World Series Preview

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 25, 2010 7:08 PM PDT in Looking Ahead

Now it's tradition.

CONTEXT

The Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants will face each other in the 2010 World Series, which begins on Wednesday. The Rangers have advanced this far by defeating the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees. The Giants have advanced this far by defeating the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies. Both the Rangers and Giants managed to defeat their opponents by outplaying them in a short series.

KEY PLAYERS

Texas:

Roster

San Francisco:

Roster

Both the Rangers and Giants are filled to the brim with possible difference-makers. The 50 listed above will likely be the most important.

KEY QUESTIONS

Can the San Francisco Giants outscore the Texas Rangers?

They can.

Can the Texas Rangers outscore the San Francisco Giants?

They can.

Will one of the San Francisco Giants and Texas Rangers outscore the other four times?

Most certainly yes!

X FACTOR

The Giants will play a maximum of four games at home, while the Rangers will play a maximum of three games at home. The home crowds may or may not help. I imagine there are also intangibles somewhere.

CONCLUSION

Both the Giants and Rangers are good teams. The Rangers are probably better by a tiny bit. If you re-played the World Series a million times, maybe 50-55% of the time the Rangers would be crowned as champions. This World Series will be played once. One of these teams will win four games. The other probably won't. The outcome will mean everything, and nothing.

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Comments

What a captivating copout. It was a good read with no analysis.

I once accused Robert of being Dewey N, because I didn't know it was Fogel. I suck with context clues.

by thehemogoblin on Oct 25, 2010 7:10 PM PDT reply actions

You haven't been around here very long, have you?

by slamcactus on Oct 25, 2010 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions

January.

A while, but… yeah. I dropped the ball on this one.

I once accused Robert of being Dewey N, because I didn't know it was Fogel. I suck with context clues.

by thehemogoblin on Oct 25, 2010 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Morgan Ensberg for Manager 2011!
AL Scout on Rendon: "I would peg him as a poor man's Jose Lopez."

by joof on Oct 25, 2010 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I love the subtle differences between percentages in each post.

by ThundaPC on Oct 25, 2010 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Shit takes work

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 25, 2010 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

You have a career waiting for you in college textbook writing!

Write it once, revise it slightly every couple years, and surf home every night on a high tide of money!

by pdb on Oct 25, 2010 9:23 PM PDT up reply actions

In my experience, a lot of college textbook writers also teach classes

I cannot imagine being less interested in anything

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 25, 2010 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions

And I have a folder full of 401k documents literally right next to me

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 25, 2010 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Just get tenured, then make a TA do all that pesky teaching while you write

easy!

by pdb on Oct 25, 2010 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions

No matter how happy I am in life, I will never be as happy as I'd be as an heir

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 25, 2010 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions

This is pretty much my life dream

by pdb on Oct 25, 2010 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions

God damn parents

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 25, 2010 9:53 PM PDT up reply actions

You seem worthless

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 25, 2010 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions 37 recs

You seem mean!!

by Dewey N on Oct 25, 2010 7:37 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

You are absolutely correct.

"Sometimes you just want to sit back and watch somebody throw 100." - Jeff Passan on Neftali Feliz

"Baseball's all that's real" - JB

by Ryin A on Oct 25, 2010 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions

I find it interesting how much quicker you arrived at this

correct conclusion.

If Brad Pitt is playing Beane who do you want playing you?
JD: Eddie Guardado.

by GhettoBear04 on Oct 27, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

It seems like Jeff may have written a post like this already

by seattlebruin on Oct 25, 2010 7:19 PM PDT up reply actions

I love the yearly world series preview!

Morgan Ensberg for Manager 2011!
AL Scout on Rendon: "I would peg him as a poor man's Jose Lopez."

by joof on Oct 25, 2010 7:41 PM PDT reply actions

...just new audiences

by Poochie on Oct 25, 2010 8:03 PM PDT reply actions

I'm curious, Jeff.

Because you are a smart baseball person, how many wins do you think a true-talent 90 win NL team would have in the AL? Interleague record has been .558 through the last cycle and .563 through the last two cycles. Am I reading that incorrectly if I think that means a .500 team in the AL could be expected to go about .560 in the NL?

I felt that also seemed like a pretty good estimate because it also seems kind of close to the rule of thumb I’ve heard from a few sources saying a two win player from the AL could be expected to put up about 2.5 wins.

Anyway, I ask all this because I’m working on simulating the series and it comes out pretty close without adjusting for league quality, but much less close than 50-55% if the Rangers are given a .06% edge for league quality in every game.

These are honest questions.

SB Nation Dallas-Ft. Worth - Christopher Fittz is better than porn!

by philkid3 on Oct 25, 2010 8:15 PM PDT reply actions

The first thing I'll say is that 50-55% was randomly generated

I didn’t do a whole analysis and I think the Giants are well-built for the playoffs.

As for your question, I would say somewhere in the mid-80s. Again, no precise answer, and if you’re referring to the Giants, I’m not comfortable calling them a true-talent 90 win NL team anyway. That’s about what they were over the full season, but they’re very different now. They’re not really using Aaron Rowand, or Nate Schierholz, or Barry Zito, or Todd Wellemeyer, or Bengie Molina, or any number of other guys. The Giants – and Rangers – are very good teams right now. Better than their records.

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 25, 2010 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions

WHY DO YOU STATS PEOPLE ALWAYS IGNORE TANGIBLES

by pdb on Oct 25, 2010 9:01 PM PDT reply actions 7 recs

IT'S LIKE YOU DON'T EVEN WATCH THE GAMES

by pdb on Oct 25, 2010 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions

You can't get tv over the internet to your basements!

Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.

by JAH on Oct 25, 2010 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Like we're even stats people anymore

by Poochie on Oct 25, 2010 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh, I get it. Tangibles!

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Oct 26, 2010 2:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Is that like Lunchables?

by Decatur on Oct 26, 2010 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions

as a Rangers fan -- nice preview

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Oct 25, 2010 9:46 PM PDT reply actions

also, as much as I can't root for you guys during the season

I do hope the Mariners make it to the World Series, and you guys get the feeling we have now. Long suffering fans deserve this, and it’s incredible. 1977 seems like ages ago (as 1972 and 1961 for us does), and here’s hoping you don’t have to wait that long for your chance to enjoy a WS party.

Saying that, I still hope to beat you guys as much as possible. You’re a rival.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.

by NothinG on Oct 25, 2010 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs