Ken Griffey Jr Signs With Justin Upton's No-Trade List
by Matthew on Nov 23, 2010 3:08 PM PST
in Seattle Mariners Regular News
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PrintBy now you have seen that Justin Upton's agent tweeted that the Mariners are not in fact on Upton's list of teams that he would prefer not to be traded to. Unless you hadn't seen it. Except now you have. So I was right anyways.
What this means is pure conjecture and probably nothing. Some might be curious why the agency would go out of their way to mention the Mariners if there wasn't something there, but I think that's a bit of hopeful reaching. An ulterior motive does not need to exist behind simply setting the record straight.
Nonetheless, that is encouraging news if you like Justin Upton. Actually, it's encouraging news no matter what. Having options is always better than not having options and I can certainly be glad that the Mariners have an opportunity to ply Upton away from Arizona without yet endorsing whatever package would ultimately be needed.
If you are starving and all you have are some of those non-edible rocks and I'm standing here with a bushel of apples, there's no way that you are worse off by asking how many rocks I might want for an apple. It may turn out that I only want some fresh vanilla-scented candles for my apples. It could also turn out that the rocks you give me are diamonds and you're just too stupid to know what diamonds are. But it could also turn out that I really like plain ol' dumb rocks. I could be some sort of diplodocid.
The point is that having the option to ask is not harmful. The moves that arise out of that can be, but it's important to separate those. It's a one-way street at the moment and that's better than a dead end.
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This whole situation scares the crap out of me.
I just feel it in my bones that we’ll end up regretting this deal, if it is in fact made. When have we come out winners in a trade? I supoooose I could live with Ackley being traded, but Smoak and Pineda? Is Upton really THAT good?
Only time will tell and I’ll try not getting too worked up before anything actually happens.
Wimners in a trade?
Both Cliff Lee deals and the Putz trade off the top of my head.
by Mariner John on Nov 23, 2010 3:27 PM PST up reply actions
See, I could give up Smoak and Pineda, but I'd hate to lose Ackley.
Justin Upton is awesome though. He’s a proven quantity at the MLB level, and is still very young with a reasonable contract.
Ok, ok, ok.
That wasn’t the main point of my response and I should not have written that. I suppose just the bad ones seem to stick out more.
I'm Fine with Smoak as a key to this trade
But I don’t want Ackley or Pineda anywhere near it.
by MattoB on Nov 23, 2010 4:11 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
I would set Pineda on fire if it meant getting Upton in a Mariners' uniform.
by PissedMick on Nov 23, 2010 8:01 PM PST up reply actions 7 recs
I'm with you here. Pitching prospects are very iffy, get me Mr. Upton.
Pitchers like King Felix don’t come around very often and I don’t believe Pineda is another Felix.
by TrustBaseball on Nov 23, 2010 10:27 PM PST up reply actions
A Franklin/Ackley/Smoak infield could be pretty awesome too.
We need an awesome third base prospect.
Sorry, Franklin?
Who dat be? This thread is really crushing any cred I may have had around here.
Love the game, love the beer, love your team.
by THolt on Nov 23, 2010 7:08 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
RENDON!
More realistically, Morla!
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
Converting him to someone who could hit worth a damn would be nice
by Graham MacAree on Nov 24, 2010 6:42 AM PST up reply actions 5 recs
Desme style?
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Nov 24, 2010 9:57 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No wonder they were talking about putting Pineiro in the bullpen.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
If we give up Smoak, who plays 1st base?
Please don’t say Russell Branyan.
Don't both Uptons play OF?
I’m curious. We want Saunders to develop, Smoak is very promising… I think the only way this works out is if we see another GMZ magical fairy dust trade.
Love the game, love the beer, love your team.
by THolt on Nov 23, 2010 6:51 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Sorry, I was on mobile when I made that post.
JU does play RF… where could we shuffle people to make this work, assuming none of Smoak, Ackley or Pineda are included. How are the D-Backs on character? Leuke as a component, perhaps?
Love the game, love the beer, love your team.
Justin Upton is the right field equivalent of Felix Hernandez.
If you are under the impression we can get him without our top prospects you are so mistaken that it hurts a little.
...and now I'm here
I hadn't taken the time to look him up.
You are correct. I’d like to see Saunders included. then. I’m too enamored by the trio above to want to pull the trigger. Plus, JU is a righty, isn’t he? I don’t know how the D-Back’s park has factored in, but we all know about righties at Safeco.
Love the game, love the beer, love your team.
And then I read the posts below.
Love the game, love the beer, love your team.
Well, another option is that Saunders is included in the trade
Saunders, Lueke, and one of Smoak/Pineda/Ackley, for instance.
I would think Saunders is most certainly in the deal as he would be redundant.
Also, Lueke is probably also going because the FO can’t afford to carry his PR nightmare. I just hope it’s not Ackeley and Smoak. I’m ok with Pineda going south.
by TrustBaseball on Nov 23, 2010 10:31 PM PST up reply actions
I would rather have Upton with Branyan at first
than no Upton and Smoak at first.
I'm just floored by how diversely we M's fans value our top three
So many people are like “I’m okay with Ackley/Smoak/Pineda and Smoak/Pineda/Ackley being traded for Upton, but if the deal includes Pineda/Ackley/Smoak, then NO WAY!”
Has anyone else noticed this and thought it curious?
by egreenlaw9 on Nov 23, 2010 8:32 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Yes, I've also found this strange
Though it’s been looking (both here and elsewhere) that folks are MOST inclined to KEEP Ackley and LEAST inclined to keep Pineda. Smoak tends to be the most variable.
That's EXACTLY what I was thinking
But in explaining to my girlfriend why all three are valuable pieces… I’m not even sure who I’d be more upset at losing.
For me, in terms of who I’d like to keep, it would be Smoak (just because Ackley – as a hitter – is very much like what Figgins was supposed to be, and kinda like Ichiro; if we didn’t have even one of those, Ackley would be my number one), then Ackley, then Pineda (because pitchers are more likely to get hurt/be busts).
Thoughts?
I'd go Ackley-Smoak-Pineda.
Ackley has the highest floor of any prospect I can remember coming through the organization. He is almost a lock to contribute in one way or another at the Major League level, and one reason why I think so many folks are reluctant to trade him away. He may not have Pineda’s upside, but he more than makes up for it in certainty.
Smoak is second because he has an excellent multi-year track record, and guys who have repeatedly done well in the minors have a better chance at sustained success than others. He is also the closest of the three to making an impact at the major league level and has already played at said level. He is thus, no longer a prospect but a very valuable piece nonetheless.
Pineda is an excellent prospect and is definitely one of the top 10 pitchers in the minors. He could develop into a top-tier pitcher in the future, but he has the farthest of these three to get there. He still has moderate control issues, and while he’s shown the ability to absolutely dominate hitters we have to remember that pitchers are much more volatile and prone to variations in ability. The injury he incurred in 2009 is still lingering in the back of our minds as well.
M's fan in PA, soon to be LA
by perfectstrat on Nov 23, 2010 9:06 PM PST up reply actions
Seeing this...
I think I’m okay with giving up ONE of “The Big Three” for Upton, along with whatever else (Lopez, Saunders, Lueke, Ardsma, Franklin, Cortez)… but not more than that.
I know this is obvious but restated… Upton’s WAR HAS to be worth more than the total WAR from the players given up (-1 WAR I would imagine, just for combining them all in to one position)….
I just don’t see that happening if we give up more than one of the big three. Sorry, but that’s one too many “A” list prospects.
It's been said before, but suppose that Felix pitches for Arizona and we're trading for him.
One of Ackley/Smaok/Pineda plus a bunch of interesting and/or useless pieces (why did you include Lopez in there?) absolutely wouldn’t be enough. And if you think that two of them for Felix is too much, you’re severely overvaluing your prospects.
Two things...
One is my post…. Lopez? He’s ours to trade till we non-tender him….
Two for Felix?
I get that. I even used that analogy (Felix being worth more by WAR expectancy over the next 5 years) to try and make my girlfriend understand how big of a deal it would be if we actually somehow GET Upton….
But Felix is a proven, Cy Young Award winning even ;) established major league veteran at this point. Upton is still just an underachieving much-hyped and possibly-to-obtain, MLB prospect. Felix might be worth less in the long haul… but right now… the King is undoubatably worth more.
You understand me right?
Upton was worth 3 wins when he was doing poorly with an injured shoulder.
He’s also on the aging curve that makes it obscenely likely he gains power (peak at 27) and we’d have him for 5 years. Also, position players are less of an injury risk to make up for some of the risk of a player that has not reached 7 wins yet.
Upton and Felix really are rough equivalents of each other in value, so yeah he really is worth as much as we’ve been hyping it. Again, whether or not to do it because of the state of our current team and farm system is different, but Upton is an incredible player and whatever team ends up with him should cry with happiness.
...and now I'm here
Oh my god Arizona needs to hurry the fuck up and trade Justin fucking Upton or I am going to go ape shit reading all these goddamned trade scenarios from Hell's ass.
by JLC on Nov 23, 2010 9:58 PM PST reply actions 6 recs
I can't, I'm an MLB highlight addict.
My wife says it makes her feel inadequate, and I use company time looking at the clips… they’re just so hot. My therapist says I have an addiction to internet MLB clips; I say I just like watching pitchers penetrate their catchers’ gloves. I suck at playing, so I like watching. And whenever I watch, I can’t help but rosterbate. When I finish, I hit a frozen roper or three into my own glove.
Love the game, love the beer, love your team.
by THolt on Nov 24, 2010 12:41 AM PST up reply actions 7 recs
It is not wrong to rosterbate. We all do it.
However, it should be done in the privacy of one’s own home. Public rosterbation is uncomfortable for those of us that may be exposed to your actions. Each of us has our own fantasies that we rosterbate to. These fantasies are unique to each of us. Sharing them with others just causes debates that have no correct answer over who is hot enough to rosterbate over. I am not trying to put you down. I rosterbate several times a day. I just think you should think about doing it in the privacy of your own home to help keep this blog from becumming too contentious.
Here's the thing I think we are all missing on this.
We all get that Upton>Saunders SO BAD, but if we end up trading any combination of Ackley/Smoak/Pineda, +whatever else, where are we getting QUALITY PLAYERS to fill their spots? I think we all assumed before a couple of days ago that at the very least all three of those players would spend time in the bigs this year, so why is it that fans are in such a hurry to trade away these guys so we can have a terrible team with a few great players versus a TEAM filled with decent-to-good players? (and still a few great players to boot?) I mean, COME ON, PEOPLE….tell me how this is supposed to make us a better TEAM?
I agree
We aren’t really in a great position to be wiping out our farm system for one guy. I’m not all that excited about watching opposing pitchers intentionally walk Upton to get at our first baseman who is a guy the M’s found lying in the gutter in Pioneer Square before the game.
I would agree with you if a baseball team didn't consist of about 16 top-end players
I would also agree if I thought there was any chance of competing next year. But since there isn’t, there’s no harm at all in fixing one gigantic whole with a long term solution for a downgrade elsewhere – we can fix those downgrades.
by Graham MacAree on Nov 24, 2010 6:49 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed.
I really don’t want another Erik Bedard scenario and that’s exactly what this looks like to me. Maybe 2 out of the big 3 but not all 3. I can’t say I’ll be disappointed if Upton ends up going somewhere else. Ackley, Pineda and Smoak could all be the type of players that teams give up their farm for down the road and it would pain me to see that happen to all 3 in Arizona. Not likely but definitely possible.
How you figure?
Like Bedard Upton also has a history with injury. Like Bedard it appears he will cost several key pieces in the farm system. Like Bedard we could end up with repeated and shortened production due to injury while the prospects we give up could flourish. Sure looks like it could be another Bedard situation to me.
Unlike Bedard.
We’re talking about FIVE seasons of Upton vs. TWO seasons of Bedard. We would control Upton longer than we would control Felix.
Unlike Bedard, Justin Upton is a hitter (less of an injury risk than pitchers). He’s been in at least 130 games in the last two seasons with an average of about 4 WAR.
Unlike Bedard, Justin Upton is really young and is not even close to hitting his prime. And he’s basically already what you’d hope Ackley and Smoak can accomplish in the big leagues.
Risky or not, this is nothing like Bedard.
It appears you are taking what i said the wrong way.
Technically I did say ‘exactly’ but I’m talking about an Erik Bedard scenario. Obviously the specific details are not exactly the same but the end result could be very similar. You end up with a guy that’s hurt on a regular basis while your prospects shine elsewhere.
So basically a worst-case scenario.
That risk exists in any trade featuring valuable pieces. Of course, there also exists as scenario where Upton shines and the players we send over there flop.
No matter what happens, I trust Z in trades. He's doing pretty good on that as a GM right now.
I am the master of my fate; I am the captain of my soul - Invictus
Upton can now breathe an air of relief because these things were on his chest alike a tone of brinks. Just like you say having options is one important thing in life, all I say is I wish him the best he has a cool future
You make me fly - Jordan
by ghorbanejadhossein on Nov 24, 2010 8:42 AM PST reply actions
Keep Ackley
I’d offer Pineda, Smoak, Saunders and change, but not Ackley. What Ackley just did to the AFL was sick and he can contribute more on defense than Smoak. There are several 1B options out there that won’t cost too much. Pineda is a pitcher meaning he could go up in smoke (pun regretted) at any time. Saunders is expendable if we get Upton…and might just not be very good.
But given the fact that Upton has so much value, I think you have to seriously question the fact that he’s being offered at all. Especially now, while his shoulder is still “healing” and suitors won’t be able to determine its long-term condition. Unless he can show his shoulder’s in good shape…no deal.
That is a good point there.
Does anyone know why Arizona is even considering this? It would seem like he would be a great asset to hang on to.
thats easy-
He is their most desirable asset, therefore in order to A)rebuild on the fly or B) restock a farm system, you trade your most fungible asset, i.e. Upton. He is the piece that moves the most talent back the other way.
by megamanflx1 on Nov 24, 2010 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
Upton to Felix comparisons are a bit too much for me
Considering Felix just won a Cy and almost won one last year, and the fact that he dominates the best lineups on a regular basis. Upton, while awesome and young, is not very close to winning the MVP any time soon, and doesn’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of Ace pitching. I’d love to see him in an M’s uniform though!
by Darth Flamingo on Nov 24, 2010 10:12 PM PST reply actions
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