On The Mariners' Aggressive Baserunning
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 19, 2010 1:33 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Stats
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PrintHere's your link to Dave's post. I don't want to steal his thunder, so go read over there. Bottom line: while you may have noticed that the Mariners have been running around like crazy people, and that running around like crazy people can be fun, they've run themselves into too many outs, and the mistakes need to stop.
Baseball Prospectus puts the M's at -1.1 runs on the bases so far, although I don't know if they include everything. Just for fun, the following is a list of all our outs on the basepaths so far this season, along with the corresponding average run expectancy impact:
- 4/5: Milton Bradley caught stealing second with one out, Casey Kotchman at third, and Griffey at the plate. -0.57 runs
- 4/5: Ichiro caught stealing third with none out, Chone Figgins at first, and Kotchman at the plate. -1.07 runs
- 4/6: Ichiro picked off with none out and Figgins at the plate. -0.62 runs
- 4/8: Figgins thrown out trying to advance to second with two outs and Bradley due up. -0.23 runs
- 4/9: Ichiro caught stealing second with one out and Kotchman at the plate. -0.41 runs
- 4/10: Franklin Gutierrez thrown out at home on a Jose Lopez single with one out and Bradley due up. -0.59 runs
- 4/11: Figgins caught stealing second with one out and Kotchman at the plate. -0.41 runs
- 4/11: Kotchman thrown out at home on a Gutierrez single with two out and Griffey due up. -0.48 runs
- 4/13: Figgins thrown out at third with one out and Gutierrez at the plate. -0.55 runs
- 4/14: Lopez thrown out at third on a fielder's choice with none out and Bradley running. -0.14 runs
- 4/14: Bradley thrown out at home with two out, Eric Byrnes on second, Adam Moore on first, and Jack Wilson due up. -0.75 runs
- 4/17: Wilson caught stealing second with two out and Ichiro at the plate. -0.23 runs
- 4/17: Kotchman thrown out stretching a double with none out and Moore due up. -0.85 runs
- 4/18: Figgins caught stealing second with two out and Lopez at the plate. -0.23 runs
- 4/18: Byrnes thrown out at home with one out, Kotchman on first, and Moore due up (Kotchman's fault). -0.70 runs
- 4/18: Ichiro doubled up at first with none out and Gutierrez due up. -0.41 runs
That's not the best way to look at this, because it ignores the good things the M's have done on the bases, and the run expectancy impact ignores the greater context of the out. However, we're talking 16 baserunning outs in 13 games played, with a total RE impact of -8.24 runs. Do you think baserunning successes have gained us +8.24 runs? I don't.
Aggressive baserunning is not a problem on its own, and you can't expect any team to be perfect. Even the best teams will get nailed from time to time. But aggressive baserunning teams have to be smart baserunning teams if they want to do more than just make games weird, and through the first two weeks of the season, the M's haven't been very smart. Somebody please remind Casey Kotchman that he's one slow son of a bitch.
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Hacksaw Jim Duggan comin' from the top rope on Razor Ramon!
by waldo rojas on Apr 19, 2010 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for running this up. I've had a running debate with some idiot about whether or not all of the aggressiveness has been good or bad.
I’m hoping that this is the 2010 version of the Buntathon that took place during the first two months last season. Wak tries something for a while, discovers one way or another that it’s not good, and scales back the degree of the insanity. I bet Byrnes will have a lot of the front page on his nose.
Worth noting that if you use Dave's quoted figure of 31 extra bases taken
and the generally applied benefit of an extra base (.25 of a run), you get 7.75 runs which comes shockingly close to evening out the mistakes.
They’ve been too aggressive for my tastes, but I would have figured that the negative run impact was more damaging so far.
Me too
I don’t feel like doing another manual tally, so: the Mariners haven’t been burned too badly by their baserunning so far, but they still have to be smarter.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 19, 2010 1:55 PM PDT up reply actions
We can't afford to break even
I think Dave admits in his post that we’re about breaking even. But, the point seems to be that we want aggressive base running to be a positive and that’s a really easy thing to accomplish: be aggressive with the fast people and stop being stupid with the slow people.
I’d say the people who are upset are upset not because this is a huge impact, but because it’s an easy fix.
This also doesn’t consider the increased injury risk when you’re running all over the place.
by Snuffleupagus on Apr 19, 2010 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd rather not be running with Kotchman and Wilson either
But half the blogosphere is up in arms about something that has been somewhere between a tiny negative and a very small negative so far.
by Graham MacAree on Apr 19, 2010 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Personally
What makes me upset is that there’s no reason for Kotchman to get thrown out twice in a few days. Aggressive baserunning will succeed and it will fail, and that’s okay, but the risk/reward with a guy like Kotchman is such that he shouldn’t even be trying.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 19, 2010 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm annoyed at Kotchman too
It’s hardly a team-wide crisis though
by Graham MacAree on Apr 19, 2010 2:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Shouldn't it be a major positive, though?
With Figgins and Ichiro we’re supposed to be generating runs on the basepaths, not losing them or breaking even.
Maybe not major positive, since baserunning can only add so much
But, yeah, this is not a team that wants to break even.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 19, 2010 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
No mistakes in our favor?
Bradley’s last stolen base sure looked like he was out on replay. Are umpire mistakes on baserunners usually against the runner? I could see that happening if umpires usually default to when the ball arrives and can’t see when tags are missed.
by Snuffleupagus on Apr 19, 2010 2:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Mostly, yes
A lot of times blocked vision of the umpire results in the call being out. At least in my experience. I think it has something to do with assumptions. The umpires “assume” that the fielder makes the routine tag, when sometimes upon replay we see that he missed by an inch.
I don't know where the baserunning runs added stats are but...
I think if Wak just told all the people that are above average baserunners that they have free reign on the basepaths and all the negative guys to play it safe, wouldn’t that fix much of the problems?
I see no problem with letting Ichiro, Figgins, etc run wild, but yeah Kotchman is not one of those guys and he’s been pretending he is.
This is one example of where I think the FO should step in and tell the manager what he should/shouldn't do.
I’m ok with managers managing, but I think if a team’s FO can step in and say “here are some guidelines” then there could be a half win or a win added in a season.
Nice recap of the baserunning gaffes.
While I haven’t seen many of these, I have seen a few, and it seems as though the M’s are not only being a tad overly aggressive, but they’ve been the victim of poor calls. I am specifically recalling Ichiro’s third base steal where he protested (to no avail, of course). Have there been more? I would love to know if the M’s have had any calls (I can think of one) that have gone there way. Is it pretty much even? Anyone keeping track of that?
Secondly – How much responsibility is to be placed upon the 3rd base coach? Is he not yelling loud enough? Is he making the call too late? Is he making the wrong call? When will his performance be brought into question, if at all?
Thanks
Gritty... that's the term I think of when I see Jack Wilson play. Gritty
by A Steamy Day in Cleveland on Apr 19, 2010 1:58 PM PDT reply actions
Dave says 15 outs, you say 16
Any idea which one you’re counting and he’s not?
I think
Ichiro, Figgins, Gutierrez, and Byrnes should always get the green light.
Bradley and Wilson should get the yellow light (run when you think you can make it)
The rest of the team should get the red (run only when it’s a passed ball or some sort of error big enough to allow the pursuit of the extra base)
And the umps have called a few of Ichiro/Figgins’ stolen bases outs. Wish they’d install instant replay review. Balls/strikes machine is not necessary, just the review.
The only two that should always have a green light are Ichiro and Figgins
Guti isn’t as fast as you apparently think he is, and Byrnes is not someone I’d give full control to anything on this planet.
Guti and Byrnes both have good speed.
Of course Guti isn’t as fast as Ichiro or Figgins, but he gets good jumps, and his SB success rate is pretty high.
Byrnes is fast. And he’s entertaining. Why not?
Byrnes was amazing in 2006 and '07
But I’d be concerned with letting him run free now, given his injury history and age.
Guti ran 21 times last year to a 76% clip (16 steals), which is just above the range you want to be as a base stealer (the line is 70%). That’s essentially the definition of a yellow light, and it worked well enough.
I think Byrnes looks healthy
And yeah Guti’s a bit borderline. What’s in the middle of green and yellow?
His SB rate is high because he is picky, like Triunfel at High Desert in 2008
that doesn’t mean he should get a green light. It means he’s a good base stealer and should go when the opportunity presents itself
by seattlebruin on Apr 19, 2010 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Green light... letting him pick his spots instead of waiting for a sign
And yeah my definition for yellow light is off. It should be “wait for the run sign”
What you're listing for Bradley and Wilson is the very definition of a green light
by seattlebruin on Apr 19, 2010 2:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Sorry, yeah I didn't get the definition right
Green light: Go whenever you think you can
Yellow light: Wait for the run sign
Red light: Cling onto your base unless there’s a big error.
That makes more sense
I don’t know that I’d give Guti and Byrnes a green light until they show some sustained ability to get good jumps, but w/e.
Kotchman's name shows up in seven of these, therefore it is all his fault
Seriously though, I’d like to think that the jaw droppingly stupid stuff like Kotchman trying for third or Lopez getting caught off of it and so on will stop soon enough. Those are not major league mistakes and you don’t see them much. I’d also like to think that blown calls are a neutral force because they break both ways (remember Wilie’s hustle quantified? I feel like we still owe for that favor). So, I guess my point is that the aggressiveness should end up being in our favor in the long run, since we’re breaking even at this point.
All the same, knowing how the team has struggled to score runs in the opening stretch, I cringe reading down this list.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 19, 2010 2:29 PM PDT reply actions
Aggressive and stupid tread a rather fine line that we are currently straddling
Not all aggressiveness is good.
Agressive good, Bad baserunning bad
Somebody show Wak the above and he’ll understand what is expected of him.
by Great Sergios Ghost on Apr 21, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
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