Are the Mariners looking to deal Figgins?
by grover on Oct 19, 2010 5:47 PM PDT
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PrintI just can’t appreciate post-season baseball when the Oakland A’s aren’t participating. I start thinking about how the A’s could get better during the offseason pretty much the day it becomes clear they aren’t going to make the play-offs during a given season. Chone Figgins is a player I’ve liked for a while and in the past week I’ve come across two articles that have at the very least suggested that the Mariners would like to see their time with Figgins come to an earlier-than-scheduled end. I don’t usually pay a lot of attention to Internet innuendo but when a team is coming off a 101 loss season and has (per Cot’s) about $70 million committed to 7 players in 2011 it does beg the question… could Seattle be looking to do a major overhaul of their roster and are they interested in moving Chone Figgins?
So I come to a place where people pay close attention to such things.
I’m including a poll that (hopefully) includes all the reasonable courses of action. If you feel that Figgins is a key piece in the Mariners plans for 2011 than please say so… I come seeking knowledge on this point, not to start a flame war with anyone. If you feel the Mariners might (or should) be looking to trade Figgins than please include a response outlining which scenario seems most likely and what areas of need Seattle would seek to fill if they made a trade. I think Figgins is good for a bounce back year in 2011 and I’d like to see that happen in Oakland if the two teams could find a fair agreement. I’m curious to know what a fair deal means to those with an obvious Mariner bias.
And if this sort of post isn’t your cup o’ tea, let me at least try to send you off with a smile…
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As much as the fans have bashed on Figgins underperformance this year,
I sincerely hope that he sticks around next year. I have no clue what the Mariners plans are at this point, but most people have speculated that he will be moving to third base and Jose Lopez will be gone. This also clears up second base for a mid-season Ackley call up.
Figgins was actually hitting pretty good for the last few months this year, and I hope that means he is settling in. I think he could be a good contributor next year. Of people that played the whole season, he was still the second best hitter on the team this year.
I really think he deserves another shot here in Seattle. I always secretly liked him when he was an Angel, and I would really like to see him succeed and stick with the M’s. I also feel this way about Milton Bradley though, so…
Chone Figgins
I think the best case scenario for trading Figgins is for the trading partner to take his entire salary.
Figgins isn’t as useful to the team as he would’ve been had the 2010 Mariners not collapsed but he still provides some use to the team. We don’t have any serious options at 3B so he’ll likely play there for some time to come.
I’d say a trade is not out of the question but it’s definitely not the team’s primary objective.
On a side note: I did not realize Chone Figgins had managed to start 161 games at 2B! Not bad for an experiment.
So what is the team's primary objective?
And if the A’s were willing to take on the full salary, what would the M’s want in return? Where are the organizational holes?
The monster at the end of this blog.
There's only so much we know about how the organization plans to get to where they're going.
As you’ve noted, you feel that Figgins is likely to bounce back. The team believes so, too. They want to put a better team on the field more than anything and Figgins playing 3B in 2011 will help the cause. Only Zduriencik knows what he wants from whichever organization he’s dealing with but requesting extra talent at 3B and SS wouldn’t hurt.
The team’s ultimate goal is to create a pipeline of talent that can fuel the Major League club for years to come. It’s coming along pretty well but it obviously takes time to develop. The 2010-2011 Mariner teams were supposed to be stop-gap competitive teams while this is going on (from what I’ve interpreted anyway). With the 2010 team caving the way it did, 2011 looks to be the start of full-on development mode as they start establishing the team’s young core.
OK
You voted for the marginal return package. What does that look like?
I don’t expect you the know the A’s system… that’s on me. I’m just not sure what the Mariners want/need in return.
The monster at the end of this blog.
The Mariners probably want a bit more than Figgins is worth
as evidenced by their turning down a decent offer from Atlanta at the deadline.
by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 20, 2010 12:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Also the upcoming class of free-agent 3B is less than stellar.
It’s pretty much Beltre and…Beltre. (Or, I guess, Inge if you prefer your 3B all-glove and no bat. And Aramis Ramirez if you prefer your 3B all-bat and no glove).
Even coming off a down year and with that onerous contract, Figgins would be no worse than the second- or third-best 3B option on the market. And, with quite a few teams in need of a 3B, the demand may easily exceed Figgins actual value.
Would you mind explaining "actual value" in terms that include a hypothetical trade scenario?
I’ve already said I think Figgins is good for a bounce back season. And I’d be willing for the A’s to pay accordingly. Jeff mentioned Atlanta making an offer at the deadline… what was it and why do you think the Mariners found it light?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Actual value
You could make the argument that, even with the down season this year, Figgins is about a 2.5-3 win player going forward with a salary right about in line with that kind of performance. If you take a conservative approach and assume he’ll be closer to a 2-win player than a 3-win player, he’ll be slightly overpaid, though not by much. Either way, as onerus as the contract may be in length, the dollar amount isn’t particularly burdensome to a contending team looking to fill a need
When you take into consideration the current market for 3B along with the endowment effect (any kind of appreciable asset with be valued higher by the person who owns it), you’re probably looking at a package commensurate with a 3-win player, provided the Mariners don’t have to pony up any cash. For an example of the acquisition cost of a 3-win player during the offseason, consider the respective packages received for Curtis Granderson and Kevin Kouzmanoff. Granted neither are perfect examples – Kouz is a poor-hitting defensive whiz entering his prime making peanuts and Granderson was part of a mega three-way trade – but, if you use theirs returns as lower and upper bounds, the return was worth about a good prospect and a solid MLBer.
Hmm...
The Granderson deal included the Tigers sending Edwin Jackson to Arizona, which is how Detroit ended up with Austin Jackson and Scherzer at the end of the day. Remove Edwin from the equation and there’s no way Detroit ends up with anything like the “good prospect and a solid MLBer” baseline you project.
And having witnessed the Kouzmanoff trade… the package the A’s sent to SD was much less than you suggest.
However, if those are the deals you consider loose contemporaries to a potential Figgins package, then I’d suggest that an Oakland package consisting of a good prospect plus a bullpen arm would be a good starting point for a discussion.
How about Adrian Cardenas as the prospect? He just turned 23 and has pounded the snot out of AA pitching; still has to find his stroke in AAA. Can play 2B and 3B although he hasn’t shown the power teams tend to look for at the hot corner. Total Zone actually liked his work at SS but scouting reports all say he doesn’t have the range to start there full time.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Re the trades:
The Tigers sent out Granderson and E. Jackson and received Austin Jackson, Max Scherzer, and Daniel Schlereth in return. At the time that was a Top-50 prospect (Jackson per 2009 BA), a promising under-25 pitcher coming off two very good seasons (Scherzer), and a solid prospect in Schlereth. You could make a reasonable assumption that E. Jackson allowed the Tigers to get a markedly better deal than dealing Granderson alone but Granderson was the driving force of the deal itself. If you back-of-the-napkin halve that return and add about 10% more value (to account for Granderson having more value than E. Jackson), you get about a very good prospect and solid-good MLBer. That would be about the upper bound of expectations.
The Kouz trade had an OK prospect and a 1.5-win player heading to San Diego. If you use that as a lower bound of expectation, you could reasonably assume Figgins would net something in between each deal.
Setting aside potential rosterbation, you’d probably be looking at a back-end Top-10 organizational prospect and a cost-controlled MLBer
I agree that Granderson was the driving force behind that trade
But Jackson was not a Top-50 prospect at the time of the deal (per 2010 BA) and Scherzer was 25. Jackson was a better prospect at the time than Cardenas is now but Granderson was younger and cheaper (until 2012) and coming off a better year than Figgins is and still there’s no way the Tigers land a 3 WAR, 25 year old SP without including Edwin Jackson in the mix. Schlereth was a good prospect but he was strictly a relief arm with no potential as a SP.
I absolutely agree with you that a quality prospect needs to headline any deal, but I don’t see Figgins bringing in a 25 year old 3 WAR big leaguer as well.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Jackson was ranked #76 in the 2010 list but, I believe, that Top-100 came out after the trade.
So you could say that, based off his 2009 season, he would be no worse than Top-75 and not be entirely wrong. Either way, it’s semantics: Jackson was a top prospect in the minors, Scherzer was a 3-win pitcher under club control, and Schlereth and Coke were two prospects of note (both Top-10 organizational prospects in 2009). Yeah, you could argue that Jackson and Scherzer cancel each other out based on the previous season but you’d be hard-pressed to find any team that would do that deal straight-up. Just as you said there is no way the Tigers get that package dealing Granderson alone, there is no way they get half that package by dealing just Jackson alone. I felt I was being a bit conservative by estimating half + 10% of that deal (Which would net about a 2-win player [1/2 + 10% of Scherzer] and a good prospect [1/2 + 10% of Austin Jackson + Coke + Schlereth’s value]) but that sounds about fair value for Granderson alone in trade.
Let me ask you this...
Since not all Top-10 prospect lists are equal, would the prospect in question have to be from the A’s system or qualify for Seattle’s list? Last year BA ranked the M’s and the A’s as the 11th and 12th best farm systems in baseball (although I think the A’s got jobbed… call me biased).
‘Cause I can almost guarantee that Cardenas will make the A’s 2011 Top-10 list. I don’t know where he’d rank in Seattle’s system.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Admittedly I'm not up to date on the Athletics farm system
But, if we go by last year, I think a guy in the back-end of their Top-10 would probably be about a Top-10/15 guy for the M’s this year.
The A's farm system was riddled with disappointments like Michael Taylor and Michael Ynoa. But there's definitely some stuff to like at the top of the system like Grant Green and Chris Carter.
But like I said earlier, those disappointments could be a perfect “you sell low on your prospects while we sell low on Figgins” situation.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 20, 2010 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Ynoa is a disappointment at age 18 after having a reasonable showing in rookie ball.
These are facts, people. Facts.
This is snarkier than I intend. I don't think Ynoa is a failed prospect after throwing 9 innings and getting injured.
He’s a different case than Taylor, who disappointed with his production.
Not a failed prospect, but he took a step back.
I’m not saying you throw the towel on Ynoa, just that he’s an example of what wrong THIS year for the A’s farm system.
by Kenneth Arthur on Oct 20, 2010 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
I forgot to mention Phil Coke... poor guy, I imagine that happens to him a lot
As a quick and dirty way to look at the 3-way trade, we could say that Edwin Jackson and Scherzer cancel each other out.
That means Granderson brought the Tigers a non-Top 50 Austin Jackson, a meh RP (Coke) and a good RP prospect.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Just to throw a name out...
does Adam Rosales do anything for the Mariners? 4 more years under team control, a bit of pop and some defensive versatility. Maybe he has the talent to produce a 3 WAR season if slotted into the starting line-up… or maybe not.
The monster at the end of this blog.
OK...
Would a 28 year old position player with experience at 2B, SS and 3B coming off a 1.6 WAR year as a utility infielder and 4 more years of team control do anything for the Mariners?
The monster at the end of this blog.
by grover on Oct 20, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Reasonably, I think he's older than they would want
He’s just screaming “fluke season.” Trading Figgy just for the salary relief, for a 28 year old no-name guy, would be too much of a downgrade.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
Jeff disagrees with me
I must go commit seppuku.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
Fluke season?
It’s the first he’s gotten significant big league playing time.
What he could actually do with a starting role is largely unknown.
The monster at the end of this blog.
NOOOO!!!!!!!
It’s Willie Bloomquist all over again!!!
by Ike Clanton on Oct 25, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
If you're asking whether I would take Rosales for Figgins
the answer is absolutely yes
by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 20, 2010 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Figgins is probably the better player, but not by a ton, and Rosales is basically free
by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 20, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I guess if you consider the financial aspects of the deal, it's a wash.
But I think the market for 3B this offseason will drive up the bargaining price for Figgins to something more than Rosales. I definitely would have done that deal during the season but now… not too sure.
How many teams have the money to spend on a guy like Figgins, who isn't a sure bet?
It’s possible, but if Oakland came calling with Rosales tomorrow, and I were Zduriencik, I’d probably pull the trigger right quick.
by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 20, 2010 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, the Sox and the Tigers, especially if Beltre and Inge go elsewhere.
Plus, at an AAV of $9MM commited through 2013, the contract isn’t that ridiculous compared to what it would cost to acquire abot a 3-win 3B on the open market this offseason.
Word is...
Boston plans to shop for a 1B, moving Youk’s to 3B in the process. If they can’t land their 1B of choice (Gonzalez, perhaps?) then they’d pursue Beltre for 3B.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Fair point
But I’d like an opportunity to weigh in on the “bit more than Figgins is worth” part.
What was Atlanta’s offer?
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm in the "I don't want him to leave camp"
But that’s only because I think he’ll be better next year, and I don’t think he has much value anyway. We’re currently at a point where we have a player who has some offensive upside if he doesn’t suck and he has a contract thats going to pay him as if he were actually fulfilling his potential. I’d rather hold onto him and see if he can fulfill his potential than try to trade him when there really isn’t a market for Chone. He’s on the wrong side of 30, he’s expensive, his contract has three years left, and he sucked, what team would want Chone Figgins for anything less than an extreme bargain?
I know a lot of people want to jump ship on figgins, but what if he rebounds and hits .300 with an OBP near 380, leads the team in walks and stolen bases, and provides solid defense at third base. We’d be angry because we traded him.
But I think its less likely that we could trade him, get valuable pieces, get out from under his contract, AND have him still suck. Because let’s be honest, he would have to suck horribly next season for us to be happy we traded him.
.
He’s on the wrong side of 30, he’s expensive, his contract has three years left, and he sucked, what team would want Chone Figgins for anything less than an extreme bargain?
These would all imply that you would gladly trade him, but don’t believe you can. That’s different than an “I don’t want him to leave” stance. Also, you’re asking a pretty big “What if” (what if he gets a .380 OBP?) without considering the more likely alternative, and you’re forgetting that 2012 and 2013 still exist, and even if he gets a .380 OBP those years, do you believe he’s likely to repeat in 2012 and 2013? Remember, as you say “He’s on the wrong side of 30.”
...and now I'm here
I guess I tried to say too much in that comment.
I like Figgins, I really do, and I believe he could still put up All Star numbers. I do think his best years are behind him though and I believe that his value is so low right now that there is no way we can get out of his contract and get something valueable for him.
Basically I don’t think of it as “well, he won’t fit into our teams long term goals”. Figgins is a good, talented baseball player, over thinking where the team is going to be in a few years and trying to analyze whether or not a guy is good for the team can lead to bad decisions. It’s important to do, but at the end of the day you have to put your best players on the field, and as of right now, with our offense, he’s one of our best players.
I probably shouldn’t have said “he’s on the wrong side of 30”, i mean, yeah, he is, but I don’t want to sound like I don’t want him here.
He’s a good baseball player, this team needs good baseball players.
The problem with this line of thinking is that it relies too much on the belief that he'll bounce back.
You can say he probably will put up good numbers, but you have to include the very likely possibility that he will not when you weigh the options. There is nothing to indicate that this was a complete fluke year. He was never a perennial all star. He had pretty much one amazing year, and several average to slightly below average offensive years with some good defense, along with one or two completely terrible years. He’s also older and a righty in Safeco with dwindling power.
Your assertion assumes he will bounce back, but I’d argue that’s an incredibly faulty assumption. I think you can safely argue that he’ll bounce back to a 2 to 3 win player, but again – we’re talking about 3 years of a contract, not one year. If he’s an average player next year, he’s still a year older the year after that, and a year older the year after that. When you weigh all of it, I think it’s safe to say that getting rid of him and his contract is, if not the right thing to do, at least an acceptable outcome based on all possible information.
...and now I'm here
Point well made
sticks foot in mouth
…..
takes foot out
I agree with your last point, if very safe to say that getting rid of his contract would be a good idea all things considered, that money would be much better placed somewhere else.
by Sambearpig on Oct 22, 2010 1:58 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have no opinion on the question
but I’d like to commend you for writing a courteous and humble fanPost.
by Matthew on Oct 19, 2010 11:07 PM PDT reply actions 3 recs
I actually think the A's would make a good trading partner in terms of the return that Jack might want for Chone Figgins.
Underrated defensive-minded prospects and pitchers and the A’s had a lot of prospects who had down years, just like Figgins, so the trade-off could actually be somewhat fair. What I don’t see is the A’s taking on Figgins contract or Jack paying Figgins while he plays for a division rival. It just doesn’t seem like a classic fit. Also, I’d like to see Figgins stick around.
Adding Figgins means sending Kouzmanoff elsewhere
Kouz probably stands to make $5 million via arbitration in 2011 and $7 million in 2012, making Figgins only a slightly more expensive proposition for the A’s.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Probably, but they won't give him away, as evidenced by their talks with the Braves
Figgins no longer fits all that well into the Mariners plans, and considering his age, handedness, lack of power, and down year. They’d probably move him if the offer was right
Any idea what the Braves were offering?
’Cause I agree the deal would have to make sense for the Mariners.
The monster at the end of this blog.
In my fantasy land the A's are willing to take on the whole nut
Assuming, of course, the Mariners don’t ask for too much in return on the prospect side o’ things.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Honestly, I don't know if Figgins is the best option for the A's
They are kind of in the same boat as the Mariners. They need balance in their lineup, I think they’d be better off with a guy who can push runners around the bases.
I appreciate your concern for my beloved Oakland A's
I agree the A’s need more pop, but right now my focus is on improving the offensive production out of 3B without losing any of the defense. And Figgins fits that description.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I honestly don't think Figgy is THAT much of an improvement over Kouz.
Kouz had kind of a down year with the A’s, just like Figgins had a down year. But he’s got MUUUUUUCH more power potential, though he hits for less average.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
Also, Kouz was an excellent fielder. He was worth 2.9 WAR.
Figgins was only .6 WAR.
I think you’d be better off focusing on other areas. Kevin’s one of the only power guys in your lineup and an excellent fielder. He has as much (if not moer) of a chance of improving (i.e. returning to career norms) than Figgins does.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
Figgins played a great 3B for Anaheim
Not his fault the Mariners decided to stick him at 2B.
As for Kouz… his OBP for 2008 and 2009 was right around .300. He’s walked less than 5% of the time in each of the last 3 years. Sure, he’s got some pop but a .288 OBP kills.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm wondering about that
A couple of the popular defensive metrics seemed to say he played really well there, and the Angel fans, at least in 2009, thought he was terrific. But watching him play second this year makes me wonder how he could have been so good at third. Most players that can play one of those positions well can usually do reasonably well at the other. He could be one of those rare players that shine at third but can’t manage to hold his own at second. Watching him this past year though, I have a hard time picturing him picking it at third.
Absolutely, I think they need to move him back there. I think that’s their only shot at having him help them rather than hurt them.
by nathaniel dawson on Oct 20, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Third base is more about reactions, while second base is more about range.
(I would think.)
I once accused Robert of being Dewey N, because I didn't know it was Fogel. I suck with context clues.
by thehemogoblin on Oct 20, 2010 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions
And that's the funny thing.
He’s got great speed, so you would think he’d have great range at second. And with not having a cannon-type arm, you wouldn’t think third base is where he fits in. Those things together are the primary reasons (I assume) that the Mariners moved him to second.
It didn’t work. Maybe he has great reactions and a great first step, and he can compensate for a sub-par arm when he plays third.
I think we’re going to find out next year.
by nathaniel dawson on Oct 21, 2010 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions
His OBP is pretty bad, yes
But his career OPS and OPS+ is very similar to Figgins’s career OPS.
His OPS last year (a down year for him) was well below Figgin’s OPS (also a down year).
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
Problem with OPS/OPS+ is that it treats Slugging and OBP as equal
They aren’t.
And I’d need to see a Hell of a lot more pop from Kouz to live with a .300 OBP!
The monster at the end of this blog.
Well, his bat started recovering and it looks like he might have a productive 2011.
So, yeah, they will trade him.
A deal with Bos centered around Dice-K
with the caveat that Beltre leaves Bos…
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Slightly more than occasional, I'd say.
by Eyeball Kid on Oct 20, 2010 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
Which outstrips "ball" (21,749), hit (39,341), "run" (32,232), love (27,852), hate (17,105), and Matthew (46,341)
It’s even giving “Mariners” (52,290) a run for its money. Being Mariners fans, we say the word “fuck” almost as often as we say the word “Mariner.” Think about that for a moment.
by Decatur on Oct 20, 2010 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 9 recs
Are you sure that wasn't just for this season?
Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.
It does not include multiple instances of the word fuck within the same comment.
fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck counts as only one, hurting the statistics.
...and now I'm here
I was about to say the same thing. This means "Fuck" far outstrips "Mariners"
Because we rarely repeat “Mariners” in the same comment, but Fuck Posts feature the word prominently and repeatedly.
I am going to come into your house at night and rec up the place.
Oh damn it
I ment to say that I dont think the Mariners would trade him after one year, but if they were to, they would make the other team overpay.
I could imagine Eric Sogard, Henry Rodriguez for Chone Figgins, $10 million.
by jackyz on Oct 20, 2010 4:51 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
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