Poz Likes M's in the West

He also lists Felix and Lee as the top two 1-2 in the division (not surprised), Figgins as the best third baseman, and Ichiro as the best right fielder, and Hunter over Gutierrez in center, which is, uh....

over 2 years ago JY 18 comments 0 recs |

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Hopefully the Mariners don't make everyone look stupid again this year.

Like they have been the past few years.

by chezbergrur on Feb 17, 2010 11:10 AM PST reply actions

I want to make everyone look stupid but in a good way.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://www.marinersminors.com/

by JY on Feb 17, 2010 11:12 AM PST up reply actions

I know exactly what you mean.

by chezbergrur on Feb 17, 2010 3:34 PM PST up reply actions

Slightly surprised that he puts Torii over Guti

But it’s an overall ranking, and they’re fairly close by WAR

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by Griffin Cooper on Feb 17, 2010 1:18 PM PST reply actions

If Gootch can start doing a little more against righties he becomes the better player

otherwise you give Hunter the edge on account of dingers.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 17, 2010 2:21 PM PST up reply actions

And it's hard not to regress Gutierrez

At least a little bit. It would be so awesome if last year is Gutierrez ‘real performance level — or, better yet, just a taste of where he’s headed now that he has a full year in CF and is moving into this prime offensive years with a now-healthy knee — but really we have no reason to believe that yet (well, except we’re fans and we’re supposed to Believe Big). Meanwhile Hunter has a lot of seasons in CF from which to judge his true talent level (even if he’s on the backside of his career arc). So I think that’s reasonable, especially for an outsider who hasn’t been seduced by watching Gutierrez play (or just by looking into his soulful eyes).

by wandergeist on Feb 17, 2010 2:40 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah, I didn't like that either! If he'd just listed it like the all-star ballot as OF, but straight up CF?

Like you say though, they’re pretty close.

by Kermit. on Feb 17, 2010 3:03 PM PST up reply actions

I was more than slightly surprised.

Poz usually seems like an incredibly smart guy, but I don’t see any way you can rank Hunter above Guti unless you’re basing it on archaic bullshit like gold glove awards.

Last season, Guti was worth 5.9 WAR according to fangraphs. Hunter was worth 3.8. Sure, it’s unlikely that Guti puts up the same gaudy UZR, but two whole wins worth? Color me skeptical.

The projections seem to agree, as well. The fans have Guti projected for 4.7 WAR next season, with Hunter at 3.3. Marcel, which doesn’t do defense, projects Hunter for a wOBA .02 higher than Guti over ~40 fewer PA. If I’m figuring it right (I’m not too good with the whole sabermetrics business yet), that should amount to just under 12 runs over the course of the season. If we project Guti for +15 with the glove and Hunter for +-0, it again comes out in Guti’s favor, though a lot closer this time. CHONE comes the closest to agreeing with Poz, but still has both of them projected for 2.5 WAR.

by I Lick Squirrels on Feb 17, 2010 8:04 PM PST up reply actions

He's been covering the AL Central for a long time, and during Hunter's heyday with the Twins.

So I’m cutting him some slack since it’s hard to let go, Hunter in his prime was so amazing. Plus he works his projections exactly in the same fashion I do so I love him for writing it up so well. He’s a nice mix, something old something new. Still though, Gootch is so smooth in CF…

by Kermit. on Feb 17, 2010 10:20 PM PST up reply actions