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Around SBN: Win or Lose, Boston Celtics' New Big 3 Era A Success

David Aardsma And The Reliever Run

This is happening just like it does in fantasy drafts. Earlier in the offseason, we saw Jose Contreras and Joaquin Benoit get things started. More recently, J.J. Putz and Scott Downs found homes. But then, just in the last few days, Koji Uehara, J.P. Howell, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Kerry Wood, Randy Choate, Bobby Jenks, and Joel Peralta have all signed contracts as the reliever market has caught fire. Feeling like they don't want to get left out, everyone's trying to reach into the middle at once to grab what they can get.

What this means is that only now can you really expect to start hearing some whispers about David Aardsma. Everybody knows that Aardsma's available - presumably even Aardsma himself - and while the Winter Meetings passed by with nary a rumor, the reliever market wasn't yet what it is now. Now, teams are focused on relievers. Now, relievers are falling off the board. So now, Aardsma should start looking like more of an option.

It's not that there aren't still plenty of relievers left. Rafael Soriano's still out there. Brian Fuentes is still out there. Kevin Gregg, Grant Balfour, and Jon Rauch are still out there. But Aardsma's under team control for two years at a reasonable price, given his successful closing experience, so he's attractive. He and the Mariners should get some attention.

Whether they get enough attention has yet to be seen. If dealt, Aardsma isn't likely to bring back much more than a B-prospect and salary relief, and salary relief doesn't do the M's a whole lot of good in their current situation. It's possible that, if they don't get a worthwhile offer, the front office will opt to begin the season with Aardsma and look to move him in the middle, when they might have more leverage. But at least now they should be able to have some productive talks. That's something I doubt they could've done a few weeks ago.

We'll see how this develops, if this develops. It's unlikely that any Aardsma trade would be very exciting, but it would give the M's some flexibility, and this front office has been known to work wonders with a little flexibility. I know there's a rumor out there that the M's would just look to replace Aardsma with Gregg, but that doesn't make very much sense to me unless Gregg's willing to accept a one-year contract. Anyway! I'm losing my train of thought. David Aardsma. He could be traded. I imagine we'll find out soon.

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Comments

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Hypothetically speaking, which position would be best for this B level prospect to play?

Assuming this prospect is only a year or two away (totally arbitrary assumption), where would he help most? SS? LF? SP? C?

by silverbook on Dec 16, 2010 4:24 PM PST reply actions  

Lol. I vote C. If Moore doesn't work out, there's nothing in the pipeline.

SS- I like Ryan, we all know who the future is
LF- I like Saunders too, although I am 50-50 if he ever develops a decent bat. But Chavez is at least an option in a few years.

by silverbook on Dec 16, 2010 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Just a heads up, chatspeak is frowned upon here.

As far as prospects go, it seems like it’s usually best to go with the best available player and ignore position.

by BigR on Dec 16, 2010 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

SP - It's always hard to fill out five spots

RP – We’ll need someone to take Aardsma’s place. Maybe some young guy will surprise us
1B – What if Smoak fails? Do we want to trust Mike Carp?
2B – Ackley’s still new at the position, and may need to be shifted if he proves abominable
3B – Figgins. Hitting. It’s been a problem for him.
LF – Saunders needs to step up, and he may have difficulty stepping, given his long legs
CF – Guti’s WAR dropped, like, 4 WAR this year. If that trend continues, LOOK OUT
RF – Nah, we’re set here. Forever.

by yuniform on Dec 16, 2010 4:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Less than 20% chance Smoak fails

And most of that would be due to injury. He might just become average though, but that is still OK because he’ll be cheap for awhile. However, his minor league numbers, plate discipline, swing, decent contact rate and power add up to a very high probability of success. At least, that’s how I see it.

Ackley’s defense is interesting. I haven’t heard any definite reports about it, besides his defense being below average.

by silverbook on Dec 16, 2010 4:48 PM PST up reply actions  

In that case, I'd prefer it if the prospect we get back for Aardsma played second base

unfortunately, this regime doesn’t tolerate poor defensive players, so I would look for Ackley to be shown the door very quickly unless he makes a dramatic, dramatic improvement.

by seattlebruin on Dec 16, 2010 4:50 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't see Ackley being shown the door...

If he can’t hack it at 2nd, they’ll find a spot for him. He’’s too talented with the bat to throw him away because he can’t play second.

"Simply put, Dave Niehaus was why Marconi invented radio."

by Thingray on Dec 16, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think that's true

hard working players get better at defense and if Ackley fails to improve his defense at second, it will be a clear indication that he is not a hard enough worker to cut it in the big leagues. We don’t need someone here who will simply coast on natural ability.

Either way, once Ackley fails, we will need a second baseman, so I like the idea of swapping Aardsma for a near-MLB second base prospect.

by seattlebruin on Dec 16, 2010 5:02 PM PST up reply actions   3 recs

We agree, but for different reasons

Second base is often called the keystone, because it holds both the offense and defense in place. This is clearly illustrative in the Mariners last two seasons. In 2009, Jose Lopez provided pop with the bat and sturdy, girthy defense. In 2010, Chone Figgins offered limp defense and an impotent bat.
The M’s need to get someone who will challenge Ackley’s manhood and prove his worth in the big leagues.

by yuniform on Dec 16, 2010 5:10 PM PST up reply actions   3 recs

This post is very testosterone driven

I feel like girthy 2b defense would be kind of heavy and awkward. Like Dan Uggla

by tsunamijesus on Dec 16, 2010 6:59 PM PST up reply actions  

I think sb was making a funny.

Or perhaps this is just another layer to a joke that is going over head of the joke that kind of didn’t go over my head. Damn you Inception.

"That's fuckin' ingenious, if I understand it correctly. It's a Swiss fuckin' watch. "

by the other side on Dec 16, 2010 5:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Both your definition of failure and your failure percentage are unclear

I’d say there’s a 29 percent chance he fails, but that’s just me.

by yuniform on Dec 16, 2010 4:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Less than 20% chance Smoak is less than 1.5 WAR/150 games by next year.

Failure defined as not performing enough to hold down starting job. Of this percentage, 15% of the time, in my opinion, this will come from an injury altering his skills. The remaining 5% will be mental breakdown and/or his performance thus far being an illusion somehow.

by silverbook on Dec 16, 2010 5:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Is the season over already?

I was still waiting for it to get started. I am so far behind.

by Droid Rage on Dec 16, 2010 5:22 PM PST up reply actions  

If the Mariners do not get something very interesting this off season, I hope they hold on to him and see what develops.

Some team may have their closer hurt in spring training, or decide that they need one before the trading deadline. Closers are often over valued by teams looking for one. Aardsma may have more value when another team feels they have a high need for a closer. It is odd that a closer’s value often has more to do with his position (closer) than his skill set (hard throwing reliever with control issues) but if we get to take advantage of that perceived value we should wait for it to develop. If not, we still have a reasonably priced closer.

by Droid Rage on Dec 16, 2010 5:08 PM PST reply actions  

That's balanced by the chance that Aardsma falls apart next year

Just as another team’s closer may underperform or get injured, so might David Aardsma. He has value now, he may not later.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 16, 2010 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, but the chance that Aardsma is the one to fail is much less than that one of the other 29 club's closers fails.

If you get to bet failure on one player or a field of 29 similar players which is the smart bet?

by Droid Rage on Dec 16, 2010 6:07 PM PST up reply actions  

There won't be 29 contending teams looking to upgrade

Of course, Aardsma wouldn’t only be available as a closer – he’d possibly/probably be looked at as a setup guy.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 16, 2010 6:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Of course not, but the chance that one of the 29 will have someone hurt is greater than the chance that Aardsma is hurt.

All I am trying to say is that getting rid of Aardsma now because he may get hurt is playing against the odds.

by Droid Rage on Dec 16, 2010 7:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Not really

that would only be true if the overall odds on his performance next year (including the possibility of injury) were tilted toward improved performance — which would not seem likely.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 17, 2010 12:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Hahahahahaha!

I went to MLB trade rumors to see if they had anything more on the Rockies interest in Aardsma (they didn’t), and something farther down the page caught my eye. In a post for Yankees rumors, they’re looking for pitchers, including this: “a deal for Felix Hernandez seems unlikely at best”.

I just had to laugh. Then this gem further down: “The Yankees have asked for the medicals on Freddie Garcia”.

Hahahahahahaha!

Sorry, off-topic, but I enjoyed that so much I had to share.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 16, 2010 6:02 PM PST up reply actions  

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