Aaaaaaand It's Your Bullet Point Friday Wrap-Up!
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 19, 2010 4:05 PM PDT
in Miscellaneous
34 comments
- An update on the Jose Lopez and Chone Figgins switchsies: Wak still hasn't made a final decision, but as it's seemed for the past week or so, this is looking permanent. Wak says that everybody's on board, and though none of us were privy to the discussions that originally led to this trial, it's safe to say that, up to this point, nobody's done anything worth calling it off. I've got nothing more to say about this topic than I've already said. The team clearly believes very strongly that this is the better arrangement, and while I find that to be more than a little curious, I defer to the guys in power and their far superior knowledge.
- Garrett Olson took a ball off his left middle finger in practice and could be out for a while, effectively killing whatever shot he still had at breaking camp in some capacity. With Olson out, meanwhile, my left middle finger intends to catch up on some rest.
- Wak added that Mike Sweeney's making a real strong bid for the roster, and that the team wouldn't necessarily have to see him play first base in order to keep him. Now, Ryan Garko has options. In theory, the M's could send Garko to Tacoma and begin the year with Sweeney occupying some kind of role in the bigs. But in order to do that, they'd have to believe that Sweeney offers at least as much or more than Garko would, and given that Garko can play the field and stay healthy, that puts Sweeney up against it. Remember, just last month the Mariners signed Garko to a Major League contract and made Sweeney an NRI. Just last month, the Mariners saw Garko as the better option. For them to change their mind in spring training would require something extraordinary, meaning Sweeney better sustain his .684.
- Brandon Morrow was scratched from his outing today with shoulder soreness. He doesn't think it's serious, as it's something he's dealt with before, but as always, you have to keep a closer eye on the guys with a history.
- Cliff Lee left camp and flew back to Seattle today for some reason. Some people just really hate Arizona.
Update! From Larry Stone: Lee has a "right lower abdominal strain" and has been treated by Dr. Khalfayan. This isn't good. - Bill James is weird. I don't want to say anything bad about the guy, being who he is and all, and I won't give him the FJM treatment, but one of the founding fathers of the sabermetric movement used wins and losses to compare starting pitchers on two very different teams. It's one thing to say that Felix Hernandez is a better asset than Zack Greinke. That's perfectly reasonable. But to allege that Felix had the slightly better 2009? No. It wasn't close, and had anybody else attempted this argument, he would've been torn to shreds.
...the Mariners were 25-9 when Felix started last year. The Royals were 17-16 when Greinke started. And it was only a difference of 24 runs scored. The Mariners scored 149 runs in Felix's starts and went 25-9. The Royals scored 117 for Greinke and went 17-16.
Nevermind that the numbers don't add up. The Royals lost five of Greinke's starts by one run and four of Greinke's starts by two runs. A difference in run support of that magnitude is significant, because more run support would've given Greinke a far better record.
There's a difference in the bullpens of course. But then, the Mariner bullpen was struggling for some of the year and the Royals have (Joakim) Soria, so that's not the whole thing either.
The Mariner bullpen had a 4.32 RA and a 4.35 FIP, while the Royal bullpen had a 5.57 RA and a 4.58 FIP. Mariner relievers gave up 25 runs in Felix's starts, while Royal relievers gave up 44 runs in Greinke's starts. "And the Royals have Soria." Wow. Really, Bill?
The stuff about the Mariners' 2009 Pythagorean record and 2010 hopes for contention is weak, too, because James is trying to apply very general ideas to one very specific situation. We can forgive him for this, because James doesn't follow the Mariners very closely. The Felix/Greinke argument, however...that's not an argument that any intelligent baseball fan should make, let alone a guy who's accomplished what James has accomplished in the field of baseball analysis. It's bad.
Bill James is a gifted writer and a talented analyst. His work, even when you disagree with it, is consistently thought-provoking. But when I want to get a question answered, he's not at the top of the list of people I'd go to, nor is he anywhere close.
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From Larry Stone's tweet:
Mystery solved: Cliff Lee has a right lower abdominal strain and was treated in Seattle today by team doctor Edward Khalfayan.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?!?!?!?!?!?!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
by EnglishMariner on Mar 19, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Season over.
Who’s next year’s Strasburg/Harper?
by I Lick Squirrels on Mar 19, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
It would be a dick move on Boras' part to hold out with the #1 pick because he'll be eligible again as a JC pick.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://www.marinersminors.com/
by JY on Mar 19, 2010 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, one thing we know
Boras is never a dick on behalf of his clients.
But isn’t it more likely he’d let him go in the draft and then try to get the Nationals (presumably) to bust slot? Or, if there’s no chance of that, isn’t it still better to let him get drafted #1 and then re-enter because they can’t come to terms?
I don't know if you are being serious with the first part, but Boras has proven to be a dick on behalf of his lesser profile clients.
Ask Johnny Damon.
Even A-Rod negotiated his own contract with the Yankees after Boras wouldn’t get things moving.
@StoneLarry Zduriencik: "We are hoping for a speedy recovery and look forward to him returning.''
[what is the proper etiquette for linking to a twitter account?]
by EnglishMariner on Mar 19, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Hey I donate platelets all the time in Seattle
…
Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle
by appleshampoo on Mar 19, 2010 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Great, another Bedard...
Just kidding, I’m sure he’ll be fine…
Right now I'm dreaming of Carl Crawford. Maybe next year...(or this year at the trade deadline)...
It's a good thing he is suspended for 5 games then, huh?
He doesn’t have to worry about missing his start now because of the suspension.
by seattle_since_81 on Mar 19, 2010 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
.
I defer to the guys in power and their far superior knowledge.
I believe we have a banner displaying a similar sentiment.
by Professor Hubert J. Farnsworth on Mar 19, 2010 4:18 PM PDT reply actions
Fire Joe Morgan
May it rest in peace.
The dumbest thing I read in the article was when James said:
They’ve had a tremendous improvement for two or three years in a row. And historically, the great majority of teams that make that kind of improvement at some point have to take a consolidation step.
Come again? The Mariners were bad in 2006, okay in 2007, absolutely horrible in 2008, and good in 2009. Where does he see 2-3 years of improvement in a row? I know Baker doesn’t want to argue with him, but I was surprised that he let that whopper go uncontested.
I think it's pretty apparent
He hasn’t been paying attention to the Mariners at all
Which still, as Jeff says, doesn’t explain his use of wins to compare Felix and Greinke. Or any of the other long-discredited thinking he demonstrates regardless of his familiarity with the team.
I was yelling at the radio when Bill James was on
It was excruciating. The Pythag thing was lame, but I figured he was just trying to make the briefest argument possible and was willing to make a bad one for the sake of air time. Then he started talking about Win-Loss records for pitchers and I started yelling “Who are you and what have you done with someone who understands sabermetrics?”
They also asked him to size up the AL West race and he managed to do so without mentioning the Rangers at all — in a pregame show before the M’s played those very Rangers! I mean, if it was a six team division like the NL Central I could understand him forgetting one, and if it was a division with a Royals or a Pirates in it I could understand him deciding to skip one. But it’s not like all the projection systems have put the Rangers in the divisional basement — quite the contrary, actually.
Truly bizarre. I now find myself wondering if Theo keeps him around simply as a symbolic figurehead, kind of like Torre did with Don Zimmer.
By the way, I would be happy to see Sweeney make the team.
I like him and he hit pretty well in the latter half of the real season last year. His hot hitting now in spring training also doesn’t hurt.
Considering how ambivalent I am about Kotchmann/Garko, I guess
But Sweeney is old and can’t field. We’ve got that role covered already.
by lemonverbena on Mar 20, 2010 12:13 AM PDT up reply actions
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