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Why our Front Office is awesome: Tony Blengino

This would be a nice headline for a series.  Unfortunately, all I'm here to do is point out an interview that Larry Stone conducted with Tony Blengino several weeks ago that he's just now springing upon us.

Tony Blengino on how the Mariners use statistics

Here's a snippet:

What stat do you use to determine if a player is average?: Wins above replacement is a good barometer. And within that you can look at the defensive aspect, the offensive aspect. You don't need 250 homers to have a winning team, but you might need to hit more than 50. You just need to make sure you're not too far below average in any given area. Last year, at the end of the day, the reason we were not a playoff club, or at the end of the day in the running to be a playoff club in the latter days of the season, is because our offense was well below that level. We think we made some moves in the offseason to raise our offense up to the point where now we can compete."


As impressive as this off-season has been, nothing gets me going like knowing that our very own Front Office Engine is powered by the same analysis techniques, values, and ideals as the hard-working folks of USSM, LL, FanGraphs, THT, and a host of other sites that focus on statistical analysis.

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Comments

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I love the FO and everything

but if I ever got a chance to spend a few days with the FO, by the end of the day I would end-up smacking someone for saying that phrase so many times.

by mark sobba on Feb 11, 2010 9:46 PM PST up reply actions  

My favorite bit is on the one hand you've Tony Blengino with all this analysis.

On the other is GMZ with the tried and true quotes, he’s a gamer, team player, etc. Nice balance, something for everybody.

by Kermit. on Feb 11, 2010 9:49 PM PST up reply actions  

"Everyone says this FO doesn't say anything" and "Jack Z never tells you what he is really thinking"

Really everyone needs to listen to the actual words they are saying. True they are not going to say “We want a left handed sock”, unless they have googly eyes already glued on, but they do say a ton of stuff with what they avoid saying and small hints in throw away sentances.

Yeah they do form a nice team in taking a different side and giving a little bit to everyone listening.

by mark sobba on Feb 11, 2010 9:56 PM PST up reply actions  

A friend of mine got to meet Jack Z for this radio contest this week.

While everyone was meeting Jack someone asked the question “How were you able to trade Silva?”

Jack Z busted up laughing and said “sometimes we are very fortunate”, then turned around and “I really hope that didn’t go on the radio”.

Jack Z is awesome.

by d0nkey on Feb 12, 2010 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd just introduce a tax

Every time you say it. Maybe give them one free one each day, but after that — wham!

I’d be rich! In front-office terms, anyway.

by wandergeist on Feb 18, 2010 9:41 AM PST up reply actions  

Need more offense

Not exactly a revelation. Don’t you think people said the same thing 50 years ago?

by JetSam on Feb 11, 2010 9:31 PM PST reply actions  

Sure

Back in the 60s assistant GMs were citing WAR all the time. It’s a wonder that Blengino ever has a job, what with being 50 years behind the times.

by Graham MacAree on Feb 11, 2010 9:41 PM PST up reply actions  

And 50 years ago they were also saying …

… we need to get more athletic
… we need to cover more ground on defense
… we need to put the ball in play more
… we need to make the other pitcher work more
… we need to hit more home runs
… we need to get on base more
… we need to work the count better
… we need to catch more balls
… we need to hit more home runs
… we need to do the little things
… we need better pitching
… we need better defense
… we need better hitting
… we need to get younger
… we need to get more veteran leadership
… we need to get in better condition
… we need to be more aggressive on the bases
… we need to make fewer outs on the bases

+++++++

So you could take anything similar that Blengino said and assert that people said the same thing 50 years ago.

Now had Blengino said the team needed more green chihuahuas, that would have been something new. But, of course, he didn’t say that.

by Steve Nelson on Feb 12, 2010 12:13 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

It's a nice piece

but honestly he doesn’t go into much we hadn’t already heard from them.

I mean, uh, whooooooooo.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 11, 2010 9:55 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah, it's the medium, not the message

This is the same stuff Blengino has been saying as part of his “Stat of the Week” just about every week on 710’s “Hot Stove League” (hey, it’s Wednesday, is that on tonight or are they on hiatus while they move to AZ? Need to check). In fact he’s gone into this in much more detail on that venue. And of course he talked about it to us at both Benaroya and last year at the Library.

But this is in the newspaper, for an audience of people who still read the newspaper (guys like my Dad, who has been following baseball for over sixty years but who has never touched a computer and thinks a blog is one of the bad guys in Lord of the Rings).

by wandergeist on Feb 17, 2010 1:45 PM PST up reply actions  

How many teams in baseball have someone from the front office doing a "stat of the week" on a mainstream media show?

Not only are the Mariners using this information, they are trying to educate the broader fan base.

Last season you started to see snippets and references to some of the newer stats coming from the mouths of the broadcast team. That has to be a reflection of the front office, quite likely generated by off-the-record conversations with the broadcasters giving them information about certain players.

I think they are making efforts to get the fans on board with what they are doing and why they are doing it. So when they make a move that by conventional terms is a “head-scratcher”, there will be folks out there who will know that there was a rationale even if those same fans can’t remember what that rationale is.

by Steve Nelson on Feb 11, 2010 10:22 PM PST reply actions  

So, like Kansas City they're trying to get fans to buy into The Process.

Difference being, they take the time to show us what The Process is and why it works. I love this team and this front office.

by BrianL on Feb 11, 2010 10:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I stopped Mr. Blengino at fanfest and thanked him for doing the "stat of the week". He said it was a lot of fun and glad to do it.

And I am very glad Blengino does it so many we can stop determaining players by poor, worthless, out of date measurements and instead things that are closer to being helpful to understanding what is going on.

by mark sobba on Feb 12, 2010 2:31 AM PST up reply actions  

It's in the best interest of the FO to reach out and educate the fans.

Look at what happened in LA when the media and fans turned against the stat-head FO, even though the FO had been doing a decent job. Now obviously Seattle and LA are different markets entirely, however I am sure that Jack and his gang decided in advance that the best way to gain acceptance for their radical new ways [compared to Bavasi] other than winning, is to educate and gain understanding from the masses. Everything they do – whether that be speaking of RZR on FSN, Blengino doing his stat of the week, Jack going to the USSM meet – is calculated towards achieving this aim.

by EnglishMariner on Feb 12, 2010 3:53 AM PST up reply actions  

They're really doing a brilliant job of it-

because while educating fans, they’re still justifying signings publicly using old-school lingo, using phrases like “gamer” and “leadership” and “veteran,” but then quietly leaking in more advanced justification. If you take the way Zduriencik publicly speaks on player acquisition, there’d be a 99% chance Mike Sweeney makes the team again, even though that’s definitely not the case.

This works a ton better than the DePodesta in LA way of saying “I’m a math nerd and my logic is correct so we signed player X”

Determined, Jonesing Commentor

by Corco on Feb 13, 2010 11:06 PM PST up reply actions  

But it's not just "lingo"

Zduriencik came up through the scouts, and he still employs very good “old” ones like McNamara and Fusco. They’re not just “using the lingo” when they talk about “make-up” when they’re evaluating players. But they’re not going to let that blind them to the other aspects that Blengino is ferreting out. The reason Zduriencik has been so successful (at least in the limited sample so far) is that he really is bridging both worlds. He really does believe in getting as many points of view as he can to make the best possible decisions. So when he introduces a new signing it’s not just optics or window dressing or “lingo” if he mentions “leadership” — that may not be why they signing the guy, but on a day when you’re supposed to talk up all the positive traits of your new acquisition, that definitely is one they can talk about. And they really do believe in it — they’re just smart enough to realize that a declining player’s “veteranship” can not somehow make up for his bad numbers.

They’re pretty astute about that aspect, too. I was against the Griffey signing from the start, but based on comments that people like Bradley and Figgins have made, there may be more to it than good PR for the ownership and nostalgia and jersey sales among the fans. It really seems like Griffey’s presence may be paying off in subtle ways when signing other players — players who are excited to share a clubhouse with him, players who might be swayed to take an offer from the M’s a little more seriously, and possibly in players who might be a little less of a risk with Griffey as a teammate (we’ll see on that last point, I guess, and it’ll be hard to tell compared to what Bradley might have done elsewhere). Note that I’m not saying we’ll see a difference in on-field performance, just that having Griffey in their pocket might make the performance of the front office a little better, or at least their jobs a little easier, since it’s one more non-monetary perk they can dangle.

But I agree with the larger point: the FO is trying to bring the fans along in everything they’re doing. And that I think is part of their whole effort to make the Mariners a team players want to play for. Having Griffey in the clubhouse is part of that. Building a foundation by locking up young, high-performing players like Gutierrez and Felix is part of that. Doing right by past players (by, for example, inviting The Big Unit to throw out the first pitch) is part of that. And having smart, educated fans is part of that too.

by wandergeist on Feb 17, 2010 2:19 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

They clearly do attach importance to matters such as character and chemistry.

They’ve talked frequently about how they felt they needed to change the clubhouse atmosphere after the 2008 season. The negativity and bad feelings in the clubhouse after the 2008 season were clear, and I think we’re fools if we try to persuade ourselves that it didn’t affect team performance and wasn’t something that needed to be specifically addressed. Had they failed to do so, it would have been like the elephant in the living room that no one talks about.

I think it’s also clear that when Zduriencik came in, he believed that was a matter that needed to addressed specifically and directly. That’s been mentioned before, and Wakamatsu’s comments yesterday (reported in todays AZ reports) hit that point specifically.

Further, I believe they considered that matter so significant that they were even willing to sacrifice some talent on the roster to help attain that end. That’s the only reason why Sweeney made the team last year. From everything we know about Zduriencik’s crew, it would be asinine to think that they believed a roster with Sweeney was the most talented roster they could assemble.

My impression is that now they believe they have now dealt with those matters and can turn their attention elsewhere. Sweeney isn’t going to make the team, but I wouldn’t be the least surprised to see him announce his retirement and take a position within the organization somewhere.

by Steve Nelson on Feb 18, 2010 9:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Shannon is so great on that show

She keeps everything just barely under control but she’s obviously having fun with it. She’s like that really cool older sister who keeps coming home from college with songs by awesome new bands.

by wandergeist on Feb 17, 2010 1:49 PM PST up reply actions  

heh.

“What I find interesting is Blengino still finds meaning in ERA where other sabercats seems to totally demise it. "

by msb on Feb 12, 2010 8:07 AM PST reply actions  

The beautiful thing is...

As Corco said above, even fans like Savannah are going to get an education in more advanced stats, because of the way this FO communicates. So yeah, sure, we can roll our eyes at the cherry-picking done here, but that cherry-picking means that Savannah (and similar fans) are buying into the system without even realizing they’re doing it.

by Dave Clapper on Feb 15, 2010 11:03 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Well, ERA does have value ...

… as a retrospective measure.

It indicates, for example, how well Washburn pitched for the Mariners last season. It helps us assess how much added value Cliff Lee would bring to the roster, because to a certain extent he is simply replacing the excellent production that the Mariners received last year.

As a retrospective measure, it is also useful in comparing actual performance with predicted performance indicated by other assessment methods. That helps us quantify the uncertainty in those predictions.

+++++

So I think ERA is far from useless. It just nearly useless as a predictive tool.

by Steve Nelson on Feb 18, 2010 9:57 AM PST up reply actions  

This just isn't true
It indicates, for example, how well Washburn pitched for the Mariners last season.

It does no such thing. ERA indicates how many earned runs were given up by a certain combination of pitcher and defence.

by Graham MacAree on Feb 18, 2010 10:19 AM PST up reply actions  

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