On Brandon McCarthy, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, And The A's
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 22, 2010 10:44 AM PST
in Miscellaneous
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PrintI hope you weren't expecting these points to be related to each other. The only thing these points have in common is that they all show up in this post. Which also gives them something in common with Kobe beef, now.
- Jon Morosi lists the Mariners as one of the teams scouting Brandon McCarthy in winter ball. This is Brandon McCarthy's career in a nutshell:
Pre-2005: Baseball America's 49th-best prospect in the league
Post-2006: Traded to Rangers for John Danks
Post-2010: Outrighted at 27, granted free agency
McCarthy's a budget starter who once showed a great degree of promise, and you can expect to see the M's linked to a number of these guys over the course of the offseason. And who knows, maybe McCarthy ends up coming over. If he does, he'll be interesting, but you can only expect so much from an extreme flyballer who averages 89 with his heat, and who has a history of injuries. Always remember that cheap players are cheap for a reason. - Also via Morosi, the window to submit a bid for Tsuyoshi Nishioka closes tomorrow. Nishioka, if you haven't heard, is a Japanese 2B/SS who last year led the league in batting, and the M's were said to have some degree of interest in making a try. Were the M's to sign Nishioka, one would wonder what it meant for the future of Jack Wilson, but then you'd realize you were wondering about the future of Jack Wilson, and you'd stop wondering. Whether Nishioka is actually a good player or not is up in the air, but fortunately, if he wound up with Seattle, our standards are all low enough that he could get a hero's welcome with a 1-4.
- In a new twist, it appears that talks between the A's and Hisashi Iwakuma have broken off, and Iwakuma will return to his old team in Japan for the 2011 season before becoming a free agent next winter. Reading through agent Don Nomura's recent Twitter history is interesting, in that you at least get one side of what went wrong. In short, the problem was what the problem always is - the team didn't offer the kind of money the player and agent were looking for. I think my favorite part was Nomura's assertion that Oakland's $64m/5yr offer to Adrian Beltre was made for PR purposes. I think the situation may be a little testy.
I know Oakland spooked a good number of us by appearing so active so quickly. Perhaps there's less to worry about than we figured.
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There goes that Beane!
Makin’ friends!
Every time you masturbate... God kills a kitten? Fuck kittens.
loving conspiracy theories...
you have to wonder if the A’s threw a big bidding figure out there, never intending to really negotiate seriously with the guy just to keep him away from division rivals. Reading that agent account, it sounded like they were speed dating and decided there wasn’t a love connection.
That idea doesn't jive with the reported bid amount.
The Japanese team wanted something in the $16 million range and Oakland bids $18 million with the sole intention to keep him away from division rivals? That’s risking a lot from Oakland’s perspective for no reason. If your only goal is to block him, why not bid $25 million? There’s obviously other factors at play.
Don't they get their money back if they don't make a deal?
by tootthekazoo on Nov 22, 2010 11:38 AM PST up reply actions
Yes
But if the A’s were just in it to block their rivals, it stands to reason that they would’ve made an enormous bid, rather than a bid that easily could’ve been topped.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 22, 2010 11:42 AM PST up reply actions
I'd have to agree with CapSea
A huge bid followed by a lowball offer would look suspicious. If Oakland wanted to screw other teams, they could put in a high bid, and if somebody topped that, they’ve made sure the other team has spent a crapload for Nishioka.
by nathaniel dawson on Nov 22, 2010 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
Good point.
The A’s better be banned from bidding the next couple years.
by NeighborTom2 on Nov 23, 2010 12:41 AM PST up reply actions
That's a terrible idea
and would punish all 29 other MLB teams
His point was that 18 isn't very far above what the Japanese team wanted, so someone else
could have outbid them, but if the A’s bid 25, it would be pretty much a guarantee that no one else outbid them.
That would also be too obvious though, and it doesn't sound like it is a silent bid.
So 18 million could have been the offer made after some other team bid 17 million. The other teams balked, and Oakland didn’t have to raise their bid. Unless the bidding process is silent, but I don’t think that Boston went to 50 million on Daisuke because bidding took place blind.
...and now I'm here
It is sealed bids.
Although with the way the MLB rumor mill works, it wouldn’t surprise me if bid amounts got leaked to other teams.
by nathaniel dawson on Nov 22, 2010 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
Nishioka
Wouldn’t the ‘plan’ of signing him be a good idea? I’m not talking about him specifically because opinions vary, but it seems like he’s not going to get that outlandish of a contract, so you pay the posting fee in what seems to be a down year and potentially have a valuable contract down the road in years you’re planning on contending in? If that makes any sense.
(I’m using Ichiro as an example: Didn’t we pay about 13 million to post him and signed him for 3/14 million, so you’re getting huge value in years 2 and 3… right? Or do they account for the posting fee by impacting several year’s budgets?)
Also, I know there’s only one Ichiro. I’m just asking if this type of move could land us a good player on a valuable contract in years 2012-2013 when our odds of competing are better?
Everybody has always believed that the Mariners get posting fees from some other part of their budget.
It doesn’t come out of the player payroll budget. Where it comes from and how they amortize it, I couldn’t tell you.
by nathaniel dawson on Nov 22, 2010 3:00 PM PST up reply actions
Nishioka at a reasonable price is worth considering.
How much is reasonable is in the eyes of the beholder. He’s got a track record and talent at desirable positions. I trust Z’s judgement on him. I like him but I’m no GM.
So Brandon McCarthy was #49 on BA's 2005 top prospects list?
16 spots ahead of him at #33 was Jeremy Reed.
6 spots ahead of Jeremy at #27 was Ryan Howard.
Old top prospect lists are funny.
Three spots ahead of McCarthy?
Yusmeiro Petit.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
#1 and #2 were Mauer and Felix.
Then again, 4, 5, & 6 were Ian Stewart, Casey Kotchman, and Joel Guzman.
Old BA lists are so fun/awesome/hilarious.
Jeff, as Mariners fans I do not think you have to remind us that "cheap players are cheap for a reason."
We saw several examples of that this past year. We also saw several examples of “Why the hell are you paying these guys that kind of money?” We also got the answer to the question “What happens to your offense when 5 of the 9 batting positions have negative WAR?” We are wise beyond our years, or at least most of us are. Personally, the years are winning out but I still get most of this stuff.
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