Avoiding Offseason Mistakes

As the Mariners prepare for another season, it's important to note not just what they should do, but what they should not do.  The last few seasons have yielded mostly unexpected results, but with a little more digging into how we got there, we usually find that its just the extreme version of our worst case scenario.  I believe that for the most part, you are what your record says you are. 

To an extent, you can be a World Series caliber team and not make the playoffs.  The Giants proved that this year.  If they lose two extra games in the regular season, it wouldn't mean that they were any worse than the team that won the championship.  It could just mean they got unlucky two extra times.  But then there is the majority of major league teams.  Teams like the Mariners weren't a few unlucky breaks from the playoffs.  They were a boom or bust team that busted as much as they possibly could have.

This offseason, the Mariners will most likely stand pat and stick to their guns.  They will calmly set all of their eggs in separate baskets and line those baskets with blankets and feathers.  Is this the right move or should they take a couple of chances?  Sometimes when money is flowing in, you spend less.  Figuring the value of each dollar you've earned is that much more important.  Sometimes when money is tight, you spend more because you so rarely get an extra fifty bucks, and when you do you want to treat yourself.

This year money is tight.  Both literally and figuratively.  The M's aren't expected to spend much, and if anything are probably expected to try and move some of the bigger contracts if they can.  They will be preparing for the 2012 season, hoping for a middle of the road year because they can't expect more and don't want to see 100 losses.  So they can't do too much and can't do too little.

A brief look back on the last 5 seasons and offseasons:

2006 -

2006 is almost the quintessential 2000's Seattle Mariners roster.  All the big names are there that I will remember from this decade of Mariners baseball.  They finished 78-84, lost 11 straight games in August, and finished fourth.  In the offseason, not much changed. They were going to stick to their guns and hope for better results.  They moved Ichiro to centerfield and benched Jeremy Reed.  They added Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro to the lineup and Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver, and Horacio Ramirez to the starting rotation.  Rafael Soriano was out and Brandon Morrow was in. 

The bad news is that it essentially.. worked.

2007 -

The Mariners were only 1 game back of first place on August 25th.  Losing 15 of 17 though, killed all their playoff hopes.  Still, it was clear to M's management that they were only one or two pieces away.  Even though none of their offseason moves worked the previous year (other than a flukey healthy and productive and out of trouble season from Jose Guillen) the M's won 88 games. 

We made the push for Bedard, we signed Carlos Silva, we know the rest.  101 losses.

2008 -

The 2008 offseason (and prior to the offseason) was about change.  Not major upgrades, just change and cleaning house.  Goodbye Bill Bavasi and Richie Sexson, hello Jack Zduriencik and Don Wakamatsu and Franklin Gutierrez.  And no expectations.  No expectations for 90 wins or a playoff push. Just hope that we wont spend so much money on so many crappy players.  A move towards a sabermetric tomorrow that will win games with defense and fundamentals.  Maybe not a lot of games, but enough to put butts in the seats in September.

2009 -

As we know, they won 85 games.  Felix was amazing.  Gutierrez was amazing.  Russell Branyan was neat!  The Mariners weren't as publicized for being active during the offseason before 2009 as they were in 2008, because they didn't go out and get the big stars.  But in reality Jack Z worked his butt off and made more moves than Bavasi could count on both hands.  (This is important, as Bavasi can actually not count to higher than 10.  Fact.)  And they were cheap moves that paid off in a big way. 

2010 -

So the M's were finally poised to make a real run at the playoffs.  They won 85 games the previous year, the Angels were no longer a mighty and dominating team.  The M's just had to do enough to win 4 or 5 more games and it seemed like they would have a good shot at the division.  They made big moves, adding Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins.  They made small moves like adding Casey Kotchman and Brandon League.  And they lost 101 games again and here we are.

Based on all of that.  Here's what NOT to do:

Don't Make Assumptions Based On Your Record or Results from the Previous Season

As I said before, I do believe you are what your record says you are, or at least pretty darn close.  But that doesn't mean you push forward based on your previous seasons record.  The 2011 season should act independently of the 2010 season.  You learn from the previous season, you hope to grow from it, but you don't make monumental changes to the infrastructure because of one season.  You add to the team, you subtract from the team, some players get better, some players get worse.  Some names will stay the same, and you dont expect a 40 game turnaround, but this next team will have its own identity and be its own product.

Last season the Mariners were one of the worst and least efficient offenses in the history of the game.  Think about that.  One of the worst offenses ever.  Out of 1000's of offenses that have ever played 162 games of major league baseball, the 2010 Mariners are in the bottom 1%. 

The Mariners won 116 games in 2001.  That didn't mean that they would win 117 games in 2002.  If anything, it meant that they would be more likely to NOT win 117 games, because you don't usually make history in back to back seasons.  In all likelihood, the Mariners could stand pat and still score 600 runs.  That's not a lot of runs, but it is 87 more runs than they scored last season. 

Don't Put All Your Eggs in One Basket

Just call it the Erik Bedard rule. 

Look, maybe I am naive, but I liked the Erik Bedard trade.  I wasn't sold on Adam Jones or Chris Tillman and I believed that Bedard had one minor injury that wouldn't pop up again.  I was also a lot stupider about baseball at the time.  And I liked shiny things.

The issue was related to the previous rule I discussed: The Mariners didn't know what they were.  They were an 88 win team on paper, but also a team that got outscored by 19 runs.  They made several key moves based on 88 wins but didn't account for everything as they transitioned from one season to the next. 

They didn't account for Richie Sexson turning 33 and losing his skills as a power hitter.  Or the decline of Kenji Johjima from his rookie season to his sophomore season being a sign of more decline to come.  Or that Wladimir Balantien really wasn't a major league caliber hitter and that Jeremy Reed wouldn't be the guy you'd want backing him up.  Or that Jose Vidro should never be your DH, let alone two seasons in a row.  Or that "Innings Eater #4 Starter!" does not equal $12 million a year. 

And so by mortgaging off several of our best prospects for two years of any pitcher is a waste of time and resources if you aren't going to account for the other holes on your roster.  I don't care if that pitcher is Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, if you can't do the fundamentals, score runs, and play defense, you won't win because of any one player added to the team. 

But Don't Just Stand Pat

On the surface, the Cliff Lee and Erik Bedard deals seem very similar.  Coming off of a suprsingly successful season, add an "ace" starting pitcher to make a push for the playoffs and move some prospects in return.  However, Cliff Lee wasn't a "put all your eggs into one basket" kind of move.

No prospect sent to Philadelphia was nearly as good as Adam Jones or Chris Tillman.  And the worst case scenario for Cliff Lee (outside of an unexpected and unlikely serious injury) was type-A compensation after a losing season.  The worst case scenario for Erik Bedard can be found at baseball-reference.com/ErikBedard. 

Though the best case scenario for the Lee deal did not work out, the M's got as much as they could hope for in a 101-loss season, adding a prospect who Baseball America had ranked #12 heading into the season as well as two pitchers that could turn out as good or better than the two pitchers they sent to Philly for Lee.  The Cliff Lee deal had insurance written all over it.

Bill Bavasi just wants to beat you and he doesn't care how dumb he might look when the deal goes down.  Jack Z wants to beat you and make you feel like Bill Bavasi.  He wants to make moves that not only help the team win but make people say "Wow, how did he get that deal done?" 

It is unlikely that the Mariners will make a move for Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez, but you can't put it past them to try and they shouldn't be shy if the opportunity comes along for a player that improves the team in 2011 and sets them up for future success with or without those players acquired. 

Dont Spent Too Much in Free Agency When You Dont Have To

Finally, the Mariners must look to free agency and the ever expanding number of players that will hit the market and find that paychecks aren't what they used to be.  This is something that teams have been using to their advantage for the last couple of years and the reward far outweighs the risk.

The Giants signed Aubrey Huff for 3 million.  The Rangers signed Vladimir Guerrero for 6.5 million.  The Twins signed Orlando Hudson for 5 million and Jim Thome for 1.5 million.  All of those teams were successful.  Not every free agent, low key signing turned out that way, but they were low key so it's not a big deal.  Teams are going to be a lot less apt to pop big paychecks to anybody outside of the absolute top tier of free agents when they know how many bargains exist. 

Dave Cameron noted this last year, after people realized that GM's may start to emulate the Jack Z style of finding cheap players that provide enough defensive value to be as valuable as an all-bat position player and was asked what the next trend would be.  He said that he could see it being veterans signing on the cheap and providing as much value on small 1 or 2 year deals as younger players on bigger contracts.  As so many teams try to get younger, it drives down the price on older players that can still play but aren't getting as much attention.  With a deep 1st base market and essentially a large hole at DH and perhaps needing more of a veteran presence in the clubhouse, the Mariners are ripe to take advantage of this trend.