Neftali Feliz Isn't God Yet
by Matthew on Mar 22, 2010 5:35 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Stats
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PrintNeftali Feliz has faced all of 117 batters at the Major League level. According to swinging strike percentage, among relief pitchers with at least 20 expected innings pitched, Neftali Felix ranked 85th out of 263 eligible pitchers. According to my strike zone calculations, he ranked tied for 192nd for throwing pitches in the zone. By ground ball percentage, he was 186th. His rates have not been markedly better in the minors, even accounting for the RP/SP role differences.
He posted amazing ERA numbers in 2009 thanks in almost total part to a line drive rate of 5%, a BABIP of .185 and a HR/FB rate of 5%. Feliz might turn turn out to be better than most pitchers are reducing line drives against, but nobody is anywhere close to that good. He will allow more line drives, he will allow more hits and he will allow more home runs. And he will not continue striking out one out of every three batters with just a 10.3% swinging strike rate.
Neftali Feliz has been a slightly below average pitcher in terms of getting ground balls while showing below average control and well above average stuff. He's certainly a good prospect, but given that he's yet to debut in the rotation at the big league level and that even if he improves his control, he's unlikely to suddenly start getting more ground balls, the amount of hype he gets around here is out of proportion to his actual abilities demonstrated so far.
Yes, he throws fast. Averaging just under 96 mph with his fastball last season put him 12th in the majors, but that's going to fall is he starts throwing multiple innings. Furthermore, he's unlikely to hold onto even this level of success in the rotation throwing 70% fastballs. Feliz will probably become a pretty good pitcher down the line for Texas. The odds that he does that in the rotation are less certain and the odds that he does that in the rotation during 2010 are pretty slim.
Calm down.
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I like Neftali Feliz
But I’m glad I’m not the only one thinking folks are getting too carried away. Even Felix needed a few years in the Majors to truly grow into his King status.
Feliz could be great…or maybe not. Either way, it’s going to take time to find out.
Uh okay
This stuff happens with prospects all the time. Calm down.
Also
Hard to fault people for loving his upper 90’s fastball, high strike out counts, and low ERA. I understand what it takes for him to be a good pitcher, but hype isn’t built around ground ball ratios. Its just hype, and he still has a lot of room to grow as a pitcher, but I think everybody can agree he’s done pretty damn good with the situation he’s been presented with so far.
That's a pointless counter argument.
Just because it happens “all the time” does not mean it is unwarranted to point out that it is premature.
Well why get riled up over it?
Like him saying these things are gonna have people second guessing Feliz? Doubt it. I’ll keep it in my back pocket, but seems like a weird way to go about attacking people for gushing over an elite prospect who has produced well so far in his very young career.
I'm confused by the initial response, MattPD.
What “stuff” happens all the time? Anomalies? And are you telling Matthew to calm down, after he just told us to calm down? My head is going to explode.
This is bat country!
Let's **** some ******!
People over-hyping prospects happens all the time.
I’ll be more clear next time, didn’t mean to nearly cause your head to explode. And yes, everybody should calm down. Nothing out of the ordinary when talking about projecting prospects. Everybody should have their own opinions on the matter and I just think its kinda silly to get all worked up over other people liking the kid, even if it is too much. Just my opinion though.
Who's riled up?
Who is “him”?
And yes, I would expect people to read this and perhaps consider whether they have been over valuing him.
Using numbers to point out why over-reaching hype of a prospect is premature is a weird way of attacking hype? You’re not making any sense to me whatsoever.
Wins above replacement blog?
I would suggest the WARb is much higher, somewhere around Guti circa 2009 levels. If we adjust for position (baseball sports blogs) I can only imagine a much higher value.
Go! Huskies!
Question for Matthew:
Did you call him “Neftali Felix” in the 3rd paragraph on purpose as an inside joke here or do you reflexively jab at the X key after every “FELI” that you type?
Could be worse, we could still be referring to him as "Neftali Perez" like we did for half of last season
when him and Martin Perez for some reason became a huge collaboration of awesome who were going to kill us forever
by seattlebruin on Mar 22, 2010 8:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Ambidextrous!
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 22, 2010 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions
As a Rangers fan,
Martin Perez has me more excited than Feliz.
Feliz still has issues to work out with his off-speed pitches and command. Perez doesn’t. He just needs to get older and work his way though the system.
You did have Feliz and Holland projected to combine for 3.5 WAR at one point
just sayin
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 22, 2010 7:07 PM PDT reply actions
No I didn't.
I had that rotation slot projected to combine for 3.5 WAR, which I felt was mainly going to be handled by Feliz + Holland + some others starts.
And then I lowered it, which is really the whole point.
You did
it’s in the archives. I know you revised it, and I understand that you were talking about a job share. But can you honestly say that at that point you didn’t think he was going to be a very good pitcher in 2010?
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 22, 2010 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions
What does it matter what he thought at that point?
He has since changed his mind.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 22, 2010 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I guess I'm justifying the tendency to overestimate Feliz
If Matthew can make that mistake what hope is there for the rest of us?
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 22, 2010 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Not arguing at all
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 22, 2010 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions
You still aren't getting it.
The wins were assigned to slots, not particular players. I quote myself:
It’s more just penciling in the wins for the slot then for a particular person
The Felix + Holland slot was never saying Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland will combine to be worth 3.5 wins. It was saying I project the third rotation slot, which I expect to be manned a majority of the time by either Feliz or Holland, to combine out for 3.5 wins.
That’s a vitally important distinction on it’s own and never mind that even if you did take it at face value, which is wrong, it only speaks to the value of the two combined and not to Feliz by himself.
I'm sorry, my tone got out of hand here.
I felt that I was being nitpicked to death and got defensive. I didn’t intend any hostility, but I felt it an important point to make.
Don't worry about it.
My comment can easily be construed as saying that you’re contradicting yourself, which isn’t what I meant.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 22, 2010 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Neftali Feliz hype here
isn’t as bad as Jason Heyward hype on other sites I visit.
[DELETED ZOMG NO POLITICS]
Well Jason Heyward set fire to the Hall of Fame last weekend just because
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 22, 2010 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions
I heard that the Kennedy assassination was on account of Heyward hitting a ball so hard that it ripped through the space/time fabric.
I guess he shouldn’t have been hitting second.
Jason Heyward attached Jablome to his last name in order to get cheap laughs from hearing people solicit sexual favors in the voice of Walter Cronkite
by Dewey N on Mar 22, 2010 9:13 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
I would argue that his 2009 major league numbers are basically meaningless
Scouts feel very highly about his stuff, and I wonder how Jeremy Greenhouse’s StuffRV thinks about him.
I don't think "meaningless" is the best word to use
nor do I think you believe it, though, so, eh.
Feliz does have incredible stuff, and that’s obviously why he’s been hyped up so much. He’s a phenomenal prospect. But he’s a phenomenal prospect with a K/BB of 2 against AA/AAA competition so far as a starter. He could arrive at any moment as a bright young ace, but he’s not there yet, and though he’s a good/great reliever, he’s only a reliever for now.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 22, 2010 8:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, not meaningless
But about as meaningful as a 117 batter’s faced could be ;)
And wow, holy crap, his K:BB numbers really have do drop as a starter – I gotta think much more so than the average pitcher. I wonder if it’s a velocity thing.
by vivaelpujols on Mar 22, 2010 9:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Contact rate's a little more meaningful over 117 batters, but otherwise, yeah
The K/BB isn’t necessarily a huge concern, considering Felix was right at 2 in Tacoma before getting promoted. But it’s a question mark.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 22, 2010 10:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I wonder about how StuffRV sees a lot of people.
I’d love to see a spreadsheet for MLB, the way Greenhouse did for that initial study (pre-stuffrv).
Thanks for talking sense Matthew.
I’ve been more alarmist than most about Feliz, I’m glad that there is hope that mankind may actually survive his impending arrival.
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