Hey everyone! Devoted reader but first time fan poster. Not enough of us non/seldom commenting readers say it, but your community has changed the way I thought about the game I love to play and coach. Thank you.
After a discussion on bunting round the old office cooler (by office cooler I mean rusty sink), I began to wonder about bunting as it relates to win expectancy. I have played a lot of baseball, and coached at the high school level and was never as bunt happy as many of my counterparts. I always felt that in may cases, the sacrifice of an out is not worth the expected reward that accompanies the slight increase in the expectancy that the run crosses the plate. In certain situations (depending on pitcher, hitter, inning) I would put on the bunt sign. As a player, I always hated it. When I watch the mariners, I hate Rob Johnson. Sorry Rob, sure you are a nice guy.
So here is where I ask for assistance. I scoured the internet for information on bunting (also marking the first time I used bing for anything - so if you googled something does that mean you binged something?) I realized that I had a community of intelligent people that knew more about the subject than I would ever know at my fingertips. I know there are so many variables to the answer to my questions, but I will post them anyway:
1) Does win expectancy go up with the sacrifice of an out? If so, when (one runners on, two runners on, bases full, one out, two out)
2) At what point is a sacrifice better than a hitters wOBA? In other words, when is the known commodity of a sacrifice more valuable then the expected result of hitter based on statistics?
3) Does the value of a bunt change given the relative time it happens in a game (early innings vs. late innings - I assume 90 ft is more important in the later innings).
Any assistance to these answers are appreciated. Again, thank you all for the reception I have earned as a casual poster and in advance for your comments on my fanpost.
"The only person who should not be sacrifice bunting is Albert Pujols" - some "small ball " guy I work with. By small ball, I mean the baseball theory - I don't really know about his actual balls.