Bedard Deal Official
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 6, 2010 10:46 AM PST
in Transactions
78 comments
Pretty cool that this is probably the last post I'll write before I move. I love this post.
Erik Bedard passed his physical, which shouldn't come as a surprise, because had the Mariners figured his shoulder was still messed up, they wouldn't have tried to sign him. The end result is that he's officially signed on to a $1.5m base contract for 2010 with incentives coming out the ass that could push it all the way up to $8.5m. There's also an $8m mutual option for 2011, but mutual options never get exercised, because if the player is bad the team won't pick it up, and if the player is good the player won't pick it up. I'm not entirely sure why mutual options even exist.
Yusmeiro Petit is the guy that's been knocked off the 40-man to make room. As Dave already said:
If you’re wondering, they can’t put Bedard on the 60 day DL until the end of spring training, so for now, he’ll use up a 40-man roster spot. He’ll be DL’ed before the season starts, though, so if the team needs to add a non-roster player (like Josh Bard) to the team, they’ll have Bedard’s spot to do so.
Petit remains a mildly interesting starter candidate, but with names like Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Ryan Feierabend, Garrett Olson, and Luke French already on the 40-man roster, he was kind of redundant. Plus, Nick Hill. Petit's a decent starter who'd be of more value somewhere else.
Overall, this is a surprising move that for months I never expected. As January rolled along and the Mariners kept looking for another arm, though, Bedard started to become a more realistic option, and now I couldn't really be happier with the direction they've gone. This probably does take the M's off the market for anyone else, especially if they think Bedard's going to hit some of his incentive clauses, but I suppose they could always try to sign Jarrod Washburn with loose change from the sofa. I just wouldn't count on it. The payroll, I imagine, is just about maxed out.
Through two years as a Mariner, Erik Bedard has managed a pair of half-seasons. A third would just be peaches. While I implore you to remain reasonable about your expectations, this could be pretty cool.
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I hope somewhere an Orioles fan (or both of them)
were holding out hope of signing Bedard, and that this at least partially ruins their day(s)
by sumodave on Feb 6, 2010 10:55 AM PST reply actions 4 recs
Huh.
I guess Junior and Milton Bradley are the only two guys capable of wielding a bat. Poor Chone Figgins and Ichiro. :(
~I once gave Jose Canseco $15. ~
I like the way Stacey at Camden Chat puts it.
A rotation including Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, and Bédard is straight up ridiculous.
Here's an interesting little blurb
The Orioles made a one-year offer to Erik Bedard and later came back with a revision that put them in line with the Mariners’ reported proposal, but the left-hander apparently prefers to stay in Seattle.
by OlSalty on Feb 6, 2010 11:00 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Live in B'more or live in Seattle...
Decisions, decisions.
There's a fine line between arrogance and ignorance and only I manage to erase that line.
I would think staying away from a mediocre AL East team when
the Mariners look to be contending in in the west could have a part to play.
More from Larry Stone via Mark Pieper (Bedard's agent)
Bedard, he said, "was open-minded to going pretty much anywhere. He didn’t eliminate anyone. He had a lot of good dialogues and conversations. But he didn’t want to make any decisions until he had exhausted the opportunity with the Mariners, one way or the other. If they were going to be out, because of budget limit, or the makeup of their roster, or whatever, he wanted to hear that first
Lots of other good stuff to read in that interview too.
by OlSalty on Feb 6, 2010 12:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I always kind of hoped that we would somehow be able to keep Bedard beyond the 2-year window.
Never expected it to work out like this though.
WOOOOO!!!!!
SEX!!!!!!
PLAYOFFS!!!
by I Lick Squirrels on Feb 6, 2010 11:19 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
the only down side of this move
might be that Bill Bavasi woke up today and thought, “see? i told you guys he was worth it!”
Or rather he pitches so amazing all the Bedard haters turn into Bedard lovers saying "SEE I told you it was worth it!"
You got slurved!
I'm sure it was worth losing a GM job forever.
Then again, he might be still pissed about Bedard’s “mental makeup.”
Please use proper capitalization as you did in your first comment.
We greatly appreciate it here.
Recently I forget that Zduriencik has only been the GM for one full season of baseball.
He’s made so many moves it’s difficult to fit them all into the time frame.
Fantastic, thanks! While waiting for Excel to load, I noticed the top comment "Bavasi trades should be good for a laugh".
Might be fun to tally up the players value while they were with the M’s, but so many of those guys were on and off the club so fast that’s kind of hard to do. Plus why revisit the agony of Bavasi
I like comparing Jack Z to that willer and dealer Billy Beane.
At this rate Jack Z will reach Beane’s traded for/away number in about 2 years.
Also, I had the same thought and realized it would take a lot of work.
Also, I’m just not that good at math.
The 60 day DL means that he can't pitch until June, right?
If that’s the case, not sure why some were saying that he could be ready in May.
Rehab assignments
He’ll need his own Spring Training. “Pitching” doesn’t mean “Ready to face major league hitters”
That idea is based on conjecture.
The fanbase, including the writers for USSM and LL, have been projecting Bedard’s recovery time to 10-12 months. His surgery was in July, so we projected him back in June at the earliest when we included rehab starts.
The above-linked Larry Stone interview with his agent, however, has this gem:
As for Bedard’s health, coming off last August’s surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, Pieper said Bedard is going off the estimation of Dr. Lewis Yocum, who performed the surgery.
“He told us eight to nine months, which puts you in April or May,‘’ he said. "I do understand that there are reports all over the board. In fairness to other doctors, we’re going off Dr. Yocum. He’s the surgeon, he’s well respected, he’s the one that knows Erik best"
[…]
“The way Erik feels is consistent with being able to come back at that time… We don’t want to over-promise. We’re going off the information we have,and that’s kind of the date we’re shooting for. If he comes back in the middle of May, boy, that would be outstanding.”
In short, the blogosphere may have been overestimating his rehab time. At 8-9 months instead of 10-12 months, your rehab time is cut to 9-11 months. That has him pitching in mid-April and major league ready in May. It may not be a half season of Bedard we’re getting. It could be two thirds. Or even three quarters.
Of course, this is his agent, who’s job it is to sell his client. So take it with a grain of salt.
True enough.
But there are other ways to go about that. Put him on the 15-day and then rehab him in Tacoma. He misses the first half of April on the DL, and serves rehab time in the minors. Available after that. It’s an interesting
The DL rules only specify that a player cannot return to competition before the specified duration has elapsed; they don’t state they cannot take longer than that amount of time. (That’s why Silva’s time on the “60-day” DL was really more like 120 days.)
Bedard stays on the 40-man in the case of the 15-day DL. Acknowledging his 40-man status, I’m not sure how that would play into rehab with options. He’s obviously out of option years, but do you have to use up an option for rehab of the 15-day DL since the player is still on the ML roster? If so, awesome.
Retroactive?
Can a player be put on the 60-day DL retroactive to the last spring training game in which he appeared (which would be the first official ST game for Bedard)?
The disabled list doesn't exist in spring training.
It’s only in play during the 162-game regular season. During spring training, no one can be on the DL; thus, no, you cannot retroactively apply a DL assignment to spring training (since spring training has no DL on which a player can be put).
That's his agent talking
He’s going to give you the rosiest possible picture every time. I’m not saying it’s inaccurate, I’m just saying that the speculation among the fans and writers is not any less credible than what he says.
If Yocum really says 8-9 months then great, but I’ll believe it when I see it. As is often said of Bedard, he’s not a fast healer so it’s prudent to expect a longer recovery than is predicted. What’s more, Bedard himself said in the Le Droit interview that there’s a feeling that his return was rushed last time around and that the team wants to handle his return very conservatively.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 8, 2010 8:15 AM PST up reply actions
"Of course, this is his agent, who’s job it is to sell his client. So take it with a grain of salt."
A direct quote from my post. So, yes, I’m aware.
Even if you split the difference between the blogosphere-approved 12 months and the Yocum-stated 8 months, it’s a 10 month recovery. It moves you back to late May/early June, not late June/early July. Early May is the best possible scenario; late July is the worst. We all know it’s going to fall somewhere in between.
Why would you split the difference?
12 months isnt a stab in the dark. It’s how long pitchers have taken in the past to come back from repairs to torn labrums. Bedard is a pitcher who tends to heal more slowly than others, thus people are expecting him to remain on the shelf for at least the full recovery time. And July is not the worst possible scenario. The worst scenario is that he never fully recovers at all and doesn’t throw a major league pitch all year, or ever.
Yes, Yocum is the surgeon and knows the deal and whatever. Fine. But if you start taking statements by surgeons, trainers, agents and coaches at face value then you’ll build up a set of unattainable expectations.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 8, 2010 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
By the way royalcurve, you were asking if Bedard could participate in the opening day fanfare
Well I have some good news
Rule 3.17 Comment: Players on the disabled list are permitted to participate in pre-game activity and sit on the bench during a game but may not take part in any activity during the game such as warming up a pitcher, bench-jockeying, etc. Disabled players are not allowed to enter the playing surface at any time or for any purpose during the game.
So yes, he could be out there during the pre-game opening day stuff, assuming he’s not in Tacoma at the time.
Disabled!
Yeah, what is bench jockeying? I’ve never heard that particular phrase.
I think they made that rule specifically for Eckstein
by OlSalty on Feb 6, 2010 12:57 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If that's a short joke, awesome.
Otherwise… still awesome. Mocking David Eckstein is always awesome.
Actually it means that you can't heckle players on the opposite team from the dugout
I.e. you can’t “ride” them (like a jockey).
What about being a Designated Tickler or Designated Hugger?
Because I would hate it if Griffey wasn’t able to fill his role on the team when he is on the DL.
"Disabled players are not allowed to enter the playing surface at any time or for any purpose during the game."
So what if Bedard’s on the bench when one of our players hits the game-winning home run and he leaps out on the field with everybody else to greet the player at home plate before he crosses?
by nathaniel dawson on Feb 6, 2010 1:56 PM PST up reply actions
I'm pretty sure that situation has happened many times already.
If you go back and watch footage of game-winning hits among all teams over the years, I’ll bet you can see lots of DL guys running out on the field.
Well, I am just tickled pink.
I have gone from full on freak out to weary happiness to FUCK YES. I took a picture of his photo up outside Safeco as I was leaving Fan Fest, thinking “this is the last time I’ll see him up there”. Seeing it again this morning, knowing it would stay for at least another season, made me weep a little. I won’t lie.
♥
by royalcurve on Feb 6, 2010 1:40 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
We always talk about the fact that you can pretty much take it with a grain of salt when a player talks about how much he "loves playing here and wants to stay"
But I guess it was actually true this time. Coolio.
My Mariners blog SodoMojo, My Twitter Feed
I like that there is still a good chance we get another pitcher.
Via name only our 5 starters could be something to fear.
...and now I'm here
Enjoy Portland Jeff.
I’ll take a trip down there in the next few months and buy a pitcher for you and pdb.
Also, Bedard woo and stuff.
...and now I'm here
I wonder if this means Bedard paraphernalia is no longer cheap
I was in the team store a couple of weeks ago and a lot of jerseys / balls / bobbleheads / etc were on sale at reduced prices, all related to former players like Beltre (and even Sexson and Vidro) . There was some Bedard stuff too. Maybe if you get down there fast you can grab it before it gets marked up again.
Anyone know what to make of this?
Bedard agreed to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2011, something he said meant a lot to him when he and general manager Jack Zduriencik talked.
“The second year is like this one, for a base salary and incentives,” Bedard said. “But it means if I pitch well and stay healthy, I’ll be here the next two seasons.”
link
Jeff’s not sure why mutual options even exist and here Bedard is saying that it was important to him.
Sounds like Bedard wants to stay here even if he pitches well
As opposed to testing the market after his value is restored? I dunno. Whether it even plays out like that is another story altogether.
Maybe his agent insisted?
Who knows. But if that’s really the way Bedard feels and he does turn out “to pitch well and stay healthy” and he feels that way even after he’s pitched well and stayed healthy (ie he’s not interested in using his option to test the market) then… well, crap, Zduriencik is really starting to freak me out. Could this be the first time a mutual option works out in a team’s favor in, like, ever?
French Canadians are weird
Weird is interesting. Anglo Canadians aren’t interesting. Therefore Anglo Canadians aren’t weird.
Christ what's wrong with you, you don't kick a guy in the head when he's already down
you could stub a toe. Gut, ribs or kidneys.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 8, 2010 8:18 AM PST up reply actions
I can attest that Jeff's SoCal style is
pretty legit. He rocks a checkered-ish red shirt pretty much as well as a guy can. And he knows a thing or two about good beer. Something something something mariners something.
Oh,
Something something something mariners something.
So he’s got the PNW mumble dialect down pat.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 8, 2010 8:19 AM PST up reply actions
I disagree with your assertion that the Mariners payroll this year is maxed out.
You are assuming if Erik Bedard hits all of his incentive, his compensation this year would be 8.5M. But that’s the best case scenario. The way his contract is structured is something like this:
At this point at time t0, there are a number of possibilities that could happen at time t1, which is the end of the season. You assign probability to each state to the best of your knowledge based on medical, scouting and other information, i.e. 15% he will never throw a pitch, and his payout is 1.5M in that scenario, 15% he will be healthy from Mid May through the end of the year, and his payout is 8.5M in that scenario. Somewhere in between lies the rest of the 70%, and his payout will be structured accordingly.
Now, you put Erik Bedard’s payout in column 1 of your payout matrix. In column 2, you put the payout you need to spend to sign another starter, that is: in scenario 1, if Erik Bedard never throws a pitch this year, you have to spend X to sign a full time starter this whole season; like wise, in the last scenario, if Erik Bedard pitches from Mid May through the end of the year, you only need to spend Y to sign a part time starter.
So how much money you should spend at time t0 to sign a starter given all these scenarios?
This becomes a problem solving this linear equation:
1.5M P1
(………… ) X the probability matrix = zero vector
8.5M Pn
Now assume P1 can buy you Jarrod Washburn, Pn can buy you Pedro Martinez, at time t0, how do you decide which one to sign?
I think I have to work out some more math. But you P1 through Pn can be expressed as a linear combination of other P in the solution. But which P you should pick is the question. But I do not believe the Mariners budget are maxed out. They’ve got to consider the worst case scenario.
"But I do not believe the Mariners budget are maxed out. They’ve got to consider the worst case scenario."
Couldn’t you have just said that in the first place?
by nathaniel dawson on Feb 8, 2010 7:20 PM PST up reply actions
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