Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox

by Matthew on Apr 23, 2010 1:00 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

Seattle: 9-7
Chicago: 5-11

	MARINERS	Δ Ms	WHITE SOX	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-6.0 (20th)	4.1	-16.3 (29th)	Seattle
FIELDING (?)	13.9 (2nd)	3.9	-4.4 (26th)	Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)	-4.0 (23rd)	3.9	-4.1 (22nd)	Chicago
BULLPEN (tRA)	-2.7 (24th)	-1.5	10.5 (2nd)	Chicago
OVERALL(RAA)	1.2	10.4	-14.3	SEATTLE

I was torn between sticking with Plus/Minus for the defensive ranking and going back to UZR now that UZRs are up, but then I noticed the huge disparity between the two systems so far this season (yeah, it's early) and with the issues brought up with UZR recently, I decided I was a bit more comfortable with +/-. And then I saw what +/- has listed for the Mariners' defense so far. 23 runs above average? Really? I know we're good and all, but that's a bit too insane. What I've have decided to do then is just average the two and determine ranks by (DRS + UZR) / Innings. Got a better idea?

Boy the White Sox position players have been bad. Shockingly, their best hitter so far has been Andruw Jones. Not shockingly, one of their worst has been Juan Pierre. If not for the decaying corpse of A.J. Pierzynski's power, Pierre would be worst.

Ian Snell's start gets pushed back to face the Royals, which normally would sound like a no-brainer decision. Pitch against the White Sox in the hitting friendly confines of Chicago or face the Royals in Kansas City? You would default to the first choice, but so far in 2010 it's the Royals who have been hitting and the White Sox who can't hit worth a lick. Then again, the Royals have been hitting almost solely because of the production from Scott Podsednik and Jose Guillen so, yeah, I wouldn't be flying to Vegas to bet the over on the Royals runs scored for the season just yet.

Fri Apr 23, 17:10: Ryan Rowland-Smith* vs. Gavin Floyd

Sat Apr 24, 13:10: Doug Fister vs. Freddy Garcia

Sun Apr 25, 11:05: Jason Vargas* vs. John Danks*

Boy I wish we could get to face Jake Peavy, he's flat out awful right now. On the plus side, we don't face both Mark Buerhle and John Danks who have been the lone above average starters for the White Sox so far in 2010. Meanwhile, J.J. Putz has a tRA of 0 with 10 strikeouts, zero walks and zero home runs allowed. He's also lost another mile per hour off his fastball and he's throwing his splitter almost 40% of the time now, about twice as often as he threw it as a Mariner during his heyday. So you know, that's only a good sign for the future.

Chicago's park is a home run haven and we're tossing out three mostly fly ball pitchers so they really need to be on their games and limit walks, keeping runners off base when they can so that the eventual home runs allowed do as little damage as possible.

It would be nice to see Rowland-Smith turn in a good start since he's been scuffling a little this year. He isn't going to get much help from lefties in the lineup though as he's going to face a starting squad throwing eight righties out there. The only lefty is Juan Pierre who RRS could get out if he was throwing with his feet, so it doesn't really matter which side of the plate Pierre stands on. Also, Juan Pierre is DHing. You know how much you guys disagree with some of the stuff Don Wakamatsu does? It could be worse! A lot worse!

Get well soon, Milton Bradley. Get lost, Mike Sweeney.

Ryan Rowland-Smith

Doug Fister

Jason Vargas

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	54%	88	45	65	35
Curve	19%	72	35	75	70
Change	17%	80	50	45	40
Sinker	5%	88	25	50	20
Overall	--	--	40	60	40

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	54%	88	20	55	35
Change	25%	81	40	80	60
Curve	11%	75	65	35	75
Sinker	5%	89	30	40	60
Slider	5%	82	40	80	40
Overall	--	--	35	65	50

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	58%	88	35	30	35
Change	19%	80	80	75	50
Sinker	12%	84	55	35	30
Slider	8%	82	20	25	45
Overall	--	--	45	45	35

Gavin Floyd

Freddy Garcia

John Danks

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	50%	92	45	55	50
Curve	18%	79	70	35	65
Slider	12%	85	75	75	60
Sinker	12%	88	75	65	40
Change	8%	84	55	35	45
Overall	--	--	55	50	50

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	38%	89	20	20	40
Change	31%	81	65	70	50
Slider	23%	81	75	80	70
Overall	--	--	60	50	45

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	57%	91	75	45	45
Change	22%	83	75	80	55
Slider	11%	84	40	65	65
Curve	7%	77	20	40	25
Overall	--	--	60	55	45

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Comments

Chicago's only non-negative is their bullpen? Not a good place to be.

And am I the only one who thinks of Gavin Floyd as the right-handed Joe Saunders?

@ERiC_UW

by lailaihei on Apr 23, 2010 1:05 PM PDT reply actions

You aren't anymore!

I just looked them both up on Fangraphs and their lines are ridiculously similar from batted ball data to BABIP, FIP, xFIP, WAR…

Floyd appears to throw his breaking pitches more at the expense of his change up; his curve and slider combine for 38.1% of his pitches to a mere 6.3% for his change. Saunders, on the other hand, throws his breaking stuff only 16.6% of the time and his change 20.9% of the time. This discrepancy can likely be explained by pitch selection based on handedness of both the pitchers and the batters they face.

Frickin’ weird.

by harkening on Apr 23, 2010 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Floyd is better

He can throw a couple pitches that don’t suck.

by OlSalty on Apr 23, 2010 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions

On the topic of Kansas City's hot streak:

Even Yuni is playing above his head offensively. A career .297 wOBA guy is posting a league average .331 with .309/.333/.436 slash line . Crazy. Both UZR and +/- have him as a -1 defender so far this year, though. Hilarious.

With regards to this series and the ChiSox, how much regression do we expect (over the course of the year) toward being better? I realize going in we have this projection favoring the Mariners, but if the Sox take a step toward their true talent level, are they legitimately contending with us? Blowing us out of the water? Losing, just not as bad?

by harkening on Apr 23, 2010 1:22 PM PDT reply actions

That's why you play the games.

We’ll find out.

by b_rider on Apr 23, 2010 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions

About 3 games worse than us on true talent coming into the season

by Matthew on Apr 23, 2010 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks.

So, we can project our TTL > their TTL. I knew they were playing bad, so regression helps them…but even if they play at that level, they’re still (nominally) worse than us, assuming projections are accurate.*

*This is a huge assumption.

by harkening on Apr 23, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions

I wouldn't think it would be as simple as going just on true talent

since a lot of the M’s projected wins came from Felix and Lee, neither of whom will be pitching in the series.

ROB JOHNSON IS THE WORST PERSON EVER

by I Lick Squirrels on Apr 23, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Point taken.

by harkening on Apr 23, 2010 2:06 PM PDT up reply actions

What are the "issues" UZR?

I guess I’m out of the loop. Is there an article somewhere I should read?

by JeffJ254 on Apr 23, 2010 1:46 PM PDT reply actions

*with UZR

by JeffJ254 on Apr 23, 2010 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

MGL just supplemented the data with park factors.

As a rough example, this increased Jason Bay’s UZR in Fenway from something like -15 to +2. That’s a huge leap, even accounting for the monster. Basically, there’s an issue as to whether the parks are properly evaluated and therefore if the final numbers are reliable.

by harkening on Apr 23, 2010 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions

And Colin Wyers and Mike Fast looked at YTY correlation for UZR amongst players who'd switched teams

and found, essentially, that there wasn’t any.

by marc w on Apr 23, 2010 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Was this addressed by the change in park factors?

or did that study come after the changes were already implemented?

by Matthew on Apr 23, 2010 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions

I believe the study came before

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 23, 2010 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

It did come before

by OlSalty on Apr 24, 2010 3:31 AM PDT up reply actions

I have a feeling that Gutierrez will go on a HR streak

He has been hitting the ball a lot harder the past 2-3 games (as opposed to the groundballs between short and 3rd that his .393 has been built on so far).

With the ChiSox slumping (which usually means regression can come at any time) and the Mariners hitters still below talent level (Figgins, Lopez, and Bradley have been sleeping, with only Gutierrez hot), there are a lot to watch for.

My predictions are RR-S will get the win, Fister will get the loss, Vargas will get the no-decision-win. Figgins will hit a lot of singles, Lopez will hit 2 homeruns, Bradley will hit a lot of doubles, Gutierrez will slump but hit his first homerun.

by Allen Wu on Apr 23, 2010 2:01 PM PDT reply actions

Drayer says it's raining in Chicago.

You're dead to me.

by Goose on Apr 23, 2010 2:02 PM PDT reply actions

Aw crap

by Allen Wu on Apr 23, 2010 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Weather channel forecast has precipitation at a 70-75% chance.

It’s supposed to clear by 6pm, and then thunderstorms over night—how soon the storms move in behind the rain is what will determine whether we get a game or not.

by harkening on Apr 23, 2010 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Fascinating hour by hour chart from TWC:

Link.

Apparently, they’re projecting a 3 hour gap of no rain. That gap? 7pm-10pm. Typical game time. Awesome.

by harkening on Apr 23, 2010 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions

But it would really suck if they're off by half an hour

And it starts pouring rain in the 7th.

by Allen Wu on Apr 23, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions

If we're winning, I'm fine with that.

5+ innings is an official game. Woo playoffs!

by harkening on Apr 23, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions

I just don't like games that end prematurely (unless it's like a blowout)

Other than that, if we win then I have no complaints.

by Allen Wu on Apr 23, 2010 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions

I like winning

by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions

Don't we all

by Allen Wu on Apr 23, 2010 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions

I sure hope this happens

then I won’t have to miss anything to watch the hockey.

by Eyeball Kid on Apr 23, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions

If we have another doubleheader at the Cell this year, I will not be enthused

That is an experience I would most certainly like to never relive.

by cwel87 on Apr 23, 2010 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions

I had a hell of a lot of fun psyching out Paul Konerko at the Felix game. Oh, it was beautiful.

Jigsaw falling into place

by esoteric on Apr 23, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Meanwhile, viewers on basic MLB.tv had to deal with approximately 6 hours of Hawk Harrelson within a ten-hour timeframe

It was a pretty traumatizing experience.

by cwel87 on Apr 23, 2010 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions

I think every day should be a double header.

I don’t really know what to do with a day off and no baseball until the evening.

Where's Perry?

by Bballpitcher2 on Apr 23, 2010 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Also, I enjoy havoc-ridden pitching staffs.

Where's Perry?

by Bballpitcher2 on Apr 23, 2010 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Ahhhh, the Jakubauskas/Felix twin bill.

Now THAT’S pitching.

(Jakubauskas recalled by Pittsburgh today, and recalled by me often).

by marc w on Apr 23, 2010 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Aw man,

They should have put a retractable roof on that sucker. All good stadiums have retractable roofs. They also should have put a Dave Niehaus in that sucker. All bad announcers say “Hegone!” and “You can put it on the boooooaaaaaard…..YES!”

Where's Perry?

by Bballpitcher2 on Apr 23, 2010 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions