9-7, Chart
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 21, 2010 9:30 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Game Recaps
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Biggest Contribution: King Felix, +34.8%
Biggest Suckfest: Chone Figgins, -10.4%
Most Important AB: Wilson double, +27.5%
Most Important Pitch: Wieters single, -9.1%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +34.8%
Total Contribution by Lineup: +14.7%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +0.5%
(What is this chart?)
196 comments
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Me too.
So great.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Wilson yam what he yam?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Apr 21, 2010 9:37 PM PDT reply actions
Great graphic. Give Jack his 15 minutes of offense.
by TrustBaseball on Apr 21, 2010 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
He has a Silver Slugger award, ya know
How did he get it? By hitting doubles like he means it. 41 in 04. He’s never been an on-base guy, but when he’s swinging the bat well, he’s hitting doubles.
by Sukafish on Apr 21, 2010 10:25 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
You know what?
I have no idea. Probably a guy like Jack is going to try for 3 every time he hits the ball to the wall. He had 12 triples and 11 homers that year.
Jack Wilson: hustles like a man, hits like a girl.
by Sukafish on Apr 21, 2010 10:55 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Kind of like WFB!
Except with defense in an entirely different universe.
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
by appleshampoo on Apr 21, 2010 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions
If you draw squiggly lines above Rob Johnson's name it would look like he's falling off the cliff onto the jagged rocks.
by JonBBT on Apr 21, 2010 9:38 PM PDT reply actions 10 recs
Am I the only one feeling really optimistic right now?
While everything is SSS our team is starting to look a little bit. Back end of the rotation starters pitching decently, back of line up stringing together some runs, batters taking pitches, not to mention in a week we have Cliff Lee pitching and a few after that Erik Bedard joins the rotation!
Oh and the rest of the league is looking pretty average.
I’m sure regression to the mean will ruin our fun soon but this week has been exactly what we needed.
Just wish Wak realizes that Sweeney really cannot hit
It’s really sad when we have a chance of putting a competitive offense out there with our great defense and sometimes-sparkling pitching, but some poor lineup choices ruin things
But, but, his spring training batting average! It was shiny!
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions
He was also alright last season
He’s a better hitter than a lot of guys in the lineup. The problem is that all the other guys do other things to make up for the lack of hitting. He’s a one-trick pony, and its a pretty lame trick.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 22, 2010 6:29 AM PDT up reply actions
Some of these pitchers will surely regress, however a lot of our guys still aren't hitting
what you would expect. Figgins is below .200, Bradley is below .200, catchers are both below .200 still (I think), Lopez has an OPS around .490
But Gutierrez is hitting .393
Regression works both ways. However, I do agree that overall we’ll get net gains.
by Allen Wu on Apr 21, 2010 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is the poorest competition that we're going to face and SSS, but still if we can
somehow replace our elder statesmen, we’re going to be okay through the summer and hopefully into October.
by TrustBaseball on Apr 21, 2010 10:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Big fan of Jack Wilson as Popeye.
Does spinach count as a PED?
Milton Bradley apologist
by sanford_and_son on Apr 21, 2010 9:52 PM PDT reply actions
You think those forearms are natural?
by DrunkAmerican on Apr 21, 2010 10:06 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Tumors.
Karma police, arrest this man.
by wyte_lightning on Apr 21, 2010 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
I absolutely love this reference.
"Mayhap a hidden door lurks nigh. Let us search the environs."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 21, 2010 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Wilson getting beaned was incredibly scary
If he gets injured in the bottom of the second what happens? With Bradley out, does Tui go to short and then Griffey to left? The depth issues scare me with Mascot taking up space.
Call up Josh Wilson I guess.
Sure will be nice when Hannahan’s back and the team realises Mike Sweeney is useless.
I'm just glad he's playing at all?
Anybody heard anything about a timetable for his return?
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
Er, my subject line shouldn't have a question mark there.
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
So let's rig a rumor that Sweeney is having an affair with Dayton Moore.
Then Wak will freak out, watch a Kate Hudson flick while eating Ben & Jerry’s, and realize, you know what, I’m better off without that asshole.
Or one can hope, anyway.
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
by Benne on Apr 21, 2010 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I hear Sweeney tested positive for herpes
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 21, 2010 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Speaking of which,
Adam Jones appeared to have a helluva cold sore on his bottom lip.
Or maybe a mole.
Either way, it was unsightly.
Stress can lower the immune system and cause outbreaks.
What could be more stressful than playing for Baltimore? Besides playing for the Astros.
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
Tui to SS, Byrnes to LF would be my move.
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
True
Byrnes hasn’t done much to earn my trust yet though, especially when he has to catch a ball in the sun.
Luckily this was a night game.
He could still lose the ball in his ADHD however.
by JonBBT on Apr 21, 2010 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
It's, unfortunately, the best you could do with the current roster if handed those cards.
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
I think the bigger issue is just the overall loss on Jack Wilson's defense.
His range makes up for Lopie’s and completes the middle infield.
SSS, but...
UZR loves Lopez at third so far. It likes him better than Beltre. My eyes still like Beltre though.
by Sukafish on Apr 21, 2010 10:29 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
It tells you he's made a number of difficult plays
it doesn’t tell you if he can do so consistently.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 22, 2010 6:31 AM PDT up reply actions
It has been 16 games.
16 games of UZR is anti-knowledge.
I love John Carew.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 21, 2010 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Why not?
It’s not really any sort of knowledge but if information is ready why not make it available.
Did I hear someone say completely meaningless direction?
Stats are not a euphemism for tits
by Trenchtown on Apr 21, 2010 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions 13 recs
Who's more frustrating out in left:
Ibanez or Byrnes? Ibanez will never make the highlight reel by diving out from underneath his hat, but I was never really nervous on routine plays with Raul.
by Sukafish on Apr 21, 2010 11:00 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Frustrating?
Eric Byrnes is a godsend
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 21, 2010 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
But what if one of the fans down the left field line had a shiny thing?
What then?
by Sukafish on Apr 21, 2010 11:20 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I love Johjima has back spasming corpse.
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Apr 22, 2010 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think that was right. Ibanez has been gone a while now.
...and now I'm here
His reaction is the best part of this whole thing.
“No, don’t go, ball!” […] “My ball went that way.” =(
by harkening on Apr 21, 2010 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
Ibanez was frustrating
Byrnes is hilarious.
by Brian Floyd on Apr 21, 2010 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions
Career UZR/150 (since 2002), in the outfield:
Ibanez: -2.6
Byrnes: 4.7
Feel free to draw whatever conclusions you wish.
Sad,
considering the implications a legit UZR method would have had on Guti’s performance in CF last year. Either way, if your senile (read: revered) play-by-play buy calls him “death to flying things,” you can get a pretty decent read on his performance.
I don't think we should discount Guti's defensive capabilities because of this
As someone who watches way more baseball than I ever should if I wanted to have a life, he is better than any CF I’ve ever seen. And UZR is not totally worthless, it’s just worth less than maybe we previously thought it was.
I meant purely from a quantitative standpoint...
I may or may not become aroused watching some of the… ahem… balls he runs down out there. He. Is. God.
It's not even a big concern.
Depending on defensive park factors, he might be BETTER than currently rated. Numbers will change, sure, but…
Here you are
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/uzr-updates
MGL made some new adjustments, and a couple players’ numbers really changed. Like Jason Bay.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 22, 2010 12:34 AM PDT up reply actions
And hasn't he only adjusted the 2009 data so far?
If that is the case, knowing we need a 3 year baseline for UZR conclusions…
Not a huge difference there
Ibanez looked bad when he had to go get the ball. Byrnes worries me when he has to stay put and wait for the ball. He reminds me of my cat. Athletic and capable when chasing a flying thing, but really twitchy and prone to biff it without warning.
by Sukafish on Apr 21, 2010 11:26 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
For the sole purpose of making us feel better about Lopez filling Beltre's shoes.
One of which is a glove.
by Sukafish on Apr 21, 2010 10:36 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Seriously, you need 3 years of UZR data to tell you anything
Less than a month is worth nothing. NOTHING. You are better served using visual observation of his skillset right now. Which personally I think has been pretty good, but we don’t know that with any certainty at all. Also, UZR itself has kind of been called into question over park factor adjustments lately that don’t really match up….Supposedly they have been improved, but that is going to take some time to verify.
And think of it this way
Prior to the new, more accurate park factors being factored into UZR, wasn’t Jason Bay like -15 runs defensively last year right? With the new park factors he was +1.9. That is just too big of a difference to think this is reliable data. I don’t want to hate on UZR but that is a huge difference, it makes me think they’ve been doing their park factors totally wrong and we should trust this less than we have been.
I just think it's funny that despite all the cautioning about SSS at Fangraphs.
They still publish UZR on the site after a week of games. And they’ll give you the UZR leaders after a week. This is kind of like telling you who’s leading the HR race after 7 innings.
by Sukafish on Apr 21, 2010 10:43 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Correct me if I'm wrong.
But UZR is collated manually by people watching the games, based on individual plays, right? So a month of UZR gives you less than zero information about a fielder’s TRUE ability over his career/a long time, but isn’t it a fairly accurate measurement of that fielder’s performance over that short time? Lopez’z +3.1 UZR as of now doesn’t mean he’s a true +30.1/150 3B (absurd), but it does mean that based on the opinion of the person rating him, he has currently saved us about 3 runs with his glove.
It is still dangerous because you don’t want to use this to project anything going forward. But when you correlate this with what you see on the field, it makes sense. He’s been making good plays out there.
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
by appleshampoo on Apr 21, 2010 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions
Not necessarily
there’s a great degree of subjectivity that goes into the stat, rendering it all kinds of volatile over small samples.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 21, 2010 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions
If Lopez has a +3.1 UZR over the course of this entire season
I will be happy. I’m mostly glad that he’s not a turd out there. UZR/150 is giving me the giggles, projecting our lovably round third baseman to break all sorts of defensive records.
by Sukafish on Apr 21, 2010 11:13 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
See that's why you shouldn't look at it at all
They shouldn’t even put UZR/150 up there with this small of a sample. Or, as some would argue, UZR at all.
And I agree with your first statement.
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
by appleshampoo on Apr 21, 2010 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions
What's the reason behind that?
More precisely, what is it about UZR that dictates its need for such large samples compared to other advanced metrics?
Players don't get a ton of fielding chances, the correlation on the stat is low, it's dependent on ball location information that isn't exact and needs time to average out
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 21, 2010 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions
AH.
Succinctly put. Thanks. Also clarifies the finer points Sr. Salty makes.
Also
UZR leans heavily on how a ball in play is classified (well hit, not well hit, etc). As people who are familiar with line drive percentage can tell you, these classifications are imperfect.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 21, 2010 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions
What are the chances that hit f/x eventually takes care of these subjective classifications?
Stats are not a euphemism for tits
Subject Line
Probably doesn’t answer this question completely but link
Stats are not a euphemism for tits
I would say pretty high, having seen the demo of hit f/x.
It looks like a pretty good tool, with the speed of the ball off the bat, angle (?) and all that. This would be a good way to see the difference between line drives and fly balls in numbers, as opposed to the scorer’s eyes.
I certainly hope so
I am thoroughly amazed with how accurate the algorithm for classifying matches up with scouting reports on repertoire. Hopefully a batted ball algorithm could be just as accurate.
Stats are not a euphemism for tits
Hit f/x stands a chance of fixing everything
However, Hit f/x stands a chance of never being released to the public.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 21, 2010 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmmm....
Maybe at some point in my career I can get the Freedom of Information Act extended to entities granted anti-trust exemptions
Stats are not a euphemism for tits
When you start funding Pitch f/x with your tax dollars there might be a case to be made
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 22, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd be ok with that
I’m sure some of my tax dollars go to things I care considerably less about then pitch f/x
Stats are not a euphemism for tits
I would say you need 3 yrs of UZR data to try to use it to try to use it to "know" a player's true talent
But you can definitely use it when there is less than 3 years of data. Any quantity of UZR data contains some amount of useful information otherwise gathering more UZR data would not improve your knowledge. Its noisy but there is something there on average.
With Lopez, lets say we didn’t know anything about his past defense or had ever watched him. All we have is that he has played 15 games and is on pace for +30 UZR/150. If we do a really ghetto regression to the mean we take his 15 games of for a total of +3 runs and 435 games of average UZR (says we need three years of data). This tells us that we have him at +1 UZR/150 as our true talent projection. Before the last 15 games we had him at +0 UZR/150. This kind of gives you an idea of about how much impact 15 games has on our ability to understand a player’s talent level. 15 games of UZR is not completely worthless if its all you have but its pretty close.
Since we have more knowledge than UZR (aka we have watched the games) we can say he seems like a reasonably decent fielder at this point. A little slow and bumbling and doesn’t make the greatest throws but has all the skills and has shown enough athleticism to be a slightly above average fielder.
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 22, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes!
Just as the biggest contribution can be negative.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 21, 2010 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions
The fact that Mike Sweeney did not get the suckfest makes me wonder about this metric.
He should get biggest suckfest even if he doesn’t play.
by moyerLIVES on Apr 21, 2010 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
WPA also counts their contribution at the time they contribute toward the game.
I love the Will Venable example: he went 3-6 or 5 with a triple and various other hits but had a huge negative WPA for the game because he made outs in very big situation with the game tied.
You got slurved!
Yeah, I've seen stuff like that on a couple of occasions.
Same thing with pitchers, sometimes the pitchers that gives up 5 or 6 runs has a better WPA than the one that gave 3 because of the timing of the runs. I imagine it has to be very hard for the biggest negative WPA to be positive, every hitter would have to have 2 or 3 or hits or one big hit with the bases loaded.
Felix!
Its hard to imagine him losing a start the way hes pitching…but it probably has to happen…eventually…
All hail the king.
My Mariners blog SodoMojo, My Twitter Feed
by Griffin Cooper on Apr 21, 2010 10:14 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Quality Starts.
Can anyone find the MLB record for consecutive quality starts by a pitcher? Felix is at 17.
Josh Johnson had at least 17 at one point.
That’s the best I could Google-find.
by RunningFool on Apr 21, 2010 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Quality starts are kinda meh, but given that Felix has like 17 in a row, and the next best guy
is like at eight or nine, it’s pretty cool
He can't be anywhere close to a record.
As a guess, crunch the numbers on Pedro for the late 90’s and early naughts.
And that's just a modern name.
Going back I’m sure there have to be many ahead of him.
And yes, “quality starts” are pretty much as crap as a hold.
Look's like the record's 26
by Bob Gibson. Started on 9-12-67 and lasted to 7-30-68. (Check the ERA during that span. Whoa.) Felix’s run makes him 22nd.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/shareit/78ckw
(I hope you guys are glad for this; it cost me two bucks.)
by craig3410 on Apr 21, 2010 11:16 PM PDT up reply actions 9 recs
Doesn't explain Maddux, though.
3 streaks in the top-10.
That's a large part of it, but not all...
He was very good, but nowhere near the talent of many guys not on the list. He always got the benefit of the doubt on calls, and he was just solid and consistent.
It wouldn’t be hard to name 5 better pitchers who aren’t even on the list.
I didn't say he was a phenom.
In terms of absolute “stuff”, Felix is undoubtedly better than Maddux. But that sort of sustained consistency goes a long way.
Oh, certainly.
I think that’s more of a failing of the stat than anything else.
The fact that Felix is up so high is great. The big thing I notice is a lack of power pitchers on that list…Ryan not on it once, for instance.
I'm not sure how much that change increased the run scoring environment.
Just mentioned it as something to keep in mind. Game is pretty fluid, I used to have a link to a time line of all the rule changes in baseball. Night games is another thing I’d like to read about, from what I’ve read the lights were pretty crappy early on. Be interesting to know if that affected the defense or offense.
Amazingly,
There is only a two game span between two of his long streaks. If it were not for his April 20th start giving up 4 runs in 8 innings and April 26th start giving up 6 runs in 5 innings, Maddux would have had a consecutive string of 42 quality starts in a row,
Stats are not a euphemism for tits
Bob Gibson has the record with 26
Gibson tossed 19 CG’s and posted a 0.90 ERA during that stretch as well. Felix’s streak is tied for the 17th longest.
by Mark Sandritter on Apr 21, 2010 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Nah, I can see it
More than the alleged Fister-Snell connection
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
by appleshampoo on Apr 21, 2010 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I love that even average Felix os better than 95% of starters.
That game was awesome. Shame on the 30K people dressed as empty seats.
I enjoy watching Sweeney work the pitch count
and wish Wak would bat Sweeney fourth and Byrnes fifth- I’d love to see flyouts followed by popups with Ichiro, Figgins and Guti on base, peppered with the occasional double play.
Sweeney knows he has little left, he tries to jump on those first pitch fastballs
He usually fails, and the result is a horrid at-bat.
There'd be more value in just going up there...
…and working the count as effectively as possible, if he has to be in the lineup at all (cough, Wak, cough).
FIRST. PLACE.
I HATE EVERYONE NEW EXCEPT THE PEOPLE I KNOW AND CAMERON MCCRACKEN. ;)
God damn phone...
*self-loathing new… b
by THolt on Apr 22, 2010 12:05 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
This could be a very good year!
However, we somehow need to rid ourselves of Jr. and Sweeney and I think we’re looking at October baseball. (How we do that is left for people better than myself). Lee still hasn’t pitched a single game, but CLIFF LEE! Bedard hasn’t pitched at all, but he may! We are ok at catcher, unless RJ decides he really is going to take Felix out. JL will be ok at 3b and if Bradley doesn’t have to start at LF we will more than survive. We will be alive in October. There are so many teams that can’t say that tonight. Go Mariners.
If we dump Sweeney, we can bring up Saunders or Langerhans.
Milton Bradley can DH, and we’ll still have a backup outfielder in Byrnes. We thus keep Griffey. We do not need to rid ourselves of both, just one.
Or we can also go back to an 11 man pitching staff
Which probably will happen. That said, I don’t like having Sweeney around either way.
by Brian Floyd on Apr 22, 2010 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Can we go to an 11-man staff AND dump Sweeney?
Then we can call up Hannahan, too. Hannahan=IF, Saunders=LF, Langerhans/Byrnes=OF, Tui=Util, Bradley=DH, Griffey=PH.
Oh please God yes.
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