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Around SBN: Devils Beat Rangers, Head To Stanley Cup Finals

Brendan Ryan, Seattle Mariner

Point #1: don't worry about Maikel Cleto, who's going to St. Louis. Cleto's only 21, and he has a big arm, but he's miles and miles away and his future - if he has one - almost certainly lies in the bullpen. This isn't a trade the Mariners are going to regret because of what they gave up.

Point #2: as many of you have already figured out, yes, Brendan Ryan starred in the best baseball commercial in baseball commercial history. While, by and large, mustache jokes aren't funny anymore due to overuse and limited creativity, the Ryan ad lives on as the pinnacle of the genre.

Point #3: the 28-year-old Ryan had a miserable 2010 season. He also has a career .658 OPS, while the league-average shortstop hovers around .700. Given Ryan's defensive expertise, it's fairly safe to say that he projects as league average for his position.

-----

This last point is important. It would be easy to look at Ryan's 2010 numbers and conclude that the Mariners didn't actually get any better, but that would be inaccurate. At the same time, the fact that the Mariners just lost 101 games causes us to overreact to good news, and nothing about this trade is genius or brilliant. The Mariners gave up a long-shot prospect for a decent player the Cardinals didn't want. That's all. Brendan Ryan is a decent player, and everything that being a decent player involves.

The thing that stands out the most about Brendan Ryan is his defense. Not only is he capable of playing second, short, and third - he's regarded as one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball. I've little choice but to mention that he's reliably posted an excellent UZR, but for those of you who don't care for the metric, Ryan has also scored very well in the Fan Scouting Report, and real scouts - professional scouts - love him as well. Brendan Ryan's a very good defensive infielder. That isn't a controversial statement. He has good hands, instincts, and range, and he's the kind of defender you notice for all the right reasons.

But, okay - the Mariners traded for an awesome defensive shortstop from the NL Central before, and he's just been a pile of crap. Ryan, though, isn't Jack Wilson. At the time of the trade, Wilson was 31 going on 60. Ryan doesn't have Wilson's track record of lower body injuries. He's young, and while his style of play can cause him to get banged up, he doesn't have Wilson's potential to disappear for weeks or months at a time. This isn't the same kind of deal.

So Ryan's defense is great. His health isn't a real concern. He is, additionally, a fairly good baserunner, as you'd expect. What that leaves us with is his bat. A bat that has posted two season OPS figures in the mid-.700s, and two season OPS figures in the high-.500s. What should we expect?

As a number of people have pointed out, Ryan was bothered by his wrist during the 2010 season, but says now that his wrist feels terrific. It's easy to imagine how a sore wrist could be bad news for a hitter, and while Ryan was able to pull the ball just as often in 2010 as he did in 2009, his results were a lot worse, hinting at reduced bat speed or control. A healthy wrist should pull his numbers back up a fair bit.

But it's not like Ryan is another Ichiro waiting to blossom. He doesn't have any power, and might hit two or three home runs. He doesn't have exceptional discipline, and he doesn't have an exceptional ability to make contact. You look at his career batting line of .259/.314/.344 and that seems about right. He's a slap-hitting middle infielder. You can only ask for so much.

So Ryan's a low-ceiling guy at the plate and a high-ceiling guy in the field. What makes him rather handy is that he fills a need. He only turns 29 next March, and has three remaining years of team control. He's more reliable than Jack Wilson, he's a better defender than Josh Wilson, and he's more predictable than Luis Rodriguez. He makes for a great fit for this particular roster, because he can keep second base warm until Dustin Ackley's service time-related promotion delay is up, and then he can either become a super-sub or just flat out take over at short if Jack isn't getting the job done. He's like everything Josh Wilson is, only better, which makes him an improvement, which makes him neat.

That Ryan won't hit very much will keep him from being a star. People will like him, though, because he looks good in a uniform, and he's always moving at least 12 of his muscles, and he has a bit of personality. And, of course, he'll help a bit on the field. So this is an across-the-board good move. Many thanks to the St. Louis hustling white middle infielder factory for being willing to help us out.

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Solid move.

Pretty much anything would be a step up from our shortstops last year.

by quacker27 on Dec 12, 2010 2:57 PM PST reply actions  

Ah, unless the idea is to play him at second.

But at this point Jack Wilson has to be expected to miss sometime next season, in which case Ryan can play short.

by quacker27 on Dec 12, 2010 3:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I like these kinds of moves.

Low-risk, interesting, and potentially very useful.

by ThundaPC on Dec 12, 2010 3:15 PM PST reply actions  

I see it like this:

[Jack Z busts into the interns’ office with a huge box full of VHS tapes]

Jack: We need a number two starter. I need you guys to watch all of these MLB commercials and get back to me the top 10 funniest spots with #2 or #3 guys with at least +1 run difference between their ERA and their FIP on cost controlled contracts for the next two years. Highlight any guys who play for the Mets, Royals, Pirates or Cubs.

Interns: blank stares

Jack: I’ll need that by 9am.

by doublemazaa on Dec 12, 2010 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

A comparison

Brendan Ryan (career): 6.6 BB%, 13.7 K%, .085 ISO, .292 BABIP, .294 wOBA, 11.4 UZR/150 at SS

Elvis Andrus (career): 8.6 BB%, 16.2 K%, .067 ISO, .312 BABIP, .309 wOBA, 6.7 UZR/150 at SS

Brendan Ryan is pretty much Elvis Andrus. And Elvis Andrus plays half of his games in an extreme hitter’s park. If I told you we just traded Maikel Cleto for Elvis Andrus, you’d be doing cartwheels. This is a good trade.

by JLC on Dec 12, 2010 3:20 PM PST reply actions  

Sort of...

Other than the park about him being 21 years old and stealing 35 bases a year.

by Capes on Dec 12, 2010 3:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, yeah, of course

But there’s not a lot of room for Andrus to grow into more power when he pounds the ball into the ground nearly 60% of the time. Andrus obviously has more upside, but their skillsets are very similar. They both pound the ball into the ground and rely on their defense to give their teams value. I guess that’s more of a negative on Andrus than it is praise for Ryan, but the point is that we’re getting great value for what is ultimately not an amazing prospect.

by JLC on Dec 12, 2010 3:31 PM PST up reply actions  

*Geoduck

I don’t live in Seattle either. Be ashamed…

by BigR on Dec 12, 2010 5:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Vegetarian.

So I am exempt from shame.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 12, 2010 6:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Geoducks are better for spelling and pronouncing than they are for eating.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Dec 12, 2010 6:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes!!

I couldn’t remember if it was Ryan or Skip Schumacher who did the spinning mustache. I’m excited, If he could have a year like he did in 2009 I will do a happy dance.

Stats are not a euphemism for tits

by Trenchtown on Dec 12, 2010 4:55 PM PST reply actions  

More awesome is that the Cardinals loved Ryan

And now that we have him, they’re pissed. We rule.

by Sarchasm on Dec 12, 2010 5:02 PM PST reply actions  

Well, their fans did

The FO and field management, not so much.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 13, 2010 9:57 AM PST up reply actions  

A Figgins-Wilson-Ryan infield is still not going to hit much.

But our infield defense should be pretty great, assuming Figgins’s goes back to being the glove he has been in the past at 3rd.

by quacker27 on Dec 12, 2010 5:10 PM PST reply actions  

With Ichiro, Guti, Figgins, Wilson and Ryan, the team is running out five high-caliber defenders.

And with no Rob Johnson, there’s no Rob Johnson!

Mute the Sounders. Malamute the Huskies.

by thehemogoblin on Dec 12, 2010 5:36 PM PST up reply actions  

The downside to there being no Rob Johnson is that there WILL BE Miguel Olivo.

But I’m not really too upset about that. Our catchers have been bad for such a long time, I’m numb to it.

by quacker27 on Dec 12, 2010 6:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I think that came out a little cluttered.

Link

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Dec 12, 2010 6:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Wow. They really liked this guy.

Your link led me to some interesting pieces they had on Ryan’s swing: here and here from May and August of last season, respectively.

It’ll be interesting to watch and see if the Mariners change his approach or adjust his swing at all.

Chad Brown for the Ring of Honor!

by Big Seahawk Loser on Dec 12, 2010 7:24 PM PST up reply actions  

It's possible.

The M’s went pretty heavy on video scouting a while back, so if they noticed it they might try to correct it.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Dec 12, 2010 7:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Can't decide which is better ...

“He’s better than Dave Cameron. At least he sticks by his beliefs” or “seattle is a mexican food wasteland”

by msb on Dec 12, 2010 7:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, duh...

Seattle IS a Mexican food wasteland…

by rtang on Dec 12, 2010 8:13 PM PST up reply actions  

To be fair, of the major international cuisines,

I would concede that Seattle does Mexican second worst of all. We also suck for Italian I find in terms of quantity of decent fooderies

by Matthew on Dec 13, 2010 10:49 AM PST up reply actions  

There certainly are

just nowhere near as many when compared to thai, vietnamese, korean, etc. Not that I believe there should be, just that I think it’s a reasonable critique

by Matthew on Dec 13, 2010 10:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, it is.

But honestly if I have to pick one over the other, Southeast Asian food wins.

by Aaron Campeau on Dec 13, 2010 11:05 AM PST up reply actions  

I hate to nitpick, but it's technically Sicilian food

Much heavier North African and Middle Eastern influences due to being the most frequently conquered civilization in human history

by Cougriculture on Dec 13, 2010 10:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Only 825? I’ve seen game threads at Viva El Birdos hit 2000 posts, if not more.

by MO'toole on Dec 12, 2010 11:49 PM PST up reply actions  

This is Overflow Thread I (of II)

from Game 112 last year, vs. the Reds after Brandon Phillips called the Cardinals “whiny bitches.” This thread has 1049 comments… Overflow Thread II has 1363 comments.

comments…\http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2010/8/10/1616603/game-112-overflow

by salvomania on Dec 13, 2010 6:33 PM PST up reply actions  

We have had game threads with over 5,000 comments.

We are a feisty bunch when we want to be.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 13, 2010 8:15 PM PST up reply actions  

proof

proof or it didnt happen LOL

by MO'toole on Dec 15, 2010 1:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Please refrain from using chatspeak such as LOL, +1 and the like. We dislike it here.

Also, the subject line should ideally be the start of your comment, not just a copy of the first word(s)

by Matthew on Dec 15, 2010 8:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Good low priced move.

A good season at the plate would make things great.

Oh hell yes.

by dba on Dec 12, 2010 6:29 PM PST reply actions  

Like the move

This should mean we get to watch some pretty sweet defense at SS this year. Either Jack Wilson or Ryan should be there all year. Plus we have our 2B situation handled and for low dollars with a player we aren’t obligated to pay for long.

by short on Dec 12, 2010 8:39 PM PST reply actions  

After some thought, I'm warming up to the thought of Ryan in the lineup

It really was a no-lose trade.

I mean he couldn’t be any worse (or uglier) than Jack Wilson, and certainly no worse than Josh.

Any of these 3 should be hitting 9th in the lineup however.

by Tord F on Dec 12, 2010 9:06 PM PST reply actions  

Good insurance for when Jack's eventual stint on the DL

Plus, it gives us a legitimate utility infielder that we can plug in when I guy needs a day off. There seems to be a lot to like about this deal

"Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly, the ill deeds along with the good and let me be judged accordingly. The rest is silence." ~ Dinobot

by beastwarking on Dec 12, 2010 10:03 PM PST reply actions  

What do you mean "eventual"?

That presumes it won’t happen for quite a while . . .

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 13, 2010 9:54 AM PST up reply actions  

He probably means April 15th.

"Making hitmen legal would really help the unemployment rate."-Thingray

by ToddK on Dec 13, 2010 12:28 PM PST up reply actions  

I hope they take it easy on him in Spring Training.

He needs to last at least a couple of weeks into the regular season if they want to save a year of Ackley’s service time.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 13, 2010 1:30 PM PST up reply actions  

A couple of corrections needed to the chart.

Ezequiel Carrera was traded by the Mariners along with Juan Diaz to the Indians earlier this year for Russell Branyan. Also, Miguel Olivo was actually traded by the Mariners to the Padres for Nathanael Mateo and Miguel Ojeda in 2005. Frankly I’m not sure if we traded Olivo again now that we’ve signed him if that would count on the Langston tree or not. I’m leaning not.

by drblacknwhite on Dec 13, 2010 12:04 AM PST up reply actions  

I'd say no as well, because Olivo was reacquired at a later date.

Also, wasn’t there a trade of Carlos Guillen that isn’t on that tree? I don’t know what it affects, however.

Mute the Sounders. Malamute the Huskies.

by thehemogoblin on Dec 13, 2010 12:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Yes, forgot about that one somehow.

Carlos Guillen was traded to the Tigers for Juan Gonzalez (not that one) and Ramon Santiago in January 2004.

by drblacknwhite on Dec 13, 2010 12:13 AM PST up reply actions  

I missed those!

Fixed.

I think I’m inclined to agree with you on Miguel Olivo, as well.

by xero3k on Dec 13, 2010 12:21 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Ezequiel Carrera's last name is misspelled as "Carrara."

Also, I would just make the whole image a bit wider and reshuffle it so it is clear who is delineated from which “parent” player. You should have an infinite amount of space to work with, in theory, so making things easy to read and follow should be the most important thing.

Mute the Sounders. Malamute the Huskies.

by thehemogoblin on Dec 13, 2010 12:26 AM PST up reply actions  

For now, here's the latest version

Link For some reason, ImageShack doesn’t let me replace images.

Thanks for the continuing feedback — I started just trying to visualize this myself, since everyone always talks about it when a linked trade goes down, but I’m glad at least one other person finds it useful!

by xero3k on Dec 13, 2010 9:27 AM PST up reply actions  

So Ryan also links back to the Griffey-to-CIN trade

Griffey > Tomko > Ben Davis > Jeremy Reed > Cleto > Brendan Ryan.

I hope Carrera or Carp is part of some crazy package so this doesn’t trade lineage doesn’t die.

by yuniform on Dec 13, 2010 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Carrera already got us Russell Branyan.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Dec 13, 2010 3:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Should also note, it actually goes back further

since Langston was acquired with the comp pick for Bill Stein, who was on the M’s roster for opening day of their inaugural season.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 13, 2010 9:56 AM PST up reply actions  

Technically this trade is part of it.

Langston → Randy → F. Garcia → J. Reed → Cleto → Brendan Ryan

by PShwa on Dec 12, 2010 11:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Mind is blown.

Mute the Sounders. Malamute the Huskies.

by thehemogoblin on Dec 12, 2010 11:53 PM PST up reply actions  

THEY'RE STIRRUPS!

Mute the Sounders. Malamute the Huskies.

by thehemogoblin on Dec 12, 2010 11:52 PM PST up reply actions  

We need a fancy version

SILVER AND BLUE STIRRUPS!

Carlos Silvelite

by OceanBird on Dec 12, 2010 11:58 PM PST up reply actions  

How about blue and teal?

More team-color-y, less gray-y.

Mute the Sounders. Malamute the Huskies.

by thehemogoblin on Dec 13, 2010 12:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Blue and NORTHWEST GREEN.

Dawg! He put da team on his back!

by JAH on Dec 13, 2010 1:04 AM PST up reply actions  

I deserved that.

Mute the Sounders. Malamute the Huskies.

by thehemogoblin on Dec 13, 2010 1:26 AM PST up reply actions  

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