Eric Byrnes, Cont.
This afternoon, the Mariners at least addressed what appeared to be one of their most pressing concerns by picking up Eric Byrnes for a year at the league minimum. With luck, Byrnes solves our lack of a right handed outfielder to platoon with whichever one of Michael Saunders and Ryan Langerhans makes the big club out of spring training. Before going more in-depth as to Byrnes's abilities, let me make clear that he is essentially free, and if he doesn't work out, he's very easy to let go. The Diamondbacks are responsible for the vast, vast majority of his contract, and if the Mariners release him and he signs with another team, they just assume our burden. In a sense, Byrnes costs no money at all, because what we're paying him is the minimum we could play anyone on with a place on the team. In other words, this absolutely does not preclude the team going a different direction if something interesting comes up.
What Byrnes does cost is Tommy Everidge, who is bad. I wouldn't worry about that one. Everything clear regarding opportunity cost, etc? Good.
So, Eric Byrnes. Let's start with the bad, since he did get released by Arizona after all. There are more than a few reasons they didn't want him around anymore. He gets hurt a lot. When he's hurt (he's torn both hamstrings in the past two years) he tries to play anyway, and is unsurprisingly terrible, leading to him getting his playing time cut due to his poor performance (apparently this is more manly than just sitting out when you're hurt). He's barely seen any time with the Diamondbacks over the past two years, which pissed them off because they're paying him lots of money to be awful on the bench and pisses him off because he has the 'I'm Eric Byrnes, bitch!' thing going on. So, performance, injury, and attitude problems. Did I mention he won't be able to help at all in the infield? He's an outfield-only guy.
His numbers over the past couple of years are not exactly impressive, either. .206/.272/.369 in 52 games in 2008 would fit in wonderfully with our lineup that year, and his on-base percentage actually contrived to get worse last year with a lovely little .226/.270/.393 line. And just when you were all starting to forget how Yuniesky Betancourt and Kenji Johjima popped the ball up all the damn time, Eric Byrnes has occaisionally given them a run for their money. Not individually, combined. Infield fly balls don't often go for hits, and almost 15%(!) of the balls Byrnes puts in play are popped up. He's not the sort of guy you want to see with a runner on third and less than two outs.
So, uh... the good. Well, once upon a time, Eric Byrnes was a pretty nifty, if overrated player. He's above-average defensively, if prone to both absurd flashiness and some amusing defensive gaffes, and he was a pretty good hitter prior to 2008, routinely posting wOBAs in the .340-.360 range with the Athletics and the Diamondbacks. When he was hitting well, he had ok plate discipline and made pretty good contact, even hitting for power on occasion. If his decline is more injuries than talent (at 34, he's not young, but he shouldn't be at falling-off-a-cliff territory yet), and he's healthy, he's a pretty good player. And even when he's not that healthy, he can be of some use to the team. Observe:

Figure 1: Eric Byrnes platoon split, 2006-2009
Byrnes has a massive platoon split. I've highlighted the last few years, but it's true of his whole career. He torches left-handed pitching to the point that even when he was hitting for a .206 average overall, he OPS'd .817 against them. There's room in the roster for a platoon out in left field, and if both sides of it can put up average defence and hit a little bit against opposite-handed pitching, we can squeeze some production out of the position. Would I have preferred someone better? Yep. Do I think the Mariners should keep looking to improve in left? Of course. But honestly, if they want to focus on something else (like another decent starter and, I don't know, going to a six-man bullpen), I wouldn't be too annoyed with the way left field has turned out.
Also: Stone has some good quotes from Byrnes in his latest post. Guy says all the right things.
1 recs |
65 comments
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Comments
Actually, he is better than free
You are right, Seattle will be paying the MLB minimum. Larry Stone says they will be paying him $400,000. Anyone else that the Mariners would add to the roster would cost more than $400,000 (Hell, I think Langerhans is getting $525,000).
So, the Mariners are filling a roster spot cheaper than any other real RH option.
I really like this move.
He should easily wOBA .340 against LHP and I see no reason why he shouldn’t be an average to slightly plus glove in LF.
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I like it for the fact that he isn't killing the payroll by being on it.
Especially if he is able to get back some of his form.
by seattle_since_81 on Jan 29, 2010 8:28 PM PST up reply actions
Even a pessimistic projection for a Byrnes/Langerhans platoon would have our LF about average over the course of a season.
They’re also virtually free and we will have an above-replacement backup option in AAA in case of injury. It will also allow Bradley to DH most of the time.
I’m guessing starting PT will be something like this (ignoring off days or accounting for injury)…
vs LHP:
LF: Byrnes 100%
DH: Bradley 100%
vs RHP:
LF: Bradley 50%, Langerhans 50%
DH: Bradley 50%, Griffey 50%
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Except Bradley isn't going to play 100% of the time.
by lokiforever on Jan 29, 2010 10:08 PM PST up reply actions
If you ignore off days and injuries risk, Bradley is penciled to be a full time player.
...and now I'm here
So you're saying Bradley is not manly?
We should tell him that.
by lokiforever on Jan 29, 2010 10:38 PM PST up reply actions
Dealing with Bradley is a series of Chutes and Ladders.
...and now I'm here
If Wak wasn't in charge, I'd be afraid of the clubhouse turning into a Barrel Full of Monkeys with Bradley in there..
I mean we have a number of hotheads in the clubhouse now but if the chemistry turns sour I think we can Guess Who the clubhouse cancer is. Anyway, if Byrnes and Bradley are healthy all season I’ll be in Candy Land, if one gets majorly injured our season could be in Trouble, if both are then it might just go KerPlunk.
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I don't think platoons usually work out that perfectly
It always happens that the platoon doesn’t always have the platoon advantage because of RP and days off and stuff.
I’d say an 80% probability of having the advantage is a pretty well run platoon. For example if Byrnes has 100 PA, then he will probably face RHP 20 times.
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 30, 2010 5:16 PM PST up reply actions
That's the way it usually works out.
Not enough bench spots to make it any more effecient than that.
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 30, 2010 6:46 PM PST up reply actions
One thing that has always bugged me is the attitude that playing while hurt is manly.
Why is it manly to play at 75% if there is a back that is better than your 75% but not as good as your 100%? I don’t understand when announcers say that a player is being a great player playing through pain (i.e. when the announcers said that Brett Favre would come back out on one leg, or something along those lines, if he had to during the Saints-Vikings game on Sunday).
by seattle_since_81 on Jan 29, 2010 8:27 PM PST reply actions
I can see it in football...
Usually the difference between starting quarterback and backup is huge. Especially if it’s an arm guy, and not a mobility guy, then going back out with a gimpy leg makes some sense.
In baseball the replacement is usually much closer to the starter in terms of impact on the game.
Also the individual game doesn't matter as much...
In baseball missing a week is no big deal. Missing a month isn’t good, but doesn’t really hurt the team all that much. So better to step down and recover as fast as possible. In football every single game is important, and once you reach the playoffs they’re critically important.
The problem is baskeball players think they're basketball/football/hockey players.
Playing hurt in baseball has a much more dramatic impact on your playing and the chance of re-injury (which is odd for a predominately non-contact sport). This is especially case for pitchers. Pitching through an arm/shoulder injury is the dumbest thing in sports that consistently happens.
It's only manly if you're still helping the team...
…and if you’re not likely to further injure yourself by playing on it.
Take Kobe Bryant for example. The dude is banged up pretty bad, but since he believes, after a doctor’s consult of course, that he won’t aggravate the injuries further by playing through them, he’s playing through the pain.
Also, a 75% Kobe Bryant is still better than 95% of the rest of the NBA
I guess its more about playing through pain being manly, as opposed to playing through injuries.
I'm always thinking one step ahead. Like a carpenter, that makes stairs. -The Office
by Jonny Somers-Harris on Jan 29, 2010 8:57 PM PST reply actions
Baseball is a game of such precision that a player that's hurting is probably going to suck.
In reality anything beyond basic aches, cuts and generic pain that every athlete experiences should probably result in a caring for it rather than sucking and hurting the team.
...and now I'm here
Obviously I'm agreeing with you in essence.
...and now I'm here
I really love the backgrounds you've been putting on these graphs.
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by Griffin Cooper on Jan 29, 2010 9:01 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Great post, Graham.
I’ve seen so many panties in a wad over this, I’m tired. And I like panties. Just not on men who follow my favorite sports team who happen to think this is the end-all/be-all move. This was safe, incredibly cheap and umm… incredibly cheap. Nothing to see here – he either makes it out of ST, or he’s off to the bowels of the NL, where shit-hitters go to thrive. Where is the problem? Oh – right, that other bald fucker who has no place in baseball. We’re past that now. Thank god. STOP THINKING THIS IS JACK’S LAST MOVE!!! I know it’s easy for folks in Seattle to think yhe worst, but COME ON. THINK.
Illegible
I agree
Byrnes is the zero-cost, low-risk option they can sit on while they wait for bargains on the free agent market as Spring Training looms, or even a few months into the season when the laggard teams decide to cut bait and trade away a player here and there. He gives them a backup plan if the Damons of the world decide to sit out the season rather than take a cheap contract, and that gives the M’s leverage when they talk to them. He also can function as a placeholder until teams like the Nats and Royals inevitably fall out of contention and start to offer up the guys they clearly want too much in trade for right now.
And who knows, maybe he’s finally truly healthy and motivated and he actually performs. Or maybe the switch of leagues and stadiums puts a fork in him, and the team cuts him in the first couple of months. The first is unlikely, but would be a win; the second is very possible, but would be no great loss. There probably isn’t much upside here, but this is about as cheap a backup plan as you could possibly ask for, and it in no way interferes with the team’s attempts to find someone better, nor does it impact the payroll in any way that hurts their ability to acquire a #3 starter.
by wandergeist on Jan 30, 2010 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
Oh Eric
“My legs are as healthy as they’ve ever been. II’m excited to put together a full season and help the Mariners win a lot of games.”
No, no they’re not buddy. Before the hamstring came completely detached from the bone, yes, they were as healthy as they’ve ever been. Now, not so much.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 30, 2010 9:40 AM PST reply actions
Would you rather he say he's old and broken and doesn't know how to get out of bed in the morning without pain?
I'd rather he shut the fuck up and follow Ichiro's stretching routine every day
But if he does have to talk maybe he could stop short of making obviously untrue and perhaps dangerous statements like that. If he were to say my legs are fully healed and now that I know I’m not bionic I’m going to take better care of them and not play through muscle pulls I’d be much much happier.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 30, 2010 10:34 AM PST up reply actions
Doe it really matter?
I believe that 95% of all player interviews are fluff anyway and I treat them as such. Everyone (in all walks of life) exaggerates their accomplishments, their strength, their size (if you know what I mean), their health, etc.
His words will soon be forgotten…….what were we talking about again?
Honestly I don't particularly care since he'll be a part time player anyway
but if he means what he says here it’s dangerous. The way he tore his hamstrings in the first place is by ignoring and playing through a milder injury. If he’s of the mind set that he’s as healthy as ever then he’s liable to do it again.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 30, 2010 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
For someone who doesn't particularly care
…you’re sure in a lather about this.
by wandergeist on Jan 30, 2010 12:24 PM PST up reply actions
You're misreading the comment
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 30, 2010 3:04 PM PST up reply actions
So the bad news is that in his career he has exactly one opposite field home run
and when he’s not pulling the ball down the line it’s going to Charybdis the left center field power alley. The good news is that his average true HR distance per hittracker (so from 06-09) ranges between 391 (08 – no hammies) and 410 (07 – healthy). His average HR distance in 07 was 410. That’s.. that’s really far.
For reference, Lopez averaged 378. 378. and 383 the last several years; also for reference, Sexson’s average distance in 06, his last good year and the first that we have HT data for, was 401 (it was less the following year). As a reminder, this is ‘true’ HR distance, which takes into account atmospherics, wind, and spin.
This isn’t to say that he will be unaffected by Safeco. I just wanted to point out that his power leaves some room for error.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 30, 2010 10:01 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
He obviously doesn't appear to have the same strength as Sexson.
Is this mostly due to trajectory on the ball hit? As in he line drives it at a more optimum angle?
That would seem to disagree with his propensity for pop-ups.
I would guess bat speed and wrists can make up for strength.
An alternate pseudo-explanation is that hittracker is an imperfect measurement tool and Byrnes has been the beneficiary of observer error, but that doesn’t help anything really.
Whatever the reason, if you trust their numbers, Byrnes’ home runs are, on average, just a tad shorter than Alex Rodriguez’ or Matt Holliday’s.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 30, 2010 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
It works much better when you're talking about the away team though
Then you can have Guti as Scylla
I prefer to think of Gutierrez and Ichiro
As The Boreads, Calais and Zetes
by wandergeist on Jan 30, 2010 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
The wogs begin at Franklin.
There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
Bradley better not hear you calling him that.
Byrnes, on the other hand… it kind of fits.
by wandergeist on Jan 31, 2010 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
How much will he even be hitting in Safeco, though?
Against RHP the lineup presumably features Bradley in LF and Griffey at DH, so it would only be in the minority LHP case that he’s the starting LF. Assuming Bradley isn’t hurt, of course (though if he’s hurt badly enough to go on the DL they may bring Saunders up).
As to his distance (assuming Hit Tracker is accurate) — I haven’t spent any time examining his ABs, but maybe he’s one of those guys with an “uppercut” swing that gets a fairly binary set of results: against most pitches it results in a pop-up, but every so often it launches it a long, long way.
by wandergeist on Jan 30, 2010 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
Yawn
Whatever, sounds like they’re opting for a Bradley/Byrnes/Langerhans rotation in left. Just setting up Saunders’ triumphant mid-season return/ascent to the big club.
So should we call him a screaming Alfa?
There are two ways of being happy: We must either diminish our wants or augment our means - either may do - the result is the same and it is for each man to decide for himself and to do that which happens to be easier.
- Benjamin Franklin
Best mariner promotion ever
Eric Byrnes Plays With His Hair on Fire Day"
I guess it might smell after the first few innings but I’d go.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 30, 2010 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
Flaming bobbleheads
It’s too bad smoking accessories are a no-no. Having a Pez-dispenser-like Eric Byrnes lighter (sponsored by Zippo!) would be awesome.
It’s also too bad he cut his hair: back in the day he and Khalil Greene were front-runners for the All-Spiccoli Stoneriffic Surf Team. Eric Byrnes signature boardshorts probably wouldn’t sell, but Bongs (“For Display Purposes Only”) would be hilarious. Maybe we can get Taco Del Mar to do a sly “Munchies Night” promo instead?
by wandergeist on Jan 30, 2010 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
Wow. This rivals the Lawn Dart.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 30, 2010 3:06 PM PST up reply actions
Get it on the sidebar asap!
At least at Safeco Byrnes will have the wall down there to protect him from himself.
But I’m not sure what will help the M’s other leftfielder protect himself from, well, whatever this is.
Byrnes actually prevented a run from scoring with that move.
by Drederick Tatum on Jan 30, 2010 6:57 PM PST up reply actions
He fucked up..
like a fox!
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 31, 2010 5:46 AM PST up reply actions
Being lucky is often better than being good.
Shame you can’t rely on it. Unfortunately, Bavasi never figured that out.
by wandergeist on Jan 31, 2010 11:46 AM PST up reply actions
What percentage of Bradley's games will he play in LF?
I know it probably depends a little on his health but we expect to see him out there sometimes right?
I'm guessing he'll get about 30% of the starts out there.
Mostly against righties when Griffey’s DH’ing. Otherwise, it’ll be Langerhans/Saunders with Bradley at DH. Byrnes would get almost all the starts against lefties, with Bradley as the DH.
Midway through the season, that could change a lot depending on injuries and who’s hitting/who’s not.
by nathaniel dawson on Jan 30, 2010 6:56 PM PST up reply actions
Just saw this in the sidebar on FG
Eric Byrnes Friday, January 29, 2010
News: Byrnes signed a one-year contract with the Mariners on Friday, the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
Analysis: He’ll be competing with Milton Bradley and Franklin Gutierrez for at-bats in the Mariners’ outfield. Byrnes has played just 136 games over the past two seasons due to a variety of injuries, but could be a bounce-back candidate if he’s able to stay healthy.
Something in that blurb doesn’t belong.
Clearly
I expect that was one of those “telephone game” cases where the guy heard something like “competing with the other corner outfielders” or “with Bradley and that other guy, whatshisname” and went back and looked up the roster and went “hmm, other outfielders, obviously not Ichiro, ergo Franklin Gutierrez!”
Or the writer is just a clueless idiot. But I try to be charitable when possible.
by wandergeist on Jan 31, 2010 11:50 AM PST up reply actions

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