On The Ryan Garko Addition
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 1, 2010 4:04 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
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PrintTo make room for Ryan Garko on the 40-man roster, Gaby Hernandez was designated for assignment. Which is just as well, seeing as Gaby Hernandez isn't legally permitted to work for another three years.
Anyhoo, while the exact roster implications of this move aren't yet clear, our best guess is that the bulk of Garko's duty will come as the right-handed half of a platoon at first base. He'll get some time at DH, he'll make some pinch-hit appearances, and he may even spend a few innings behind the plate showing Rob Johnson where the ball's supposed to go, but first base is the obvious fit, as Casey Kotchman is a lefty who has enough trouble hitting righties.
On the surface, it's a nice upgrade. Kotchman comes in with a career .277/.334/.388 line against southpaws. Garko, meanwhile, checks in at .313/.392/.495. That's a huge boost in OBP and a huger boost in SLG, and with a name like "Garko", you know this guy can hit the crap out of the ball when he gets into one. He's a threat to go for extra bases whenever he steps in, and on a team like this, a lot of people have perceived that as a critical need.
You have to apply some regression, though. By hand, Garko's wOBA platoon split is .341 vs. righties and .388 vs. lefties. That's a ratio of 1.14, against a league-average ratio of 1.05. I could go in depth here if I wanted to, but I don't, so you should just trust me and the good fellows at The Book Blog here when I tell you that platoon splits that wide tend to regress pretty hard. If you go through all the math - and, again, just trust me - you come out with the following "true" split approximations:
Garko vs. RHP: .347
Garko vs. LHP: .371
Kotchman vs. RHP: .339
Kotchman vs. LHP: .318
Note that these are splits based on career batting data and do not account for 2010 projections. Conveniently, however, both Garko and Kotchman are projected to perform pretty close to their career levels. Science!
Right there, you can see the appeal of a platoon. Even after regression, we're still talking about a guy who we can expect to post a wOBA about 50 points better against left-handed pitchers. 50 points of wOBA are a lot of points. It's equal to about 25-30 runs over a full season, and about ten runs over a full season against lefties.
But there are a few things to remember. First of all, no platoon works perfectly. Even with Garko around, Kotchman will still end up getting some ABs against lefties, just as Garko will still end up getting some ABs against righties. And second of all, Kotchman is an excellent defensive first baseman, while Garko is not. Garko isn't a disaster in the field, but he's probably worth around -5 runs or so, while Kotchman comes in around +5 to +10. The defensive gap, naturally, eats away at some of the platoon difference. So while Garko can mash a little bit against southpaws, the platoon advantage isn't as broad as the wOBAs would suggest, as you still have to take defense into account.
Does that make this a bad deal? No, not at all. Garko's cheap. He's going to cost this team half a million dollars, and as long as he's around, he's going to provide a decent platoon bat and a little power off the bench. Assuming this means the team goes with a six-man bullpen - and, honestly, I still think that's the most likely scenario here - he gives Wak some more offensive flexibility, which is never a bad thing. Garko makes this team better by a handful of runs. But that's all we're talking about, here. A handful of runs. It's just hard to squeeze that much out of the right-handed half of a platoon, and while Garko will help, he won't help a whole lot. While it's always nice to upgrade, particularly for a team in our current situation, this is probably one of those moves that's going to have a bigger impact on fan peception than it will on the actual team.
Note: if we still end up going with a seven-man bullpen and we have to jettison, say, Ryan Langerhans, then I don't like as much.
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Replacing a guy who "plays" catcher full time with a guy who "could" play if needed would be a bad idea
Just speaking from the physical side of things, if a player is used to playing first base it’s okay to place him behind the plate in a few situations, but trying to get him to switch fully from an infield position to catcher is going to take a huge toll on their body and abilities. The ability to catch with relative success takes a lot of practice and fine tuning of skills. The skill-set used at firstbase is vastly different from that at catcher, minus the whole catch the ball-throw the ball part. You usually see the move the opposite way though, a guy going from catcher to first due to physical issues (knees being the most likely)
I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ
I think ToddK was joking.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Garko was a catcher his whole career pre-major leagues, though.
He only got moved off of the position because Victor Martinez was blocking him. Not to say that it would be an easy thing for him to do, but it would certainly be easier than trying to covert someone who had never caught for any significant time before.
by I Lick Squirrels on Feb 1, 2010 11:30 PM PST up reply actions
And he says he's bringing his gear to ST
Planning on getting some practice in. Don’t know how serious that actually is, but it sounds like it could be more than just a “what if both catchers are hurt” kind of thing.
Terry Steinbach...
I’ve heard of others but his was the first name that popped into my head, he was moved from 3B to catcher… It seemed to workout pretty good too… He was a good hitter and one of the best catchers of the 80s, and early 90s… Just a thought… It’s also not really the same thing since he was a catcher until 2007… So it’s only been 3 years since he was full-time at the position, and he played catcher and with great success for all of his high school and college years… Not saying it would happen, but I wouldn’t just throw it out there as being entirely impossible….
Oh yeah, Carlos Santana (Indians), one of the best prospects in baseball, was a 3B also, and so was Max Ramirez (Rangers), so going from the infield to catcher DOES happen…But if he did it, they would do it slowly, it would solely be to backup one of the young guys, not to start, and he would get a ton of at bats at other positions, plus one of the other young guys would have to get traded…
Yes, I saw it was all a joke, but just to give some comparative analysis to digest…
Side note: Terry Steinbach was moved to catcher to make room for Mark McGwire at 3B (where he was drafted), they then moved McGwire to 1B to keep Carney Lansford at 3B… McGwire was originally a 3B because his teammate when he was younger… 1B HOF canidate Will Clark… Yeah, they were on the same team and McGwire took 3B to make room for the left-handed thrower in the infield… Sometimes you move people around for the good of the team, and let them figure it out… It’s not like they aren’t good athletes…
by RosterbatorExtraordinaire on Feb 3, 2010 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
Craig Biggio from 2B to catcher...
Thought of another one… The old rust trap still works, but it takes a little longer than it used to… Biggio was converted BACK to 2B for the younger guys out there… He originally was a 2B, moved to catcher, and then moved BACK to 2B when he was older… Just thought some clarification was in order…
by RosterbatorExtraordinaire on Feb 3, 2010 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
I honestly don't think he was brought in to specifically platoon with Kotchman
I think he’ll get time at 1B, but I see him as more of a bench option with some games against tough lefties at 1B. You could call it less of a split platoon than you would expect.
But Jeff Kingston was quoted over the woekend
saying the M’s were still looking for “a 1B/DH RH bat” which everybody interpreted to mean that a deal was done and would be announced as soon as Zduriencik got back. Today we get Garko.
So unless you think
(1) There’s another position player signing imminent, and that guy is going to be the 1B/DH RH bat, or
(2) Jeff Kingston was confused or simply lying about Garko’s intended role, or
(3) He was talking about a “type” of player and not his intended usage, which would be kind of odd (why would you look for a type and then not use him in the way those types get used?)
It seems like he’ll get used as a RH 1B/DH. Yes, he may do a lot of PH off the bench, and we’ll probably see a lot of shuffling around (especially with all the LF/DH guys), but what do you expect Wakamatsu to write on his lineup card when the Mariners are facing a lefty starting pitcher with big splits and he wants a lot of RH bats in the lineup?
Kotchman Insurance
In addition to serving as insurance for the injury risks Griffey and Bradley (and to a lesser extent, Byrnes), Garko also serves as insurance in case Kotchman struggles at the plate like he did last year. CHONE projects Garko at + 6 (+ 8 bat, -2 glove) and Kotchman at + 7 (+1 bat, +6 glove). Even if Garko’s defensive projection is probably a bit generous, Kotchman and Garko are not too far apart in terms of value. While below what you would want considering the positional adjustment, Garko at 347 wOBA against RHP is okay. It is better to have Garko now than giving up prospects for a comparable bat during the season.
I think you might have the split numbers wrong
Garko’s splits are better than Kotchman’s for LHP and RHP?
Not that its totally bad
but our GM might have an addiction to signing players at bargain prices. He just can’t stop himself from signing players to clearance prices.
Eh?
Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
Gay Bee?
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
by JAH on Feb 1, 2010 7:17 PM PST up reply actions
That's a female
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 1, 2010 9:28 PM PST up reply actions
So its a Lesbeein?
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
by JAH on Feb 1, 2010 9:32 PM PST up reply actions 6 recs
It's hard out there for a pimp
The tune is almost done, only a couple of chairs left open, who gets left standing in the Damon Duncecap of Shame?
Dear Mariners
Congratulations on your acquisition of Ryan Garko. Unfortunately, I must inform you of your folly; Garko is in fact a terrible player, and not worth a roster spot even if he were paying you $550K, much less the other way around. In a whole 127 at-bats as a Giant last year, Ryan hit .235/.307/.330, which, as any of the longest-tenured general managers in baseball will tell you, entirely negates his career line of .279/.351/.441 (including the 127 ABs). Ryan is also a clubhouse cancer according to this psychic that came to the park one day, much like another player you recently acquired, Milton Bradley. And if you’re a former catcher who is now managing, you know all about how clubhouse cancers infect the team with actual cancer, destroying your whole season in the process. Their on-field accomplishments are worthless, because they are big jerks. Ryan is not even worth trying to trade, because everyone can see how obviously terrible he is, both at baseball and as a person. Had I known this in July, I would not have traded my #9 prospect, Scott Barnes, a young left-handed starter, for a two-month rental that I was simply going to DFA after the season to make room for clutch RBI machines with veteran grit, gamer savvy, and proven major league experience; my #10 prospect would have sufficed. Even on a team as offensively-challenged as this, with no good option at first base, Garko’s 127 ABs prove he has nothing to contribute. While I wish you success in your further endeavors, your recent signing of Ryan Garko saddens me; I had sincerely hoped that the horrible, horrible thing that is Ryan Garko would be forever banished from the noble game of baseball before he realizes his fate as the son of Satan and heralds the apocalpyse.
Sincerely,
Brian Sabean and Bruce Bochy
PS: Fuck Ryan Garko.
by quincy0191 on Feb 1, 2010 6:42 PM PST reply actions 19 recs
I remember when this was us.
Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
Love it
The queue for the Jack Z Envy Club is over there, where the New York Mets are currently being processed
I was going to come and say something along these lines
But this was about 2948x better than whatever I was going to say.
Dammit.
Whatever happened to acquiring players with the intent of filling specific roles?
Bavasi’s way may have been stupid, but the OCD kid in me felt much more comfortable with it
Determined, Jonesing Commentor
Right handed bench bat/platoon 1B! It's just like Greg Colbrunn!
(only cheaper and not costing a 1st round draft pick).
It’s not like any of the guys acquired for specific roles actually, you know, DID those roles.
Or like Ben Broussard!!!!
And we can surrender a draft pick in the process, who turns out to be Conor Jackson.
And for the outfield we can sign the totally awesome Quinton McCracken. And when McCracken goes up in smoke we can make a deal for ….. Jolbert Cabrera!!!!!!
by Steve Nelson on Feb 2, 2010 12:52 PM PST up reply actions
Colbrunn was a righty, which is why I went with him...
But yes, Quinton McCracken would add defensive flexibility as well as a base-running threat to pair with Gookie Dawkins.
I fucking hate Jolbert Cabrera.
Seriously, fuck him.
by I Lick Squirrels on Feb 2, 2010 1:35 PM PST up reply actions
The lineup vs LHP/RHP
So it looks like this eh?
C-Johnson/Moore
1b-vL Garko, vR Kotchman
2b-Lopez
ss-Jk. Wilson
3b-Figgins
inf backups-Hanrahan & Josh W.
lf-vL Byrnes, vR Bradley/Langerhans
cf-FGut
rf-Ichiro!
DH-vL Bradley, vRH Griffey/Bradley
That’s 13 players total. I assume they will be carrying 12 pitchers.
I’m hopeful Saunders will replace Langerhans by mid-season and push Bradley to the DH spot more often.
Is this accurate?
Actually its 14.
I Josh Wilson waits in AAA then that would be 13.
So if you have 14 then you have one too many so who do you get rid of
That’s what everybody is worried about. There isn’t a clear person you get rid of.
by Edgar for Pres on Feb 1, 2010 9:44 PM PST up reply actions
Which will be in the months of...
May, June, July and August. You can set you’re watch to web gems, injuries and a sub .310 wOBA when it comes to Jack Wilson.
Not alot of room for Day-to-Day injuries
I hope when one Wilson gets hurt, he is quickly put on the shelf for another
by crushingyourhead on Feb 1, 2010 7:34 PM PST up reply actions
I think we're better off not thinking of it as "this is the lineup"
Because you’re not likely to see any one lineup in very many games this year. It’s Wak’s way and the roster is set up so he can do that.
by nathaniel dawson on Feb 1, 2010 7:32 PM PST up reply actions
11 Man Lip Service*
Now it appears that Garko will play some first base and take some DH at-bats away from Milton Bradley, which could make it necessary for the Mariners to keep a reserve outfielder, most likely Ryan Langerhans, on the roster in addition to the likely starters against left-handers: newly acquired Eric Byrnes, Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro Suzuki.
Since the team also has Ken Griffey Jr. as a part-time DH and occasional outfielder and will carry two catchers and an infield that consists of Garko, Kotchman, second baseman Jose Lopez, shortstop Jack Wilson, third baseman Chone Figgins and utility man Jack Hannahan (or Matt Tuiasosopo), there would only be room for 11 pitchers.
“That’s the way it slots out right now, but you just don’t know,” Wakamatsu said. "So many things can happen in Spring Training, and you’d always rather deal from a position of strength than one of weakness. As manager you can never have too many. It’s a good problem to have.
* If that’s not a gay porn title, it should be.
The roster...
Ichiro RF Ichiro RF
Figgins 3B Figgins 3B
Gutierrez CF Gutierrez CF
Bradley LF Bradley DH
Griffey DH Garko 1B
Lopez 2B Lopez 2B
Kotchman 1B Byrnes LF
Johnson C Johnson C
Ja. Wilson SS Ja. Wilson SS
Moore C
Hannahan IF
Garko/Kotchman 1B/DH
Griffey/Byrnes DH/OF
If we carry another bench player it has to be someone that can backup the infield… Forget what players WANT, in an emergency or for a couple days without using the DL, the guys can cover these positions like this…
OF: Ichiro, Gutierrez, Bradley, Byrnes, Figgins, Griffey (corners only), Garko (corners only — MAYBE, I don’t like it one bit though)
3B: Figgins, Lopez, Garko (it’s a stretch and definitely not for more than a couple innings to finish a game), Johnson/Moore (this is an ugly, ugly option, and that I am writing it at all, only underlines my point)
SS: Ja. Wilson, Figgins, Hannahan (ugly option), Lopez (slapping forehead)
2B: Lopez, Ja. Wilson, Figgins, Hannahan, Garko (yeah, throw this in the fuck are you serious category, like playing a catcher at 3B)
1B: Kotchman, Garko, Hannahan, Lopez, Moore, Johnson, Griffey (MAYBE if desperate)
C: Johnson, Moore, Garko
CLEARLY we need an infielder…
Basically think of it like this…
If we add an outfielder it doesn’t make it possible to move Bradley, Byrnes, Gutierrez, Ichiro, or Griffey to the infield, it just pads the depth…
If we add an infielder it gives us a solid option for SS when Figgins or Wilson get their 3 day injury, it makes it so we never are forced to start Hannahan with any type of consistency, and if we need someone to start for Gutierrez for a couple days like last year, we could have moved Figgins to CF or Byrnes to CF with Figgins going to LF, whatever makes you happy, but the point is that we need someone else to backup the infield to use that flexibility… End of the day, an extra infielder is integral… When our infield depth chart starts with moving another starter around the infield, it’s not pretty…
I’d rather have Tuiasosopo on the roster in the 5th bench spot… He bats righty, making him a good match with Hannahan, he’s athletic, so he could learn corner outfield quickly and be a good backup option in the infield… But most importantly, if we need an outfielder for two days, they can move Figgins there and start Tuiasosopo or Hannahan at 3B, and the team doesn’t look like crap on the bench.
I mean seriously, there is no way Langerhans makes the team in front of an infielder. SERIOUSLY.
As for my pick… Alfredo Amezaga would have been awesome but he was signed to a minor league deal for $650K by the Dodgers… Way to go Jack Z. plays all 7 positions besides catcher and pitcher… Geez, how’d you miss that, Jack?
by RosterbatorExtraordinaire on Feb 3, 2010 2:15 PM PST reply actions
Double Got It...
You both like Hannahan! Seriously! I seriously remember when Wilson was injured day-to-day and they refused to DL him, so we had Jo. Wilson sub for him… Well, remember the mess we had with Beltre at 3B and Wilson at SS, when Beltre caught the ball with his man junk? Yeah, I’d rather not duplicate those two weeks… It’s bad enough that Hannahan is replacement level, but we should have really found a better backup… Amezaga got $650K with $800K in incentives on a MINOR LEAGUE deal… Come on, we couldn’t offer him $700K to be our super-sub? Sure he hits like Josh Wilson, but he’s a stud defender at almost every position, AND he’s an ex-Angel… That’s worth .2 WAR in Jack Z.’s eyes!
by RosterbatorExtraordinaire on Feb 3, 2010 7:57 PM PST up reply actions
Got it...
You like Hannahan, the problem is that if Figgins and Wilson both miss a few days, but don’t need time on the DL, you either start Garko/Johnson/Moore at 3B and Hannahan at SS, or you have to move someone to AAA… If you have Langerhans on the team in the OF, then either you carry 10 pitchers, or you send down an outfielder to make room for the guy… Otherwise we are paying $14MM for Figgins and Wilson to go on the DL every time they bust a finger or a stain a muscle… That’s poor planning and just sucks… I like Hannahan too, but in a conservative role, not where he is our first and last line of defense against injuries to the infield!
by RosterbatorExtraordinaire on Feb 3, 2010 7:53 PM PST up reply actions
Figgins isn't really a health risk
The team will have to be pretty vigilant about DL’ing Wilson if they think he’ll have to miss even just a little time, but seriously, Hannahan’s not a problem. I’d like a little more versatility, too, but this isn’t a big deal.
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 3, 2010 8:17 PM PST up reply actions
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