Bill James Mainer projections

by jackyz on Nov 14, 2010 8:32 PM PST

The Bill James projections are out on fangraphs already, so that means we know exactly what to expect from the Mariners in 2011.

HITTING

Justin Smoak: .249/.351/.414,19 HR

This would be reasonable but a bit dissapointing, especially given that he projected Jesus Montero to have a .285/.348/.519 with 21 HR.

Dustin Ackley: .239/.325/.358, 3 HR

This would be discouraging as well, but I would'nt expect a good season out of Ackley either, in his rookie year.

Jack Wilson: .261/.305/.355, 4 HR

I really don't want him on our team next season

Chone Figgins: .277/.360/.348, 3 HR

I really like Chone Figgins, and would be happy with a season like this

Michael Saunders: .242/.315/.388, 10 HR

He really can't afford another bad season. I would hope he has a better year for sure.

Franklin Gutierrez: .261/.323/.401, 14 HR

Given he has a better defensive year than last, he can still land a 3-4 WAR with this kind of offensive production, which would be nice.

Ichiro Suzuki: .316/.361/.391, 7 HR

Looks almost the exact same as last year, but we can still expect another 4-5 WAR from him.

Adam Moore: .254/.300/.389, 10 HR

I don't think Adam Moore will turn into much, but a something like this, would raise a little optimism.

Milton Bradley: .257/.366/.429, 10 HR

I doubt he will be the DH next year, but he's the only one that fits with the current roster. I like Milton, and this is would'nt be a bad season.

PITCHING

Felix Hernandez: 3.31 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 8.23 K/9, 2.91 BB/9

Jason Vargas: 4.29 ERA, 4.39 FIP, 6.23 K/9, 3.09 BB/9

Doug Fister: 4.11 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 5.95 K/9, 2.07 BB/9

Michael Pineda: I guess Bill James forgot about him or something, because there are no projections available.

OVERVIEW:

Needless to say, the roster will change between now and the start of the season, but this season will be better than last. These projections look like an awful team, which probably will be true, but the remarkable thing is that every position players wOBA is projected to be higher than last years player at that position.

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Comments

Bill James predictions are more or less useless

Somehow he manages to be optimistic on both pitchers and hitters

by Graham MacAree on Nov 14, 2010 9:32 PM PST reply actions

Yeah

I prefer ZiPS

by jackyz on Nov 14, 2010 9:54 PM PST up reply actions

Everybody gets a trophy!

by ThomasG on Nov 15, 2010 5:56 AM PST up reply actions

Historically the Bill James projections have been nuts

It’s a bit sobering that those are likely optimistic projections

by Poochie on Nov 14, 2010 11:14 PM PST reply actions 2 recs

I am not really sure what to expect out of Chone Figgins next year

so I am not sure if:

277/.360/.348, 3 HR

is optimistic or pessimistic.

Hasta tu suenos.

by quacker27 on Nov 14, 2010 11:50 PM PST reply actions

For Figgins

3 HR will always be incredibly optimistic.

Chad Brown for the Ring of Honor!

by Big Seahawk Loser on Nov 15, 2010 2:42 PM PST up reply actions

I'm familiar with James being being consistently optimistic on prospects/young players

is the same true for veterans? I was always under the impression that his projections for established players were more reasonable. It certainly makes the numbers above look more appealing, thinking that way.

by PissedMick on Nov 15, 2010 5:52 AM PST reply actions

As far as I know the league average hitting and pitching are fairly radically different

That’ll alter everyone’s projections.

by Graham MacAree on Nov 16, 2010 7:27 AM PST up reply actions

Hmm. I'd have assumed he'd be predicting more lobsters, potatoes, and maple syrup for this group.

by ThomasG on Nov 15, 2010 5:55 AM PST reply actions 11 recs

I will not be happy if I have to hear Smoak/Montero comparisons for their entire careers.

by Kenneth Arthur on Nov 15, 2010 8:20 AM PST reply actions

Maybe Blake Beaven will suddenly find the 4 MPH he's lost off his fastball since high school

by seattlebruin on Nov 15, 2010 9:15 AM PST up reply actions

We should have drafted Lincecum

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 15, 2010 10:24 AM PST up reply actions

We should have drafted David Wright over Michael Garciaparra.

Why, it’s been eleven days since I’ve had the opportunity to say that. It feels like longer.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 15, 2010 10:38 AM PST up reply actions

But then that would mean we would have to trade Felix for Michael Garciaparra.

by ThomasG on Nov 15, 2010 10:49 AM PST up reply actions

It's as though we have no choice.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors

by JY on Nov 15, 2010 11:16 AM PST up reply actions

Well, the Mets need an ace-like starter and the M's would presumably need another quad-A washout.

So, they should obviously do that deal.

by ThomasG on Nov 15, 2010 11:21 AM PST up reply actions

I won't mind if the comparisons favor Smoak

by nathaniel dawson on Nov 15, 2010 1:58 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

If my name was Bill James Mainer, I would probably go by Bill James too.

by Janic on Nov 15, 2010 9:16 AM PST reply actions 7 recs

Montero with an .867 OPS after playing AA last year is pretty ridiculous

Reminds me of when BP projected Matt Wieters as the 3rd best position player in baseball in his rookie year.

Yes, we have a coupon.

by Crystal for DH on Nov 15, 2010 9:48 PM PST reply actions

I hated seeing those headlines. "WIETERS: BEST PROSPECT EVER?"

It makes every other BEST PROSPECT EVER hard to get excited about.

I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.

by HititHere on Nov 16, 2010 9:48 AM PST up reply actions

No wonder Steve Phillips thinks we should trade Smoak for Prince Fielder

by Poochie on Nov 16, 2010 9:22 AM PST reply actions

Any relation to Mainer James Keenan?

by Mariner John on Nov 17, 2010 5:51 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

So Felix's ERA is going to jump a whole run next year?

Bill James must have some fucked up math, cause uhhhh he’s saying that teams are going to score basically 150% more on him next season. Maybe Venezuelans just age faster?

by Darth Flamingo on Nov 18, 2010 10:53 PM PST reply actions