I decided to look at what our 2010 lineups would look like and the potency of our offense. The results were pretty expected but there were some neat facts along the way, which I shall share after the jump!
Our lineup is a toughie to figure out, due to the platooning going on. Using CHONE* projections, I created projected splits for 2010, like what was done by Matt Klaassen here. The one problem I ran into was projecting the splits of Figgins, Bradley, and Bard, as I'm unsure of how to regress switch hitter splits. If anyone has knowledge on how to do so, I'll fix their splits, but as of now I just left the splits unregressed. Stats used are from 2002-2009, when platoon splits are available on Fangraphs.
*I used CHONE for everyone but Ichiro and Ken Griffey Jr. If this isn't scientific, oh well. I used Ichiro's wOBA from 2002-2009 as a projection for 2010 because projection systems can't figure out Ichiro and I used Marcel for Griffey because I don't see him falling off a cliff like CHONE does.
So, fun facts before delving into the lineups:
- The average platoon split for right handed batters is 6.11% and the average platoon split for left handed batters is 8.6%. This number is given by (OwOBA-SwOBA)/CwOBA, where OwOBA is wOBA while facing opposite handed pitchers, SwoBA is wOBA facing same handed pitchers, and CwOBA is the wOBA of the player between 2002-2009.
- Ichiro has had a negative platoon split over his career, with a .365 wOBA against lefties and a .342 wOBA against righties. Without regression, that's a -6.596% split Regressed, it becomes a -0.984% split, so there seems to be pretty good evidence that Ichiro is better against left handed pitchers than right handed pitchers, even if only by a slight amount.
- Oddly enough, Ryan Langerhans also has an observed negative platoon split, sporting a -8.03% split, good for a .334 wOBA against lefties and a .309 wOBA against righties. This is over a very very small amount of PA, so his regressed split is 5.66%.
- Franklin Gutierrez had the largest unregressed platoon split, at a staggering 21.98%. His wOBA against lefties is .369 and his wOBA against right handed pitchers is .298. This was done in a relatively small amount of plate appearances, and so regressed it becomes an 8.981% split. This shows just how strong regression is for platoon splits.
- Milton Bradley has an observed 10.26% split, in which he hits left handed pitchers much better than right handed pitchers. Chone Figgins has an observed 10.029% split, in which he hits right handed pitchers much better than left handed pitchers. While switch hitters seem to give off the image of being immune to platoon splits, Milton Bradley has been essentially a right handed batter over his career and Chone Figgins has essentially been a left handed batter.
- Bradley's expected wOBA against right handed pitchers is .343. Griffey's expected wOBA against right handed pitchers is .342.
All right, onto the lineups! Facing left handed pitchers, we will most likely see these characters (in no particular order):
And facing right handed pitchers:
I don't know the proportion of left handed pitchers to right handed pitchers in the AL, so I decided to use the Ichiro's LHPPA/TotalPA as an approximation, which I think is probably close. This yields 29.1% left handed pitchers and 70.9% right handed pitchers. Using this, we get that the Mariners offense in 2010 will have a .326 wOBA, against a league average of around .330. So our offense is slightly below average. Of course, the right handed pitcher line up will not only face right handed pitchers this year and the left handed pitcher line up will not only face left handed pitchers, so these numbers are not exact projections. Substituting in Bard or putting Bradley in the field instead of Langerhans or using Hannahan instead of Wilson all create very minor changes.
And here are the projected splits: