A Quick Note On Ben Sheets

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 16, 2010 12:12 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

Generally speaking, you can't tell a whole lot about a hitter through the first week and a half of the season, but sometimes you can tell a whole lot about a pitcher. Ben Sheets may be one such arm. Sheets has recorded three starts this year: April 5th, April 10th, and April 15th. Over those three starts (against us, LAnaheim, and Baltimore), he's walked ten and struck out eight in 17 innings. That's bad, and completely unlike the Ben Sheets we knew before.

But that's a small sample size of data. What if we look at something that might be a little more meaningful?

2008: 92.8mph average fastball
2010: 90.9mph

2008: 80.1mph average curve
2010: 77.8

Sheets has been topping out around 93 so far with his heater, well below the 95-96 he used to reach and more in line with his previous average. While we expect pitchers to be a little below 100% this early in the year - especially pitchers who didn't throw at all the year before - Sheets hasn't shown any improvement over his starts, actually seeing his average drop a little bit.

That's cause for some concern, and it has undoubtedly contributed to Sheets being so thoroughly hittable. Throw in the wildness and you've got yourself some real question marks. I know there were many fans - myself included - who wanted to see the M's get involved with Sheets and Rich Harden over the winter, but given their price tags and the fact that both are missing some of their previous effectiveness and velocity (by the way, Harden's down from 92.2 to 90.6), one has to wonder if the front office made the right call after all. While it's still very, very early, and there is plenty of time for things to change course, neither new arm has impressed.

(To complete the divisional rivals thing, Scott Kazmir sucks, but he's lower-profile.)

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I guess Jack and co. knew something we didn't.

(Or just, luckily, got outbid)

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Apr 16, 2010 12:19 PM PDT reply actions

Meanwhile, Erik Bedard came really, really cheap.

And doesn’t cost a whole heck of a lot until he actually performs.

by ThundaPC on Apr 16, 2010 12:27 PM PDT reply actions

This kind of makes me happy but also kind of makes me sad.

by waldo rojas on Apr 16, 2010 12:41 PM PDT reply actions

I still feel like you have to give Ben Sheets a little of a break for a month or two because he hasn't pitched in a long time.

Looking at his pitches he is also getting more horizontal movement and a little more vertical drop. I’m not sure if I believe these differences are big enough to think he is a drastically different pitcher. Instead I think his lack of success might have more to do with his command and control and it might take a little while for the rust to get worked out.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 16, 2010 12:43 PM PDT reply actions

I'm not sure, but I wonder if the added movement isn't just the result of lower velocity

I’m not declaring him a bust, by any means. The point of this post is simply that there’s reason for some people to be concerned.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 16, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah I'm not sure

Maybe he knows he can’t throw as fast so he tries to increase the movement he is getting. Slower pitches like you said also would move more because there is more time for them to move since it takes more time to reach the plate.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 16, 2010 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions

I still have to think that control is hurting him alot right now.

Normal zone% for him looks to be around 55% but this year he is all the way down to 47% although his first strike % is as good as it always was. This is confusing to me.

He also has very high out of zone contact although I’m not sure if this is a good thing (weak contact) or bad thing (low strikeouts). His in zone contact is the same it always is.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 16, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions