Series Preview: Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners

by Matthew on Apr 12, 2010 8:39 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

Seattle: 2-5
Oakland: 5-2

	MARINERS	Δ Ms	ATHLETICS	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-10.5 (28th)	-3.3	5.9 (8th)	Oakland
FIELDING (+/-)	6.0 (3rd)	6.0	3.0 (10th)	Seattle
ROTATION (tRA)	-7.0 (25th)	-4.0	5.1 (7th)	Oakland
BULLPEN (tRA)	0.5 (14th)	0.4	0.7 (12th)	Oakland
OVERALL(RAA)	-11.0	-0.9	14.7	OAKLAND

Well, that could have gone better again. While this is a troubling beginning to the season, there remains a long journey left to go. I don't want to say the real test begins now, but coming home hopefully gets the team out of its rut. This roster was assembled with Safeco Field in mind and as much as the lack of hitting has been a focus early on, the rotation has struggled almost as much. It's too early to make hay out of anything, especially pitching just seven turns in, but it gives us another reminder that the team we've seen so far is not the projected team from February. They're still sorting through the early roster fluctuations and almost everyone is in a slump. Patience.

UZRs are not out yet but thanks to Supreme Lord David Appleman implementing the Fielding Bible stats on FanGraphs, I am able to throw in the +/- runs above average (DRS) in the meantime. Unsurprisingly, the Mariners are already hovering near the top the league.

Mon Apr 12, 15:40: Ryan Rowland-Smith* vs. Justin Duchscherer

Tue Apr 13, 19:10: Doug Fister vs. Brett Anderson*

Wed Apr 14, 19:10: Jason Vargas* vs. Gio Gonzalez*

What's there to say? We just played these guys and saw two of these three starters. Gio Gonzalez is the new one and what he lacks in command (a lot), he tries to make up for with the ground balls that he gets from his curve ball. It was actually one of the best pitches in all of baseball last year at generating ground balls.

The Athletics do not have a potent offense. It's probably not as bad as ours, but it's still not likely to be above average at the end of the season. Safeco Field is home for us and the weather's supposed to be cool. It would be a great time to get some solid starts out of the back of our rotation.

Ryan Rowland-Smith

Doug Fister

Jason Vargas

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	58%	88	45	65	35
Curve	20%	72	40	75	70
Change	16%	80	55	45	40
Overall	--	--	40	60	45

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	49%	88	25	45	25
Change	28%	81	40	80	60
Curve	11%	75	65	30	80
Slider	6%	82	30	80	25
Sinker	6%	89	35	45	60
Overall	--	--	35	60	45

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	62%	88	35	30	40
Change	18%	80	80	75	35
Sinker	9%	83	75	40	40
Slider	8%	82	20	20	35
Overall	--	--	45	45	35

Justin Duchscherer

Brett Anderson

Gio Gonzalez

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	46%	85	45	40	45
Slider	27%	81	20	80	50
Curve	25%	70	70	60	60
Overall	--	--	45	65	50

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	47%	93	40	40	50
Curve	30%	82	65	70	80
Slider	9%	84	40	65	80
Sinker	7%	90	30	70	50
Change	6%	84	20	55	55
Overall	--	--	45	55	70

Pitch	%	Sp	K	BB	GB
Fastball	62%	91	65	45	35
Curve	28%	78	80	30	80
Change	7%	83	30	20	65
Overall	--	--	55	35	50

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Comments

RAAANNNNNDYYYYY

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 12, 2010 9:20 AM PDT reply actions

Any chance he warms up and says screw it, I'm starting tonight?

Still glad I got to his start last year.

by CMC_Stags on Apr 12, 2010 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions

If he takes over for Fister, I can't say I'd be too sad

by seattlebruin on Apr 12, 2010 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions

I have to imagine he wouldn't be any worse

[DELETED ZOMG NO POLITICS]

by bluemax on Apr 12, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions

They ain't ready.

no lead is safe.

by sanford_and_son on Apr 12, 2010 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions

The goosebumps are forming.

by melenious on Apr 12, 2010 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions

I totally forgot about that...yahhhhh!

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Apr 12, 2010 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Needs 8 of em.

by abender20 on Apr 12, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Even with that grim preview, I can't wait to get to leave my hotel and get to the ballpark!

by wazzu93 on Apr 12, 2010 9:39 AM PDT reply actions

You call that grim?

by Matthew on Apr 12, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Oh man don't mention the part about Griffey! being hurt then!

by seattlebruin on Apr 12, 2010 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions

Only in that the edge is to Oakland. Sorry, bad word choice. And whoo Opening Day!

by wazzu93 on Apr 12, 2010 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions

WOOO. BASEBALL. GO MS!

by melenious on Apr 12, 2010 9:55 AM PDT reply actions

Yay safeco!

Let’s go Ms. Time to play at home!

by joeh312 on Apr 12, 2010 9:58 AM PDT via mobile reply actions

We can get back in this thing by sweeping Oakland

We just need a good week to counteract the previous bad week.

The season is not over, though anyone’s fantasies of a great start to the year certainly are.

by ARock on Apr 12, 2010 10:03 AM PDT reply actions

Fangraphs has Duchscherer's slider as a cutter

I presume you selected it as a slider based of scouting reports, right? Hopefully, Ms are patient this series with Gonzalez and Duchscherer. Neither has displayed great control. I would rather take my chances with their injury ladled bullpen. Especially after Tyson Ross went 3 innings and 40+ pitches last night.

Also, can I buy low on Duchscherer’s arm. Over 50 % breaking pitches when coming back from a season plagued by injuries and little innings.

by tdot mariner fan on Apr 12, 2010 10:09 AM PDT reply actions

I don't select anything, I just go by MLBAM's pitch classifications.

They aren’t as good as BIS, but like hell am I taking the time to do it manually. It’s good enough for unpaid blog work

by Matthew on Apr 12, 2010 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions

Thanks for the clarification

The cutter would make more sense considering the K rating given to it. MLBAM really needs to look at the inconsistencies of their pitch data. I had to go through pains recently to convince a friend Burnett does not throw a knuckle-curve, unlike what gameday was saying.

by tdot mariner fan on Apr 12, 2010 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions

I think it would have been really funny to convince him that Burnett actually did throw a knuckle curve

by seattlebruin on Apr 12, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions

Pitch classification in real time is an incredibly difficult math problem

by Matthew on Apr 12, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions

It would be much much easier if pitch f/x was fed a scouting report for each player first

by Graham MacAree on Apr 12, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Isn't it? The algorithm that chooses pitch type is supposed to take a pitcher's reportoire into account.

I’ve always assumed that data comes from a scouting report/from the team.

by marc w on Apr 12, 2010 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions

This new At-Bat thing they have is pretty useful

I’m tracking the Harden start right now for example, and it’s telling me he’s throwing a heater, splitter, slider and change up. I know that he doesn’t really do all those things, but I can get average velo fot each pitch (about the same) and average movement over the course of the game (also same). Pretty helpful.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 12, 2010 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions

It clearly doesn't, though

by Graham MacAree on Apr 12, 2010 1:46 PM PDT up reply actions

This was pretty obvious during Felix starts last year

it could never tell between his turbo change up and his two seamer

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 12, 2010 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Can you?

by marc w on Apr 12, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions

Well the change I guess is usually a bit slower

so anything 90 and below I’d think was a change up and the 90-92 stuff sinker. Jeff had some trick to it as well, maybe horizontal movement?

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 12, 2010 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions

I believe that it is sorta

I think that Mike Fast or someone provided the guy in charge of GameDay’s pitch classification with training data for each pitcher, or pitch type.

by vivaelpujols on Apr 12, 2010 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions

My ears! my ears!

I thought it would be Mariners Baseball, but I get Cowherd and Schilling instead

by msb on Apr 12, 2010 10:15 AM PDT reply actions

Awww, I just realized the M's game is at 3:40 PST

that kinda sucks

by seattlebruin on Apr 12, 2010 10:18 AM PDT reply actions

Really odd start time

by E-Lizz on Apr 12, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions

Pretty typical start time for weekday day games

by Matthew on Apr 12, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm just a little surprised that opening day on a weekday wouldn't be at least a 5:05 start time

though I guess they know they’re selling out either way since it’s Opening Day

by seattlebruin on Apr 12, 2010 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions

They have done the home opener during the day every time at Safeco except for 2001.

by Robert on Apr 12, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions

Ya and what happened in 2001?

It seems with how superstitious baseball players are that this would have produced something.

Everything is Rob Johnson's fault.

by the other side on Apr 12, 2010 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions

I haven't been to many 3:40 games here on the East Coast.

It’s at 6:40 for me though which is perfect.

by E-Lizz on Apr 12, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions

I think every team handles weekday matinees a little differently.

by Mariner John on Apr 12, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions

Used to be called the Businessman's Special

Opening Day (or home opener) is traditionally a day game. Monday at 12:40 would be an inconvenient time for the sold-out first game of the season, and I believe the start time is later so it’s easier to knock off work/school early and still make it to Opening Day. The Padres moved all but one of their weekday afternoon starts this year to 3:35, in part to reduce traffic/parking impact on downtown businesses and commuters. It also helps stimulate business if fans get out of the game at 6:30 and are looking for somewhere to have dinner.

With the exception of one other 3:40 start (Wednesday 9/16 vs. Boston), M’s start times this season are 12:40 for weekday day games.

by lemonverbena on Apr 12, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions