A Note To Boston, To Us, And To Everyone
Would've been nice to get this up a day sooner, but oh well.
In theory, it is possible to be a perfect position player. A perfect position player would hit a home run in every trip to the plate, and turn every ball hit into his area into an out in the field. There could be no better player than a player who did each of these things.
In reality, there's no such player. Even the best players in baseball are staggeringly imperfect. For every Mark McGwire plate appearance that resulted in a home run, there were 12 that didn't. 1:43 for Derek Jeter. The best players don't even get hits 60% of the time, much less drill home runs. And then there's the matter of no one ever playing perfect defense. Ozzie Smith made 281 errors. The highest RZR since 2004 is .965. On a scale from 100% imperfect to 100% perfect, baseball players end up so far left that the right is inconceivable.
As such, every player in baseball is, to some degree, flawed. This is an undeniable truth. There is not a player in baseball that is without his flaws. It is also an undeniable truth that every player in baseball has a certain value, or 'true talent'. We can then think of any given player like this:
Value = Perfection - sum(imperfections)
Some imperfections will be great. Some imperfections will be small. Some imperfections will be tolerable. Some imperfections will be ugly. Any and every imperfection will have two qualities: (1) appearance and (2) magnitude. But for purposes of the equation, all we care about is the latter. What are the units of "Value"? Typically either Runs or Wins. In order to keep our equation consistent, then, we need the units to be the same throughout, which means the only thing we care about with regard to imperfections is how significant they are in Runs or Wins.
Now, we don't try to solve the right side of the equation. There's too much. It's far, far easier to solve the left and deduce the right instead. Not that solving the left is necessarily a walk in the park, but advances in sabermetrics have turned it into a feasible activity. What are the components of a position player's game? Hitting, fielding, baserunning, intangibles. We can't measure these with 100% accuracy - especially the last one - but we're pretty good at the first three, and the fourth is by and large considered by many to be pretty insignificant. So if you're willing to do all the math, and you do it right, you can come up with any player's true talent value that is presumably accurate to within a handful of runs.
Now, there are a million different ways for a player to accumulate value. He can draw a lot of walks, or hit a lot of singles, or hit a lot of homers, or play awesome defense, or steal eighty bases, or whatever. There is no one mold for a valuable position player. There are countless molds. What this means, in turn, is that there are also a million different ways to be flawed. You can be a slap-hitter. You can be a hacker. You can be a butcher in the field. We're talking about literally infinite combinations. If you have a hundred players with value X, they could take a hundred different paths to get there.
Some of these paths will be more appealing than others. Fans generally like power, contact, and discipline. Fans generally don't like free swingers or strikeouts. If Player A achieves value X with home runs, walks, and groundouts, while Player B achieves value X with doubles, defense, and strikeouts, Player A will generally be better-received, even though the two made equivalent contributions to the team. Fans want value, but they also want style. They want their players to both be good and look good. In other words, fans care about both qualities of imperfections: appearance and magnitude.
They shouldn't, though. Certainly not to the degree that they do. Think about what's important. All fans want is to win. It'd be nice to win with a team that always looked awesome, but every fan would rather win with ugly imperfections than lose with aesthetics. Ultimately, in the big picture, fans care about value, because value is what matters. All the other stuff, all the concern about what you wish someone would do differently - it's irrelevant. All that matters - all that matters - is overall value.
You can complain about the appearance of a player's imperfections if you want. Without a doubt, it can be frustrating when a guy boots a groundball, or strikes out on a bad pitch. Nobody likes it when their players screw up or appear to underachieve. But understand that to want a guy to do something differently is to want that guy to be someone else, because in a way, it's the flaws that make the player. And players seldom change. Change is hard. In the end, when you have a player who's pretty established as what he is, the thing that matters most is whether he makes a good overall contribution, and as long as he does, better to celebrate what he does right than complain about what he does wrong.
It's only fair.
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Great work Jeff, but a couple things.
First, maybe it’s just me, but I had to re-read the middle three or four times to get understand what #4 – maybe you should say, “1. Hitting, 2. fielding, 3. baserunning, 4. intangibles.” for clarity.
Second, perhaps you should put together a short list of posts describing why Beltre is a good player at the bottom of this article so visiting fans have instant access to them. (Alternatively, people could just throw some links up in the comments.)
Unfortunately Rob Johnson isn't actually good, or decent
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 5, 2010 11:52 PM PST up reply actions
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Rob Johnson figures out how to catch a baseball,
and becomes the best catcher in Mariners history
Jags? Playoffs?? 2009???
by JamMasterJesus on Jan 6, 2010 12:04 AM PST up reply actions
For God's sake, thank you.
Ryan Braun can’t play defense. Ichiro never walks. Albert Pujols doesn’t steal many bases. I hate them all.
Very good post
All that matters is how good a player is overall, not their talent in an individual skill area.
So we should consider Beltre for Figgins a wash?
2009 Safeco Field Record: 6-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 10-4
I was watching a video clip of Red Sox pundits talking about the Beltre deal.
And they seemed to be showering it with optimism and how good of a deal the contract actually is for them. I am glad people recognize that Beltre is actually good.
2009 Safeco Field Record: 6-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 10-4
by Fin on Jan 6, 2010 9:29 AM PST up reply actions
Over the Monster's front page currently features:
This :)
It’s a fun mental exercise to try to picture Lowell making these plays.
Griffey!
Would it be inappropriate to buy a Beltre Jersey?
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
Pink washes me out a little bit.
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
No it would be from his Seattle days
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
by InSpokane on Jan 6, 2010 8:30 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
What I get curious about is values changing based on team composition
I know this will be rare, but I think it happens.
The most obvious way this is true was mentioned by Dave on ussmariner recently: diminishing returns in the bullpen. Duplicating the type of arms you already have will have lower value. In that way a players value is partially dependent on other players on the team.
But this can be taken to more abstract places.
I keep wondering if our continued emphasis on improving defense will have any effect on attempts to sign Felix and Lee. Everytime a ball is hit off of those guys that should be a hit but turns into a hit, we can hope that the value of staying in Seattle moves up a notch in their mind. In this way it’s possible that defense has an increased relative value for Seattle than it does for other teams.
Nice post
You went in a bit of a different direction than I thought you were going. I thought you were making a point in response to the category of comments that sound something like this: “The Mariners need more pop in their lineup to be a contender.” But by the end it was clear you were responding to comments like this: “Beltre sucks. He is a hacker.”
I think the middle comes off as a bit circular. “All fans want is to win.” “All that matters – all that matters – is overall value.” You make arguments about whether “overall value” or “style” is the important metric in evaluating a player. But that is not the point over which others would quibble. It is the connection between your version of “overall value” and winning wherein lies the argument.
Now, granted, you and others have typed many words on the connection between your version of overall value and wins. Indeed, your version has become my version, and the version of most who have given it serious open-minded thought. But still, anyone who believes they have made a supportable argument when they say “Beltre sucks. He’s a hacker” would not agree that their metric is style as opposed to “overall value.” Such a person is more likely saying that hacking hurts the team and the other stuff he does isn’t worth it in the win column.
Accordingly, this post makes more sense as a rant to the already converted than an attempt at conversion. Not that there is anything wrong with such a rant, and most of the audience here is, of course, converted.
This post makes me a bit curious, though, about the “Mariners need more pop to be a contender” line of thought. I understand that World Series champions come in all shapes and sizes. I also understand that preventing one run is at least similar in win probability added to scoring one run. And that scoring an extra run by walking more is the same as scoring an extra run by hitting more home runs. I wonder though, whether the value of various tools (contact, power, plate discipline, defense) are context-dependent. That is, whether a power hitter is more valuable to a team with one lineup around him versus a team with another lineup him. There must be some difference. I just don’t know which way it cuts or whether the difference is significant to matter.
Does the lack of a power hitter make adding a power hitter relatively more valuable? Does it go in the other direction? Is this worth considering? Is the question already answered some place else? I would be curious to hear MagicMike’s thoughts on this.
by Attractive Nuisance on Jan 6, 2010 9:27 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
Incidentally
This post was deliberately written to be open to several interpretations, Beltre and the current Mariner roster among them.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 6, 2010 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
Funny, as I was reading it I had the feeling
that Boston, us, and everyone might each benefit in their own ways from the post.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 6, 2010 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
Jose Lopez
Is actually the first person I thought of while reading this.
by edgar is good on Jan 6, 2010 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
note to boston
“…the whole has properties not only greater than but unpredictable from the sum of the properties of its parts.”
Buckminster Fuller
“No matter how many people you get with potential and skill…. if these people you get are not good people I feel the team will not be successful. Contrary to that I think if you have a team of a bunch of good people, if you lack in these areas such as skill and potential you have a lot more of a chance to have a good team.”
Ichiro
In response to your …Note to Boston…: First, I think Snuffleupagus is onto something.(Even if he does say “…everytime a ball is hit off of those guys that should be a hit but turns into a hit…”) Thinking that the value of the team is a collection of the players’ vaules reminds me of my first encounter with software manuals for BBSs. The software engineers evidently though that if they described all the various parts, the user would understand how to set the thing up. But any non-engineer user knows that you actually have to play with it to understand it.You have to understand how the parts interact, or don’t. No doubt there exist mathematical tools for dealing with synergy, but I’m not sure whether sabremetrics employs them. I think guys like Griffey and Sweeney have value that may be measureable, but has not been measured because it lies in their roles as catalysts.
Second, I disagree with the notion that, as a fan, all I’m interested in is wins. If that were the case, I would never have to go to a game, watch it, listen to it, or read descriptions of it I’d just check to see if it was a win or not. So value isn’t measured in wins. It’s measured in satisfaction. I’m not saying that isn’t quantifiable, but it’s certainly trickier to quantify. “…fans care about both qualities of imperfections: appearance and magnitude.” Don’t tell me I “shouldn’t”. I’m a fan, not an abacus. If all fans care about is wins, explain the Cubs.
.
I think guys like Griffey and Sweeney have value that may be measureable, but has not been measured because it lies in their roles as catalysts.
Alternately it might not have been measurable because their value as catalysts doesn’t amount to much.
by Graham MacAree on Jan 7, 2010 9:55 AM PST up reply actions
Wins obviously aren't the *only* thing people care about
They’re just by far the most important thing. The 2008 Mariners had Felix and Ichiro. Watching those guys is awesome. The team won 61 games. Something tells me people would’ve enjoyed a playoff team without Felix and Ichiro just a little more.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 7, 2010 10:55 AM PST up reply actions
There was a cool article on THT a while back
That tried to show fans value offense a lot more than defense so if you want to make a team that makes a lot of money it is better to have a good offense than a good defense. There was some quantification that was done. This post made me think of this article but I couldn’t ever hunt it down.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 7, 2010 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
Hmmm. I remember how “Olerud made the rest of the infield better because he was awesome”. Does general infield defensive goodness count towards a run or two? Is it quantifiable? Are there some platoons we could look at that might give us something?
Its really hard to quantify this.
The effect is probably pretty small. Maybe a few runs. People have tried but its just really tricky to figure out and quantify. Its probably not much though. Most the defensive value comes from fielding groundballs and line drives though because there are so many more than tough throws they need to dig out.
Also, we like people to use the subject line as a general policy.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 7, 2010 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
Errors on a throw are generally charged to the thrower, even if the first baseman should have caught it.
If I am not mistaken, that is why that belief exists. It takes away errors. It could actually make a big difference theoretically, but it isn’t really something to expect.
...and now I'm here
If we're talking about a 1B's ability to receieve throws, it can have a range of about five runs +/- to average.
So, not huge, but meaningful.

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