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A's Win Rights To Hisashi Iwakuma?

Wbc_029_tiny by Jeff Sullivan on in Seattle Mariners Regular News

Make of this what you will, but as noticed by commenter eeyore8319 in the thread below, Don Nomura tweeted an interesting message earlier today:

岩隈さん Oakland Athletics!!!!

Translating as: Iwakuma's Oakland Athletics!!!!

Don Nomura is Hisashi Iwakuma's agent, so he'd be as solid a source as anybody on the matter. And though it's curious that we've heard nothing else on the situation since Nomura's tweet six hours ago, it sure sounds like something to go on. He'd have to be one dick of an agent to take to Twitter with an outright lie.

So, we'll see, as we wait for confirmation. But it would seem that perhaps the most interesting improvement possibility is off the table, and could be headed to a division rival. Which is exactly what you want to hear when you're already competing with the pennant-winning Rangers and an Angels team that's supposedly going to sign at least 96 free agents. 2011 is shaping up to be a real treat.

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I'd say "everything is terrible again"

but that implies that at some point recently, things stopped being terrible, and that I just don’t buy.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 7, 2010 7:28 PM PST reply actions  

Awww rasberries.

Dawg! He put da team on his back!

by JAH on Nov 7, 2010 7:29 PM PST reply actions  

New tweets reveal:

Oakland ですが、これから選手契約です…それが決まらないと…
Oakland is a contract player … and now it is undecided …

Somebody then asked:

お、決まったのか？っつか言っちゃっていいの？
How are you all decided? I mean, say I got?

To which he replied:

ダメなことは言わないよ（笑）( ´ ▽ ` )ﾉ
I say bad things (laughs) (’▽ `) Bruno

What a gamechanger!

by Mataya on Nov 7, 2010 7:40 PM PST reply actions  

God those people are weird.

Either that or fuck you google translate.

"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."

by the other side on Nov 7, 2010 7:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Bad google translate (Am Japanese...)

Oakland ですが、これから選手契約です…それが決まらないと…

It’s Oakland but now it’s about the player contract…until that’s decided…

お、決まったのか？っつか言っちゃっていいの？

Oh, it’s decided then? I mean, you can talk about it?

ダメなことは言わないよ（笑）( ´ ▽ ` )ﾉ

I won’t say things I can’t say (lol)

by Ence on Nov 7, 2010 8:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah I figured.

Thanks for the translate.

"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."

by the other side on Nov 7, 2010 8:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Permission to freak out.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 7, 2010 7:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Only if it involves being completely coherent and reasonable in all caps.

"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."

by the other side on Nov 7, 2010 7:46 PM PST up reply actions  

I think that has to come about organically.

Besides, this is something that doesn’t exactly have a whole lot of certainty one way or the other. We think based off of recent comparisons that Iwakuma could be an impact pitcher, but we don’t really know.

I think an all caps meltdown might have to be reserved for Jack’s annual winter “where the heck did that come from?” trade.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 7, 2010 7:50 PM PST up reply actions  

You mean the one that will take us to the playoffs for sure?

Cause that didn’t work great last time….

"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."

by the other side on Nov 7, 2010 7:53 PM PST up reply actions  

It's funny because I don't think about the initial Cliff Lee trade so much as the one that sent him away.

On the whole though, I think we came out on top in that. Our package we got from Texas was way better than what we gave to the Phillies. Morrow for League blew up, but for reasons that couldn’t easily be accounted for on both sides.

I now await Aardsma for anyone.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 7, 2010 8:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree.

Overall, I think we came out ahead of everyone that has traded or traded for Cliff. Although a WS would have probably taken the cake. I still have tons of faith in Z and eagerly await his next robbery… I mean trade.

"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."

by the other side on Nov 7, 2010 8:09 PM PST up reply actions  

I think there are very few Rangers fans who rue that trade.

I’m rooting for Smoak, but there’s still a lot of uncertainty there. What are the chances the M’s hold on to Lueke, do you figure?

"Basically, tRA is FIP having a nightmare." ~ Matt Swartz

by Josh Garoon on Nov 7, 2010 8:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Lueke's a weird case.

There’s been all that brouhaha over who knew what and when, and even with Fusco getting fired, a lot of people don’t think that the M’s can really atone for this and maintain their strong stance on the issue without also cutting Lueke.

From my own end, I kind of think that they wouldn’t have sent him to the Arizona Fall League without some notion of keeping him around, but a more skeptical person could easily turn that on its ear and say “they’re just showcasing him, knowing that he’d play well in case another team decides to bite”. I think it could really go either way at this point.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 7, 2010 8:17 PM PST up reply actions  

That makes sense -- thanks for the take.

If Seattle does have to unload Lueke, then the pressure’s really on Smoak to make good. It’ll be interesting to see how he bounces back from 2010…

"Basically, tRA is FIP having a nightmare." ~ Matt Swartz

by Josh Garoon on Nov 7, 2010 8:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, I don't see those tweets on his twitter account.

"Oh, the usual. I bowl. Drive around. The occasional acid flashback."

by the other side on Nov 7, 2010 7:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Twitter is acting up, and tweets keep coming and going

doing some cut & paste with an online translator it does look like he is saying he heard from the Oakland GM, that it comes down to a contract they can agree on or it reverts back

by msb on Nov 7, 2010 7:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I'm having the same issue.

What I did to get through it is I looked up the rss feed. All the newer stuff is in there even if it isn’t loaded to his account when you look it up.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 7, 2010 7:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Sorry for my english, but it must be better than google translate

Oakland ですが、これから選手契約です…それが決まらないと…
The team is Oakland, but it is not decided until Oakland signs him.

Somebody then asked:

お、決まったのか？っつか言っちゃっていいの？
Just decided? By the way, aren’t you banned to leak?

To which he replied:

ダメなことは言わないよ（笑）( ´ ▽ ` )ﾉ
I would never say if I am banned to say.

by eeyore8319 on Nov 7, 2010 7:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Isn't the first more like..

“It’s Oakland. Next up is the contract. Let’s get it done.”

m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!

by JediLeroy on Nov 7, 2010 10:48 PM PST up reply actions  

And when doing a general search one of the first things to pop up was someone's tweet

“#Iwakuma won by #Oakland good job @theRealMariners, way to underbid”

love the automatic assumption the Ms underbid

by msb on Nov 7, 2010 8:07 PM PST reply actions  

I just don't want a division rival to have him.

The theory going around is that if Oakland gets him, they trade some of their surplus pitching for bats. This division is getting more and more competitive on all sides and it’s getting awfully hard to keep up, even with our supposed resources.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 7, 2010 8:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Even though this probably doesn't end up mattering a whole lot in the long run,

it still feels like this is a big disappointment among other disappointments..

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Nov 7, 2010 8:40 PM PST reply actions  

Great, I never wanted to have nice things or be excited or anything.

It’s going to be grand having to face Trevor Cahill two consecutive times.

by JLC on Nov 7, 2010 9:25 PM PST reply actions  

I love Larry Stone.

…"earlier today, as Jeff Sullivan noted on Lookout Landing, Iwakuma’s agent, Don Nomura, tweeted earlier today the words, “Oakland Athletics” followed by four exclamation points. I’d say that’s a pretty good indication that the A’s put in the high bid, which would likely be accepted by Iwakuma’s Japanese team, the Rakuten Golden Eagles. Three exclamation points and I might have my doubts, but there’s a level of certainty that radiates from four. I feel strongly about that!!!!"

by msb on Nov 7, 2010 10:39 PM PST reply actions  

There`s no `th` sound in Japanese...

So it`d probably be closer to Oakrand Assrechics.

by ewakio on Nov 7, 2010 10:39 PM PST reply actions  

Woops

This was supposed to be in reply to OlSalty, sorry.

by ewakio on Nov 7, 2010 10:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Okurando Asurechikkusu

m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!

by JediLeroy on Nov 7, 2010 10:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Earlier clarification was funny and helpful but now you've gone too far.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 8, 2010 7:29 AM PST up reply actions  

オークランドアスレチックス

m*****f***ing c***s***ing peanut butter and jelly!! f*** f*** f***!!!

by JediLeroy on Nov 8, 2010 2:19 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Now, you get a rec.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 8, 2010 2:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Dang it

Your reply failure led to me reply failing!

by Mothy on Nov 7, 2010 11:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Well at least we could now sign Carl Pavano! Or Javier Vasquez! Or Hiroki Kuroda!

Maybe we could get Harden, Bedard and Webb and see whose arm goes kablooey first! Well any way at least we might get to see how creative GMZ might be this offseason.

You got slurved!

by Slurvey on Nov 7, 2010 10:48 PM PST reply actions  

All I can discern from these tweets:

Oakland has very lucky dishes.

Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, he's like Aubrey Huff, but can't hit as well or field his position.

Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s ---
Bochy: WHO GIVES A SHIT? IT'S WHATEVER I SAY IT IS BECAUSE I WON A WORLD SERIES.

by scout6 on Nov 7, 2010 11:45 PM PST reply actions  

Alrighty-then

We may not be in the AL East but the AL West sure is annoying.

by ThundaPC on Nov 8, 2010 12:07 AM PST reply actions  

It just struck me that the A's may have put in a ridiculous high bid just to block us.

If so, fuck the A-holes even more.

I remember reading somewhere that Iwakuma’s team was looking for a bid of 1.3 to 1.4 billion yen, which (since the dollar sucks now) would be around 16.25 to 17.5 million dollars. And it seems the A’s bid is in this range?

The M’s supposedly bid 13 million dollars, but if the A’s bid is indeed in the 16 milllon dollars range, then that seems ridiculously high, especially for a skinflint team.
And they have pitching.

What gives with those fuckers?

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 2:38 AM PST reply actions  

Yeah

how DARE they spend money to make their team better. Those ASSHOLES! What were they THINKING?

by pdb on Nov 8, 2010 7:27 AM PST up reply actions   4 recs

I first thought it went completely over your head, and then reread it and saw I didn't add enough details..

By “block” I meant that the A’s are going to lowball him in contract negotiations.

If he refuses to sign they get their 16 million back. This $16M is virtual money as long as the deal doesn’t go through.

Actually the bid could be more than 16 million. What gives?

In the case that he does sign unexpectedly extremely cheaply they will have got a good piece.

But I hope I’m wrong and there is some viable mechanism to block such shit. Such as if the deal falls through, the second highest bid (if the Japanese team accepts) team gets a chance to negotiate with the player.

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 1:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Sorry, still not clear.

I wrote “block” because I suspect that A’s made a ridiculously high offer (maybe even more than 17 mill!!) because they have little intent to really let the deal go through unless they are able to extremely lowball Iwakuma on his contract.

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 1:43 PM PST up reply actions  

The idea that a team could overbid in order to block other teams from signing a posted player was theorized back when Matsuzaka was posted.

But if a team did that, they’d risk seriously alienating all NPB teams from posting their players. Given Rakuten’s close ties with the A’s, that seems highly unlikely.

Are there mechanisms in place to prevent that sort of tampering? Who knows? We really don’t know much about the posting system and it’s very likely that there are negotiations and talks between the posting team and interested MLB teams to gauge whether or not there’s serious interest.

As surprising as it is, that a small market team like the A’s would spend that much money, we don’t really know the financial specifics. That money could come from a separate account, similar to the M’s – heck, the Mariners aren’t supposed to have 13 million to spend this offseason, but we were allegedly in the running for Iwakuma.

by JLC on Nov 8, 2010 2:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, the idea that the A's have amazing pitching isn't quite accurate

Dave Cameron covers this on fangraphs.
If you compare on fangraphs, Vin Mazzaro is basically replacement level, Dallas Braden is more or less Jason Vargas , and Gio Gonzalez is a poor man’s Jonathan Sanchez.

The A’s are pretty much looking at Iwakuma to replicate what Trevor Cahill did last season, which is to pitch in front of an amazing infield defense and post an ERA of something like 2.97 when your xFIP shows you pitched more like a 4.11. Given their infield defense, Iwakuma fits quite well for the A’s.

That’s not to say that their pitching is bad by any means, but they have a surplus of pitchers who have outproduced their FIPs/xFIPs by a substantial amount and are looking to sell high.

by JLC on Nov 8, 2010 2:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Thank you, I was only looking at their surface numbers.

It’s good to hear that they have a good chance to regress next year.

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 3:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Thank you.

I wish there was some clear mechanism in place, since this
there are negotiations and talks between the posting team and interested MLB teams to gauge whether or not there’s serious interest.
may not be so much a deterrent to “inscrupulous” teams.

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 3:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Screw the Japanese reports calling us favorites to land him

Our bid was reportedly lower than their asking price. Rosenthal shot that down right away and his report is looking more correct by the minute.

by ThundaPC on Nov 8, 2010 8:55 AM PST up reply actions  

This just frees us up to get that shortstop.

Right?…… RIGHT?

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 8, 2010 9:01 AM PST up reply actions  

I thought my point would be easy to get. But sorry maybe I should have added more detail.

IF this “conspiracy theory” is correct, the A’s are going to lowball him in contract negotiations.

If he refuses to sign they get their 16 million back. This $16M is virtual money as long as the deal doesn’t go through.

Actually the bid could be more than 16 million. What gives?

In the case that he does sign unexpectedly extremely cheaply they will have got a good piece.

But I hope I’m wrong and there is some viable mechanism to block such shit. Such as if the deal falls through, the second highest bid (if the Japanese team accepts) team gets a chance to negotiate with the player.

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 1:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Was the winning bid for $16 MM?

As far as I’ve heard, the bid price hasn’t been announced.

by nathaniel dawson on Nov 8, 2010 2:43 PM PST up reply actions  

I think it could be even more,

since I read somewhere that the A’s bid was more than what the Japanese team expected, and they were supposedly looking for 16 million to 17.5 million.

(Which is why it stunk of a block to me. That seems way too much for a legitimate bid. Especially since we’re talking about the cheapskate A’s.)

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Except that to keep the Comissioner's Office and Players Union happy,

teams that receive a good portion of profit sharing are expected to use that money to acquire talent. They’re going to have to go out and spend it in some way, whether it be for Iwakuma or traditional free agents.

by nathaniel dawson on Nov 8, 2010 4:42 PM PST up reply actions  

OK, I didn't know the A's got so much cash.

We probably didn’t get much, right?
This offseason looks pretty grim. (sigh)

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 7:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Hiroyuki Nakajima.

Hasn’t been posted yet.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 8, 2010 12:24 PM PST up reply actions  

And Seibu might not post him at all, was the latest news.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 8, 2010 12:28 PM PST up reply actions  

But with the freaking A's making what looks like a 16+ million dollar bid even if he gets posted our chances may be slim.

What with possible fucking blocks (I think) and some teams flush with cash.

By the way, I read somewhere that the A’s bid was more than what the Japanese team expected, and they were supposedly looking for 16 million to 17.5 million!

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 1:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Everyone knew Iwakuma was going to make money as the second best pitcher in Japan.

Nakajima is possibly the second best hitter, but he has some question marks that might keep the bidding to a reasonable level.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 8, 2010 2:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Besides...

think of this relative to the Matsuzaka bid where the Red Sox knocked everyone out by $11 million.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 8, 2010 2:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, that's true, the Matsuzaka thing was crazy.

But then Matsuzaka was their Pedro Martinez in his prime, while Iwakuma is probably something like Colby Lewis+ alpha?

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 4:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Sorry I may be way off with the analogy of Iwakuma.

But a Colby Lewis+ alpha is probably better than anything we have except for Felix (and Pineda, but he can’t really count yet).

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 4:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Didn't know about the question marks.

I was pretty excited about Nakajima because he looked great for the Mariners to me.
And he seemed “under the radar”, so initially thought we might snag him reasonably, but when the A’s (if legit) are dishing out such big bucks it looks grim even if he manages to get posted. (I read that he wants to come over pretty strongly).

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 4:12 PM PST up reply actions  

His plate discipline and contact skills aren't extraordinary and his power is probably gap at best.

Some also don’t seem to be convinced he’ll stay at short. He’s not bad, but he’s not going to bust on the scene and turn into a star.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 8, 2010 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Thank you.

At least he looks better than that Josh/Jack Wilson thing.
But I understand not at a high price tag.

The bad thing in general this offseason is that our needs are great, but it seems the other teams have more cash to throw around. Even unlikely teams.

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 8, 2010 7:57 PM PST up reply actions  

We'll have cash next offseason and make a run in '12.

In the short term is where we need to test things out for the future and keep our contracts brief and manageable.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 8, 2010 8:42 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

In an interesting twist

I see here: http://twitter.com/JHickey3/status/2170129353801728
that Hickey says, the M’s never bid on Iwakuma to begin with.

Wow could it be true.

Well in any case I hope they’re saving their posting money for a fielder (hitter). Nishioka?

by NeighborTom2 on Nov 9, 2010 5:39 PM PST reply actions  

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