8-7, Chart
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 20, 2010 9:41 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Game Recaps
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Biggest Contribution: Jason Vargas, +38.4%
Biggest Suckfest: Jose Lopez, -13.8%
Most Important AB: Bradley single, +10.1%
Most Important Pitch: Reimold doubles, -11.3%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +52.7%
Total Contribution by Lineup: -10.8%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +8.1%
(What is this chart?)
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Well that's got to be one of the most linear WE charts I've ever seen.
I wonder what the r squared value would be on a straight line spanning the game from 0.5 WE to 1 WE. I guess one benefit of playing the Orioles is that your odds of winning can increase predictably as a function of game duration.
Dead birds that have their landing gear up always weird me out
I want to poop at your house - Thingray
That bird would have been better of
if it had stayed away from Milton Bradley.
Carlos Silva is latin for "Let the buyer beware".
Mother Nature's lawn darts...
Judging by the backdrop, she missed.
It feels weird to stare at it
but it looks like a toy because of that.
Batted .393/.614/.464 for 2009 Diablos, #5 in OBP for PSSBL Rocky Division.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Apr 20, 2010 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Sometimes I have to be reminded that orioles are actual birds with the same color scheme as the baseball team
That one looks like it was taken right off the hat and killed.
by Gihyou on Apr 20, 2010 9:48 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
One of the most boring games I recall. Glad we avoiding losing.
Jose Lopez needs a day off
Good chance to get Tui some at bats
and shuffle the order. Get Kotchman, Bradley futher up. Do it Wak!
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
by appleshampoo on Apr 20, 2010 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I didn't want to put up a giant picture of Jason the lesbian Vargas
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 20, 2010 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 8 recs
Is that a running joke, or you just came up with that?
Either way, it’s really on point
by Rudy4three on Apr 20, 2010 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Vargas has been previously identified as looking kinda lesbianic
by lemonverbena on Apr 20, 2010 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Vargas is the ugliest lesbian I've ever seen.
He’s mafia, from Italy, not lesbian from Lesbos.
by TrustBaseball on Apr 20, 2010 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree, Fogel had absolutely no part in this
by OlSalty on Apr 20, 2010 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It's really surprising it went this long without getting noticed
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 20, 2010 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions
To me he looks like the most annoying kid in 3rd grade
…or yeah…a giant lesbian.
I'm just kidding baby
You can be whatever you like
I think I'm going to make one of those half-one player half-another player pictures
and make it half-Vargas half-Cha Seung Baek. I expect that you guys will want to see it.
A Mariners fan in Seattle
You must never repeat that
Some things must be preserved as they were and never touched again for posterity.
This makes me a sad panda.
A Mariners fan in Seattle
by Coach Owens on Apr 20, 2010 10:12 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Weird that a half-Vargas, half-Cha Seung Baek photo
would come out like this.
Carlos Silva is latin for "Let the buyer beware".
by ErictheRed on Apr 20, 2010 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Now I see it.
Carlos Silva is latin for "Let the buyer beware".
by ErictheRed on Apr 20, 2010 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Is it possible to make a running average of the total contribution from pitchers,
lineup and opposition. Or maybe a running sum, it would be interesting to actually see how much of our wins is actually coming from the mariners and not us getting lucky. It seems that we have been getting lucky a lot.
Since Vargas is clearly the reincarnation of Al Capone, is it too close to chat speak to say Capowned?
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
There is a sidebar gif of PotatOWNED.
You might want to make some sort of image to go along with Capowned.
The Internet already provides.
Which is good, because my photoshop skills are weak sauce. If they were up to snuff, I’d try to either put Vargas’ face on that or maybe put a fedora and cigar on a Vargas picture.
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
I for one would love to see Vargas with a fedora and a cigar.
Also a die-hard Hawks fan.
by Hopefulmsfan on Apr 21, 2010 12:19 AM PDT up reply actions
I could never use that picture
He looks far too much like Jay Mariotti.
So with Bradley sort of re-hurting himself again today
Do you ever get tired of being right all the time?
I want to brand those stats into the foreheads of 85% of the posters on Baker's blog.
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
I think Wak's lineup card needs some help.
by TrustBaseball on Apr 20, 2010 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions
I think Wak's game management needs some help.
We get it; he’s great with the players, a real “people person” in the clubhouse. But man, between the bullpen, attaching Sweeney to the opening day roster and that lineup…it’s just not pretty. I don’t dislike Wak. He’s not terrible. He’s just not necessarily “good” either.
We don't know that Sweeney was his decision.
Z could have been involved in that one.
I'd say his bullpen usage has been adequate lately.
It seems like he, like the players, needs a week or so to get back into the whole game-management thing.
Also a die-hard Hawks fan.
by Hopefulmsfan on Apr 20, 2010 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow, Lopez.
That OPS of .530 and -0.2 WAR this year are really …. are really …. ugh.
Carlos Silva is latin for "Let the buyer beware".
Neither are
Bradley’s, Wilson’s, Moore’s, or Griffey’s negative WAR. He’ll be fine… hopefully
Stats are not a euphemism for tits
You're not including defense
He’s positive when you add in DRS (which you might want to add in until UZR comes online).
I believe Lopi's in the lead for biggest season suckfest?
by DrunkAmerican on Apr 20, 2010 10:09 PM PDT reply actions
He has looked like an above-average 3B so far
Which is both frightening and confusing but cool.
He’ll hit eventually. Maybe we are too hard on him.
That barehanded play in the third (?) was nice to see.
He’s been short hopping a lot of throws but hey, it’s a new angle, distance and all.
Yeah I was more worried about his ability to have enough range and quickness to get balls
and he’s definitely I think shown this so far. It also looks like he has a strong enough arm. The accuracy I think will probably come with time.
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 20, 2010 10:35 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm going to agree here, at least for now.
He got an error on a bad throw to first that was a bad throw to first. It reminded me of some bad throws last year (almost lazy throws). But I willing to give him the benefit of the doubt through April. I don’t want to see that crap in May.
by TrustBaseball on Apr 20, 2010 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I wasn't too worried about that throw
He stood a good chance of not even getting to that ball, and it would have been a single anyway. Better a short hop than air mailing it I guess.
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
by appleshampoo on Apr 20, 2010 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Do any of the defensive metrics track difficult stops, like that one by Kotchman?
Or the one a bit later, where Lopez handcuffed him? That was tough, but Kotch keeping his head down on it and slowing it down, keeping the runner at first. I wonder how those get scored
Fangraphs keeps track of 'scoops'
but that’s the closest we get, to the best of my knowledge.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 21, 2010 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions
So far this year, he leads MLB in Defensive Runs Saved
According to Fangraphs DRS (based on +/- methodology).
He’s at 6 runs saved, tops of any position player in MLB. Next best is +4.
I think it's settled, Lopez is close to being in the lead.
Perhaps we’ll have to look at our DH’s and a certain catcher. In any case, I don’t believe he’s in the right place in the line-up.
by TrustBaseball on Apr 20, 2010 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Citation? Based on Fangraphs, he's at -0.46 before today's game.
Which would still make him an above average player when considering his defensive position and runs saved this year.
Same stuff you're using sir
WPA != WAR. WPA doesn’t account for defense, it credits the pitcher instead. .5 WPA is a win, adding Lopez’s performance last night he’s down to -.61 WPA which is minus ~1.1 wins. WPA is more a fun stat rather than a good measure of overall value, it’s nice because it captures leverage for hitting and “pitching,” but woefully lacking because it doesn’t include defense and because results based analysis is not a particularly good way of measuring ability or value. Nevertheless, WPA still measures Lopez as being down more than a win
Stats are not a euphemism for tits
WPA = offensive contribution to the game state
You don’t double it to get to their wins contributed from offense.
For example, look at the 2009 Win Probability leaderboard on Fangraphs. The correlation between WPA and REW (Wins Above Average based on the 24 Base/Out States) is .899541. We wouldn’t double his REW to find wins contributed, so why would we double WPA?
To your point, WPA is laking the adjustments for a great many things that affect the final outcome of the game.
But you’re still incorrect in saying that “WPA still measures Lopez as being down more than a win.” Based on Fangraphs, he is currently at 0.61 WPA for the year, that’s less than a win. He’s also at 6 runs saved defensively based on +/ or plus 3.1 runs based on UZR. Once you factor in the positional adjustment, he’s been basically league average so far this year.
Arthropods?
Also a die-hard Hawks fan.
by Hopefulmsfan on Apr 21, 2010 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions
In the bottom of the 8th Buhner went into a little discussion
about how he went about hitting. He said he sat on a lot of pitches and watched for a lot of fastballs. Reminded me of a discussion Morgan Ensberg just had with some saber guy (don’t remember where I read this). Just thought it was interesting.
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 20, 2010 11:52 PM PDT reply actions
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