOBA	111	117

K, BB, HBP, GB, FB, LD and IF are all factored on a per PA basis since they are all discrete possible results of a PA. 1B, 2B and 3B are factored on a per batted ball basis. HR is factored by balls in the air (i.e. non-ground-ball batted balls). wOBA is based on what the league average line would have looked like given the above factors. A rough guide to 95% confidence intervals for these is given here.

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Ok, 'High Desert' is reminiscent of Roman campaigns in Mesopotamia against the Parthian empire.

Certain parts of Mesopotamia, particularly the north, seemed easier for the Roman legions – from Nisibis to the capital Ctesiphon, the Romans won major battles fairly easily.

In other parts of the empire, the the Romans had a harder time hitting home runs – the southern city of Hatra wasn’t successfully captured by either Trajan OR Septimius Severus.

Hatra = Inland Empire, with a siege factor of about 86; Nisibis = High Desert with a siege factor of 125. Ctesiphon is physically larger, but the weather conditions give it a siege factor of 115 or so, so it’s basically Lancaster.

by marc w on Apr 29, 2010 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Any reason why right-handers should have a markedly higher line drive factor than left-handers?

Other than a statistical anomaly? I was trying to think of a reason why the park environment would impact line drive rates, but I can’t think of any.

There is the possible bias involved with the placement of the stringers, say off to one side of the field, giving them a different view. Still, you would think that would only have an effect if batters tended to hit line drives predominantly to one side of the field, and it seems like line drives are sprayed around almost evenly by both lefties and righties.

by nathaniel dawson on Apr 29, 2010 4:18 PM PDT reply actions

If breaking balls move less you'd see more liners

You’d also see more liners from the right side since more righties see curves/sliders than lefties.

by Graham MacAree on Apr 29, 2010 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Interesting thought

And in a hot, elevated environment such as High Desert, you would expect pitches to break less. Not sure what that might say about West Tennessee, as it had quite a pronounced split in the opposite direction.

And of course, there’s the ever-present specter of random occurence that has it’s hand in the mix, stirring things up for us.

by nathaniel dawson on Apr 29, 2010 7:48 PM PDT reply actions