The Luckiest Pitchers of 2009

Prompted from this comment by katal,

I like how the moderators don't write any posts for nearly 48 hours

And so subsequently, between this and Fogel’s take on Rob Johnson, the quality of FanPosts skyrockets in order to fill the void.

as well the chapter on luck in Tom Tango's The Book, I figured I would share this bit of writing.  Granted, I'm both eager to share my work and to get some feedback on my writing, so don't bash my head in too much for failing to understand how the ins and outs of luck work.  But if I'm horribly, horribly wrong, I apparently wasted my Sunday afternoon.

Listed below are the starting pitchers with the lowest BABIPs of 2009.

None of you should be surprised to see Jarrod Washburn’s name on that list.  That man benefited massively from the likes of Ichiro, Franklin Gutierrez, and Endy Chavez patrolling the Mariners outfield, robbing opposing batters of home runs, line drives, and gappers alike.  But even then, Washburn was very, very lucky.  Wolf ran up a 3.23 ERA in 214.1 innings, which actually wasn’t so far off from a 3.86 tRA and 3.96 FIP. Ohlendorf’s luck changed dramatically from what it was in 2008 (his BABIP dropped over .115 points), and a 5.55 K/9 doesn’t say much for his true talent level. Matt Cain, who pitched quite well in 2009, was unarguably pretty lucky, as he ended up with an ERA a full run below his FIP. For reference, his teammate Tim Lincecum’s FIP was just about level with his ERA.  And then there’s J. A. Happ.  We’ll get to him later.

Now, here are the starting pitchers with the lowest HR/FB ratios in 2009.

This list shows that even really good pitchers can get lucky.  Or, one could extrapolate, that really good pitchers tend not to give up very many home runs. Although one could argue that better pitchers induce weaker contact which leads to more weak fly ball outs instead of hard-hit home runs, for the most part, running a HR/FB ratio around 4-5 is very flukey, no matter what ballpark you’re playing in.  For reference, the league average percentage of fly balls allowed that turn into home runs was around 11.

Zack Greinke may have gotten off easily in the HR/FB department, but for the most part, he pitched to his true talent level in 2009.  Opponents hit .313 on balls in play against him, a far cry from the .274 mark run up by Clayton Kershaw.  However, Kershaw’s 3.29 tRA indicates that perhaps he wasn’t that lucky.

And last but certainly not least are the starters who stranded the most base-runners of 2009.

Notice that Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, and J. A. Happ are all listed on two of these charts.  For some illogical reason, this amuses me.

And now we can talk about J.A. Happ.  Happ was lucky to a Washburn-esque degree in 2009.  He stranded a ridiculous amount of baserunners and allowed a relatively tiny number of homers (considering he pitches in the miniscule, hitter-friendly Citizen’s Bank Park).  His K-BB ratio was only 2-1, his BABIP was way lower than the Major League average, and was only worth 1.8 WAR in165+ innings.  And yet he ended up with a shiny 12-4 record and 2.93 ERA.  Fortunately for Phillies fans, Happ has a ton of potential, and there’s a very real possibility he puts up similar numbers for years to come.  But at that point luck may not have anything to do with it.

Congratulations to all the aforementioned pitchers for not ending up like Ricky Nolasco.