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The Adrian Gonzalez Trade And My Offseason Nightmare

As you've probably heard by now, the Red Sox are on the verge of trading for Adrian Gonzalez and signing him to a long-term contract extension. The trade, on its own, isn't particularly surprising - the Red Sox have been after Gonzalez for a couple years, now, and he wasn't about to re-sign with San Diego - and, in isolation, it isn't even that upsetting. However, when viewed in a greater context, holy crap could this be the worst offseason ever.

Let's run down some of the big names, and discuss their situations a little bit:

Adrian Gonzalez: he's going to Boston, and he's going to play there for a while.

Adrian Beltre: he no longer has a place in Boston, with Gonzalez at first and Kevin Youkilis sliding over to third, but his hottest suitor has been the A's, with the Angels also involved.

Jayson Werth: the Red Sox are highly interested in Werth, and still have the budget room to sign him, even after getting Gonzalez.

Carl Crawford: Crawford's most active suitors - the Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels.

Cliff Lee: that the Nationals think they have a chance is precious, as Lee will either return to the Rangers or join CC Sabathia at the front for the Yankees.

Zack Greinke: while the Royals may not end up trading Greinke this winter, the Rangers are reportedly trying to get him, regardless of what happens with Lee.

Rafael Soriano: arguably the best reliever available has reportedly been identified as a top Angels priority.

Seven players, seven elite-level talents, all of which are strongly connected to either the Yankees, the Red Sox, the Angels, the Rangers, or the A's. In other words, seven elite-level talents, all of which are strongly connected to either my least favorite teams in baseball, or direct division rivals of the Mariners. The Mariners, by the way, aren't expected to do much of anything, and their sexiest move may end up being the re-signing of Erik Bedard.

I know that nothing in baseball is guaranteed. I know that the winning teams may end up regretting the prices they'll pay for each of the players above. But while I get that a lot of star players shift around every offseason, I'm really not wild about those star players shifting around in such a way as to make my baseball experience less pleasant. I want the Mariners to win. If the Mariners can't win, then I want some underdogs from other divisions to succeed. This offseason is on course to make both those things way less likely.

I'll let the winter play out as it will, but I'm preparing myself to hate it.

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Comments

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This is why things hibernate.

This winter was destined to be the perfect storm of sad-bad from the very beginning. It’s going to be really, really sad, and really, really bad.

by Pete_ on Dec 4, 2010 4:32 PM PST reply actions  

What bothers me even more is that three of those seven names are former Mariners.

And we were connected to Gonzalez and Crawford in the past, too. Damn did we make a lot of bad decisions over the last decade.

by katal on Dec 4, 2010 4:53 PM PST reply actions  

Umm, I wouldn't really classify and of those three as regretable mistakes

Lee we got as a one year rental, we failed miserably and traded him midway for a good package

Beltre played out his contract, he didn’t perform offensively as hoped… but still was not a sunk cost at all, we had the option of resigning him last year or still this year, but the front office is going a different direction.

I wasn’t a huge follower of baseball when Soriano was around, but what I remember as a casual fan was a lot of potential and a lot of trips to the dl. Maybe we let this talent “get away”, but I’m not one to fret over lost bullpen talent.

What's the deal with corn nuts?

by BaronVonBullshit on Dec 4, 2010 5:03 PM PST up reply actions  

The Soriano trade was indefensible at the time, as well as in hindsight.

He was traded away because the front office did not like his personality, as well as because Bill Bavasi was willing to overpay in order to leave the 2006-07 winter meetings with a starting pitching acquisition. He went on to be awesome for Atlanta and Tampa Bay. It sucks that we lost him.

“The front office is going in a different direction” does not explain why we let Beltre go; it’s only a statement indicating that we chose not to resign him. He performed well for Seattle during his time with the team. All the same, Beltre was a fan favorite at Lookout Landing and it was not fun watching him with a Red Sox uniform on, and it will not be fun watching him celebrate his big hits with his Anaheim teammates in 2011.

You’re right, we did receive a good package for Cliff Lee. That said, it’s unfortunate to think back to last spring, when he reportedly approached GMZ about an extension and was rebuffed.

Contrary to your own opinion, I do consider it regrettable that we did not keep Soriano, Beltre or Lee.

by katal on Dec 4, 2010 5:14 PM PST up reply actions  

To be honest, he really wasn’t all that awesome in ATL, he spent wayyyyyy to much time on the DL, this past season was the first in a while he’s been fully healthy.

by MO'toole on Dec 4, 2010 9:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Win values from Ramirez and Soriano, 2007-2010:

Ramirez: 0.2+0.5+0+N/A = 0.7
Soriano: 0.4+0.1+2.0+1.6=4.1

Salary for Ramirez and Soriano, 2007-2010:

Ramirez: 2.65+2.65+1.8+0=$7.1 million
Soriano: 1.2+2.65+6.35+7.25=$17.45 million

At a marginal value of four million per win, Soriano was worth $16.4 million, and so has underperformed his contract values by roughly $1 million. Ramirez, meanwhile, has been worth, in theory, $2.8 million and has underperformed his salary by $3.3 million. Even leading up to the trade, Ramirez had been worth 3.1 wins and Soriano 3.5, making Rafael marginally more valuable.

So he was bad in Atlanta with a +2 season in 2009? I have never done drugs, but if I’m gonna start I want whatever you’re smoking.

by harkening on Dec 4, 2010 10:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Do you see the word bad anywhere in my comment? All I said was he wasn’t all that awesome, how you get bad from that is beyond me…I want what you’re smoking since whatever you’re smoking makes you see things.

by MO'toole on Dec 5, 2010 12:01 AM PST up reply actions  

Obviously the team would be better with all three players still on the roster, and I'd love to have them all... I'm not saying otherwise

I guess what I was saying is that when people talk about “oh man, we used to have that guy and now he’s doing so good with another team! they always get better when they leave!” I think of young talent that is traded away before their prime.

Like I said I was only a casual fan during Soriano’s days and it sounds like he is one to be upset about losing. The other two however were brought in as established veterans, served their time, and left when we expected them to leave. I can’t really be as upset about those talents leaving.

What's the deal with corn nuts?

by BaronVonBullshit on Dec 4, 2010 11:39 PM PST up reply actions  

There was more anger on the Soriano trade itself than the fact that we were losing him.

We pretty much automatically lost the trade getting someone who’s max upside was perhaps a decent back-end starter. Then there’s the indirect fallout from the trade. We trade for HoRam, HoRam was bad but the team still contends, teams wants to upgrade pitching…..enter Carlos Silva….

by ThundaPC on Dec 5, 2010 10:25 AM PST up reply actions  

GO AHEAD!

Let everyone have everybody!

I’ll take my Josh Wilson and Adam Moore sandwich with a side of sweet potato shit.

That said, we all LOVED the offseason last year, and it didn’t really get us anything more than the aforementioned lunch—with Eric Byrnes garnish.

by Rick Banjo on Dec 4, 2010 6:55 PM PST reply actions   4 recs

But hey, Werth to Nats!

At least a new team is in the mix.

by truemsfan on Dec 5, 2010 5:21 PM PST reply actions  

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