Quick Additional Note On Lopez/Figgins
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 24, 2010 11:54 AM PST
in Seattle Mariners Stats
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PrintFrom zero posts on the topic to two in a few waking hours. You don't know what I'm gonna do next!
Anyway, one of the main topics of discussion both here and elsewhere as far as the whole Lopez/Figgins scenario is concerned has been the matter of positional adjustments. There's been a lot of research on this, and while I'll spare you the math, people smarter than me have found little difference in how players field at third base and second base. That is, while second base gets more opportunities, third base gets more difficult opportunities, and the overall position adjustment between the two positions is zero. Given an average 2B, and given a switch to 3B, you would expect him to post a similar or equivalent UZR.
Implied by this is that the underlying skillsets required at 2B and 3B are the same, but that doesn't hold. While, overall, there isn't much difference, you can see some individual differences when you break things down. Let's do a little analysis of the Fan Scouting Report. If you compare all the 2Bs to all the 3Bs, or if you compare the top 20 2Bs to the top 20 3Bs, you end up with meaningful differences in the following two categories:
Velocity/sprint speed: more important for 2B than 3B (difference of 0.4 for total, 0.4 for top 20)
Throwing strength: more important for 3B than 2B (difference of 0.5 for total, 0.8 for top 20)
This, of course, comes as no surprise. It's completely intuitive - second basemen need better range, and third basemen need stronger arms. Now we just have a little statistical evidence.
Figgins is quick, light on his feet, but there are questions about his arm strength. Lopez is a little slower, but he's got a better arm.
This is what people mean when they say Figgins seems more naturally suited for 2B while Lopez is more naturally suited for 3B. Figgins has the body and skillset of a second baseman, and Lopez has the body and skillset of a third basemen. It just so happens they've been playing in different positions.
By flipping them, then, the M's are simply trying to find out if they can maximize each player's strengths while minimizing their weaknesses. In a hypothetical world where both players adjust to their new roles quickly, then, in theory, the M's should be better off. And if they can't adjust quickly - if Lopez can't handle the heat, or if Figgins struggles with the DP - then that should become evident pretty fast, and the whole experiment can be called off, with no damage being done.
It's February 24th. What's the harm?
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Range
I’m sorry if this has been discussed in the previous thread, but I’m not sure I buy that second basemen need better range. I think its tied into what you said about 3rd basemen having to make more difficult plays.
It seems to me that balls get to 3rd a lot quicker than they do second, so even though the second basemen moves further to get to balls, 3rd basemen have much less time to react. Since time as well as distance factor into range, I don’t see how it matters too much.
I'm not sure I follow
but reactions/instincts is a separate category in the Fan Scouting Report, and there’s a negligible apparent difference between 2B and 3B.
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 24, 2010 12:55 PM PST up reply actions
I kinda wish the Marlins had stuck to their Mike Lowell at second experiment
Because I would like to see how an experienced thirdbaseman (with a typical thirdbaseman’s body) would fare at second
Ok.
So if a player is a split second slower on a diving play, its considered reaction/instict rather than range?
That or Acceleration/First Few Steps
which is another category. Range is generally taken to mean ability to cover ground while running.
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 24, 2010 1:11 PM PST up reply actions
I would say it is because of the fact that 2nd basemen have more time to react to a ball that a 2nd baseman needs to be able to cover a larger range.
The 2nd baseman needs to be able cover ground to back up the 1st baseman if he can’t get to a ball plus cover balls up the middle. I couldn’t find an illustration for zones by position, but I would think that the zones for the 2nd baseman and shortstop would be bigger areas than the zones for the 3rd baseman and 1st baseman. 3rd basemen and 1st basemen will need quicker reaction times since they are usually positioned closer to the plate by distance than the shortstop or 2nd baseman.
by seattle_since_81 on Feb 24, 2010 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
Going Beltre to Figgins was going to make me sad
going Beltre to Lopez might put me on medication. Lopez might have a good arm, but Beltre had a particle accelerator.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 24, 2010 12:47 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Another thing...
It seems as though the higher weighted plays in baseball factor in better for a second baseman to have a strong arm and a third baseman to have better range. I’m thinking mainly of double plays for the second baseman and fielding bunts for the third baseman. If we have a known slowpoke at third, couldn’t that mean that our opponent would bunt more (obviously, having a strong arm could help offset this). Likewise, a weak arm at second would mean we would convert less double plays, which, if I’m not mistaken, matters in terms of win expectancy.
Does this stuff even matter? Or am I overvaluing one aspect of defense on those types of plays?
But there are more players covering a bunt than there are covering a double play ball.
The pitcher/catcher/3rd baseman or 1st baseman (depending on which side of the field the ball is bunted to) is going after the ball on a bunt. For only the 3rd baseman to have an opportunity at a bunt, it pretty much has to be perfect.
by seattle_since_81 on Feb 24, 2010 12:58 PM PST up reply actions
A throw from 2B to 1B is 90 feet
3B to 1B is approximately 127.4 feet. Arm strength is far more important for the routine plays a 3B makes than it is for the 2B turning a double play.
And yeah, it’s nice to have a 3B with speed to turn bunts, but they’re called on to do that so much less often due to all the other positions able to cover a bunt that it’s not really as much of a primary concern as it is for 2B.
Not sure
About the first point. I don’t think distance can be the only factor in making throws. A second baseman turning two has to make the throw across his body and with little momentum moving in the direction of first. A routine play for a third baseman is easier because he can get more of his weight behind the throw.
I see your second point, though. Especially since the second baseman is also involved in a bunt and needs range to cover first and make the out.
3B have to make lots of off balance throws too, they don't always get to set their feet
And they have to make them from a greater distance.
Quite true.
After I posted that, I had several flashbacks of Beltre moving to his left, away from first, spearing the ball and gunning someone out while barely setting his feet.
I’m really going to miss that guy.
It's even farther than that
when you account for the fact that usually a third baseman is throwing from behind the bag and sometimes even from foul territory.
What's the Harm? Probably that Wak makes the move even if isn't working
Wak worries me sometimes with his gut decisions over-ruling everything else. There’s going to be difficulties in this move and not all of them are going to be ironed out in Spring Training. I just worry that Wak will be so enamored of this move that he’ll make it regardless. I don’t want our infield defense to be a work in progress as we start the season and with this move, it definitely will be.
Wak has been awesome so far and we have no reason to believe that he will make a crazy decision based on his gut if it's clearly hurting the team
by seattlebruin on Feb 24, 2010 2:20 PM PST up reply actions
Wak has turned around the clubhouse and knows how to treat his players
but he sometimes makes strange decisions. He seems very confident in his evaluations and may have convinced himself over the winter that the switch would work. I’m not saying this is the right move or the wrong move, I just hope he keeps an open mind and is willing to give up on the idea if it doesn’t seem to be panning out.
Get the Mariners Annual that Dave & company put out.
by Terminator X on Feb 24, 2010 3:48 PM PST up reply actions
Yes, Wak's interview in there stated that he uses his gut on a lot of things
That’s probably how we got Rob Johnson as our #1 catcher despite no hitting ability and problems catching the ball.
I think of Wak more as a great manager of people. I’m just not sure about his game management and decision making abilities yet.
I have read the interview and this isn't the conclusion I reached from it
Wak looks at the numbers and does his research, I think it’s a big stretch to try to label him as impulsive or ignorant of on-field production issues.
Rob was an organizational decision, not a managerial one.
Saying he uses his gut on some things doesn't mean that I'm saying
he’s impulsive or ignorant of what’s going on. I just think he’s confident in his opinions and might be willing to overlook some temporary problems if he believes in the future benefits of such a move.
As for Rob, I got the impression that it was Wak’s evaluation of Rob’s catching abilities that gave him the playing time last year. I’m sure others had influence and opinions but it’s ultimately Wak’s decision.
I read the interview in the Annual.
My statement was too simplistic.
My understanding is that Wak takes into account as much information as possible when making decisions. There are issues that go beyond numbers that he factors into the decision making process. Given what he has to work with, Wak will lean on his gut to make a decision but not in the same way that Hargrove and McLaren rely on theirs.
Lopez/Figgins
I’m all for the move considering it is just an EXPERIMENT at this point. It might pan out, it might not. The only thing I dont like is that if the move becomes permanent this year, than Figgins moves back to third base next year anyway if/when Ackley is ready and proves he can handle the position
by eastcoastmariner on Feb 24, 2010 2:37 PM PST reply actions
Is there that much downside?
Figgins would have played extensively at both positions so the transition would be easy for him. if Lopez turns into a legit 3B they can move him after ’10, or keep him and Figgins move to LF to make way for Ackley. Or Ackely can go to left.
The team has more options if Lopez at third works out, not less.
by lemonverbena on Feb 24, 2010 3:25 PM PST up reply actions
Increasing Lopez's trade value?
Is there any chance Z is having him work out there to try and make him look more versatile. I think it’s clear Z isn’t a big fan of Lopez and would like to move him, so maybe he’s trying to offset any fears about his D by being able to say he can play third. Is that something that even makes sense for a team to do?
It's clear? Where has that been made clear?
by Terminator X on Feb 24, 2010 3:49 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I'd like to know that one too
I know it’s clear that many M’s fans don’t like him. I think you may just be projecting.
Okay geez
I guess not clear, just going off the Liriano trade rumor, the fact Z hasn’t been a big fan of most of the players not obtained by him(all the prospects he’s traded, the near complete redo of the roster, not saying they werent the right thing to do(It definitely was), just saying its what he’s done), Lopez doesn’t have a great OBP or great defense which Z stresses. He just seems like a guy Z would want to trade. And we know Z likes to wheel and deal.
So more like I’m wondering if another reason for Lopez to play third is to increase his versitilty for trade value, since it seems maybe Z would move him.
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