AL West Projection Update
by Matthew on Feb 5, 2010 3:00 PM PST
in Seattle Mariners Stats
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PrintIt's been a month and more than a couple moves have transpired since the last update.
ANGELS:
-Signed Joel Pineiro, 5th SP WAR increased to 2.5.
-Maicer Izturis projection increased to 2.5 WAR.
-Torii Hunter projection dropped to 3.0 WAR.
-Joe Saunders projection dropped to 1.5 WAR.
OAKLAND:
-Traded for Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B WAR increased to 2.5.
-Signed Ben Sheets, 5th SP WAR increased to 2.5.
-Dallas Braden projection increased to 2.5.
-Signed Gabe Gross, LF WAR increased to 1.5.
SEATTLE:
-Signed Ryan Garko, 1B WAR increased to 1.5 in anticipated timeshare with Casey Kotchman.
-Signed Eric Byrnes, LF WAR increased to 1.5 in anticipated timeshare with Ryan Langerhans and Milton Bradley.
-Signed Erik Bedard, 5th SP WAR increased to 1.5 in anticipated timeshare with Jason Vargas.
TEXAS:
-Catcher WAR projection increased to 2.0.
-Ian Kinsler projection increased to 4.25.
-Michael Young projection increased to 3.25.
-Nelson Cruz projection decreased to 3.0.
-Rich Harden projection decreased to 2.5.
-3rd SP WAR projection (Holland + Feliz share) decreased to 2.5.
-5th SP WAR projection (McCarthy + Misc.) increased to 1.5.
I also increased everyone's bullpen WAR by one because I think I was under counting it before.
Frankly, my projections seem to be much more optimistic for Oakland, Seattle and Anaheim than any of PECOTA, CHONE, or CAIRO. Everyone seems to agree that Texas is a mid-80s win team though. I may be off, but I am not sure where. I have done these from scratch three times now and always end up in the same general spot.
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A good amount of the discrepancy involves Gutierrez and Ichiro (for CHONE at least)
CHONE has both at 2.5 WAR, so there’s 3 Wins lost right there.
I think at some point you just say screw them.
Ichiro hitting 4 wins happens almost every time.
I don't think Ichiro has much of an injury risk.
He’s been on the DL once and that was a non-sports related DL stint. He is fine.
Yeah, but everbody has some sort of injury risk, it's just the nature of the game
Ichiro may be in perfect conditioning, but that doesn’t mean you should expect him to play 160 games a season. FanGraphs has Ichiro at right about 5 WAR over the past 3 years. If you add in a little aging and regression, that gets you about 4 WAR (he is 37). If you account for the fact that there is a decent chance he misses a ton of games, that knocks it down to 3-3.5 WAR.
That's not really why Chone has him projected at 2.5 though
They project he will be a full 2 wins less valuable with his bat than he was last year, while still racking up 650 PA. Which even factoring in decline seems wrong.
And PA projections are made based on career history as well, you can’t just decide someone who’s never been hurt is going to start missing significant time because the evidence doesn’t support that. That’s not to say Ichiro won’t get hurt this year, but you can’t project him to.
Interesting. Do we really have the worst bullpen in the division?
I would not have thought that. I guess there is regression projected for Aardsma and others.
Nevermind, I see Aardsma at 1 WAR
But the rest of the bullpen apparently pales compared to it’s AL West rivals.
I wasn't intending to be dramatic, or question your projections.
Maybe “pales” was too strong. It was more like, “Huh, I would not have thought that.” I understand half a win to one win is not much.
OUr bullpen really wasn't that good last year
by Graham MacAree on Feb 5, 2010 3:28 PM PST up reply actions
How does one account for less Bullpen exposure
as the result of improved starting pitching?
Or does one?
I would have expected League to bump up the bullpen WAR a little more than that
On the other hand, having better rested arms and giving fewer innings to whoever plays Miguel Batista
should help. If all your bullpen innings are going to Aardsma Lowe Kelley and League then I imagine the pen’s WAR would be higher than if Luke French got 60 innings in.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 8, 2010 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
On the surface the numbers make sense to me
For the A’s, Coco Crisp is likely to get more playing time than Gabe Gross, I would think. I also would seat-of-the-pants-guess that the TEX 1Bmen will get more than 0.5 WAR, although I’m not sure where they will get it. Thanks for the work you put in, Graham.
My apologies
Total brainfart. I should stop trying to read one thing while typing another at the same time. Matthew, thank you for all your work on this, it looks great.
What in the world would you expect out of him?
He’s the reason I bumped up the 5th SP projection, but he hasn’t started in the Majors since 2003. I have no idea what to expect.
I don't know
CHONE and PECOTA are both pretty bullish on him. Probably too optimistic, really.
by Adam J. Morris on Feb 5, 2010 4:04 PM PST up reply actions
In 2007...
He pitched 95 innings for the A’s AAA team with a 3.01 FIP and 37 innings of relief for the A’s, where he was not as good, with an FIP of 5.79.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
I think you may be undervaluing the Texas bullpen as well
sounds crazy to say it but Oliver and Wilson combined will fall into the 2.8-3.0 or more WAR total. That leaves .5 to .7 total for the rest of the bullpen outside of the closer.
Unless Nippert (1.0), O’Day (1.4), Mathis (.4) or Moscoso (.1) all collapse it is unlikely they will leave an aggerate total of only .5 to .7 WAR. Looking at last years bullpens for all AL West teams only Corocan and E. Guerdado had WAR at -.4. I think you are missing the fact that overall range on negative WAR is much smaller than the range of a pitcher with positive WAR. It makes intuitive sense just due to the fact that is you are doing well as a reliever you keep going out, and if you suck you lose chances and even can get cut. Overall you might want to look at average season WAR values of a bullpen and then just deduct the closer.
The other thing I think needs mentioning is that lets not forget that Feldman’s WAR was negatively impacted with the Rangers attempting to use him as a starter. His WAR as a reliever as a -.23. Dropping him from a guy that had a3.5 WAR as a SP to 1.5 is a tad aggressive. I would not be surprised to see him fall in the 2.25 to 2.5 WAR range.
As far as Lewis… The projection systems love him. I would not be surprised to see him produce in the same range of WAR as Zito, Penny or Aaron Harang. That is still at the 2.2 to 2.5 level. Lewis is going to be a very difficult guy to handicap.
The major problem you are going to have is that the Rangers, as a whole, have a very fluid roster. If Harden, Lewis and Feldman front that rotation, what happens after that? McCarthy is out of options and Hunter was the most consistent performer of the young arms. That would leave both Holland and Feliz in the bullpen or AAA.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
I keep all the bullpen WARs low
I don’t yet agree with FanGraphs’ WAR figures for RP, much less SP.
WAR in general is a funny animal
The lack of a accurate metric to guage C and 1B defense is a major sticking point. All metrics have flaws. You get stuck with what you got.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
It's hard for relief pitchers...
…to have a consistently high WAR from year to year. I think he’s right to regress bullpen metrics hard.
Also, I don’t think the Feldman regression is absurd either. It’s easy for fans to overrate him because he pitches in a way that is dependent on a good defense and the Rangers had a good defense last year. He’s being projected to have an FIP of 4.76 by CHONE and Marcel. Depending on IP, I think that’s somewhere between 2.4 and 2.7 WAR. Considering he doesn’t have the track record of some other pitchers, I don’t think that regression from an FIP of 4.3 is unwarranted…though I hope he can keep it under 4.5.
I do think there’s decent enough evidence to rate Colby Lewis higher though. I’m not sure how much it changes things as that would basically replace Holland and Feliz from realistic projections as both are likely to start the season not as Ranger starters.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
but if you pull Holland and Feliz from the rotation and insert Lewis, you still have that WAR total in the pen.
It is going to be very difficult to rate the entire Rangers bullpen outside of the closer at a 3.5. Same to be said with Oak. Ana total of 3.5 including the closer would be EXTREMELY low for any team. Bullpen WAR is a disaster, but if the objective to do full team WAR’s it has to be addressed.
If he is going to regress Feldman that hard due to lack of track record, where is the massive drop for Dallas Braden or RRS (with his low 71% LOB rate and .262 BABIP) ? Those are just the first 2 I noticed. Both of those guys make made major one year WAR jumps with limited track records and gets the benefit of the doubt and a slight if not no regression.
Even looking at comparisons of WAR data with the FIP and IP projections from CHONE and Marcel still puts Feldbman in the 2.0 – 2.2 range. That with the much lower IP projections.
It is not the fact the fact of overvaluing Feldman, it is the fact that in any metric system you must maintain consistentcy in how you evaluate the outliers. If Feldman is expected to have a 55% reduction that fine, then treat the rest of the players in the same situation the same manner.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
I have no idea how you get this statement:
“Even looking at comparisons of WAR data with the FIP and IP projections from CHONE and Marcel still puts Feldbman in the 2.0 – 2.2 range.”
The FANS projection for him comes out to 2.2 WAR based off a 4.44 FIP and 184 IP. CHONE and Marcel both project Feldman around 164 IP with a 4.76 FIP. That’s worth about 1.4 WAR.
Kouzmanoff at 2.5 seems a little high
Then again that opinion is coming from a guy who doesn’t know crap about baseball metrics, just that I live in SD and saw him from time to time.
2.7, 2.8, 2.7 the last three years
per FanGraphs. I knocked him down for moving to the AL, but he has not been a bad player.
Kotchman v Chris Davis
I understand the WAR system. Note that Kotchman (who I really like) is well up on Chris Davis. I just don’t agree. Davis had some serious struggles in 2009 but came back to finish strong. Again, while I like what Kotchman has to offer, he is not better overall than Davis. Casey is really outstanding defensively but Davis is at least a tick above average. I give Kotchman the advantage BA wise but Davis is a top-notch power hitter with tremendous potential. He should easily outpace what Kotchman can do (even with 100+ K’s). If Seattle was offered Davis for Kotchman even up they’d JUMP at it.
That 1.5 WAR is for the anticipated Garko/Kotchman platoon
Not just Kotchman by himself.
Also: I just did a projection on Davis
And ended up with .5 WAR, same as Matthew. This is with a .250/.305/.460 line and 27 HR. When you walk as little as he does while striking out at such a high rate it’s hard to be productive.
add in Garko
You make a good point. Garko should be useful vs LHP. I guess it will depend on which Davis shows up. The 2008 version was a monster vLHP, while the 2009 version vLHP was a kitten. My point was that Kotchman, though notably competent, is just not a… ‘cut above’. Whereas Davis could very well be and more. That’s why they play the games I guess.
I am a Kotchman fan. I see him being a very good fit. Further, he is really very good defensively and is a potential gold glove level guy.
"Davis is at least a tick above average."
Please cite something to back that up because both +/- and UZR say he’s bad.
Davis Defense
Go to Google Blog. Type in… Chris Davis Rangers Defense
You will see numerous accounts of how he is very highly regarded defensively. UZR for 1b is not very credible. Several sources note that even though he was suffering offensively, he was so good defensively that the Rangers hesitated to demote him. I see him as above average but not by a huge amount. I see Kotchman as a potential gold glover
A lot of people think things that are wrong
Why is UZR not credible for 1B?
You do the research
Compare the UZR for Howard v Teixeira. Now Howard has shown improvement, but he couldn’t carry Teixeira’s glove. UZR is NOT the total end all, be all at 1b. If you think Howard is superior to Teixeira just because UZR tells you so then you are missing something.
I'm not the one making the claim so I don't think I should have to do the research
UZR is not perfect, obviously. And because of that when you don’t have a lot of data on a player then yes, a visual account is still useful. But visual accounts can also be very misleading.
Why do you single out 1B as being a position UZR doesn’t measure correctly?
I don't
My research tells me that both C and 1b are just not correctly viewed as yet by UZR. I encourage you to search it out for yourself. I’ll make every effort to save my sources next time I run across the discussions and pass it on..
Scoop
For example… UZR has issues taking into account the 1b-man’s ability to scoop out low throws. Type in under Google Bog search… ‘UZR 1b’ and you’ll see numerous accounts of contradictory evidence. I ain’t wikipedia.
Here's a really good Fangraphs article on the subject
An excerpt:
“In fact, it appears that the spread in talent between the best and worst "scoopers" at first base is on the order of 2-3 runs, plus or minus (a 4-6 run spread).”
MLB players just don’t make enough bad throws to make it a significant portion of first base defense.
I remember that article.
I was pretty amazed to see that the difference was so little.
Perhaps, the problem with 1B UZR (and likewise C) has to do with the uniqueness of the position.
If a ball is hit between the 2B and the 1B, the 1B has to decide whether to cover the bag or go after the ball. Rarely does this situation occur for the 2B, SS, or 3B.
Similarly, although not to the same degree of effect, the 1B is limited because he has to hold a runner on the base more often and is more restricted range-wise than any other IF position.
Also, the 1B’s ability to turn a DP is another aspect that, I think, isn’t considered by UZR. Furthermore, isn’t an out considered an out whether it be at 2B or 1B? In both cases, isn’t it more valueable for the 1B to make the out at 2B or turn the DP, than simply walking a fielded ball back to 1B?
There are other factors, too, that make the position unique, of course. But, it would be interesting to see if any of the above influence the defensive value of 1B.
by shields2seamer2lefthanders on Feb 6, 2010 7:43 PM PST up reply actions
Could you point out where your "research" found UZR numbers for Catchers?
As I don’t know that I’ve ever seen Catcher UZR before.
And it would be very difficult for “C” to be “correctly viewed as yet by UZR” when the stat doesn’t exist for catchers.
Because the massive amount of fluctuation in 1B UZR data
or the fact that 1B has the most reliability on other players actions or the fact that there is little movement on the 1B and so a range based stat will always show a lot of variation.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
There's a pretty good amount of fluctuation in UZR data for all positions though
Is there actual evidence that year to year correlations are less accurate for 1B specifically? You may very well be right I’m just curious to know because that seems like something that could be conclusively proven if one were to do the work.
Actual Evidence
There really isn’t much either way. How do you imagine that proof either way could be determined?
First base positioning problems is one reason that it would lack reliability. How would you score a ball in the 1st baseman’s “zone” when he is holding a runner?
If there is indeed something wrong with the way UZR measures 1B specifically you would expect greater year to year fluctuations at that position than at other positions
It’s possible to measure year to year correlation in UZR data, so therefore it shouldn’t be hard to prove that 1B defense is measured less accurately.
Some people think it's because it doesn't encapsulate picking throws out of the dirt
I’m not sure how valid that it is.
Anyways, Davis has had a little over 1000 innings at first base in his major league career. UZR or +/- mean very, very little over that small of a sample.
I could write a blog that the reason Yuniesky Betancourt still has a job is his defensive skills but that won't make it true
Statistically he’s been below average.
Well it's a small sample size so there's plenty of reason to anticipate a change
But for now, I’ll accept the numbers at face value.
Face value
I know people who do that with mass emails sent to them by their friends. What do those who see Davis every home game think? It’s there to be found if you look for it.
Oh please
I remember when you guys were telling us Michael Young was an amazing shortstop.
by Graham MacAree on Feb 5, 2010 5:04 PM PST up reply actions
BA
I remember when batting average was the end/all be/all stat too. Nellie Fox was a fine player, but he wasn’t Mickey Mantle.
For the record.
I think he’s the only one arguing this point in this manner. I’ve already made my point on the issue, but would rather not be lumped into the “You must not watch Player X, therfore you suck. QED. PS-MY for MVP!” crowd.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
Not my argument
If you go by UZR then Howard is better than Teixeira. Do you really believe that? And I don’t discount what sources who are more familiar with a player have to say out of hand.
Do what works for you.
So use plus-minus
Or eyeball all of the defensive stats.
by Graham MacAree on Feb 5, 2010 5:18 PM PST up reply actions
I just went back through the BA prospect annuals from when Davis was a minor leaguer
They have him as ‘adequate’ at first, bad at third with wonky footwork , and decent in right field. I’ve also heard the Rangers broadcasters love all over his glove, but that’s hardly worth considering. So, two sources of data – middling reports and kinda bad UZRs in a fairly small sample.
You could make a lot of arguments supported by what we have, but you’re hardly going to get anything conclusive out of it. I’d guess he’s -5 to 0 right now.
by Graham MacAree on Feb 5, 2010 5:13 PM PST up reply actions
JD and the rest of the Rangers FO really like Davis' glove.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Have they said anything in particular about him?
Footwork, glovework, etc?
by Graham MacAree on Feb 5, 2010 5:32 PM PST up reply actions
glovework
He’s really good around the bag. Nice range but nothing great.
"I was going to say, 'You’re gay for Elvis.' But then I realized that I, too, am gay for Elvis." ~Adam J. Morris.
Not surprising for a converted third baseman who had trouble with his feet.
Shame that his arm gets wasted that way though.
by Graham MacAree on Feb 5, 2010 5:40 PM PST up reply actions
Really?
I have a hard time remember when anyone I know considered him a great glove SS… Great bat at SS but…
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Well it was more all y'all taking offence at us calling his glove 'godawful'
by Graham MacAree on Feb 5, 2010 5:14 PM PST up reply actions
not really
he might be one of the worst defenders I have seen at SS as a regular everyday player in the last 5 years. Painful to watch. I think Young would almost be as bad as putting Loafie at SS now.
The problem was that the alternatives where a hell of a a lot worse offensively with a slight offensive improvement.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Lots of Rangers fans were upset when we derided people calling MY
‘The best player in the AL West’ because we brought up that he was horrid with the glove and that it sapped a lot of his value away.
Man, that was a while ago.
Early 2007?
by Graham MacAree on Feb 5, 2010 5:34 PM PST up reply actions
That's an awful idea for UZR
UZR does actually measure value like wOBA – it tries to measure value. Even ignoring sampling error, Davis has had only 1229.1 innings at first so far in his career. His UZR/150 is -2.7; however, it’s very possible that he could have really been a +5 or +10 defender, and UZR didn’t measure it properly.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/john_dewan_and_research_assistant_speak/
UZR is all about inference, and 1229.1 innings is a very small sample size to infer from.
Really?
How often have you seen Davis play ‘D’? Have you checked with those who have? To be sure he’s no Kotchman, but he not as bad as say… Ryan Howard.
I remember this divergence last year.
Rangers fans, beat writers, coaches, even management all reviewed his defense glowingly. He seemed to have decent range combined with an outstanding ability to pick wayward throws to first. Fans and coaches loved it, the front office mentioned at the time and in hindsight that it’s part of the reason they kept him up as long as they did…that he was still providing value.
But when I went to fangraphs, I saw that he was rated as 2.2 runs above average (compared to Davis’ -5.3) and was very confused. I’m not saying I wholly trust my eyes or admittedly biased viewers over stats, but I do wonder if we’re missing something. FanGraphs even attempted to look at 1B ‘picking’ skills and I think determined that there wasn’t much difference to be seen. I don’t want to say that UZR is wrong, but I think their may be more to the story.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
UZR v eyes
Mt research has shown that 1b (and catcher) have yet to be nailed down by UZR. I am stats orientated so I would lean to UZR, but other sources I trust say otherwise for both C & 1b. I refer back to the Howard-Teixeira conundrum. I originally made my comments comparing Davis to Kotchman overall. I much prefer Kotchman defensively. Defense is not a concern re: Davis… strikeout are.
For your scouting report
In what aspects do you see him as above average with the glove? Do you see UZR undervaluing his range, his ability to turn double plays, or ability to prevent errors? Or all three?
UZR seems to like him for relatively error-free play at 1B, but docks him for range.
UZR doesn't necessarily say he's bad
He’s got 151 total games at 1B and in that time he’s amassed -2.6 UZR. I don’t think that’s enough time nor a large enough number to say he’s “bad.”
I tracked Davis' UZR throughout the year with the weekly fangraph updates
Part of the reason why he was allowed to struggle for so long was the impression that he played very good defense, and the weekly UZR updates agreed with it – he was consistently above average defensively the first part of the year (I remembered he was at +2.5 runs or something at some point). Then within a span of a couple of weeks or so before he got sent down, he went from +2 to -2.5 or something UZR for whatever reason. After he came back, he just drifted down to the final -3.3.
I know this kind of UZR tracking is bad form because of sample size, but he played average defense for pretty much the entire year with the exception of a couple of weeks (somewhat like Michael Young, who excelled to the tune of UZR of -13 a month into the season). I am not going to try to “throw out” those two weeks, since everybody has bad defensive streaks, but I am wondering if he has the ability to play average defense since he apparently did it for most of the year. In the Michael Young case, for example, it’s reasonable to say that since Young had a positive UZR after the first month, we can expect him to be close to average defensively next year, I don’t know if we can make the same kind of statement for Davis.
Adding Byrnes doesn't upgrade our LF production at all?
Byrnes + Langerhans = Saunders + Langerhans?
In between updates, I had downgraded LF to 1.0 WAR
Byrnes moved it back up to 1.5
I see. Looking at fangraphs it looks like Byrnes and Saunders are probably similar value anyways.
Makes sense when you factor in defense and injury likelihood.
Speaking of CHONE, Chone seems a little low.
I guess we can say there’s some upside there.
Going by WAR...
Do we really have 4 of the top 5 players in the AL West, or are we wearing rose colored glasses?
I think there's a decent chance...
..that Harden surpasses 4 WAR this year. But I understand how tricky it is to project him with the whole injury/IP issue.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
That's a pretty lofty expectation.
Especially for someone as oft-injured as Harden. And in that Rangers ballpark.
My understanding of Harden is that he misses a lot of bats.
Sort of like Bedard. This makes me thing he maybe won’t suffer as much as other more contact oriented pitchers would in a park like Arlington.
He also gives up a lot of fly balls.
Often those turn into HRs. He didn’t exactly go to the best park to limit his HRs.
That said...
I don’t think he’ll get enough IP this year to reach 4 WAR. I think Matthew got him right.
I agree.
I think it’s a matter of IP. This is probably a bit of spring fever, and the realization that the Rangers need 150+ IP from him to be a true contender in a competitive West, but he would be my main answer to the question “Who is better and why?” Harden and because he has the talent, though maybe not the health.
Also, it’s interesting to note that the only Rangers pitchers (50 IP min) with positive E-F gaps last year were Holland and Harrison. Considering they had 3 ~10 UZR defenders last year and can probably expect to see some significant improvement from CF with Borbon and LF with Hamilton, I think it’s legitimate to think that the Rangers defense can mitigate some of the RBiA effect.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
Yeah...
I’m not sure I realized that before going back and looking at his stats after I wrote that. I just assumed he needed innings to reach that level, now I see that it’s not that simple. Unless he takes part in whatever ritual/sacrifice the Angels do every spring and hits 210 IP…
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
Re: Rose colored glasses
Matthew’s projections account for Ichiro, Gutierrez, Lee, and Felix to all take steps back compared to their 2009 WAR.
I would contend that if anything, he is bearish towards the Mariners’ roster.
We also have 3 of those 4 under long term contract
And if Figgins has another good year (esp. defensively), you have to start looking at putting him up there, too.
So the most valuable position player in the division is
Kinsler?
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
Depends if his improved defense last year...
…was real or not. Or, rather, whether or not he can continue that level of defense. Last year: 9.6 runs above average. The previous 3 years he averaged around -10 runs/year. Working in his favor, he has been known as a guy who has good range but makes too many mistakes when he gets to the ball. This seemed to be corrected last year, but I’m not sure if that will be the case this year.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
I'm guessing his defense is not nearly as good as UZR had him last year
But if you regress his BABIP to his career average that sort of makes up for the difference.
Heh...
…we hope. Kinsler seemed to change his swing a bit to more of an uppercut type swing, we’re assuming in an effort to hit more home runs. While he did get his 30/30 season, he also hit a lot more flyballs. From fangraphs:
06-08: 44.4% FB, 21.5% LD, and a 0.77 GB/FB ratio
2009: 54.0% FB, 15.9% LD, and a 0.56 GB/FB ratio
Now, many of the Rangers hitters have alluded to trying to hit more line drives instead of being pressured into hitting home runs this year (Hamilton, Davis and I think Kinsler also)…but I’ll believe it when I see it. Either way, Kinsler is likely to be hitting 5th in the order instead of leadoff, so maybe his lower OBP won’t kill us as much next year.
If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.
To be honest, I think your projecctions a lot closer to the truth than
most projections of the AL west. It’s gonna be a serious dog fight this year, and I’m looking forward to it.
#34 Forever
Plugging the upside since 2006.
Never give up, never surrender!
I still can't get over how close the AL West is projected to be.
Amazing!
by ThundaPC on Feb 5, 2010 6:10 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
It should be a very fun season.
by algionfriddo on Feb 5, 2010 6:20 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Indeed!
Since each WAR matters so much for our playoff chances now, I’m excited for what GMZ will do in-season. It seems like we’ve got enough flexibility to make more moves and improve the talent level in the months ahead. The M’s are relatively well protected against collapses by individual players due to their depth, too.
Which is why it sucks
The M’s see so much of the A’s at the start of the season, the only time Sheets is fairly certain to be healthy. Then again, I guess they get to look forward to facing a healthy Bedard later.
Depends on who their opening day starter is
If Sheets if their 1st or 2nd starter then the M’s only see him once in the first series and skip him while playing Texas. Then the M’s have a good chance of missing him on the two game series May 17-18.
Sheets will start opening day
No reason to worry though since the A’s will score 0 runs vs. Felix. A’s have a big SP advantage for SPs 3-5 over the M’s, and 4 of those 6 games are SPs 3-5, so that scheduling looks good for the A’s.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
I like what you are doing
I’m just a tad worried all the projections might be a little optimistic since the win values for all the teams seem pretty high. Basically using these win values, the AL West is winning 86 games on average per team which is pretty good/great.
If we project the Yankees, Boston and Tampa Bay to win 92, 90 and 90 games next year which is probably realistic looking at their lineups (can be debated a little but roughly probably is a good realistic guess) we find that there are only 518 wins left for the 7 remaining teams in the American League. This means that the rest of the teams will average 74 wins. It just seems that the AL West might not be that much better than the rest of the league and all the projections might need to be adjusted down by a couple wins. By position I think everything looks fine but I’m just trying to do a reality check. It might be fine. Maybe the rest of the teams in the league kinda stink (I’m looking at you…AL Central).
You're forgetting that the AL will crush the NL in interleague play.
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So if you estimate the average AL team to win 83 games, these projections here look pretty accurate.
Even if you assume the AL East 3 will average 95 wins, it’s perfectly reasonable given the weakness of such teams as Detroit, Kansas City, Baltimore, and Toronto.
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I've been thinking the same thing
And it could be that injury bug mentioned earlier. We’d like to think that certain players are resistant to injury, but they can pretty much happen to any player at any time.
The projections might not be all that far off, though. If 3 of those 7 teams win around 65 games, that would put the other 4 right around .500. That might be competitive in the AL Central.
by nathaniel dawson on Feb 5, 2010 8:19 PM PST up reply actions
The AL West won 86 games on average in 2009
Lost somewhere in all the Yankees/Red Sox/Rays “AL East juggernaut” hype was this simple truth: based on their aggregate records, the West was the strongest division in the AL last year
Overall the AL West went 95-79 vs the East and 96-78 vs the Central.
Heck, the sad-sack A’s came within one win of going .500 vs the almighty AL East.
This is exactly right. We just don't get the hype of the AL East.
by TrustBaseball on Feb 5, 2010 9:50 PM PST up reply actions
That's because they have way better teams
by Aaron Campeau on Feb 6, 2010 1:14 AM PST up reply actions
They have way better teams but also worse teams.
We don’t have a 2010 Toronto in the West, nor did we have an ’09 Baltimore.
I think Braden is probably too high now
he has some lingering injury problems such that I wouldn’t project as many IPs as he’d need to get there. Might be evened out by the fact that the A’s now have a very strong #6 and #7 SP though.
With stout hearts, and with enthusiasm for the contest, let us go forward to victory. ----Hero Defector Montgomery
Forgive me if this has been addressed,
But why is Lee projected higher than Felix? Handedness? or pure talent?
Safeco plays better for lefties.
And Lee is a little more seasoned. I don’t think pure talent is too close though. I think when Felix is Cliff Lee’s age he’s got a decent shot at having more than 1 cy young.
Hey, that's a good question. I just realized I was assuming it was innings, or strikeouts.
Something like that, didn’t even think about it until you asked. Now I’m curious too.
Matsui
Is projected about 1 win to high. Last year, his statistics were seriously helped by the Yankee stadium. Last year, his HR/FB increased to his highest rate ever, about five percentage points over his last three healthy seasons. Other lefties in the NY lineup also experienced a jump. It seemed this resulted from the park. Therefore, Matsui’s stats were misrepresented last year. His WAR last year should have been lower. Then he has gotten older and past seasons stats lower. It should be at least half a win lower – maybe the Chone projection of 1.1.
Perhaps
But, he seemed to do fine outside of Yankee Stadium as well.
http://www.fangraphs.com/splits.aspx?playerid=1659&position=DHOF&page=0&split=ha&type=mini
by shields2seamer2lefthanders on Feb 6, 2010 8:13 PM PST up reply actions
Great work Matthew!
I still believe it will be a random injury or two or some young players taking a huge step forward that will decide this division. So very close it is exciting to think about it.
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