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Time To Acknowledge The Rumors

Word is the Mariners are on the verge of landing Casey Kotchman from the Red Sox. Alex Speier has it as Kotchman for a role player, a PTBNL, and cash, while Ken Rosenthal identifies the role player as Bill Hall. Nothing has officially happened yet, but it's beginning to feel inevitable.

Here's Kotchman in a nutshell:

  • 27 year old lefty 1B
  • Once highly-regarded prospect
  • .269/.337/.406 career bat, .324 wOBA
  • Plus defender, +5 < x < +10 or so according to several measures
  • Little power; 47 PA's per homer, longest homer 414 feet
  • Good eye, hits for contact
  • Decent but below-average player overall

Kotchman is a few years removed from his "big" 2007, a season that still saw him fall short offensively of Russell Branyan's 2009. The last two seasons he's settled in as a below-average bat with an above-average glove, making him something like a 1-1.5 win player. He is not an impact addition, and though his history and age give him the appearance of upside, realistically, even an average offensive season would come as a surprise. He's not going to drive in a ton of runs.

As such, he's underwhelming. Fans wanted to see Z land a bigger bat to fill the hole, myself included, and one of the most common responses to this that I've seen so far is, if Kotchman's all the M's are going to do, why not just go with Mike Carp?

It is necessary to understand that, though Kotchman's no star, he is nevertheless a better player than Carp. For one thing, Kotchman's the far superior defender. For another, Carp just struck out in 20% of his plate appearances in AAA last year, while Kotchman's struck out in 9% of his plate appearances in the bigs. There is literally nothing meaningful that Carp does, right now, that Kotchman doesn't do about as well or better. There's not a huge difference between the two players, but it comes out to a win or so, which is important. If you're mad that the M's didn't splurge for an extra win on top of Kotchman, then you should be satisfied that they at least added a win over Mike Carp.

It's also important that Kotchman is pretty cheap and easily replaceable. I don't know how much money the M's have left to spend, but Kotchman won't take up a whole lot of it, and he's no guaranteed season-long commitment - if he doesn't work out, or if someone better becomes available, then Z can make that move if he so chooses. We haven't committed ourselves to Casey Kotchman. We've committed ourselves to at least Casey Kotchman.

I'm not the biggest fan of this move, myself. Hall's no huge loss, but he was one of our only remaining right-handed bats, and there's a reason why Kotchman's available at the price. It's just a very small upgrade that, at the same time, kind of clouds a flexible roster that was just beginning to make sense. What I really take away from this is that the M's must've seen something in Branyan's medical reports they didn't like at all. The Mariners have needed a 1B from the beginning, and Branyan was open to coming back at a reasonable price. That we've settled on Casey Kotchman implies that the M's didn't see any way they could let Branyan play the field on a regular basis.

So here we are. I don't know how the outfield situation is going to sort out now that the potential righty platoon bat is gone, and I don't know the identity of the PTBNL or the amount of money changing hands, but I assume the M's wouldn't have done this if they didn't have it already figured out, and these M's are generally pretty good at figuring things out. So I'm a little confused, a little content, and a whole lotta neutral.

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Comments

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The money changing hands

I’m assuming this is part of the dough that Milwaukee sent here to pay for Hall’s 8.5M salary. If that’s the case, this can be seen as basically a salary clearing move, since us sending 2M to Boston still leaves us with a few mil left over.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2010 3:55 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

I guess I had Hall tabbed at 1.5M, since that's what he's actually costing us

and wanted to remind people that there’s all that Brewer money that ought to follow Hall to Boston. If we’re only sending part of it then it’s kind of a win for us, and the inclusion of a minor leaguer makes me think it’ll be less than the 7M they gave us.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2010 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Not A Huge Deal

If the M’s sent Hall, then they’re also clearing a roster spot. That means Kotchman is quite possibly viewed as a bench player, or half of a platoon.

My current worry is the over-population of lefties on the team. You can have too many left-handed hitters. Right?

by robbbbbb on Jan 5, 2010 3:58 PM PST reply actions  

No, but I did know Mike Piazza was.

Wink wink, nudge nudge, say no more…

SHOW FiFi THE MONEY!!!!

by PositivePaul on Jan 5, 2010 4:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Though I do like getting rid of Hall.

I voted him my least favorite Mariner in the poll. (Not for anything personal but for his performance). I’m scared of seeing him used in left field, it should be Langerhans backing up there.

by ARock on Jan 5, 2010 4:11 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I'm not gonna miss Bill Hall too much

And Kotchman is at least cheap/useful. I was fully prepared for Bill Hall to suck a big one this year and continue his multi-year decline. Kotchman is a solid but unexciting move. Hopefully they take the money they saved on this move (hopefully they saved $$ compared to a FA) and use it on a SP.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 5, 2010 4:16 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Our DH spot is currently occupied by two guys with large health risks,

And Jack brings in a 1B (presumably would get time at DH if one of Bradley/Griffey gets hurt) with a below average bat who gets alot of his value from fielding. I’d have expected this spot to go to someone with a better bat and average/below average fielding due to the likelihood of seeing DH time. Either there’s something else coming or I’m not sure I like this yet.

by Terminator X on Jan 5, 2010 4:25 PM PST reply actions  

I didn't like Bill Hall very much

Then again, I don’t like Casey Kotchman very much either. Whatever.

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by Corco on Jan 5, 2010 4:34 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah

neither of them are Ham Sandwiches, Icehouse, or Idaho, are they?

by chrisisasavage on Jan 5, 2010 9:14 PM PST up reply actions  

*Ham salad

ZSwing%: "The rate at which a player wife-swaps with Jack Zduriencik." --- Vatinius

by .Taylor on Jan 5, 2010 9:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Doh

I failed at Corco trivia

by chrisisasavage on Jan 5, 2010 9:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Kotchy gives the best post game interviews.

The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com

by 44FAN on Jan 5, 2010 4:42 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Hugs and kisses and all

But Scioscia’s way of nicknaming people by adding a Y to their name is both dumb and highly annoying.

Shieldsy? That is now longer than his name. That should not qualify as a nickname.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Jan 5, 2010 4:52 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

From a female perspective

Thumbs down. Just sayin.

Did you fall in love with Miguel Batista? And he rejected you?

by melenious on Jan 5, 2010 9:33 PM PST up reply actions  

At least we have someone to play 1st.

Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.

p.s. fuck you angels

by InSpokane on Jan 5, 2010 4:37 PM PST reply actions  

Offensively a wash at 1B/DH

If Kotchman starts at 1B and Bradley DH’s that’s basically a wash with last year’s 1B and DH offensive stats…only flipped. Bradley’s projected to put up an OPS similar to M’s 1B’s last year (around .840) and Kotchman is projected to put up an OPS similar to M’s DH’s last year (around .750). And Kotchman is a better defender than the M’s 1B’s were last year (7.6 vs. 3.3 UZR/150).

I’d hoped that after adding pop at DH, we could at least hold steady at 1B in WAR. But this move makes us better than we were before making the trade. Just not very much better.

Whelming, indeed.

by short on Jan 5, 2010 4:39 PM PST reply actions  

Figgins and Kotchman were close friends when they were Angel teammates.

So you got some plus chemistry with this trade.

The 2009 Pregame Picks Winner and Iron Man of Halos Heaven.com

by 44FAN on Jan 5, 2010 4:51 PM PST reply actions  

Big Deal

In a tickle duel, I’ve got Ichiro and Griffey over Figgins/Kotchman each day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Until Bradley goes ape-shit on them…

by tait644 on Jan 5, 2010 4:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I have Kotchman down for 11.0 WAR, so probably more like ~110

Fixed your post

ZSwing%: "The rate at which a player wife-swaps with Jack Zduriencik." --- Vatinius

by .Taylor on Jan 5, 2010 7:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Yay for chemistry multipliers!

They get a buddy bonus!

Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Jan 5, 2010 6:07 PM PST up reply actions  

I take it that Kotchman's contract comes up at the end of 2010?

Batted .393/.614/.464 for 2009 Diablos, #5 in OBP for PSSBL Rocky Division.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jan 5, 2010 4:57 PM PST reply actions  

`
He’ll be a free agent after 2011 should he be tendered a contract after 2010.

by Matthew on Jan 5, 2010 4:57 PM PST up reply actions  

And that's what I get for reading only the first article on the front page.

Batted .393/.614/.464 for 2009 Diablos, #5 in OBP for PSSBL Rocky Division.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jan 5, 2010 5:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Does this effectively cap of the M's pffseason?

Or is there another position that could be feasibly upgraded with what is left in the budget and the minors?

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Jan 5, 2010 5:18 PM PST reply actions  

Well it's all hypothetical.

The guess is that the team has a certain budget (in the range that you suggested), but it’s really more speculation than anything.

by SethGrandpa on Jan 5, 2010 5:24 PM PST up reply actions  

That would be incredible.

As to mean maybe not credible. It means we would be gaining something like 6 million dollars. I’d be flipping out over this deal if that’s true.

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 5, 2010 6:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Okay, that was dumb.

I was getting way too excited about the money thing. Kotchman is due some kind of raise in arbitration, so we’d be saving quite a bit less than that, maybe 3 or 4 million. Still, that would be pretty feakin’ unbelievable — upgrade from Hall to Kotchman and add a few million as well.

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 5, 2010 6:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think so

I bet they still make a move for a starting pitcher. Either they do the Lopez/Liriano deal (or something like it) and sign Hudson (or someone like him) or they hit the free agent market up for a pitcher.

by robbbbbb on Jan 5, 2010 5:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Uhhh ok,

I’m fine with giving up Bill Hall, but we’re settling on Casey Kotchman on 1st base? Milton Bradley had better beat the shit out of the ball this year.

This is kinda like the Morrow trade. Not bad per say, but not even remotely exciting.

All Hail Zduriencik!

by Goose on Jan 5, 2010 6:21 PM PST reply actions  

Time to change that sig of yours.

Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Jan 5, 2010 6:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Done.

A Few Hail Zduriencik!

by Goose on Jan 5, 2010 6:32 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I think this trade is less annoying than the Morrow trade

And I’d say this definitely improves the team more in 2010, without giving up as much (obviously depending on who the minor leaguer is & how much cash).

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo, Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!

by gregrabble on Jan 5, 2010 6:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah I agree

Just doesn’t feel like the best possible move available.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 5, 2010 7:25 PM PST up reply actions  

There's another away to look at this.

And of course, a lot depends on who the PTBNL is and how much money is changing hands. Zduriencik once was asked what his plan for building the team was and he said something to the effect of “adding talent whenever and in whatever way we can”. I think most people would think of Kotchman as a better talent than Hall, and this move would be adding talent to the roster.

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 5, 2010 6:26 PM PST reply actions  

I agree. Kotchman is definitely an upgrade over Carp.

And since we don’t know the details yet in terms of money or the PTBNL we will have to wait and see. I still trust in GMZ’s plan.

by TrustBaseball on Jan 5, 2010 9:18 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm starting to think

Jack Zduriencik : Angels :: Dayton Moore : Mariners

by I Lick Squirrels on Jan 5, 2010 7:52 PM PST reply actions  

Also,

.324 career wOBA, plus defender, not very long dingers, doesn’t strike out much…isn’t that basically just Loafie if he were moved to 1B? I’m not a big fan of the deal as it currently stands.

by I Lick Squirrels on Jan 5, 2010 7:57 PM PST up reply actions  

My first initial reaction to this deal was...

oh looks like Bavasi is still running things. I really don’t like this deal. I know Branyan has a bad back, but are you trying to tell me that you couldn’t get him for the same price? I was apathetic on the League for Morrow thing because I truly believe it was part of the Lee deal regardless of what Zduriencik says. But there was absolutely no reason to make this deal AND you are helping the Red Sox with their payroll which I have a hard time with! I’d rather have Lopez playing first and Hudson playing 2nd than this deal. Kotchman is a bust and will always be a bust.

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 7:57 PM PST reply actions  

While I may not think it's the greatest trade in the world

A) We don’t know how much we’re helping the Sox payroll, if at all.
B) Branyan may have cost more, was holding out for a two-year deal, and we don’t know the extent of his injury
C) To label Kotchman a bust because he was once a top prospect doesn’t convey his true value. He is only 27, so there’s always a chance he recovers, and even if he doesn’t, he’s shown to be a 1-1.5 win player. Failed top prospect, sure, but he still improves the team.

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 5, 2010 8:02 PM PST up reply actions  

I hope he fails his physical

I know it’s mean, but this is almost Ramirez for Soriano bad for me. I just figured 1st base was a place where we could get run production from and when we get a guy like Casey Kotchman I just think Pete O’Brien. It’s probably unfair, but I just think we’re punting 1st base.

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 8:13 PM PST up reply actions  

The unfortunate thing about how good Zduriencik is:

Any trade that’s not an immediate huge win for us is viewed as the second coming of Bavasi, when in fact, it’s more “ehh”.

by xero3k on Jan 5, 2010 8:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Even trading for Overbay would've been better

I know, more money. Whatever. Fuck them. Do you want to win a World Series or “compete”. I thought they wanted to win it all, but it really all comes down to dollars and cents. I think that’s really why I hate this trade. It’s strictly a money move.

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 8:27 PM PST up reply actions  

You can't ignore money.

This team has a budget it has to stay within.

by BrianL on Jan 5, 2010 8:27 PM PST up reply actions  

I know...

I just thought the team might decide this team was worth spending a few more million on to take it over the top. Now I now that’s not the case. After we traded for Lee and Bradley I was smelling that champagne. All we needed was a 1B/DH (or greedy me, both) that could mash and there you go. But nope, cheaped out.

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 8:34 PM PST up reply actions  

As a Jew, I am offended and would like a ban on all Jew jokes because they offend me.

ZSwing%: "The rate at which a player wife-swaps with Jack Zduriencik." --- Vatinius

by .Taylor on Jan 5, 2010 9:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually, Jeff will ask himself that question, since the questions will be submitted before-hand and chosen by the moderators.

Jack Zduriencik: …so we need to wait for the commissioner’s office to sign off whenever the trade involves cash. So that’s why there’s usually a bit of a holdup with deals like the Bradley-Silva one. Any other questions

Jeff Sullivan: Okay, here’s one for me. Why am I, Jeff Sullivan, a racist? Well…

by Decatur on Jan 6, 2010 12:32 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I don't quite know what you expected

But I’m pretty sure Branyan’s potential cost didn’t dictate his availability; the health of his back did.

Things can change, it’s only January. Don’t go into upheaval mode because of two low-key trade returns.

by cwel87 on Jan 5, 2010 8:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Or with the money saved by using Kotchman at first

We could get a better SP/2B/C. There is more than one way to win a World Series, and the offseason isn’t over yet.

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 5, 2010 8:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I hope you're right

I really don’t care what we do at catcher really. Unless we did something outrageous like trade for Mauer or something, I don’t really see where you could upgrade there. I want to see what Moore can do. Sure 2B could be improved, but keeping Lopez wouldn’t be the end of the world.

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 8:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Bigger than the Letterman gap

But we’re not getting Mauer. Any catcher out there who you might see an upgrade?

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 8:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah...

But isn’t he one of the worse defensive catchers in baseball? Like emergency catcher bad?

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 8:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Depending on the money situation

This may have been a simultaneous talent-increasing and cost-cutting trade.

by cwel87 on Jan 5, 2010 8:37 PM PST up reply actions  

If the team is living beyond its means (i.e. over-budget) before the season begins, it's never a recipe for sustainable success.

It damages the long-term prospects of the team and robs the GM of any flexibility during the 4 months + August trading season during the regular season. The market for particular baseball commodities (starters, relievers, second basemen, young players, whatever) can often change drastically from month to month, so if the M’s are over-budget, Zduriencik might lose out a Cliff Lee-caliber deal that he would otherwise make if he had some financial flexibility.

by Decatur on Jan 6, 2010 12:27 AM PST up reply actions  

'Fuck them'

Really? What short memories people have.

by Eyeball Kid on Jan 5, 2010 8:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh I remember...

I guess I just expected more out of Zduriencik. I just don’t like this move at all. Can’t help it.

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 8:36 PM PST up reply actions  

No one in the world can make me like this trade.

Has there ever been a player you’ve just seen play and you thought, why is this guy starting a big league game (I’m sure, Cairo, Vidro, many others)? That’s Kotchman to me.

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 8:25 PM PST up reply actions  

But he's worse than Branyan

that’s what I’m getting at. Yeah, if you’re just looking at who’s on the roster now, then it’s an upgrade.

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 8:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Well

Branyan will most likely be worse than he was last year.

by chrisisasavage on Jan 5, 2010 8:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I think what you are saying is that

you expected the team to get a 1B that would be a strength of the team. It was an obvious hole that we could use to drastically improve and it is relatively easy to fill. They chose to do a decent but underhelming move which improved the team but not to the extent you hoped.

Truthfully, I’m hoping somehow that Kotchman is not our starting 1B but then we wasted some money on our bench that we could be using for a SP.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 5, 2010 9:35 PM PST up reply actions  

That's exactly what I was trying to say...

You just said it better. I just flat don’t like the guy for no good reason. Hopefully he can perform up to his potential here and turn me, but he’s just such an average-ish guy with very little pop. No one I ever thought the M’s would try to acquire.

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 11:37 PM PST up reply actions  

I am not necessarily dissapointed in them trying the trade route

I would just hope Z would try pulling something with a little bit more upside, even if it brings some volatility. I wonder if we could pry Garrett Jones from the Pirates for even with regression he looks like he could be around a 1.5-2 WAR guy at 1B, while providing outfield backup. Heck, if you found a nice righty bat, like Jeff Bailey, to platoon with Carp, you could probably get the same value with less cost.

by tdot mariner fan on Jan 5, 2010 8:24 PM PST reply actions  

Basically impossible to judge this move

Until the other shoe drops. This move sets up another move – most likely, the acquisition of an outfielder. The M’s basically determined that Kotchman + New Guy > Available 1B + Hall. Until we know who the new guy is, can’t really know how this is going to work out.

by davidcameron on Jan 5, 2010 9:02 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

I was being facetious.

After Damon he was the only OFer I could think of. I don’t want him at all.

by katal on Jan 5, 2010 9:25 PM PST up reply actions  

PUJOLS!

Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.

by JAH on Jan 5, 2010 9:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Winn?

If he could bounce back hitting wise he could be a fantastic pickup.

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Jan 5, 2010 10:10 PM PST up reply actions  

So boring.

Wouldn’t be the worst, but I certainly hope Z has something more interesting.

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 5, 2010 10:12 PM PST up reply actions  

He'll be great someday.

The key being “someday.” And with the addition of Cliff Lee, it appears that we’re going for it this year, so if we can get a huge upgrade in that spot (while giving more time to Saunders in AAA to season, which he could use), we benefit quite a bit. You can expect Saunders to provide anywhere from .5 to 2 wins, with 2 wins being optimistic, ergo if you can get a 4 or 5 win player for left field, you do it, and just bring back Saunders in 2011 when he’ll have had more time in AAA.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 5, 2010 10:59 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

All Saunders has done is improve

At every step of his career. Better plate discipline, better power, etc. He’s shown he can adapt and excel, despite being younger than everyone else around him.

Let him get his ABs and be a 2-win player. Besides, getting a 4-5 win player isn’t easy, and we don’t have a lot of cash or prospects to get that guy. Who wants to pay what it would cost to get a 2-3 win upgrade?

by tait644 on Jan 5, 2010 11:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Expecting him to be a 2 win player his first full season in the majors is a bit of a stretch

It’s not outside the realm of possibility but it’s much more likely he experiences some hiccups while he learns to hit major league pitching. And there is a lot riding on the outcome of this season, it’s not like this is a rebuilding year where we can afford to take a chance on a newbie. The Cliff Lee trade necessitates going for it all.

by OlSalty on Jan 5, 2010 11:23 PM PST up reply actions  

I think you are missing the point entirely.

If we’re going for it this year, which is what the indications are with the Lee trade, then we only have this year. 2011 matters far less, at least right now. Saunders projects to be about a 1.5 win player, and that’s if he adjust to the majors, which he might not. He also has plenty of options left, and has spent almost no time in AAA, so he could actually benefit from going there (unlike some of the players during the Bavasi era that were spending too long there).

Because Saunders can easily wait – in fact, because Saunders may BENEFIT from waiting so that he can have more practice with better pitching in AAA – we can easily look to that position as a place to upgrade our roster. And if we can find a good upgrade – say a 3 or 4 win player – we have a considerably better chance of making the playoffs this year, AND our young player has extra practice so that when he is up in 2011, he has a better shot at succeeding against the tougher MLB competition.

Also, there’s this whole thing.

Saunders is still a prospect that has not yet shown he can succeed at an MLB level. Can he? Probably. In fact, highly likely. But the growing pains are going to be there, especially with only half a year’s experience in AAA. If we’re going for it this year, we can’t afford his growing pains – at least not this year. And since Bradley may be playing the position anyway some of the time, IF we can replace Saunders this year with someone that is a significant upgrade, we should.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 5, 2010 11:24 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

Why LF and Saunders?

We could find several spots on the roster where we can’t risk to run out a certain player. C, for example. Now 1B, with Kotchman. SS, perhaps. 2B, perhaps. Each spot is a potential place for improvment, and just as Saunders has options left, so to are there reasons why upgrading at those spots makes sense. Moore and Johnson have options. Kotchman and Lopez are cheap. Wilson gets hurt a lot.

And none have the “boom” potential of Saunders. We basically know what Kotchman and Wilson and Lopez are going to do. Why isn’t it a risk to run them out there when we could find good upgrades for them as well?

I do agree with those, whoever, who say LF is the likely spot to see an upgrade now. I’d have been fine with a 3-4 win 1B and Saunders in LF, with Bradley the regular DH.

by tait644 on Jan 6, 2010 9:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Saunders has "very good" potential for dirt cheap.

That’s a huge value for the team, but that doesn’t make him some ridiculously awesome player that’s going to go all Justin Upton circa 2009 on the league. He’s got a good chance of being very good for several of his 6 years of team control, nothing more. And, again, though I feel I shouldn’t need to repeat this, of all of the players we have, he will benefit the most from more time in AAA. He spent almost no time there at all, and expecting him to come and even be a league average player is questionable. Obviously if we could find some 4 to 5 win player for catcher we would, but since Brian McCann isn’t available, I’m not holding my breath. And upgrading LF doesn’t prevent us from upgrading catcher…..

I feel like I’m repeating myself over and over. See everything else I wrote to everyone else.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 6, 2010 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not sure we should characterize the M's as "going for it this year"

I’ve heard that thought mentioned a lot, but to me, it just looks like Jack is trying to make the team better every step of the way. He’s certainly made some big improvements since he got here, but it doesn’t seem like he’s been sacrificing future wins with the goal of competing for only this year.

I really view most of the moves he’s made as helping the team win now while also aloowing the team to be good in the future. I just don’t se a “win now at all costs” emphasis.

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 6, 2010 12:47 AM PST up reply actions  

Mortgaging the future is always a bad strategy.

But for the Cliff Lee trade to make any sense, this year has to be a top priority. GMZ clearly knows the limitations – the chances of us getting to the playoffs this year are decent, but by no means exemplary. But the Cliff Lee trade is quite literally pointless if we are not trying to win this year, ergo he needs to maximize this ball club as best he can to do so this year.

“Win Now at All Costs” is an extremely stupid general management practice, but I think it is pretty obvious he’s trying to upgrade the roster considerably right now, and I think it should be obvious to anyone after the Cliff Lee trade and the Morrow trade.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 6, 2010 12:59 AM PST up reply actions  

I should add that whether we are "going for it" this year is irrellevant.

Since the choices are as follows:

a) We play Saunders to give him a chance at the majors because we have no better options.
b) We turn down a significant upgrade just because we want to play Saunders, thus making our team worse this year than it could have been for no apparent reason during a season where we are only a few wins away from being division favorite with at least one of the best pitchers in baseball leaving after this year.
c) We get a significant upgrade at LF, send Saunders down to AAA where he benefits anyway, and both make our team better while still improving our chances for the future.

It would be foolish not to take advantage of C if given the opportunity.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 6, 2010 1:05 AM PST up reply actions  

Bradley

We traded Silva for Bradley, and Bradley will do better if he can frolic in the outfield grass every so often. Besides, dude could use a little seasoning in AAA.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2010 11:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, this too.

And if we are not going to play Saunders every day, benching him will stifle his development while wasting a team controlled year – and he will provide little upgrade on the bench compared to Langerhans, if any.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 5, 2010 11:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Did we come up with a pet name yet?

Did you fall in love with Miguel Batista? And he rejected you?

by melenious on Jan 5, 2010 9:58 PM PST reply actions  

Amazing.

Did you fall in love with Miguel Batista? And he rejected you?

by melenious on Jan 5, 2010 10:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Who do we have to bribe

To get that up on the display board at Safeco when he does drive one deep?

I mean, if “Funk Blast” got put on it clearly there isn’t a lot of institutional oversight going on, so it can’t be too hard if we can connect the idea with the right people.

by wandergeist on Jan 8, 2010 8:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, if we went the old school anagram route, he does have the most inappropriate anagrams I've ever seen.

ahem nasty cock
am choke scanty
am cocky hasten
say cock anthem
any sack cometh
can shock meaty
cant shaky come
cant yoke chasm
hymen sat a cock.

But I say we take the high road on this one and call him one of Kotch Rot, Kotch Tease, Hot Kotch, Kotch Rocket, Kotch Stain or Kotch Blocker, with every amazing play called a Kotch Grab. Let’s keep it high brow, guys.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 5, 2010 10:21 PM PST up reply actions   5 recs

Nice work.

I’m pretty partial to the highly inappropriate ones.

Did you fall in love with Miguel Batista? And he rejected you?

by melenious on Jan 5, 2010 10:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh, I remember when Deanna was still posting here sometimes

she mentioned Chase Utley (maybe with the middle name or initials) came out to something something homers studly

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2010 11:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Middle initial maybe

don’t remember the details. Cool story huh?

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2010 11:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Chase Cameron Utley

But I enjoyed it! It made me think, that’s for sure!

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 5, 2010 11:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, what's that all about Mariners?!

They buried the lead, big time. I had like 2 minutes to be happy before I heard all this Kotchman crap.

by basebliman on Jan 5, 2010 11:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Money

According to this article

Hall is in the last guaranteed year of a four-year, $24 million deal that will pay him $8.4 million next season. The Mariners, according to a major-league source, will pay $7.5-8 million of his salary

If true, the Mariners are saving $0.4-$0.9 mil by trading away Hall, while taking on Kotchman’s $3.5 mil. Essentially, it boils down to this: Is Kotchman at $2.5-3 mil better than the free agent 1B options?

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 6, 2010 4:12 PM PST reply actions  

Also

Beltre’s joke of a $5 mil option was tacked on simply to lower the AAV of Beltre’s contract, thus helping to put the Red Sox below the luxury tax cutoff.

Kinda seems like a loophole that needs to be remedied if you ask me.

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Jan 6, 2010 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

I am a bit interested in why Kotchman has little upside

To me, he fits the classic profile of a breakout candidate. I know that very few of his fly balls clear the fence, but is that because of a lack of velocity? Is that borne out by hit f/x? Now, I’m out of my depth, but I thought good contact hitters with patience and doubles power have a decent chance of adding home runs as they age.

by John Morgan on Jan 6, 2010 5:52 PM PST reply actions  

Only if they show evidence of getting stronger, and Kotchman has shown less ISO over time.

Also

It’s not too bad, but even his home runs were not that powerful. It’s true he might get more home runs out of his doubles thanks to things like Safeco and luck, but that’s not really “breaking out” so much as “getting lucky.” Also, players are known to be at their strongest…. pretty much exactly at Kotchman’s age. So it’s not impossible that he becomes outstanding, but based on everything we know about him, there are far too many reasons he won’t be, because bad luck wasn’t what led to his disappointing seasons – being bad did.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 6, 2010 6:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I would think that most people hoping for a breakout from Kotchman are looking for a higher batting average and on base percentage.

Maybe with a little bit more power as well, but I don’t think anybody’s hoping for something like 20-30 home runs. I’m sure everybody here would be more than happy with something like his 2007 season.

by nathaniel dawson on Jan 6, 2010 6:46 PM PST up reply actions  

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