Minor League Storylines for 2010

Hello everyone!  For those of you who don't know me I can normally be found over at my Mariners blog Pro Ball NW (formerly known as Bleeding Blue and Teal).  Jeff contacted me a while back and asked if I could pop in from time to time to bring back some minor league presence to Lookout Landing.  Don't expect massively detailed daily game wraps or anything like that, but I will try to keep you all updated on some of the major developments going on down on the farm.

To start things off, I thought I'd give a quick run through a few of the minor league story lines I'll be paying attention to in 2010 .

Breakout sluggers leave hitter haven High Desert

The High Desert Mavericks, Seattle's California League advanced-A affiliate, play their home games in one of the very best hitting environments in all of affiliated baseball. With help from the high elevation and prevailing desert winds, hitters are able to loft pitches into the jet stream and watch them sail over the outfielders' heads (while groundball hitters may benefit from rock hard infields, but don’t quote me on that). Some monster numbers have been produced, and as you might imagine it can be tough to figure out which players actually had a breakout season and who was just enjoying some home cooking. Adam Moore put up some big numbers there in 2007 but didn't get a ton of play as a top prospect until he started replicating the numbers the following year with AA West Tenn.

The Mavericks lineup put up ridiculous numbers from top to bottom last season, but there were three power bats in particular who are about to try and prove themselves in a tougher environment in 2010.  Carlos Peguero, Joe Dunigan and Alex Liddi.

Here are some quick splits.

Peguero's power is undeniable.  The 6'5", 247 pound lefty mashed 64 extra base hits last season, including 31 homers in his second season with the Mavericks (and one homer today against Doug Fister).  When the 23 year old makes contact the ball goes a long way, but that is easier said than done in Peguero's world.  Last season he struck out a whopping 35% of the time.

His improved walk rate leaves some room for optimism-- he went from an embarrassing 2.6% in 2008 to 7.6% last season-- but he is still lower than you'd like to see and pitchers may have been a little less willing to pitch near the zone against him in High Desert.  But it's nice to see nonetheless.

Peguero is in line to have some issues with more advanced pitching.  As you can see, his power played everywhere but he otherwise struggled away from Adelanto.  His ability to smash the crap out of the ball will always make him intriguing, but unless he can improve his contact rates while continuing to improve his plate discipline chances are you won't be seeing him at Safeco Field anytime soon. 

Another big lefty (6'1"/238), the 24 year old Dunigan bust onto the scene last season, hitting 30 homers after a brutal 2008 season in the pitcher friendly Midwest League.  Strikeouts are also a problem for Dunigan as he whiffed 25.7% of the time last season.  The good news is that his swing has been getting shorter and we've seen improvement in that regard the last 2+ seasons. 

As you can see, Dunigan definitely enjoyed his time in Stater Bros. Stadium and could become a little homesick once he moves up to AA.  Despite the discouraging road splits, Dunigan is generally regarded as a decent prospect who has a shot at being a big league platoon bat at first base or the outfield thanks to his physical tools, willingness to cut down on his swing and improving batting eye.

Dunigan was a little old for the league last season, but the organization apparently views him as a guy they'd like to help catch up as evidenced by his selection for the Arizona Fall League, where he hit .280/.349/.467 in 22 games.  Hopefully he makes the required adjustments needed to make it in a tougher environment.

Liddi, the best prospect of the bunch, has started popping up in the top five of national Mariner prospect lists after his California League MVP campaign last season.  After slipping off of the radar a bit the last few seasons while struggling in the Midwest League, the Italian broke through in a big way in a much more hitter friendly environment.

Liddi benefited from the home park, but unlike his fellow middle of the order mates he continued to hit well on the road.  Still, the platoon split was wide and he was also helped by a .422 BABIP (.399 on the road).  There are still concerns about his bat speed and whether the power he showed to all fields last season will transfer to a more neutral park and league (the pull power should play anywhere), but if any of these guys had an actual career rebirth it's this kid. 

I'm not yet on the Liddi bandwagon, but I'm warming up to him a bit.  It will be fun to see how the 22 year old reacts to life in the Southern League this season.  Here's hoping all of them bring their improvements with them (against the odds, perhaps).

Dustin Ackley front and center

Last summer the Mariners were able to land the best college hitter in baseball with the #2 pick in the draft.  Whenever a team is picking that high there is going to be a lot of buzz surrounding a prospect, and Ackley is definitely deserving.  His combination of a beautiful left handed swing, dynamite approach at the plate and speed have had him compared to Nick Markakis, Johnny Damon, Chase Utley as well John Olerud and Will Clark (if they could run), among others.

Ackley, optioned to AA West Tenn, is expected to be a quick study with the bat, but his fast track to the bigs took a slight detour with his transition from the outfield to second base.  Being the one position he's never played before at any level, there is going to be some growing pains and adjustment time.  The groundballs are nothing new-- he played some shortstop in high school and played first base with North Carolina while recovering from Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow-- but the position's nuances will take some time. The reviews out of Spring Training were generally good, but he flubbed a few double play turns and relays in game situations.  He just needs experience.

The bat will almost certainly play.  He hit .315/.412/.425 in 20 games playing in the Arizona Fall Leauge, his first experience as a pro against decent competition and had his moments with the big club this spring.  But it will be interesting to see how long it takes for his second base defense becomes big league ready.  I look forward to hearing the scouting reports on his progress and hopefully getting a look at him in Tacoma at some point.  If nothing else, we should all get a look when rosters expand in September.

Top prospects attempt to rebound from major injuries

Last season was a frustrating one for Mariner prospect watchers as many of the guys we were most excited to track started dropping like flies. 

Dennis Raben, a 2008 second rounder and arguably the most exciting player taken by Seattle that year, missed the entire season after having microfracture surgery on his knee.  Carlos Triunfel, arguably the organization's top prospect coming into the season, broke his leg and tore up his ankle while trying to break up a double play in early April, missing all but the last few games of the season.  Michael Pineda, who had burst onto the scene the year prior after completely dominating the Midwest League, got off to a hot start with High Desert but ended up missing much of the year with elbow problems.  

Can these players rebound and retake their places among the Mariners' top prospects?

Raben may face the biggest uphill battle as he attempts to make it back from an injury not often seen in baseball.  Chances are, his career as an outfielder is over, meaning his bat will have to max out in order for him to make it as a first baseman.  Will he be able to turn on baseballs the way he did when he showed light tower power with Miami?  It may take him a while to get back. 

If Raben does make it back to where he was, he represents one of Seattle's top first base prospects.  A probable three true outcome type, Raben has a great eye at the plate and big power, but his swing may be too long for him to hit for average.

It was nice to see Triunfel back out there in the Arizona Fall League shaking off some rust, though he had some discomfort in his leg and also gained a lot of weight while being laid up. I haven't heard anything on how the leg is feeling nowadays (he was running well in Spring Training for what it's worth), but he's made significant strides with his weight loss, hiring a nutritionist on his own dime and becoming a workout freak, according to reports.  Such dedication is nice to see from a guy who has had his character questioned in recent years.

The 20 year old will look to get back on track this season.  Triunfel is a great contact hitter who has some power potential and runs pretty well.  Miguel Tejada has been the comparison floating around for the last couple of years, and I think it's still valid, though Triunfel is bigger.  He'll play around the infield for West Tenn this year.

Pineda is currently the best starting pitcher in the system right now, but the elbow troubles are worrisome.  He represents Seattle's best combination of stuff and command, and without the elbow injury might be on his way to being considered one of the better starting pitching prospects in baseball.  Over 265 career innings Pineda has struck out 242 while walking only 59, good for a career K/BB of 4.10.  In 47 regular season innings with High Desert last year Pineda struck out 52 while walking just 6. 

His fastball is gaining in velocity (into the mid 90s now) and his secondary pitches are getting better, but he still has the ability to knock the beer out of the hand of a fan sitting in the skyboxes.  It's not often that you can find a 21 year old who can miss bats inside the strikezone, and did I mention he throws a fair amount of ground balls as well? Well, he does.

The sidearming big man (listed at 6'5/243) has been turning heads in Spring Training this year-- if you missed Dave Niehaus' call on him, you have to check it out-- and will be one to watch in 2010.  At his current pace he won't take long to climb the organizational ladder, but he has to show that he can be handle the rotation workload.

Top prospects attempt to rebound from disappointing seasons

Last season saw a few top prospects play well below expectations.

Greg Halman you probably know by now.  The Dutch outfielder is an absolute specimen and arguably the best pure athlete in the system.  As a 20 year old in 2008 he hit 29 homers and stole 31 bases to go along with a .274 batting average between High Desert and West Tenn, and was named the Mariners' #1 and baseball's #57 prospect by Baseball America afterward.  The strikeouts were worrisome, however, as he sat up around 30%, and many saw 2009 as a "prove it" year for him.

He didn't prove anything except that he was overmatched.  We got a preview of it during the World Baseball Classic, where big league pitchers carved him up like he was a Little Leaguer, and the regular season went just as horribly.  Halman hit just .209 with an OBP of .279.  The raw power was still there, but his strikeout percentage ballooned up to 40% and he led the entire minor leagues in strikeouts (192).  Halman didn't necessarily take a step back, but he didn't move forward and was definitely exposed. 

Halman is a boom or bust prospect in every sense of the word.  He has the physical tools of a superstar but the pitch recognition of Pedro Cerrano.  Chances are he's another Charlton Jimerson or Reggie Abercrombie, but there is an outside chance he becomes an Alfonso Soriano or Bo Jackson.  In order to be anything more than a fourth outfielder he likely has to show that he can improve his pitch recognition and plate discipline, and now that he's on the 40-man roster he's running a little short on time.

Halman has been optioned to AAA Tacoma, but it remains to be seen if he'll actually start there.  He didn't do anything to earn a promotion from AA, but the organization could opt to move him up just to get him a change of scenery and a different hitting coach.

Jharmidy De Jesus was a favorite of mine coming into the season after the 2007 bonus baby hit .309/.376/.530 between Arizona and Everett in his first real taste of pro ball.  Unfortunately, he was never really able to get off the ground in 2009.  He missed the start of full season baseball with a bum shoulder and ended up playing the whole season with Pulaski, a half-step below where he finished strong the year prior in Everett.  Playing first base, he hit just .249/.340/.385 over 194 plate appearances and according to some team officials didn't show any progress beyond the numbers.

De Jesus still has time to get back on track as he's only 20 years old, and he has the physical tools and raw power to make something of himself yet.  I'm looking for a nice bounce back year in 2010.

If any of you watch the Mariners Cactus League game against the Cubs on Sunday you got a glimpse of Mario Martinez playing third base and whiffing with the bases loaded late against Ryan Dempster.  Martinez is another highly rated prospect who didn't perform according to plan last season.  After putting up good numbers in Pulaski in 2008, Martinez was sent up to Clinton for his first crack at full-season ball, but couldn't get it going with the bat, hitting just .214/.264/.314 over 252 plate appearances.  The organization bumped him back down to low-A Everett where he hit .308/.340/.437 over 318 plate appearances. 

Martinez salvaged the season by improving his defense.  The converted shortstop had been struggling at third base enough that it was thought that he'd have to move to the outfield, but he quieted most of those concerns last season. 

Martinez has good physical tools across the board, is a high character guy and has shown plate patience at times but still tends to be overly aggressive.  The 20 year old will likely take another crack at full season ball this year.

Joshua Fields was deemed the most MLB ready reliever of the 2008 draft, but a holdout kept him off the field for a long time and has been blamed for his 2009 struggles finding his mechanics, which led to various arm troubles and inconsistent performance.  Fields had nice stretches last season, and if he can figure out how to repeat his mechanics and find some semblance of control he'll be in the big league bullpen in no time, but 2009 was a forgettable season for him all in all.

Our first extended look at Zduriencik's imports

Just like we've seen at the Major League level, the Mariner minor leagues have seen a lot of turnover since GM Jack Zduriencik and company took the reigns.  Many of the names that figured prominently in Mariner prospect discussions over the last couple years have been shipped out in favor of trade targets, domestic and international free agents and an entire draft class. 2010 represents the first full season that we'll get to track these guys.

We'll talk more about these guys down the road, but a few of the new prospects of particular interest are pitchers Mauricio Robles, Dan Cortes, Derrick Saito, and Tyler Blandford; outfielders Guillermo Pimentel, Joherymn Chavez, James Jones and Alexy Parma; infielders Dustin Ackley, Rich Poythress, Nick Franklin, Kyle Seager, Andres Brito and Pedro Okuda; and catchers Steve Baron and Ji-man Choi.

The West Tenn Diamondjaxx

If you are anywhere near the Southern League, make sure you make it out to a few Diamondjaxx games.  Of Seattle's nine farm teams West Tenn figures to be by far the most stacked.

The rotation could feature Dan Cortes, Mauricio Robles, Michael Pineda and Steve Hensley; the infield Alex Liddi, Carlos Triunfel, Juan Diaz, Dustin Ackley and Rich Poythress; the outfield Carlos Peguero and Joe Dunigan (and maybe Greg Halman); and the bullpen Joshua Fields, Anthony Varvaro, Ricky Orta and Edward Paredes.  All of these guys are big league prospects (to varying degrees, of course).  It's not everyday you find a team like that, especially as high up as AA. 

It'll be very interesting to see how the roster ultimately shakes out and how it morphs throughout the year.  This is going to be a fun group to follow.

Fresh meat

Don't look now, but we're getting close to that time of year when organizations are injected with all kinds of new prospects.  The amateur draft is coming up in June and the international signing period opens up a month later.

The 2010 draft won't be quite as fun to follow as the 2009 draft was for Mariner fans.  Last year the Mariners had three first round picks at #2, 27 and 33 while this year their highest pick will be at #43.  Still, it will be interesting to see Zduriencik and Tom McNamara's draft strategy in year two.  Last season they focused primarily on high floor, low ceiling position players and control pitchers.  Now that a safety blanket is in place might we see them go for some more high upside arms?

As Mariner fans we can always look forward to the international signing period as the Mariners have one of the best international scouting staffs and highest international budgets in baseball.

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Yes, that really was the quick primer. Thanks for sticking with it.  I promise you that I could have gone on for 1000s more words on the above headings, and I even skipped a few topics that I was planning on including.  But now that that's out of the way we should be able to move forward with more focus and depth while burning through fewer words.

Hope you enjoy the minor league coverage going forward.  Thanks for having me!

(Note: If you want to check see any of these guys, check out my collection of Mariner prospect videos over at PBNW.)